个人总结(个人记录资料贴)

gypgypgyp

gypgypgyp个人投资组合指数

计算方法
1. 2009年9月1日预设为100点
2. 每年做一次计算
3. 每年年终修正计算根据当年回报率来进行
4. 以澳币计价
5. 指数忽略资金投入/取出，仅以年回报率加乘
6. 年终日期为9月1日

范例
D年 100点
D+1年 回报率 X%,指数等于 100*X%
D+2年 回报率 Y%,指数等于 100*X%*Y%
依此类推

GYPGYPGYP Index

2009-9-1（100点）
2010-10-1 （97点）
2011-9-1 (143.64)

以下为各年投资总结目录
第一年总结 15楼
第二年总结 35楼


重开更新如下：
2018年年终总结写在60楼







[ 本帖最后由 gypgypgyp 于 2011-9-1 18:19 编辑 ]

gypgypgyp

目标9 更换Broker

大飞熊

原帖由 gypgypgyp 于 2010-9-28 22:41 发表
一年级毕业总结

2009-9-1 到 2020-10-1年度总结

总结比预定的时间晚了一个月，以后的年度总结争取按时写。

本年作为投资的第一个年度表现差强人意。

总投资到目前为止亏损3%左右。一年来交易37次。不过澳币对纽币 ...

GMG ？？不是做房地产的吗？怎么采矿去了？

Devil_Star

原帖由 大飞熊 于 2010-9-28 23:14 发表



GMG ？？不是做房地产的吗？怎么采矿去了？

同问， 俺09年钓鱼钓上来保存至今的GMG， 怎么变成钾盐股？

gypgypgyp

是GMM  手抖了

tonyju626

hehe, I have CNP too cost @ 0.3 ...

gypgypgyp

Projected Revenue/Profit for 2011.

ASSUMPTIONS FOR 2011:-

-75% increase to the 2009 Benchmark (97dmtu cents - Yandi Fines)
-5% Premium to the Benchmark (50% Production only)
-Exchange Rate 88 cents USD/AUD
-Operating Expenses $42 AUD
-Fines, Western Australia Royalties @5.625%
-1.5Mtpa 2011 (50% Nullagine Joint Venture)
-57% Fe
-Capex, USD$50M, HengHou Industries Interest Free Loan

-BCI to give 25% of it's revenue to FMG for the first 3Mtpa of the NJV production. The 25% will cut in once the price per tonne exceeds USD$60. FMG will be paying for the Royalties on the extra Revenue. BCI to pay for all Opex on it's 1.5Mt and Depn or Amort. (BCI doesn't pay the Tax on a Revenue BCI won't receive).

-Resource Rent Tax. 22.5% to be taken out of Profit, (Over 14% threshold), once the Profit exceeds $50M. That could be wrong but since I don't fully understand issues such as what can be written off etc. I'll allow others to alter any mistake I've made.

- I'm also going to assume that HengHou Industries will give BCI AUD$10.92M for their 8M options - 6M@$1.35 + 2M@$1.50, before the end of 2011. Regarding the remaining 3.7M options. The only options that expire before 2012 are $1.25 to $2.00 (Employees). The Directors options have a excercise price of $1.85 and $2.00. I will assume that all those options will be excercised. Therefore 500,000 options to be excercised before the end of 2011. So instead of 83,911,000 shares to be used for the EPS calculation. There will be 92.411M shares.

CALCULATIONS:-

US 97 cents dmtu times 1.025%(Premium 50% Prod.)= 99.425 cents
US 99.425 cents times 1.75%(Benchmark Increase)=174 cents
USD $1.74 times 57 (Fe Content)= USD $99.18 per tonne
[USD$60 times 1.5M = USD$90M] + [75%_USD$39.18M times 1.5M = USD $44.775M] = USD $134.775M
USD $134.775M divide 0.88 (Exchange Rate)= AUD $153.15341M
AUD$153.15341M + AUD$3.2M (Interest)= AUD$156.35341M (Revenue)
AUD$156.35341M minus AUD$71.8M (Opex including Royalties)= AUD$84.55341M
AUD$84.55341M minus 1M (Admin.)= AUD$83.55341 (EBITDA)
AUD$83.55341M minus 1.9M (Depn + Amort)= AUD$82.65341M (EBIT)
AUD$82.65341M minus 30% (Company Tax)= AUD$57.857387
AUD$ 57.857387 minus RRT AUD$1.5204043845M = AUD$56.337M (NPAT)

***Calculations for RRT***_$7.857387M (Over $50M)_[AUD$1.10003418M RRT Free] + [22.5% deducted from AUD$6.75735282M = AUD$5.2369484355M]= AUD$1.5204043845M

AUD$56.337M divide 92.411M shares = (EPS)
Earnings Per Share (EPS) = 61 cents per share (Unexercised Options aren't included in a EPS calculation)

Current Share Price is $1.63

Equals a P.E Ratio of 2.672

Considered value for a non specuative producing mine with a mine life of a minimum 10 years (BCI mine life projection, 17 years - Refer to Shaw Research notes) is a PE Ratio of 8, (Research Analyst Recommendation)

BCI trading at a P.E Ratio of 8 would equal Share Price of $4.88


***PLEASE - DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH***

gypgypgyp

HUN intend to dual list

gypgypgyp

Near the beginning of 2012, the NJV should be at full production. This depends on the loading facility being ramped up to cope with 5Mtpa.

