挪威石油巨头最近买了比特币，翻译下老板给投资人的公开信

yedelai

简单翻译一下挪威那个亿万富翁，石油领域大佬，Akar公司大老板Kjell Inge Røk­ke在买了比特币后发给投资人的公开信。个人认为是年度最佳比特币吹水文，有些观点挺有意思，所以随手翻译玩玩，纯为了博君一笑，不准确的地方很多，见谅。如果能带给大家一点点对比特币更深入的思考，那都是Kjell Inge Røk­ke老爷子的功劳。先发第一部分，后续部分看时间和情况在更。

第一部分。

Dear Shareholders,

Today we announced that Aker（Aker has a 180-year history as an important industrial group in Norway.） has established Seetee, a new company that will invest in exciting projects and companies throughout the Bitcoin ecosystem while keeping all of its liquid investable assets in bitcoin. The new company has a capitalisation of NOK 500 million, an amount we aim to increase significantly over time as we gain experience and identify exciting opportunities.

亲爱的小伙伴们（投资人），

今天，我们宣布Aker （作为挪威重要的工业集团，Aker具有180年的历史）的小老弟Seetee成立了，小老弟主要忙着买比特币，在币圈投资好项目和好公司。小老弟一开始凑了5亿挪威克朗 （5千8百万美金），以后等门路摸熟了，也找到好项目了，后面还有大把的钱跟上。

Before I proceed with our story, I want to state upfront that I am aware that Bitcoin is often criticised for a number of perceived challenges, including its electricity consumption, its inability to scale with respect to transactions, and its potential to facilitate anonymous illegitimate payments. We believe that Bitcoin can be a solution rather than a problem for each of those, but we will get to the arguments for that later.

画大饼之前，我先啰嗦两句。我知道比特币现在负面的噪声很多，什么耗电啦，技术上支持不起那么多人一起同时交易啦，给坏人背地里当枪使啦，巴拉巴拉，我都知道，但是，我们觉得塞翁失马焉知非福，比特币这些特点更多是利好，不是利空。细节后面慢慢解释。

Seetee’s strategy is threefold. （Seetee的战略三重奏）

First, we will use bitcoin as our treasury asset and join the community. In Bitcoin speak, we will be hodlers. We will be different, but additive. Perhaps not as rebellious as the cypherpunks who invented Bitcoin. But much more progressive than most established corporates. The team at Seetee is already running open source bitcoin payment servers and will remain active contributors in the community.

首先，我们将跑步进入币圈大赌场，买一堆比特币作为我们的筹码。用币圈的话来说，我们将牢牢拿住比特币大筹码，死都不卖。 别看我们不像发明比特币的赛博朋克（密码学家）敢一把梭哈，我们比起来市面上大多数老牌玩家（公司）要玩的大的多。 Seetee的团队已经在熟悉币圈大赌场了（运行开源比特币支付服务器），并将继续在币圈玩的风生水起（成为社区中的活跃贡献者）

Second, Seetee will establish mining operations that transfer stranded or intermittent electricity without stable demand locally—wind, solar, hydro power— to economic assets that can be used anywhere. Bitcoin is, in our eyes, a load-balancing economic battery, and batteries are essential to the energy transition required to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. Our ambition is to be a valuable partner in new renewable projects.

其次，Seetee也要当操盘手（矿工），将当地不好用的电力（风能，太阳能，水力发电）变成钱。 在我们看来，比特币就是经济学上的平衡负载电池，而电池对于实现《巴黎协定》目标所需的能源过渡至关重要。 我们的野心是成为新的可再生能源项目中的大玩家。

Third, we will build and invest in projects and companies in Bitcoin’s ecosystem. This is where our true passion is! Our home game is industrial applications. But we also believe nicely designed modern user interfaces will enable new applications wherever transactions happen. I am particularly interested in micro-payments and how these may enable us to avoid usernames, passwords, and our personal data being monetized with, and often without, our knowledge or consent.

第三，我们也要下注（建立和投资比特币生态系统中的项目和公司）。 这是最好玩的！ 虽然工业应用是我们的主场， 但是我们也相信，只要有交易，更好更新的交易应用就有市场。我对微额支付（闪电网络里的一种技术）特别感兴趣，这玩意让我们做买卖的时候不需要告诉别人我们的用户名，密码和我们的个人数据。

Aker is part of the industrial establishment. As someone who started my career in the engine room of old fishing trawlers outside the coast of Norway and later in the Bering Sea in the United States, I’m immensely proud of what Aker has become, including the newly-formed industrial partnerships we have recently announced. But all large companies have one thing in common: they were once small. And many large companies are victims of their own success and end up small or defunct. I will do everything I can to keep Aker curious, innovative, and able to keep up with the times.

