UBS的一份报告指出，澳洲四大商业银行将在接下来的两年内裁减7000名员工，来应对自二战以来最缓慢的信贷增长。员工工资开支占到了银行总成本的58%。
目前四大银行共吸纳了17.9万名员工，这次可能的7000人裁员幅度为3.9%。这其中还不包括ANZ在亚洲的员工。低迷的居民和商业信心指数使得银行收入增长持续缓慢，裁员成了银行应对这一形式的办法。上周澳新银行(ANZ)已经宣布将裁减900名员工。
UBS分析师认为，银行将对成本严加把关，其中包括削减人头和弹性支出。UBS对信贷增长持谨慎态度，房地产市场也将继续维持低迷。UBS预测在1977年2010年间，澳洲房贷年增长率为14%，而目前仅为5.7%，是二战以来最低水平。
澳洲银行在1996年时共雇用了16.6万名员工，之后削减到2002时的14.4万名。然而近几年随着信贷需求的增长，银行渐渐放松了对雇员数量的控制。这导致了每名员工所创造的企业净利润的下滑。其中以ANZ为最差。根据Bloomberg和各大银行年报，截止到去年9月份的12个月里，每名ANZ员工为公司带来了$10.9万净收入，联邦银行、西太平洋银行和国立银行分别为$13.9万，$18.5万和$11.7万。即便如此，澳洲银行在全世界范围内的依然表现出色。2011年间，美国银行股价下滑了13%，日本银行缩水23%，欧洲银行跟是暴跌34%。澳洲银行7%的跌幅仅次于加拿大的3%。
UBS分析指出，削减7000名员工将把员工工资增幅控制在每年1%之内。联邦银行在其声明当中说，公司短期内没有大幅裁员计划或目标，但是不排除随时随地在部分领域削减员工。西太平洋银行预计今年将有裁员，但是没有任何指标。国立银行则表示，随着一些项目的完成和外包，公司部分领域员工数量会有所起伏。
Thousands of bank jobs face axe: UBS
The big banks are likely to scrap 7000 jobs over the next two years as lenders cut costs that account for 58 per cent of expenses to offset the weakest credit growth since World War II, according to UBS.
Lenders will reduce total staff numbers by 3.9 per cent to 172,000 from 179,000, UBS analysts said in a note to clients. Those figures don’t include ANZ's Asian staff, they said.
The focus on employment costs at banks mirror the challenge faced around the world by lenders battling slower revenue growth amid weak household and business confidence. ANZ is preparing to cut as many as 900 jobs in coming months, the union that represents bank workers said last week.
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‘‘We expect the banks to be heavily focused on their cost bases,’’ the UBS analysts said. ‘‘Solid reductions in headcount and discretionary costs are anticipated as banks react to the lower growth environment.’’
UBS continues ‘‘to be cautious on the outlook for credit growth’’ and doesn’t expect a ‘‘significant pickup in the housing market’’, the note said.
To help spur borrowing, the central bank lowered the benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point on November 1 and December 6 as Europe’s debt crisis dimmed prospects for global growth.
UBS estimates housing credit grew from 1977 to 2010 at a 14 per cent annual pace, and is currently expanding at 5.7 per cent, the weakest rate since World War II.
‘‘We anticipate housing credit growth to continue to remain subdued, probably staying in the 4 to 6 percent range for some time,’’ the analysts said.
Lowest profit per employee
Australia’s banks in recent years became ‘‘more lax’’ in managing staff numbers as they invested to meet expanding demand for lending, after reducing headcount to 141,000 in 2002 from 166,000 in 1996, according to UBS.
Among the big four lenders, ANZ employees individually delivered the least profit, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and company reports. ANZ Bank made $109,424 in net income from each employee in the year ended September 2011. That compared with $138,819 at Commonwealth Bank, $185,379 at Westpac, and $116,900 at National Australia, the data show.
Still, Australia’s banks were among the best-performing lenders in the world last year. While shares of banks in the US fell 13 per cent, Japan’s lenders lost 23 per cent and Europe’s slumped 34 per cent, Australian banks fell 7 per cent, according to UBS. Only Canadian lenders fared better, limiting their 2011 decline to 3 per cent.
Reducing headcount to 172,000 ‘‘should help absorb underlying wage increases keeping total staff expenditure growth to around 1 per cent per annum,’’ the UBS analysts wrote.
Commonwealth Bank said in a statement that it has ‘‘no target or short-term plan for major staff reductions’’. The bank may make redundancies ‘‘from time to time in some areas, while in other areas more staff may be needed’’, it said.
Westpac ‘‘expects there will be a decrease in staff numbers this year, but we have no specific targets,’’ the bank's spokeswoman Supreet Gosal said.
National Australia Bank expects staff numbers to ‘‘fluctuate in various parts of the business’’ as it completes and outsources some projects and continues to ‘‘focus on efficiency,’’ spokesman Brian Walsh said in a statement.
Kevin Foley, an ANZ Bank spokesman in Sydney, said that ‘‘there is some belt tightening going on in response to difficult market conditions’’.
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