I admire the "Go get um" attitude of BCI management. Some may have preferred a cautious approach. To delay production until BCI received approvals. Than work on awarding contracts for trucking and Mine camp construction.

For me, NO WAY. If we never backed ourselves and our abilities we'd never go anywhere or do anything. Go for it BCI management, back yourselves.

FMG were responsible for the 6 month delay for not signing the NJV back in June 2009. But only offically signing in December 2009. That delayed proceedings by 6 months. If it was up to BCI management we would have been close to mining already. It's a shame that BCI management was left to "Carry the Can" for something that wasn't it's fault. FMG wanting to see the offical test pit results before signing was unneccessary looking at what BCI had to offer regarding proof of the quality of the Nullagine ore.

What made it worse for BCI management was that they couldn't say a thing. They had to swallow their pride and try to make the best of the situation. BCI management couldn't blame FMG for the delay. The circumstances are, BCI is relaying on FMG for infrustucture, the last thing that BCI management could or want to do is "Bag" FMG for not signing right from the start. So not a word could of been said by BCI management for the delay, which must have been frustrating for BCI management.

Regarding future deadlines. I'm sure that there maybe a few bumps on the way. But if any company's management could deliver, BCI management could.

At the 2009 "Diggers and Dealers Conference", Atlas Iron won miner of the year. I nominate BC Iron for 2010 miner of the year. Why not? They will be producing at the end of this year because they made the decision to communicate with FMG right at the start once BCI realised that they had a feasible mine. NO other miner chose to do this except for AGO. AGO in the end decided to walk away from their MoU with FMG. Time will tell whether that was the correct decision. I say, as time goes by, it'll get harder and harder for AGO to strike a favorable deal with FMG. Not neccessarily because FMG doesn't want to rail AGO ore. But FMG are stretched already with their loading facilities etc.

It absolutely AMAZES me when Juniors pull numbers out of the air like BRM's 17Mtpa and expect they will be able to get that amount of IO to port on someones rail. FMG is struggling at the moment with 40Mtpa (memory). Do they really think that FMG wouldn't like to export 60, 80t a year. Of course FMG would. But Ultimately, until FMG can get a Multi Billion cash injection from Chinese investors FMG's hands are tied. People don't understand this issue. It's not only about having a rail line, it's also having the loading facilities as well to get the IO onto a Train, as well as enough Trains, to get the stuff to the port. To note, the reason the NJV is only producing 3Mt in the first year is because there isn't the loading facilities to handle 5Mt. FMG is pushing to handle an extra 2Mt of NJV IO until 2012, they are that stretched. How the heck does BRM think, that FMG could cope with 17Mt of extra IO to load.

As for BHP being an option. BHP has said that the earliest that Third parties could obtain access to BHP rail is 2014. And that's only on the unlikely chance that BHP doesn't appeal if it losses it's court case. In the court case FMG could only find 20Mt of spare capacity on BHP rail. FRS and BRM combined are looking for 30Mtpa. AGO is looking of rail capacity as well as FMG for Mindy Mindy. All up, 4 miners are fighting over 20Mt of spare capacity. By the time BHP are forced to hand over Third party access they WILL be at full capacity which means BHP doesn't have to give Third party access. There's also the question on BHP's conduct if they are forced to give over Third party access. BRM may wish to export 17Mtpa on BHP rail. But Ultimately, that's up to BHP on how "Nice" they wish to play with these Third parties.

The other thing to consider is what BCI posters have been discussing about recently. The fact that at the moment Port Hedland is restricted to 6Mtpa of trucking into the town itself. This not a figure that can rise because that is the limit of what the roads can cope with. So hauling the IO by roads isn't an option either.

At present, we can't really seperate BCI from other miners because other junior miners are making the same noises regarding Infrustucture deals as BCI is. However, time will tell us to whether any of the other Juniors wishes come true. From what I've said above, I doubt that they will. I'm including other miners such as FRS, FMS, GIR and even potentially the big and mighty AGO in this mix.

I give it until Christmas 2010 for the "Penny to drop with these Juniors". It's all very exciting for them to expect an Infrustucture deal to come shortly for 17Mtpa. I'm sure as I type these words, they're doing up future projections on that amount of DSO they will be exporting and the fact that these Juniors are soooooooooooooooo under-rated. BRM's management I'm lead to believe as told BRM shareholders that they can expect some sort of Infrustructure deal by the middle of the year.

