The Australian 新闻
续上周日本一个30亿元的外汇基金开始运作后，下周起又一110亿元的日本外汇投资基金将入市。主要投资为高息货币。澳元可能因此上扬。
Japanese fund to bolster the dollar
* Scott Murdoch
* June 23, 2007
THE dollar is expected to be supported next week by the launch in Japan of an $11 billion retail fund to invest in high-yield currencies.
Currency analysts are convinced that the capital outflows from Japan are one of the reasons for the dollar's current height.
It is understood that a number of retail funds are starting up with capital injections from ordinary shareholders.
A fund worth $US3 billion ($3.5 billion) is thought to have started trading this week.
The funds are being established to direct cash into high-yielding currencies, so the Australian and New Zealand dollars will be likely targets.
Last night, the dollar was close to breaking the historic Y105 barrier - which has surprised traders.
Against the greenback, the domestic currency was at US84.69c, as investors questioned whether it had the strength to smash through US85c.
ANZ senior currency strategist Tony Morriss said the traditional factors of commodity prices and steady interest rates in Australia should be weighing down the domestic currency.
NAB has predicted that the dollar will reach US86c by September, but St George predicts a marked softening by the year's end.
Mr Morriss said the dollar should be pegged back, particularly as gold and oil weaken in global commodity markets.
In the US yesterday, bond yields were mixed as the long end of the curve rose 4 basis points to 5.17 per cent.
The two-year yields were flat but 10-year bond yields were higher because of fears over the collapse of two hedge funds operated by Bear Stearns.
The differential between the two-year and 10-year swaps curve is now at 21 basis points - the steepest in almost two years.
St George, in its regular currency outlook, said the dollar had defied its forecasts as it had rallied 3.4 per cent since the beginning of April.
Chief economist Steve Ryan said the commodity price outlook was giving the dollar renewed strength, despite the forecasts of price weakening.
"The speculation of an RBA rate hike this year is likely to remain and we think that the benign inflation outlook will see rates on hold for 2007," Mr Ryan said.
"If this proves true, then dollar could be vulnerable to a downwards correction.
"A key area of support is seen around US80c. A break here could see the dollar move lower towards our forecast of US78c by the end of the year." |
