现在该不该投资房产,RPDATA的一篇文章(做了翻译)

applenet

今天收到RPDATA群发的邮件,其中有段房产投资时机的分析,有利于了解澳洲房产走向.请看以下(自己翻译的,就是大家看的方便点而已,翻的不好的地方不好意思啦):

2008 - Is this the year of the Investor?
2008年是不是个投资年度呢?
  
Investment in Australian real estate is still below the peak levels achieved four years ago. With rental vacancies at all time lows and weekly rental rates increasing, not to mention share market volatility, 2008 could be the year real estate investors return in numbers.
目前澳洲房产投资还停留在4年前所开启的高水平之下,更不要提租房空置率历史新低,租金节节升高,股票市场起伏不定等等因素之下, 2008年有可能看到房产投资者大量回到市场.

The level of investment in Australian real estate remains below the peak levels achieved during 2003 when $7.6 billion was committed to investment housing loans during the month of October 2003. The 2003 peak in property investment occurred at the height of the property boom, and investment in the market dwindled rapidly after this period.
如今澳洲房产投资市场低于2003年达到的最高水平, 2003年10月曾达到历史性的76亿元贷款投资水平. 当年的高起点源于房产市场高度增长, 而此后的投资市场又很快走入低迷状态.



Since the October ‘03 peak, property investment levels have struggled to recover. Apart from the month of June last year, when $8.1 billion worth of investment finance was committed to properties across the nation, the level of finance committed to investment properties has remained low compared to 2003.
从2003年10月的最高点以后, 房产投资市场一直萎靡不振. 除了去年6月份曾达到全国总量81亿的短暂性投资资金高点外,市场一直未能恢复到2003年同等水平.

The June 07 surge in property related investment activity is likely to be a consequence of the June 30th superannuation cut off. On this date the window of opportunity closed for one off tax free deposits of up to one million dollars into superannuation accounts. Many property owners would have capitalised on this opportunity, selling their home to place the proceeds into superannuation.
07年6月份所达到的投资活动高点很有可能与当年6.30号退休金返还政策截止日期有关. 当时可以一次性地在退休金帐户里免税投入高达1百万,此政策再无重复, 致使众多房产持有者抓住此次机会,出手房子套得资金转而投入养老金帐户.



The owner occupier market also peaked during the same period in 2003, however a recovery in owner occupier spending was comparatively swift, with the level of finance commitments taking just over a year to recover. Since the recovery, finance commitments for owner occupied dwellings continued to trend upwards.
自住房市场在2003年同期也达到最高水平, 但自住贷款金额却能迅速回复, 可以看到一年之内就又达到同等程度, 自此后此市场一直保持有力的上升势头.

One of the primary reasons for property investments levels being slow to recover is the performance of the share market. Between the beginning of 2004 and end of 2007, the S&P / ASX 200 index had doubled. The strong performance of the share market has been a major distraction for property investors. An equal disincentive was the lackluster performance of the Australian property market between 2004 and the end of 2006. Perth and Darwin were the only true performers while other capital city markets were largely flat or slipping backwards.
房产投资市场低迷的另一主要原因源于股票市场. 从2004年初到2007年底, S&P / ASX 200股票指数增长翻翻. 股票市场的甜蜜回报吸引了很多房产投资者, 而同时房产市场 在2004年到2006年底的原地徘徊也影响着投资者的信心. PERTH和DARWIN是仅有的两个市场回报较好的大城市,其他城市则大都挣扎在同期水平甚至有些下滑的走向.



Recent volatility in the Australian and international share markets is likely to influence investors to take more notice of the local real estate market. While capital growth is likely to peak early this year, rental yields should continue to improve, enticing more investors into the market. Rental yields are improving due to historically low vacancy rates across the nation pushing weekly rental rates upwards. Further interest rate rises predicted during early 2008 will place further pressure on the rental market as more and more potential buyers remain in the rental market due to affordability constraints.
最近澳洲及全球股票市场的急跌影响了投资者的心态,他们开始关注本地房产市场. 虽然房产资本增长在今年有可能达到历史高点, 租金回报率却可以继续得到很大的提高, 吸引更多的投资者进入市场. 租金回报率史积月累于全国性的低空置率, 周租金持续上扬. 更甚者是,2008年初预测的加息更给租房市场巨大压力, 因为资金承受力的限制, 越来越多的潜在购买者只能停留在租房市场,