我白手起家把Aker搞成了一个大公司，还结识了一帮牛逼的小伙伴，我还是很拽的。别看大公司拽，他们以前也是苍蝇。 许多大公司都不思进取，最后又变成了小苍蝇或者干脆死翘翘，我不一样，我要创新，我要与时俱进，我要把咱们Aker搞得更大。

After forty years in business, I have learned that you always have to keep an eye out for new opportunities and developments on the horizon. Seetee marks that horizon. It positions itself in the middle of an industry that could define the next several decades, much like the internet has done since the early 1990s. Seetee is an open invitation to push, pull, and poke life as we know it. To act like young entrepreneurs every day.

商场上摸爬滚打四十年，我得时时刻刻盯着，看哪里有发财的新机会。Seetee就是那个新的财富密码。 它玩的这个行业说不好就像1990年代初的互联网，是以后几十年的带头大哥。来跟Seetee一起摇摆吧，让你每天都跟打了鸡血的年轻老板一样。

On the shoulders of giants （站在巨人的肩膀上）

Aker’s decision to enter Bitcoin through Seetee is the result of a long and fundamental discussion about value. I have been drinking from the fire hose since last summer. While this letter is my way of expressing my thoughts on the matter, my insights are largely derived from reading articles and books, listening to podcasts and watching videos, as well as conversations with people around me.

打了很久的嘴仗，聊了不少赚钱的门道，我们最后想通了，让Aker把Seetee做起来，把比特币买起来。自去年夏天以来，我一直在给自己狂洗脑。 看了一堆书，听了一堆播客视频，跟周围的好基友聊了一遭，所以我写了这封信总结一下。

Our collective knowledge was derived from the extensive and brilliant material produced by others. These include Saifedean Ammous, Andreas Antonopolous, Adam Back, Nic Carter, Christopher Cole, Ray Dalio, Michael Green, Hugh Hendry, Reid Hoffman, Lacy Hunt, Jack Mallers, Raoul Pal, Chamath Palihapitiya, Anthony Pompliano, Pierre Rochard, Michael Saylor, Elisabeth Stark, Erik Townsend, and Grant Williams.

下面是跟我唠过磕的亿万富翁天团，就问你信不信。来来来我给大家点个名：赛义德·阿米斯（Saifedian Ammous），安德里亚斯·安东尼奥（Andreas Antonopolous），亚当·贝克（Nic Carter），克里斯托弗·科尔，雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio），迈克尔·格林（Michael Green），休·亨德里（Hugh Hendry），里德·霍曼（Reid Ho ff man），蕾丝·亨特（Lacy Hunt），杰克·马勒斯（Jack Mallers），拉乌尔·帕尔（Chamath Palihapitiya），安东尼·庞普里亚诺（Anthony Pompliano），皮埃尔·罗查德（Michael Rosard），迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）， 伊丽莎白·史塔克（Elisabeth Stark），埃里克·汤森（Erik Townsend）和格兰特·威廉姆斯（Grant Williams）

Some of the people mentioned above are not believers in Bitcoin or in agreement with our investment thesis. We like to dive into competing narratives, and mention them here in case the reader wants to dive into the proverbial rabbit hole. It’s amazing to see that the cryptocurrency space attracts so many intelligent people of younger generations much like the internet did when it was in its infancy.

上面的大哥们也有一些不相信比特币的，跟我们不对付的，但是我的提一下他们，免得大家说我们肚量太小。但其实他们不重要，重要的是有很多又年轻又聪明的人在币圈玩，因为当年互联网就是这么个情况。

While precursors existed earlier, most would agree that Tim Berners- Lee’s world wide web from 1990 was the start of what we recognise as the internet. Today, we take it for granted, but it has only been around for thirty years and the development has accelerated. Commentary on the internet’s lack of useful applications, and expert forecasts about its likely demise were frequent in the 1990s. Bitcoin was invented in 2009 and will go through waves of development before it achieves the application maturity that we are now used to on the internet.

1990年，蒂姆·伯纳斯·李（Tim Berners- Lee）搞了www，这算是公认的互联网的开始。今天我们觉得互联网是个好东西，但是其实它也就存在了30年而已，还很年轻。其实当年90年的时候，一堆人说它没鸟用，说它要不了几年就会玩完。比特币是2009年发明的，它就像90年的互联网，等它发展好了，就没人哔哔了。

yedelai

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~我是分隔线

一更

It's a testament of our times that the internet has given many of us instant access to information. But the real value comes when we let our curiosity navigate beyond the algorithms for recommended content. You can only challenge preconceived ideas when you are willing to go outside of your comfort zone. Bitcoin has inspired us to challenge our intuitive understanding of money.
有了互联网，我们想看啥马上能看到，但是我们的好奇心比算法还牛逼。人最怕的就是先入为主，最难的就是走出舒适圈。想想钱这个玩意，你懂吗？你肯定觉得你懂，但是有了比特币，我才知道我不懂。
Having followed the cryptocurrency discourse for a while, we decided to reach out to the engineers who made it their mission to change the inner workings of money more than two decades ago. This morning, we also proudly announced that Seetee has formed a partnership with Blockstream, a global leader in Bitcoin and blockchain technology. Block- stream’s leadership includes Adam Back, the inventor of Hashcash, a 1997 precursor to Bitcoin. With Blockstream as our partner, we are confident that we can navigate this industry.
听了一堆人瞎哔哔比特币以后，我想我还是得找发明区块链的这些攻城狮聊聊，所以我们找上了比特币和区块链技术的猿佬Blockstream带我们一起玩。Blockstream里有Adam Back大佬，比特币的地基Hashcash就是他打的。所以你瞅瞅我们玩比特币的决心和魄力有多大。

