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综合这篇文章和SMH另一篇文章的意思：由于矿类和煤炭出口大跌（矿类和能源类出口跌了17%,煤炭跌了20%以上），以及昆洲大水造成的损失，日本地震的影响，首季度预计-2%经济增长率。
Australia's economy is expected to record its sharpest slowdown since Gough Whitlam was Prime Minister following a collapse in coal exports caused by the Queensland floods and cyclone Yasi early this year.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted Australia's economy will have shrunk by as much as 2 per cent in the first quarter of the year, a big turnaround from the 0.7 per cent expansion in the final quarter of 2010.
A slump of that size - if confirmed when official figures are released later this morning - would mark the steepest contraction in the economy since the June quarter of 1974, the year before the dismissal of prime minister Gough Whitlam.
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"There is no escaping that it is going to be a very weak outcome," the Goldman Sachs report said. "Though the Reserve Bank has declared its intention to look through flood disruptions, the size of the likely GDP contraction implies that it has either miscalculated its size or overestimated the strength of the underlying economy."
The RBA estimated the floods would trigger as much as a 1 percentage point drag to first quarter GDP growth, while the budget last month factored in a 0.75 percentage point cut. Even with the slowdown, though, the official headline March quarter inflation jumped from 2.7 per cent to 3.3 per cent, above the central bank's preferred 2-3 per cent range - implying the RBA will keep its finger poised over the interest rate rise button in coming months.
Goldman Sachs's prediction is the most dire among economists ahead of the 11.30 am (eastern standard time) release of national accounts, and was revised from an earlier estimate of a 0.5 per cent drop in the first quarter. Most economists sliced their growth expectations after current account balance data out yesterday showed a $10.4 billion deficit, triggered by a 27 per cent fall in coal exports for the quarter after floods disrupted production across much of Queensland.
The consensus forecast is for a 1.1 per cent contraction for the first three months of 2011 which would still count as only the third reverse for the Australian economy since 1993, a record that is the envy of many countries around the world. And any drop is likely to be a blip as flood-related rebuilding and the massive pipeline of mining projects kick in throughout the remainder of 2011 and beyond.
Data flood
Other banks joined Goldman in lopping their expectations for first-quarter GDP growth after poor trade, building construction and inventory numbers over the past couple of days.
NAB, for instance, revised its forecast for March quarter GDP growth to a fall of 1.25 per cent from an earlier drop of only a quarter of a percentage point.
"Although the special NAB flood survey in late January pointed to a large negative impact on national GDP, the likely scale of tomorrow's estimate will be much larger than even we had anticipated," NAB chief economist Alan Oster said when announcing the gloomier prediction.
Moody’s Economy.com said the drop in exports - described yesterday by Treasurer Wayne Swan as the biggest in 37 years - could translate into a GDP drop for the March quarter of 1.7 per cent in the first quarter. Such a result would exceed the drop during any quarter during the 1991 recession.
‘‘The floods clearly hit the external sector hard; export volumes slumped almost 9 per cent during the quarter, led by sharp falls in coal and iron ore shipments,’’ said Moody’s Economy analyst Matthew Circosta. ‘‘Curiously, that is the sharpest decline in export growth since (Brisbane's) floods wreaked havoc in 1974.’’
‘‘And observers did say the floods, this time around, were worse than back then,’’ said Mr Circosta.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/e ... 20110601-1ffcn.html
[ 本帖最后由 radar 于 2011-6-1 11:15 编辑 ] |
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Four Past Midnight (2008-11-5) astina 
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