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The discomfort in discovering an entirely new and widely divergent VOC, with two very different recombinant forms, is very real. Beyond the medical impact of the Omicron variants, there is every reason to believe that this will happen yet again, as it did for Delta and now with Omicron. The prospect of a widely divergent, actively recombining, and highly novel additional variant replicating, mutating and recombining completely under our radar is a chilling thought. One thing is certain: unless we can bring the global rate of replication of SARS-CoV-2 down by orders of magnitude, the old adage about the possible becoming probable and the probable becoming inevitable is bound to come true.
I am, and always have been, a strong proponent of vaccines. My wife and I have been fully immunized and boosted as soon as humanly possible. Still, I feel compelled to warn that we may not be able to immunize our way out of this, as immune escape becomes increasingly prioritized as an evolutionary pressure in the generation of variants. We need to be careful about being addicted to our high tech solutions, that meet considerable resistance and global supply chain and delivery issues. As some countries have discovered, viral epidemiology 101, interrupting the chain of infection, is vital. Masking, handwashing, sanitizing and social distancing – keeping infected folks from uninfected folks – remains the surest path to reducing the reproduction number anywhere. Cheap. low tech and effective means can be most broadly applied globally.
In the United States, we are on track to have 1,000,000 Americans dead from COVID, within basically two years of onset of the pandemic here. What was inconceivable here has become almost inevitable. That we are not doing every conceivable thing to stop this carnage here and globally is beyond unacceptable.
突然发现具有两种截然不同的重组模式，且差异度巨大的全新VOC，这种不适感是非常真实的。除了Omicron变异株在医学方面的影响之外，我们完全有理由相信，这种情况会再次发生。就像之前的Delta和现在的Omicron一样，一种高度变异、狂野重组，且又亲妈都不认识的全新变异株，完全有可能在我们的监视范围之外恣意复制、突变和相互重组，这种可能性，可以说是一种令人不寒而栗的想法。但有一件事实是肯定的：除非我们能够在全球范围内将新冠病毒的复制率降低几个数量级，否则【从可能变得很可能，再从很可能变得不可避免】（the possible becoming probable and the probable becoming inevitable），这种万年老套路必将再次上演。
我一直是疫苗的坚定支持者，我和我的妻子都已最快速度地接种完三针。尽管如此，我还是不得不提出警告：我们可能无法仅仅通过接种疫苗来摆脱当前的困境。因为免疫逃逸能力作为变异毒株产生过程中选择压力，其优先度已经越来越靠前。我们需要小心，不能沉迷于我们的高科技解决方案。这些解决方案会遇到相当大的阻力——包括全球供应链和交付问题。正如其他一些国家已经发现的一样，阻断感染链的病毒流行病学基础常识仍然至关重要。戴口罩、洗手、消毒和社交疏离——让受感染的人远离未受感染的人——仍然是减少复制数量的最可靠途径。并且这类便宜的、毫无技术门槛且万分有效的手段完全可以在全球范围内广泛应用。
基本上，在美国，大流行开始还不到两年，我们就已经有一百万同胞死于死于新冠病毒感染。在美国，事态已经从完全不可思议演变成完全不可避免。我们没有尽一切可能来阻止美国和全球的大屠杀，这一点我完全无法接受。
https://virological.org/t/omicro ... ver-many-months/775 |
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