Not investing is the riskiest decision （不玩比特币才是最大的风险）
Risk is not an obvious concept. What’s commonly considered risky is frequently not. And vice versa. We are used to thinking that cash is risk free. But it’s not. It’s implicitly taxed by inflation at a small rate every year. It adds up.
你以为你懂风险，其实你不懂。有些事你觉得有风险，其实没有。比特币这玩意，你觉得你不玩就没风险？那可未必。想想现金，你是不是觉得没啥风险？非也非也，其实每年你的现金都要被偷偷割一波的，而且年复一年不会停，它还有个好听的名字，通胀。
Central bankers have magically agreed that they should target two percent inflation, which implies that one third of your money’s worth is taxed away every twenty years. If it was three percent, almost half of it would be gone in that time. Now you should ask, why is it two, and not one or three? What’s special about two percent?
央行也是脸皮厚，高调宣布每年只割大家不超过2%，但是你仔细想想，过个二十年，你这点钱就只剩下67%了。要是3%，那一半就没了，狠不狠？ 那为啥是2%？为啥不是1%或者3%？2%牛逼在哪里？
The Federal Reserve has recently said it will target an average rate of two percent over time, which implies they will allow inflation to run above the target for some years. Inflation is very good for debtors. And the U.S. is the world’s largest debtor. They owe the bond owners. And they owe pensions. Both groups may be out of luck in the long term.
美联储最近说了，后面这几年平均利率定在2%左右，这啥意思？这意思是镰刀将要割的比2%还要狠。还是老美会玩，发债券，借养老金，借一堆钱自己爽，这些拿着债券和养老金的兄弟们可得长点心了。
One way to demonstrate this effect is to price real estate in gold. The Schiller Case Home Price Index is the leading measure of U.S. residential real estate prices. Measured in gold, home prices in the U.S. are among the lowest they have been in the last hundred years4. In 2004, Norges Bank sold its last gold reserves citing poor historical returns. Apartments in the wealthiest part of Oslo are 35 percent cheaper today than they were in 2004 if priced in gold. And most would say real estate returns have been spectacular in that period.
为啥咱们说通胀是现金的镰刀呢？咱来说说黄金和房价。如果你要是拿黄金来买房子，那美国的房价目前是近一百年来最便宜的。04年挪威银行把家里压箱底的最后那点金子都打包处理了，说这玩意不赚钱。我了个大擦啊，会不会算啊，你拿这个金子去买房子啊，其它不说，咱奥斯陆这块，最好地段的筒子楼，用金子买的话，今天的价格比04年还打了个65折。艾玛，一群呆头鹅，说现在房子涨价了，俺们赚钱了，不知道手里的钞票贬值了嘛。

So what’s risk? It’s all relative. （啥是风险？这得看你怎么看了）
In 2018, Twitter hashtag #GetOffZero started to circulate. The main argument: it may be irresponsible not to include some exposure to bitcoin given the asymmetric return properties. Even if you don’t get the underlying cypherpunk and libertarian ideals, which I find most interesting, you still need to consider the potential diversification benefits of bitcoin: “Schmuck insurance” in the words of Social Capital’s Chamath Palihapitiya.
18年一群人在twitter上热聊，说比特币这么赚钱，你不买点对得起自己吗？你可以不懂极客，不懂我最爱的理想主义和自由主义，但你别跟钱过不去啊。投资大佬Chamath Palihapitiya都说了，买点比特币吧，兄die，这玩意叫懒人保险，躺着也赚钱。


I’ve told this story before. On University Street in Seattle, Victor Rosselini had his flagship restaurant, the 410. My mentor, Bob Breskovitch, invited me there to discuss the topic of assisted suicide with five catholic priests. They taught me the importance of scrutiny. Of questioning your own assumptions, listening to others rather than arguing your position, analysing objectively before you decide. It was a life changing lunch.
我以前讲过一个段子。我在一个牛逼的饭店，跟我老板和几位神父吃了个午饭，聊了一些严肃的话题。他们给我上了一课，教我要懂得自省，多听多想，别自以为是，别狂妄自大。这饭我现在都觉得吃的很值。