I guess time will tell on whether I'm right, and they won't .... Or they're right and they do.

Just to end, some info I found interesting. I found this in DJ Carmichael's Iron Book 2007.

http://www.brockman.com.au/pdf/r ... ok_DJCarmichael.pdf

On page 8 it mentions the shipping rates for Chinese mills.
South America (Vale) to China, it is US$70 to US$100t
Australia to China, it is only US$25 to US$35t

gypgypgyp

- Very early production opportunities from their 2 lead projects in Mongolia where the regulatory and fiscal regimes are quite supportive.

- I also personally see other advantages in holding this stock LT. Australian mines are getting deeper and older. Like gold the easy, cheap coal is not there anymore. Coal in mongolia is for the most part open-cut from the surface...hence cheaper cost to produce. This offests the fact that the coal is not as high in grade as ours.


- The govt is also trying to get some rail projects off the ground which will help HUN and other juniors in Mongolia. The Tavan Tolgoi open cut mine in Mongolia is one of the oldest operating since 1967 and containing estimated 5 billion tonnes in reserves. The problem it has is that it's about 400km from the nearest rail network (it's in the desert basically). The govt wants to build a rail network to link Tavan via rail to the north of the country and also they want to link it to the Trans Siberian railway (the Russians would invest....for a return ofcourse). The idea here is to rail it to Vladivostok (a shipping hub). So it's not just all about Chinese customers....it is a very short boat ride to Japan and other customers from the port. This would make Mongolia a big threat competition wise to Australian coal as the production costs and shipping costs to some of our major customers is much less. They would be able to offer the coal (albeit it is a lower grade than ours) at much cheaper prices per tonne.


Obviously this is a LT deal. Think 5-8 years. HUN's interests are near the Tavan mine, therefore it would have access to infrastructure in the future if this were to occur as planned. It also makes HUN an obvious takeover for big established players in the region (think Ivanhoe and RIO's interests in the region).

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Unst Khuadang mine:

- Hunnu Coal owns 75% of Unst Khudang mine. HUN is aiming to produce btw 1Mtpa then grow.
- When producing from Unst the plan will be to transport materials to China by rail.
- expecting maiden JORC from Unst Khudang shortly. Exploration target is btw 250-500mt
- Mine is less than 250km from Tavan Tolgoi (if the scale on the map is right).

Tsant Uul site:

- 90% owned by HUNNU.
- Next to road that enters Chines border
- Maiden JORC also around the corner.

Tenuun:
-2 rigs operating here
- Pretty sure this is thermal coal only.

Buyan mine
- Adjacent (pretty much) to T Tolgoi

Rail line from Tavan Tolgoi to Chines border is expected to be completed in the next 4-5years by players other than HUNNU. Leighton is involved in that. Tsant Uul is close to this rail line and 200km from Chinese border. The Buyan project timeline is for completion about the same time aas the rail network.

---> The govt. is trying to be responsible and stable + encourage investment and a fair operating envronment. For coal, royalties are 5% of revenue leaving Mongolia, 2% for domestic sales.

- Corporate tax is 10% on profits, and then a 15% marginal rate kicks in for revenue over $300 million USD. That's 25% total, still less than Australia.

- Hunnu and most other mining projects in Mongolia such as copper, gold and even iron ore are south of the country next to China. So HUNNU ineviutably benefits from infrastructure on it's doorstep.

[ 本帖最后由 gypgypgyp 于 2010-11-27 10:36 编辑 ]

gypgypgyp

发热量为6000大卡/千克的大同优混煤
发热量为5800大卡/千克的大同优混煤
发热量为5500大卡/千克的优质动力煤
发热量为5500大卡/千克的山西优混煤
发热量为5000大卡/千克的普通动力煤

发热量为4800大卡/千克的朔州动力煤

发热量为3100大卡/千克的褐煤




从广义上来讲，凡是以发电、机车推进、锅炉燃烧等为目的，产生动力而使用的煤炭都属于动力用煤，简称动力煤。


标准煤只是一个概念，其实是不存在的。标准煤又叫标准燃料，是计算能源总量和折合各种能源的综合指标。由于不同的能源所含热量不同，故须用一个统一标准加以计算和比较。我国规定每公斤标准煤的含热量为7000 Cal，以此可把其他能源的折合成标准煤计算，如石油每公斤发热量为10000 Cal，天然气每立方米发热量为9312 Cal，则相当标准煤的比率分别为1.429和1.33。



中国褐煤量只有2118亿吨，与世界褐煤资源量约占世界煤炭资源总量的1/3相比，比例也很低，约占全国总资源量的1/20以下，主要分布在内蒙古东部、云南东部、东北和华南也有少量。
一般蒙东的褐煤发热量在3700-3800大卡，平庄矿的褐煤大概在4000—5000大卡。理论上存在6500大卡的褐煤，但是实际市场上根本买不到6500大卡的褐煤。市场上常见的褐煤一般在4500卡一下。


