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今天收到RPDATA群发的邮件,其中有段房产投资时机的分析,有利于了解澳洲房产走向.请看以下(自己翻译的,就是大家看的方便点而已,翻的不好的地方不好意思啦): 2008 - Is this the year of the Investor? 2008年是不是个投资年度呢? Investment in Australian real estate is still below the peak levels achieved four years ago. With rental vacancies at all time lows and weekly rental rates increasing, not to mention share market volatility, 2008 could be the year real estate investors return in numbers. 目前澳洲房产投资还停留在4年前所开启的高水平之下,更不要提租房空置率历史新低,租金节节升高,股票市场起伏不定等等因素之下, 2008年有可能看到房产投资者大量回到市场. The level of investment in Australian real estate remains below the peak levels achieved during 2003 when $7.6 billion was committed to investment housing loans during the month of October 2003. The 2003 peak in property investment occurred at the height of the property boom, and investment in the market dwindled rapidly after this period. 如今澳洲房产投资市场低于2003年达到的最高水平, 2003年10月曾达到历史性的76亿元贷款投资水平. 当年的高起点源于房产市场高度增长, 而此后的投资市场又很快走入低迷状态.  Since the October ‘03 peak, property investment levels have struggled to recover. Apart from the month of June last year, when $8.1 billion worth of investment finance was committed to properties across the nation, the level of finance committed to investment properties has remained low compared to 2003. 从2003年10月的最高点以后, 房产投资市场一直萎靡不振. 除了去年6月份曾达到全国总量81亿的短暂性投资资金高点外,市场一直未能恢复到2003年同等水平. The June 07 surge in property related investment activity is likely to be a consequence of the June 30th superannuation cut off. On this date the window of opportunity closed for one off tax free deposits of up to one million dollars into superannuation accounts. Many property owners would have capitalised on this opportunity, selling their home to place the proceeds into superannuation. 07年6月份所达到的投资活动高点很有可能与当年6.30号退休金返还政策截止日期有关. 当时可以一次性地在退休金帐户里免税投入高达1百万,此政策再无重复, 致使众多房产持有者抓住此次机会,出手房子套得资金转而投入养老金帐户.  The owner occupier market also peaked during the same period in 2003, however a recovery in owner occupier spending was comparatively swift, with the level of finance commitments taking just over a year to recover. Since the recovery, finance commitments for owner occupied dwellings continued to trend upwards. 自住房市场在2003年同期也达到最高水平, 但自住贷款金额却能迅速回复, 可以看到一年之内就又达到同等程度, 自此后此市场一直保持有力的上升势头. One of the primary reasons for property investments levels being slow to recover is the performance of the share market. Between the beginning of 2004 and end of 2007, the S&P / ASX 200 index had doubled. The strong performance of the share market has been a major distraction for property investors. An equal disincentive was the lackluster performance of the Australian property market between 2004 and the end of 2006. Perth and Darwin were the only true performers while other capital city markets were largely flat or slipping backwards. 房产投资市场低迷的另一主要原因源于股票市场. 从2004年初到2007年底, S&P / ASX 200股票指数增长翻翻. 股票市场的甜蜜回报吸引了很多房产投资者, 而同时房产市场 在2004年到2006年底的原地徘徊也影响着投资者的信心. PERTH和DARWIN是仅有的两个市场回报较好的大城市,其他城市则大都挣扎在同期水平甚至有些下滑的走向.  Recent volatility in the Australian and international share markets is likely to influence investors to take more notice of the local real estate market. While capital growth is likely to peak early this year, rental yields should continue to improve, enticing more investors into the market. Rental yields are improving due to historically low vacancy rates across the nation pushing weekly rental rates upwards. Further interest rate rises predicted during early 2008 will place further pressure on the rental market as more and more potential buyers remain in the rental market due to affordability constraints. 最近澳洲及全球股票市场的急跌影响了投资者的心态,他们开始关注本地房产市场. 虽然房产资本增长在今年有可能达到历史高点, 租金回报率却可以继续得到很大的提高, 吸引更多的投资者进入市场. 租金回报率史积月累于全国性的低空置率, 周租金持续上扬. 更甚者是,2008年初预测的加息更给租房市场巨大压力, 因为资金承受力的限制, 越来越多的潜在购买者只能停留在租房市场, For investors looking to enter the market, there are plenty of opportunities available. The strongest rental yields are generally located in the outer suburbs where weekly rental rate growth is outpacing growth in property values. For those investors chasing capital growth, last years top performer, Adelaide, is likely to remain the number one growth market during 2008. Adelaide provides comparatively affordable price points, a growing state economy and a burgeoning resources sector. Over the medium term, Brisbane is likely to be the best performer due South East Queensland’s ongoing strong population growth, large infrastructure projects and relative affordability compared to the Sydney market. 对于想进入市场的投资者来说有很多机会. 最高的租金回报地往往是城市外郊区, 因为租金上涨的程度远远大于房产增值的程度. 而对于想在房产本身增值回报方面感兴趣的投资者来说, 去年市场增长最好的城市-Adelaide,有可能再次在2008年度领跑资本增长市场.相对全国其他主要省会城市来说, 该州的经济发展强劲, 资源市场繁荣, 同时价格还可承受, 相对低廉. |