As a young fisherman in the Northwest, far away from my native Norway, diversification was not high on my agenda. As far as I was concerned, diversification was a rich man’s game. Wealth preservation was something you could do once you had actual wealth to preserve. And since I didn’t have a penny to my name, I was going to focus on getting there. For years, I didn’t think about anything other than building American Seafoods. I was young. Determined. And surrounded by amazing people. 年轻的时候我就是穷打鱼的，背井离乡，想不了多远。那时我觉得，玩钱那是有钱人干的事。俺啥都木有，想个屁的投资。那个时候我想的就是怎么挣钱，想着怎么给美国人整海鲜。不过那会穷是穷，但是年轻啊，虎的很，还认识了一帮牛逼的小伙伴。

In one way, I still stand by my younger self. If you’re certain about something, it pays off to focus and invest everything you have in it. But uncertainty and doubt build as time goes by. The more experience you have, the more you realize that nothing is certain. Everything is a bet with some associated probabilities. I should know—almost 80 percent of our portfolio was in oil and gas when the oil price went negative after Covid-19 hit.

有时候我觉得我一点都没老。只要认准了，我还是喜欢一把梭了。一般人梭了以后，难免焦虑。玩多了以后，我发现没什么事情是一定的，啥都是个赌，只是赢的概率不同而已。你想想石油以前多赚钱，等新冠来了我才发现，我他喵的怎么80%的资产都在油气上，亏大发了，肝疼。

The pandemic. Nobody was prepared, despite the numerous warnings from scientists who said it was always a question of “when”, not “if.” Like most events, pandemics are rare in a lifetime, but frequent throughout history. Norway hadn’t experienced a pandemic in five generations, so it was hard to imagine. But it still happened.

新冠这黑天鹅谁想得到。虽然科学家说瘟疫不是有没有的问题，而是啥时候的问题，但是人一辈子能碰到几回？虽然历史上瘟疫不少，但是在挪威，我爷爷的爷爷都没碰到过，结果好死不死，让我赶上了。

There are many benefits from owning a few companies in different industries, but the price declines for all companies in a crisis. As we saw in March last year. Investors use bonds to diversify their portfolios. Norway’s entire sovereign wealth fund is designed that way and it has worked well in recent history. But what if equities and bonds fall concurrently, which they have done for long periods historically? Before the Federal Reserve stepped in with unprecedented measures, that was about to happen one year ago.

耍钱的都知道，鸡蛋不要放一个篮子里，但是地震一来，所有的篮子都不安全。去年三月股市地震，大家买债券来避险。挪威的整个主权财富基金也跟着学，这几年效果还可以。但是你想想，万一股市和债市一起崩盘呢？咋整？这事上古时期也是有过的。而且其实这一轮已经有了一点苗头，要不是美联储出来疯狂放水救了场子，鬼知道最后怎么收场。

And it will probably happen again. And what happens if the central banks cannot stop the fall? What happens to the monetary system if people start questioning the stability of the reserve currency? Again, this has happened many times in history.

大伙合计合计，这事要是在来咋整？要是美联储的水也枯了，后面要怎么玩？万一大家伙开窍了，不买美元的账了，咱们手里的钞票怎么办？别以为我在吓你，这种事历史上也不是一次两次了。

I respond to today’s challenges as I would when I was a young man. I will always prefer to be a focused entrepreneur rather than a diversified investor, albeit with a tad bit more risk management and infinitely more academic rigour around me than I had earlier in my career. One of my favourite questions to people who ask me about the risk that’s inherent to our ideas: What about the risk of losing out on the upside?

别看我年纪大了，就以为我玩不动了。我还是喜欢找一个好场子玩梭哈，不喜欢东打一枪，西放一炮。虽然我现在下注谨慎多了，但是这不是代表我不敢下注。老有人问我，玩这么大不怕吗？我一般就给他怼回去，你看我赢这么多爽不爽？

Young professionals know they are risking their careers if they say yes to what eventually becomes bad investments. That’s the name of the game. What you should really get fired for is saying no and losing out to once in a lifetime opportunities. Bitcoin may still go to zero. But it can also become the core of a new monetary architecture. If so, one bitcoin may be worth millions of dollars. The asymmetry is interesting to a portfolio. People who know the most about bitcoin believe its future success is nearly inevitable. Whereas the other camp thinks that its failure is equally certain. Status quo is not possible.

小年青都知道，要是赌一个风险高的东西，他们可能会失业，但是这就是赌博游戏。你永远谨小慎微不敢下注，那你失去的可能就是一生才有一次的机会，那才是真正的菜鸟。比特币这个局可能输得你一无所有，但是也可能成为财富核心，让你赚的盆满钵满，提前退休。比特币这个局也很极端，信的人双膝跪地，信币哥，得永生，不信的人认为迟早崩盘归零，集体跳楼。

In the past months I have met many new people. One of them was Jack Mallers at Strike. He’s almost forty years younger than me. Experiencing his energy and enthusiasm was special. I felt old in his company, but also very emboldened: I lost out on mobile communications. I didn’t invest in internet companies. It was only recently that I started to invest in and build software companies (and I love it!) When I realized how much brainpower goes into Bitcoin, I saw the future in the making.