褐煤的颜色为深褐色，含碳量为25-35%，水分含量高达66%，灰分含量为6%-12%[1]。其发热量为10-20兆焦耳／千克
褐煤的成煤年代要比普通煤年轻，一般存在于第三纪的地层中。一般分为两种—木煤和真褐煤。

1大卡=1000卡=4200焦耳=0.0042兆焦



根据煤中含有的挥发性成分多少来分类，可以分为贫煤（无烟煤，含挥发分低于12%）、瘦煤（含挥发分为12-18%）、焦煤（含挥发分为18-26%）、肥煤（含挥发分为26-35%）、气煤（含挥发分为35-44%）和长焰煤（含挥发分超过42%）。其中焦煤和肥煤最适合用于炼焦碳，挥发分过低不粘结，过高会膨胀都无法用于炼焦，但一般炼焦要将多种煤配合。

gypgypgyp

Name                                               Volatiles % C Carbon % H Hydrogen % O Oxygen % S Sulfur % Heat content kJ/kg
Braunkohle (Lignite)                        45-65         60-75            6.0-5.8              34-17            0.5-3          <28470
Flammkohle (Flame coal)              40-45         75-82             6.0-5.8              >9.8              ~1               <32870
Gasflammkohle (Gas flame coal)  35-40         82-85            5.8-5.6               9.8-7.3         ~1               <33910
Gaskohle (Gas coal)                       28-35         85-87.5         5.6-5.0               7.3-4.5         ~1               <34960
Fettkohle (Fat coal)                         19-28         87.5-89.5      5.0-4.5               4.5-3.2         ~1               <35380
Esskohle (Forge coal)                    14-19         89.5-90.5      4.5-4.0               3.2-2.8         ~1               <35380
Magerkohle (Non baking coal)      10-14         90.5-91.5      4.0-3.75             2.8-3.5         ~1                 35380
Anthrazit (Anthracite)                        7-12         >91.5             <3.75                 <2.5              ~1               <35300

gypgypgyp

目标9 更换Broker


DONE!

gypgypgyp

India Seeks Ban on Iron-Ore Shipments as Local Demand Grows, Minister Says
By Anto Antony and Abhishek Shanker - Oct 29, 2010 9:27 PM GMT+1300 Tweet  (5)LinkedIn Share
Business ExchangeBuzz up!DiggPrint Email .India, the world’s third-largest iron-ore exporter, should ban shipments overseas to ensure that local steelmakers have adequate supplies of the raw material, according to Steel Minister Virbhadra Singh.

The country will need increased quantities of iron ore to meet domestic demand from steel producers, so there was a need for a ban, Singh said at a seminar New Delhi today. Singh had said in May India will consider banning exports “if needed.”

An end to shipments from India would increase global competition for supplies, potentially boosting prices of the raw material from Australia and Brazil, the two biggest suppliers. China is the world’s largest steelmaker, accounting for 43 percent of output last month, while BHP Billiton Ltd., Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA are the top three iron-ore suppliers.

“Limiting exports is inevitable because rapid economic development in India will demand more iron ore to feed its steel mills,” Xu Xiangchun, chief analyst at Mysteel Research Institute, said from Beijing. “China has to look for new resources, such as Africa, as alternatives to Indian ore.”

India’s Karnataka state, the country’s second-biggest producer of iron ore, banned exports in July, prompting appeals from mining companies. The state-level ban may cut India’s exports 38 percent to 66 million tons this year, according to an estimate from the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries.

India’s steel production is expected to increase to 120 million tons by 2012, Singh said in August. India’s current output is estimated at about 72 million tons.

Global Market

The global iron-ore market will likely remain “tight” in the near future because of a lack of new supply and increasing demand from China, Brazil’s Vale said this week. India “could come to contribute in a relevant way to the heating up of the iron-ore market in the medium term,” the company said.

India’s urbanization rate is 30 percent compared with China’s 47 percent, its industry is small in relative terms and the government plans to boost infrastructure spending, Vale said.