For investors looking to enter the market, there are plenty of opportunities available. The strongest rental yields are generally located in the outer suburbs where weekly rental rate growth is outpacing growth in property values.  For those investors chasing capital growth, last years top performer, Adelaide, is likely to remain the number one growth market during 2008.  Adelaide provides comparatively affordable price points, a growing state economy and a burgeoning resources sector.  Over the medium term, Brisbane is likely to be the best performer due South East Queensland’s ongoing strong population growth, large infrastructure projects and relative affordability compared to the Sydney market.
对于想进入市场的投资者来说有很多机会. 最高的租金回报地往往是城市外郊区, 因为租金上涨的程度远远大于房产增值的程度. 而对于想在房产本身增值回报方面感兴趣的投资者来说, 去年市场增长最好的城市-Adelaide,有可能再次在2008年度领跑资本增长市场.相对全国其他主要省会城市来说, 该州的经济发展强劲, 资源市场繁荣, 同时价格还可承受, 相对低廉.

villa

辛苦辛苦，加分加分！:)

astina

apple辛苦，尤其是第一次铁出来被我误删了，大汗

applenet

谢谢斑竹加分,对你的追杀令自此解除, 哈哈哈

astina

汗，逃过一劫

Devil_Star

有一定道理，不过要留意一下RESEARCHER的立场，就是他们自身的INTEREST和BIASED倾向， RESIDEX从2005年NSW房产刚开始下跌时就力捧房产，说TURNAROUND就在年底。。。房市越好，他们的生意越多～

applenet

不过股市和房市的相互辉映我觉得是有道理的,另外数据说事实, 我感兴趣的是图表说明的一些情况,但也是过往的历史,至于能不能有房市的增长,还要看多方因素.

黑山老妖

我也是比较同意房市和股市之间的关联的。
澳洲投资的去向不多。无非就是：股市、房地产、生意和现金这几大类。
股市不振，钱就是流向其它投资。

Devil_Star

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-1-31 13:19 发表
我也是比较同意房市和股市之间的关联的。
澳洲投资的去向不多。无非就是：股市、房地产、生意和现金这几大类。
股市不振，钱就是流向其它投资。

最近我被一个ART INVESTMENT CONSULTANT缠住，想说服我DIVERSIFY一部分资金去投资澳洲的画，YIELD在7-9％左右, CAPITAL GROWTH就不好说了，什么时候能慧眼识到一个凡高或毕加索，BUY & HOLD，够以后退休花了～

黑山老妖

原帖由 Devil_Star 于 31/1/2008 20:19 发表
最近我被一个ART INVESTMENT CONSULTANT缠住，想说服我DIVERSIFY一部分资金去投资澳洲的画，YIELD在7-9％左右, CAPITAL GROWTH就不好说了，什么时候能慧眼识到一个凡高或毕加索，BUY & HOLD，够以后退休花了～

古董、艺术品和酒不是普通人可以做的。。。
good luck

Devil_Star

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-1-31 20:52 发表

古董、艺术品和酒不是普通人可以做的。。。
good luck

前两者基本不通，对酒嘛，略知一二，同样是囤积十年，有的红酒会身价暴涨，有的则过期坏掉，一钱不值，呵呵～

applenet

楼上肯定认为自己不是普通人咯,这还用说!

Devil_Star

原帖由 applenet 于 2008-2-1 01:05 发表
楼上肯定认为自己不是普通人咯,这还用说!

你小子欠K！有的东西不去做做永远都不懂，不过前提是风险控制要做好。以前我对香水化妆品是一点都不懂的，被迫去香港扫了几次货后，对市场的主要品牌和产品性能都基本有个大致概念了。。。同时得来的附属知识是名店的SALES MM基本都长得很标致～

我是老人

这还用说， 名店里的MM和DD的标致长相都是名品价格的构成部分.

不养眼,怎么多掏钱?

我是老人

谢谢LZ分享,

房产投资, 在我辈普通人看来, 已经学问不少了.

语阁

我买投资房的时候，根本没有想那么多，就是为了老的时候，生活有保障。如果赚的多了，就卖了，否则就一直留着。

rams

Thanks for sharing