最近认识了不少币友，其中之一就是Strike的小老弟Jack Mallers，小了我足足四十岁。 Jack是个精力狂魔，跟他一起玩我觉得我真是老了，但是也打了不少鸡血。我错过了造手机，错过了互联网，亏大发了，最近我才搞了个软件公司。比特币这一波我不能再错过了。

Turning challenges to opportunities （有挑战才有机会）

It has been more than a decade since the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto published her/his/their paper, launching a new form of electronic money: bitcoin. I was skeptical of bitcoin for many years and my arguments were more or less consistent with everyone else’s: the network’s electricity consumption is wasteful, the network is not scalable, its ideals of anonymity play into the hands of criminals, and so on.

比特币也十岁了。我以前一直听人叨叨逼，说比特币浪费电，说比特币太慢，说人用它洗黑钱，所以傻逼了，没多花点心思在上面。

Money is a human invention, a social construct that only works since we collectively believe in it. In fact, the term “fiat money” is derived from the Latin word “fiat,” which means “an act of will that creates something without further effort.” It’s a decree. Of all the previous attempts at digital currencies—and there were many—bitcoin was the one that broke out. In the beginning, it was worth zero point zero with as many zeros as you would like. But the more people believe in it, the more valuable it becomes. It’s a classic network effect.

钱这个东西吧，其实也是个人造产物。大家伙都信它了，它才是钱。其实大家以前搞了很多数字货币，也就比特币一个脱颖而出了。一开始也就几个人玩，后来慢慢出圈了，现在比特币教已经开枝散叶，信徒遍布全世界，所以它值钱了。所以说共识才是钱。

Yes, Bitcoin consumes electricity. And pays for it at the locally prevailing market prices. But we believe Bitcoin will enable applications that can create tremendous value. If so, it will be engrained into the social fabric and can’t go to zero since it’s immune to the political forces that destroys a currency. If this scenario plays out, we might change our focus from the price of a bitcoin to that of a satoshi (one bitcoin is one hundred million satoshi). If our phones are full of Bitcoin applications in five years, the network’s value is a Stairway to Heaven.

比特币当然耗电，当地的电价就是它的成本，但这是毛毛雨啊，你想想它吹出的大泡泡，它有可能改变社会，有可能超脱于政治之外，潜力简直大到天上去了。别不信，到时候你可能连比特币的一个零头都买不起了。远的咱先不说，想想五年后，到时候你手机里一堆app都是关于比特币的，那个时候的价格都够你喝一壶的。

So, is it wasteful? （真的是在白白烧电吗？）

To achieve the ambitions in the Paris Agreement, we need to vastly increase electrification of society, which will drive higher demand for electrical power. But we need that electricity from renewable sources. Wind and solar are now cheap enough. But they are intermittent, meaning we can only produce when the wind blows and the sun shines. To transform it into baseload power that can be supplied at any given time, there is a tremendous need for batteries in all forms.

看看《巴黎协定》，咱得多用电啊。常规的这点电哪够我们造，我们得玩那种源源不断的。现在风能太阳能好是好，但是没风的黑夜你靠爱发电？所以最靠谱的还是多准备点电池，在阳光明媚的时候吹着风给你的电池多充充电。

Batteries are the missing piece in the puzzle to enable the energy transition. Remember, one liter of gasoline contains the equivalent of a little less than 10 kWh of energy. But less than 30 percent can be retained as useful power to move a vehicle because of the energy loss in an internal combustion engine. Regardless of where you live, I bet that the price per kWh of useful energy in gasoline is extremely high relative to electricity. You don’t buy gasoline because you want the cheapest energy. You buy it because it’s an excellent battery: Exxon is a battery company.

电池是个好东西啊。你看你开的那个燃油车，比起烧电，那个油价真是贵的离谱，所以赶紧的，麻溜的，埃克森美孚你就该转行做电池。

The network consumes energy to ensure it remains secure. Remember, banks are government regulated custodians we pay fees to mediate trust. Bitcoin has solved that problem in a way where two parties can transact without verifying and trusting each other, circumventing the need for a third party like a bank. But the mechanism requires electricity.

比特币是耗电，但是它安全啊。你看看为了安全，咱花了多少钱找银行当中介，但是比特币它不需要中介啊，任何两个人都可以自由做买卖，不存在信任的问题。这点电费可比找个中介划算多了。

Enter the so-called miners. A miner uses electricity and is compensated with bitcoins. The financiers of mining operations will insist on using the cheapest energy and so by definition it will be electricity that has no better economic use. Bitcoin then acts like an economic battery. What otherwise was of little value locally, is turned into an economic asset that can be used globally. Extremely flexible demand from miners can optimise the local supply and demand for electricity, which may accelerate the energy transition by improving the economics for new renewable projects.