Asia’s third-largest economy will increase steel usage 10 percent in the year to March 31, compared with an April 6 forecast for a 9 percent rise, India’s Steel Ministry said on Sept. 6. Consumption climbed 9.7 percent to 24.8 million tons between April and August, from 22.6 million tons a year earlier.

gypgypgyp

一年级毕业总结

2009-9-1 到 2020-10-1年度总结

总结比预定的时间晚了一个月，以后的年度总结争取按时写。

本年作为投资的第一个年度表现差强人意。

总投资到目前为止亏损3%左右。一年来交易37次。不过澳币对纽币灾难性的暴涨导致最终以纽币计算竟然赚了4%以上

交易过的股票有 AVX/BCI/CNP/ELT/GMG/GTP/LYC/MRE/ORE/POS

目前持有的 股票有AVX/BCI/CNP/ELT/MRE/ORE/POS

其中
AVX为跟风购买，目前基本上是绝望阶段。

BCI第一只股票，半跟风.目前作为未来投资的重点股票，争取购买成本占到总资金的30%。根据宝钢的估计2014年左右铁矿供求将逐渐平衡，注意！

CNP最初作为分散风险的目标股。目前持仓较重，前景不明。追高造成严重亏损。前景完全在于未来2年不动产市场价格增长率与浮动利率的比较。

ELT作为ORE股东通过IPO购买。ELT目前主项目前景不明，需要2年以上的时间逐步确认。潜力在南美的铜而不在金。

MRE 十分保守的单一矿物公司，目前现金极多。BHP预测未来镍矿平均价格很难高于12 USD。以目前的生产状况来看镍价每+1.5，MRE利润增加50m。目前有增产计划，进展缓慢。寻求再适合的时机转移资金到其他股票。

ORE 未来资金重点，目前仓位较轻。旗舰盐湖生产成本约1800usd。并且拥有大量待开发盐湖。锂、钾潜力十足。Potential to become next mining giant

POS 10万吨金属镍，生产升本和储量相对尴尬(WSA)。Andrew 有1亿股option于2012年底到期（总股本33%）。Exe price 40c。



今年调整目标

1．        持股将相对集中，将主要资金集中到2-3只股票。小规模的持有其他4-5只种子股
2．        减少交易
3．        投资目标ASX200以外的中小盘股
4．        增加资金
5．        投资有明确前景的成长股，不在多碰反转阶段的股票
6．        坚持中长期持有
7．        尽量使用低价挂单的方式买入股票，不追高
8．        Market price只在成交量低迷时使用


目标股
GMM 钾盐十分吸引人，但资金募集量少（4m-5m）。其中铁矿option要求2年内勘探花费大于2m。管理层目前准备在2年内给铁矿投资2m+来取得80%权益。十分怀疑他的资金量能确保2边得进度。预计6季后CP.Pre-IPO 的1000万股成本估计在2c以下

