|
用新闻中的数据说话： WITH ALMOST 83% of the vote counted at the time of writing, Labor will be bitterly disappointed with a swing of only 4.94% two-party-preferred to the Party in Saturday’s by-election in Bennelong. They had been hoping for much more than the average 5% by-election swing and had even entertained the idea that former New South Wales Premier Kristina Keneally could win. If the pre-poll and postal votes favour the Liberals – as they may do – it is possible they will win the seat by about 55% to 45%, two-party preferred. The ReachTEL poll in the days before the by-election gave the Liberals a two-party preferred outcome of 53% to 47%. An Essential poll had the parties at 50/50, which was in the order of almost a 10% swing to Labor. Instead, a swing of less than 5% means the Government – and Malcolm Turnbull especially – are crowing loudly. The successful candidate, John Alexander, even called it a "renaissance" for Turnbull’s leadership. 补选的平均swing 是5% ; 因此这次 Bennelong 补选中低于5% 的swing 证明自由党取得了货真价实的胜利。用 swing 来证明所谓“自由党反华” 对华人选票的影响基本是无稽之谈。 |