好了，咱来唠唠矿工。矿工付着电费，赚着比特币，算盘打得噼里啪啦响，到处找着最便宜的电。你想想既然这电给了矿工，说明也没人愿意花更高的价钱来用。换句话说，矿工把不太值钱的电变成了抢手的比特币，同时也优化了当地的电力供应和需求，这其实是个双赢的好事。

In discussing this with Adam Back and Chris Cook at Blockstream, I realised that they already have grid balancing technology that plays right into what we are trying to do at Aker Horizons. Sometimes we can pump water into hydro reservoirs and turn intermittent capacity into baseload. Sometimes we will produce green hydrogen and ammonia to reduce emissions in areas such as shipping. Bitcoin is less obvious, but I’m certain that it will enable many more renewable projects than would otherwise be possible.

咱们以前用那些断断续续的再生能源把水抽到水库里来储存这些能量，或者用这些能量来造氢气和氨气来储能。其实比特币烧电也是一个道理，并且储存的价值比以前这些项目更牛逼，只是一般人看不懂看不透而已。

yedelai

Come on, it consumes as much electricity as…（省省吧，哪有采金子耗电）

Bitcoin’s electricity consumption must be analyzed with respect to the future scenarios for the network. A lot of volatility is natural when market participants are trying to forecast whether bitcoin is (i) a speculative bubble that will implode and be worthless, (ii) a digital scarce asset that could replace gold as a store of value, or (iii) a monetary architecture that will serve as the core trust and verification layer for numerous types of transactions.

比特币到底要烧掉多少电取决于它以后怎么玩。一般大家觉得比特币未来可能有三种截然不同的结局（i）泡沫破裂，比特币归零，（ii）数字黄金，主要用于价值存储，或（iii） 一种货币体系，用来交易。（个人倾向于认为是2和3的结合）

If you subscribe to the bubble narrative, you can rest safely knowing that the electricity consumption of Bitcoin will return to zero in the near future. Miners will not expend energy if their bitcoin rewards are rendered worthless. If that’s your view, the discussion is moot.

如果你觉得比特币是泡沫，那恭喜你，比特币未来归0，那就再也不耗电了。这种咱也懒得浪费口水了。

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~我是分隔线。

二更

What if bitcoin replaces gold as an asset class for portfolio diversification and store of value? Now, to all the gold bugs out there, this is not our prediction. Thousands of years of history as sound money means gold will likely remain attractive. We merely use this example to show that bitcoin’s scarcity would be sufficient and environmental price would be much lower. Also to be clear, this scenario is not why we are excited about Bitcoin, but it may be the easiest use case to understand.

如果比特币变数字黄金了，咋整？咱把金子和比特币拿出来比划比划。金本位也搞了几千年了，一时半会当然也不会玩完。但是咱想想比特币的稀缺性，想想它对环境的破坏程度，那真的是完爆黄金。插一句，比特币的爆点可不止这三瓜五枣的，挤兑完黄金，高潮咱后面说。

Current gold production is around 3,000 tons a year against an inventory of about 200,000 tons, which is all the gold that has been produced throughout history. Of that, less than half is used for jewelry. The so-called stock-to-flow ratio, which is a measure of scarcity where a higher number is better, is therefore currently around 56: at the current rate of production, it would take 56 years to double the inventory.

黄金这玩意现在年产3,000吨，库存量约20万吨，注意了，咱人类存在这么多年，攒下的黄金就都在这里头了。这里面不到一半做首饰了。按现在这个状况，56年后咱攒下的金子可以翻个倍。

What’s the comparable scarcity of bitcoin? The current block reward is 6.25 bitcoin, which translates to about 900 new bitcoins every day, or 328,500 per year. Given 18.6 million bitcoins in existence, the stock-to-flow is currently approximately 56, which is on par with gold. But after the next halving, which will happen during the spring of 2024, the stock will be higher and the flow will be lower, so stock-to-flow will be more than double that of gold: Bitcoin will be much scarcer than our scarcest commodity.

比特币现在每天产出来900个左右，每年328,500个，目前已经挖出来的有1860万比特币。要是产量一直这样，也差不多是56年翻一番，但是，但是，但是，中本聪这个鬼才已经下了套了，在比特币的程序设计中，每四年比特币的产量都会减半，最近的产量减半是2024年。换句话说，相比起黄金，比特币的稀缺性会逐渐完爆黄金，而且是指数型的那种。降维打击听过没？没错，在过个十年二十年的，地球上任何资产的稀缺性都将和比特币不在一个维度上！！！

The estimated CO2 emission for producing new gold is more than 100 million tons per year. Estimates vary, but recent studies put Bitcoin’s around 30 million tons annually. That’s less than one third of gold’s CO2 emissions. And as renewables increase in the mix, Bitcoin’s CO2 emission intensity should drop significantly. Note that this is still disregarding the cost of refining and storing gold, as well as the negative impact land excavation in less compliant regions of the world has on both people and the environment.