CAZ 与BCI类似。港口谈判中

SPI 锰矿，第一个矿相对失败，看后续。

HUN 煤矿  质量6000+。目前公司大小适中。


其他


铁矿-怎么运输！
金价-泡沫
铜矿-目前开采品味不断下降，数十年没有新大型铜矿发现。

gypgypgyp

目标4 完成！


Dec/6
BCI  129,824
DML  1,326,390
HUN  2,585,186
ORE  54,497
STB  549,537


HCH  850,500
ELT  63,400
MNC  3,209,197
CAZ  244,285
POS  847,496

ASX Value  3,565,290,905
ASX Volume 2,449,475,456

Dec/7
BCI  413,293
DML  1,861,392
HUN  616,096
ORE  201,283
STB  780,680


HCH  572,231
ELT  1,030,687
MNC  5,433,640
CAZ  89,294
POS  737,299


ASX Value  4,506,545,838
ASX Volume 2,500,389,571


Dec/8
BCI  141,233
DML  2,256,302
HUN  860,502
ORE  92,908
STB  411,086

HCH  835,230
ELT  558,658
MNC  0
CAZ  97,800
POS  1,156,000
KAS  2,676,810

ASX Value  4,712,640,000
ASX Volume 2,474,526,474


Dec/9
BCI  184,710
DML  1,497,038
HUN  2,349,896
ORE  136,876
STB  0

HCH  1,208,529
ELT  559,019
MNC  0
CAZ  201,699
POS  2,644,988
KAS  1,136,113

ASX Value  5,146,135,081
ASX Volume 2,474,239,308


Dec/10
BCI  90，662
DML  2,290,269
HUN  698,441
ORE  87,086
STB  0

HCH  1,387,350
ELT  1,703,849
MNC  4,849,562
CAZ  80,062
POS  2,345,981
KAS  2,648,873

ASX Value   4,498,720,737
ASX Volume  2,649,252,095

Dec/13
BCI  165，349
DML  1,838,680
HUN  962,455
ORE  103,892
STB  1,554,825

HCH  1,339,589
ELT  200,488
MNC  4,363,094
CAZ  130,400
POS  695,934
KAS  2,443,709

ASX Value   3,994,656,204
ASX Volume  2,629,020,537


Dec/14
BCI  610,482
DML  2,488,196
HUN  1,581,416
ORE  50,055
STB  1,744,091

HCH  3,500,146
ELT  134,004
MNC  3,362,113
CAZ  253,303
POS  368,200
KAS  1,374,187

ASX Value   3,913,608,716
ASX Volume  2,537,117,575



Dec/15
BCI  178,971
DML  3,205,336
HUN  581,702
ORE  114,326
STB  2,019,569

HCH  2,269,995
ELT  153,023
MNC  3,500,333
CAZ  220,996
POS  3,820,480
KAS  1,404,812

ASX Value   4,522,461,919
ASX Volume  2,549,294,694


Dec/16
BCI  179,949
DML  2,190,154
HUN  961,725
ORE  24,148
STB  1,266,691

HCH  4,264,385
ELT  1,256,614
MNC  3,612,660
CAZ  255,482
POS  2,906,271
KAS  9,835,174

ASX Value   5,613,425,606
ASX Volume  2,766,514,956


Dec/15
BCI  
DML  
HUN  
ORE  
STB  

HCH  
ELT  
MNC  
CAZ  
POS  
KAS  

ASX Value   
ASX Volume


Dec/15
BCI  
DML  
HUN  
ORE  
STB  

HCH  
ELT  
MNC  
CAZ  
POS  
KAS  

ASX Value   
ASX Volume



Summary of key data for Western Potash Solution Mine @ Milestone, adjacent to Vale,

in Saskatchewan Province, Canada.

Ref:

http://www.westernpotash.com/new ... ssessment-milestone



Construction starts N/A. Prelim economic assessment completed 20/9/10.

Orebody depth 1708 -1745m

Seam width 16.6m

Mean potash content 21% K2O (= 33.4% KCl)

Mining method solution extraction

Annual output 2.5mt of KCl STB target 1.5 - 3mt)

Construction cost $2.51 billion(STB est. $0.5b $0.75b for Colluli)

Start up finance $2.78 billion (STB = ??)

Construction period 2 years

Unit, on site, production
cost of KCl $62.9/t

After tax payback period 7.3yrs

Mine life 40 years

Internal rate of return 27.3% after tax

NPV10 before tax $5.22 billion

Claimed accuracy of
cost estimates + or - 35%


A good appreciation of complexity / cost of the proposed solution extraction method for Westerns mine (used by 8 other Canadian Mines) can be gained by perusing the document at http://www.potash1.ca/i/pdf/602- ... evised-11-10-10.pdf at around page 80.
The doc is an invaluable reference for info on the solution extraction method and other aspects of potash mining.

[ 本帖最后由 gypgypgyp 于 2010-12-17 19:42 编辑 ]

gypgypgyp

Market value in 28th/9/2010 $186,350.50 AUD
Total capital injected by 3rd/12/2010 $137,380.00 AUD
Capital injection on 17th/2/2011 $6819.02 AUD (for ELT capital rising)
Capital injection on 14th/2/2011 $2900.00 AUD
Capital injection on 21st/7/2011 $1000.00 AUD
Total capital base for year 2010-2011: $334,449.52

[ 本帖最后由 gypgypgyp 于 2011-7-21 15:36 编辑 ]

gypgypgyp

4/1/2011

STB  drilling target 500 mt - 750 mt 21%-25% KCL

JORC/43-101 due Jan 2011
Scoping study due Mid 2011 ( 1 quater delay than previours estimation)

Asset
10.7 M cash
4.8 M share and option

Outstanding share and option

75,685,688  share
2,100,000 option( EXE price 20/Expire 24/March/2011)
2,550,000 option( EXE price 25/Expire 31/March/2011)
3,040,000 option( EXE price 30/Expire 31/March/2011)
2,900,000 option( EXE price 20/Expire 30/November/2012)
2,980,000 option( EXE price 35/Expire 31/July/2013)
8,250,000 option( EXE price 20/Expire 30/June/2014)
3,500,000 option( EXE price 20/Expire 31/March/2015)
5,000,000 option( EXE price 75/Expire 30/June/2015)
Total option 30,320,000
Total share + option 75,685,688+30,320,000=106,005,688
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Open cut potash mining has been done before and with success.

Domprov mine in the Kalush region Russia is the only open cut potash mine in the world (Opened 1960).

It is 10m thick and dips 19-27 deg. (similar to STB)

Rainfall in the region is 179 - 339mm. (Rainfall in the Danakil Eritrea is only 100-200mm and it's one of the hottest places on earth - water evaporates fast!!)

To overcome rain they installed water drainage trench and pumps.

The mine depth is up to 163m and ore recovery was 90.6% capital cost was 1/4 the cost of underground mines in the area and mining costs were half.

Potash: deposits, processing, properties and uses
By Donald E. Garrett
Page 228

Search Google Books.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mines at a depth of 1000m have recoveries of 35%-45%. this in the Canadian mines. And that's by shipping the waste back down the mine in order to hold the roof while you mine the pillars
The best underground recovery rate is in new Mexico mines at Carlsbad at a depth of 270-420m. 75% recovery there, sometimes upto 90% with a retreating pass .