然后咱再来唠唠坏境成本的问题。目前黄金生产每年要排放大约1亿吨的二氧化碳。 而比特币大概为3000万吨， 不到黄金的三分之一。 最重要的是，比特币对能源不挑。就是供着一些电脑嘛，天时地利啥的咱都能凑合，太阳能风能都没差，所以比特币造出来的二氧化碳估计还能在降一降。另外黄金这玩意，挖出来了咱还得提炼，还得找个靠得住的地方存着，另外挖完了还得给矿区，给当地的环境擦屁股，这些事你想想多烧钱，得多排多少气。比特币就完全没有这些破事。
That leaves the most optimistic scenario for bitcoin. The one that gets us excited. Where Bitcoin’s ability to verify transactions between two parties without a trusted third party is used to build an ecosystem of applications.
唠了半天重于到说重点了，这管鸡血大家可都得接好了。比特币最牛逼的地方在于，任何两个人做买卖，不需要一个第三方的中介，咱就能把生意做下来，而且还不担心上当受骗。你品，你细品，这它喵的以后会在造一个金融系统，把现在的这些老古董给收编了啊！！！

We are already exploring Blockstream’s Liquid and Elements products for industrial applications: foreign exchange, cash management, trade settlements, emission verifications. But these are merely the obvious ones. The broader potential? Economic access for the unbanked through saving, spending, and lending services. Micropayments. Ownership of private data. Technology that can disrupt compliance, which is now more than ten percent of bank employees and increasing. With the added benefit of improved security and near-instant settlement.

Blockstream已经在玩一些传统的金融产业了，外汇，现金管理，贸易结算，发行验证。但是就这？那也太小看咱们的野心了。咱现在琢磨的是，要让那些开不了银行账户的人也能玩金融，要让大家伙都能对自己的私人数据有所有权，都能用微额付款的技术。偷偷的说，咱也在关注逃避监管的技术手段，别笑，超过10%的银行雇员都在偷偷用。还有就是用比特币做买卖，更安全，也更高效。（即时结算）

We obviously can’t know how this will play out. Many technologies will compete to solve these challenges. But we do know that many applications are too important to leave the verification to centralized systems owned by a corporation or controlled by a single country.

饼画的有点大，其实咱现在也不知道怎么弄，但是现在很多新的技术已经在尝试解决这些问题了，而且竞争还很激烈。但是毋庸置疑的一点是，这些技术太太太重要了，咱不能把这些技术给一个人，一个公司，或者一个国家给控制了，咱必须通过去中心化的方式发展这些技术。（很简单的一个例子，robinhood拔网线阻止散户们买gamestop的股票，所以咱需要去中心化交易所这样的技术）

So what about the electricity consumption in the scenario that we are most excited about? Clearly, the protocol is designed to cut the rewards in half every four years or so. Miners will only expend the electricity if it remains profitable. 18.6 million of the maximum 21 million bitcoin exists today. So at the end of this year, 90 percent of the bitcoin is already in existence and paid for. Nine tenths of the infrastructure is there.
Since the block reward goes down significantly over time, the miners would be willing to expend less electricity all things equal. Either the variable transaction fees or the price of bitcoin have to increase substantially to compensate the miners. Since the block reward will approach zero, fees are the only viable long-term compensation mechanism.
Since the transaction volume cannot increase given Bitcoin’s design, fee increases imply that the value of single transactions must be substantially higher than today. Presumably, that’s only possible if every transaction on the mainchain always involves very large amounts. Billions of smaller transactions would have to execute with acceptable security in second layers and sidechains.
Again, all of this is only commercially and economically viable if the value of verifying large transactions without a trusted third party is sufficiently high. This implies high demand for the network’s architecture, which again means that useful applications that create tremendous value have been built on top of the core network. Bitcoin can therefore only survive, and electricity will only be consumed, if the value created by the network is sufficient.

那这种终极进化的场景下，比特币有多烧电呢？来来来，咱从技术上好好唠唠。。。（以下省略500字，没知识背景的请自行谷歌。）总之吧，只要比特币能解决大买卖（亿级别的）的信任问题，踢掉中介，并且安全可靠，你想想这里面多大的价值，你还惦记着那点电费？出息。

Even completely disregarding Bitcoin acting as an economic battery that may improve the economics of renewable projects, which could accelerate the installation of intermittent sources of electricity, we don’t see a long-term problem related to Bitcoin’s electricity consumption.

另外比特币还能用清洁能源，还能用那些不好用的间歇性能源，并且把它们变成钱。哎呀，又唠回去了，这么一点点电，毛毛雨啦，咱能别唠了嘛。比特币这辈子都不会影响你造你那点电。

If it’s a bubble, it dies and consumes nothing. If it’s digital gold, it’s more efficient and will emit much less than the asset it disrupts. And if it’s really successful, it’s because of demand from truly value creating applications that define our future and should be worth the electricity.

唠了一圈，总结一下。比特币要是气泡，它就会归0，没人用也不会有耗电。 比特币要是数字黄金，那它比黄金效率更高，对环境更友好。比特币要是实现 终极进化，那咱这点电真是用对地方了。

Fine, but how will it scale? （比特币怎么把交易量做大？）

It is true that the Bitcoin mainchain cannot process the number of transactions that we depend on in modern society on its mainchain. But that’s because Satoshi Nakamoto’s design didn’t trade censorship resistance and security for scalability. So scalability has to be solved by making slight tradeoffs.