. Link http://books.google.com.au/books ... 20rates&f=false


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[ 本帖最后由 gypgypgyp 于 2011-2-6 17:51 编辑 ]

gypgypgyp

1000 PPM = 0.1%；

1g/t = 1ppm

gypgypgyp

i mentioned to them to make sure the P (phosphorus) is reported correctly &amp; clearly
in the head announcement, reported the P2O5 (Phosphorus oxide) in the table rather than the P (phosphorus)
in the Snowden report [paragrpahs 6.3 to 6.5],the P is reported as 0.05% to 0.1% and a 0.09% average, which is OK
but in the tables the P2O5 is reported at around 0.25%, which can confuse readers if they think the P2O5 is the P
P above 0.15% is getting quite poisonous
??? said they were very pleased with the P because it is looking better than SDL's P [which is 0.097% per the last SDL announcement]
nice bounce after the announcement

the P2O5 had me really worried for a while, which is why I phoned
i was glad it was sorted out
the other impurities are excellent
for iron ore, it is best to not exceed the following specs:

MgO% - 2%
Al2O3% - 1.6%
SiO2% - 5%
P% - 0.08%
Ca0% - 3%

so ??? are at the upper range of P but well below on the other impurities

looking really good so far, with the whopper Fe grades

gypgypgyp

compare

gypgypgyp

"For me higher risk in Australia with coming Carbon Tax, critical shortage of skilled employees, very high labour costs, not to mention port bottlenecks and Queensland floods. Gillard government will be here for another 3 years so any promises made will be paid through taxes on mining."


unstable tax system

gypgypgyp

铜矿是个比较有意思的矿。 对于有色金属硫化矿，特别是铜矿，露天开采，可以大幅度降低开采成本，但是会带来后续选矿的一系列问题。露天开采，说明埋藏较浅，氧化严重，而有色金属硫化矿很怕氧化严重，硫化铜一氧化就成了硫酸铜（或类似），易溶于水，而很容易在矿浆中吸附在其他矿物和杂质上，同时要消耗大量的浮选药剂，对浮选很不利，加上它氧化程度变化较大，生产波动也较大（这里指的是浮选工艺，对于采用濅出工艺的，那是另外一回事）。大部分时候，埋藏略深，氧化程度很小的硫化矿（铜铅锌）要容易得多，生产波动很小，回收率很高。（硫化矿很容易选，回收率也很高）。

黄金，白银等贵金属，如果在硫化矿中，一般都是共生于硫化矿中，因此，选矿中的铜钼精矿中，黄金含量会很高（被很大程度的富集了），不会再是0.1g/t了，而是成百上千g/t。选矿时基本不添加任何流程，因为其性质稳定，不会对浮选过程有任何不良影响，冶炼时可以轻松回收。因此有这些贵金属是好的。

铀矿好像应该在尾矿中，如果含量足够的话，可以被酸濅回收。选矿中，主要能耗在磨矿中，它的铀矿作为伴生矿物回收，也许是可以的，不过要查一下其他相关的资料，才能确定。

[ 本帖最后由 gypgypgyp 于 2011-7-3 15:50 编辑 ]

gypgypgyp

它那Copper Equivalent，是它公司自己的评估方式，仅仅参考就得了，不必当真。报告里是这么说的：Copper Equivalent (also Cu Eq*) Calculation represents the total metal value for each metal, multiplied by the conversion
factor, summed and expressed in equivalent copper percentage.  These results are exploration results only and no allowance is
made for recovery losses that may occur should mining eventually result.   However it is the company’s opinion that elements
considered here have a reasonable potential to be recovered as evidenced in similar multi‐commodity natured mines
elsewhere in the world.  Copper equivalent conversion factors and long‐term price assumptions used follow:
Copper Equivalent Formula= Cu %  +  Mo(ppm)x0.0009  +  Au(ppm)x0.7808  +  U(ppm)x0.0031  +  Co(ppm)x0.0008
Price Assumptions‐   Cu (US$1.60/lb), Mo (US$15/lb), Au (US$850/oz), U (US$50/lb), Co (US$12/lb)

本来觉得品位有点低，刚才查了一下资料，发现上世纪80年代的资料，美国加拿大的铜钼矿床，铜的原矿品位也在0.4-1%左右，大部分为0.7%左右，钼矿为0.02-0.03%左右。 对比它的勘探结果，也大概在此范围内（如果把ppm理解为%%%）。加上金铀钴，应该是开采是经济的。
至于0.1g/t gold 和 15ppm uranium这种，gold肯定是有比没有好，因为在选矿过程中，金会进入到铜钼精矿中（能进多少，要看赋存状态），卖给冶炼厂时，冶炼厂会给折价算钱的。铀怎么算就不知道了。

gypgypgyp

铜矿T/O资料

GLENCORE 475 M USD for 70% of MINA JUSTA

Mine type Open pit
Processing method Oxide reserves: vat leach, SX-EW to produce Cu cathodes
Sulphide reserves: flotation to produce Cu concentrate
Average Production (LOM) 110,000 tpa of Cu
(50 ktpa of cathodes and 60 ktpa in concentrate)
Resources 401 Mt @ 0.77% copper
Reserves* 163 Mt @ 0.80% copper
Strip ratio 2.5 : 1
Capex US$ 745 million
Estimated Cash Cost US$ 0.90/lb (net of silver credit)
Expected mine life* 11.5 years
Status Definitive Feasibility Study completed in August 2009
EIA approved in September 2010
Construction to commence in 2011



http://www.cstmining.com/project/mina-justa

[ 本帖最后由 gypgypgyp 于 2011-7-3 15:49 编辑 ]

gypgypgyp

Sumitomo, Quadra FNX Form $2.9 Bn Sierra Gorda Copper-Moly Project JV




JV HIGHLIGHTS

•Quadra FNX and Sumitomo to form 55%/45% JV to develop the Sierra Gorda project in Chile, subject to normal anti-trust approval
•Sumitomo to contribute the next $724 million of JV equity after closing
•Sumitomo to arrange a minimum $1.0 billion project financing non-recourse to Quadra FNX or, if not available, to provide to the project an $800 million loan non-recourse to Quadra FNX
•Quadra FNX plans to provide its proportional share of the remaining JV funding requirements estimated at ~ $650 million through cash on hand and debt. JP Morgan has been engaged to arrange corporate debt financing for the Company

FEASIBILITY STUDY HIGHLIGHTS

•Production from current sulphide reserves average: 483 M lbs of copper (Cu), 25 M lbs of molybdenum (Mo) and 64 kozs of gold (Au) per annum over a 20 year mine life. Mo production will be 54 M lbs per year during the first three years of operation
•Expected life of mine cash cost of $1.15 per pound of Cu, with $0.56 per pound of Cu in the first five years (net of by-product credits)1
•20 year mine life based on current sulphide resources, with upside potential to process an additional 237 Mt of oxide resources
•Initial throughput rate 110,000 tonnes per day ("tpd"), with expansion after three years to 190,000 tpd
•Base Case1 after-tax NPV (8%) of $780 million; Spot Case2 after-tax NPV (8%) of $5.1 billion
•Initial capital cost estimated at $2,877 million, with first production scheduled for 2014
•Expansion capital of $818 million expected to be funded from project cash flow
1 Assuming $2.50/lb Cu, $12/lb Mo and $1,000/oz Au 2 Assuming $4.00/lb Cu, $15/lb Mo and $1,200/oz Au

[ 本帖最后由 gypgypgyp 于 2011-7-3 15:48 编辑 ]

gypgypgyp

Transportation costs represent ~40% of total delivered potash cost.

"Transportation represents a significant cost for potash producers. Based on industry contacts and published figures, we estimate that PotashCorp faces transportation
costs for sales to China of approximately US$75 per tonne. Of this US$75 per tonne, we estimate that approximately US$40 per tonne is required to move product from the plant gate in Saskatchewan to the port in Vancouver, and an additional US$35 per tonne is required to ship product from Vancouver to the destination port in China. This $75 per tonne represents approximately 40% of the total delivered cost of potash to customers in China (the largest end-market globally)."

"Allana management has indicated that they anticipate a cost of approximately US$30 per tonne1 in order to transport potash from their project site to Djibouti. Based on our analysis, we believe this estimate may prove to be aggressive. An extensive report published by Transport Canada2 sought to establish transportation costs for trucking and rail transport for a number of goods. This report estimates the transportation cost of salt (i.e., similar to potash) between Windsor, Ontario and
Toronto at Cdn$31.19 per tonne. Based on the 364km distance between Windsor and Toronto, this equates to 8.6 cents (Cdn$) per tonne per kilometer. This same report estimates the same journey via rail to cost Cdn$9.27 per tonne, or 2.5 cents (Cdn$) per tonne per kilometer, which implies a cost from Saskatchewan to Vancouver of Cdn$43.29 per tonne (i.e., in-line with the US$40 per tonne estimate
provided to us by potash industry sources). If we apply this 8.6 cents per kilometer per tonne figure to the 600km distance between Allana?s project and Djibouti (by road), this implies a total transportation cost of Cdn$51.41 per tonne. This assumes that transportation on Ethiopian roads
are as efficient as Highway 401 in Ontario, Canada. We believe this is a generous assumption. If transportation costs on Ethiopia roads were 25% higher than our base case assumption, Allana would face a cost of Cdn$64.27 per tonne.

http://salmanpartners.com/lib/fi ... ationcomparison.pdf

[ 本帖最后由 gypgypgyp 于 2011-7-3 15:48 编辑 ]

alex1031

非常不错,谢谢,可惜不能给你加分

accounts2010

谢谢楼主

gypgypgyp

2011-06-08 铁矿石价格
中国进口品位63.5%的铁矿石价格指数为175
                      58%品位的铁矿石价格指数为144