咱们现在这个社会的交易量有点大破天，比特币的交易吞吐量现在还有点吃不消。为了高度的去中心化和抗审查，比特币当初设计的时候牺牲了一些可扩展性。人在屋檐下不得不低头，为了比特币神教发展壮大（扩大交易吞吐量），有时候也得适当低头。

Bitcoin doesn’t compromise. To ensure it’s open and secure, resistant to censorship and retroactive edits, it’s decentralized. But that’s a major drawback for scalability: Keeping one central spreadsheet up to date is obviously more efficient than having numerous copies that all must be updated. A Bitcoin transaction takes about ten minutes to be confirmed and the design capacity is about seven transactions per second. Hardly sufficient to deal with today’s transaction volumes.

比特币的骨头还是很硬的。为了保证安全性和去中心化，以及链上的交易数据不被篡改，咱给每个矿工的电脑上都安装了一个完整的账本。谁造假了，咱拿出其它人的账本一对照，分分钟揪出这大尾巴狼。不过这个特点吧也有个大问题，就是每笔交易都相当于要发一个群邮件，每个人的账本都得更新一遍。所以交易量大了就可能宕机。目前每笔比特币交易大约需要10分钟的网络确认时间，整个比特币网络设计的处理能力是每秒处理7笔交易。跟需求比起来，感觉就是苍蝇喂老虎，肉也算是个肉，解决不了核心需求。

But when I heard Jack Maller’s talk about the Lightning layer I had another Rosselini moment. The Lightning Network is built on top of Bitcoin to make it scale. Transactions are done in bilateral channels that connect in a network and each channel is anchored to Bitcoin’s mainchain with a single transaction. Lightning transactions complete in milliseconds and can process millions per second with hardly any use of electricity. It therefore leverages Bitcoin’s security while increasing speed and reducing cost to levels not achievable by legacy payment rails.

不过也不是没有办法。Jack Maller给我吹的那个闪电网络，我觉得有戏。啥是闪电网络呢？就是两个固定的交易伙伴，在比特币的区块链上建一个封闭的通道做买卖，今天你买我5毛钱的红薯，明天我买你1块钱的土豆，你来我往的，咱自己记个账（不需要发送到比特币的区块链上，也就不需要更新每个账本），等年底了咱合计合计，最后跟比特币的账本结算一下。每天的这些零碎交易就是闪电交易，1秒钟就可以处理数百万次，还贼安全，还没有交易手续费。（译者注：译者注：老爷子说的唾沫横飞，但其实闪电网络的局限性和问题还是挺大的，应用场景目前很局限，安全性也有待考验。这几年进展不错，但能不能真正成为扩容的利器还需要时间来给出答案）

Does a global distributed network of bilateral payment channels sound impossible? In fact, that’s how spot foreign exchange works. Aker is the largest investor in Abelee, a non-bank liquidity provider in the foreign exchange market. We have spent a lot of time learning about the microstructure of financial markets. It’s only a matter of time before the old and the new world of money is seamlessly connected.

点对点的跨境支付网络听起来高大上不？嘿嘿嘿，老哥我的公司早就玩上了。我们Aker大手笔投的Abelee，就是干这事的（点对点外汇交易）。金融市场的那些旮沓角落我们都扫过了，不是我跟你吹，前浪迟早被后浪给拍死，咱玩的这些小众玩意迟早成为主流。

On that night, with all of us on video from Chicago, Tel Aviv, and Oslo, Mallers sent dollars from a regular bank account in the U.S. via a wallet in Tel Aviv and further on to Oslo. Then, for fun, we sent it to an Aker colleague in Accra, Ghana. All these transactions took place instantaneously and at nearly no cost. This creates the possibility of programmable microtransactions, a payment stream, which can unlock limitless opportunities.

别不信，就早几天晚上，我们就视频见证了怎么把美金在不同的国家中转圈圈，还又快又没有手续费。想想看，这要是变成主流了，这里面有多大的蛋糕可以啃？

Applications will have different needs and people will be willing to make slight tradeoffs to achieve those. I’m certain that, with time and creativity, applications that scale in sidechains and layers on top of Bitcoin will flourish. This ecosystem can provide massive scalability, and will only need to settle with the mainchain now and again. Like getting a stamp of approval from the source of absolute truth.

只要好处给够，咱们都是好说话的嘛。比特币这玩意，可能有这的那的缺点，但只要饼足够大，咱都可以忍受，可以等它慢慢进化。我是无脑看多的，给它点时间，侧链和层上扩展的技术会慢慢解决这些问题，做出改变世界的应用来。这些应用类似于闪电网络那样，给比特币生态带来足够的可扩展性。

As such, we believe Bitcoin will scale brilliantly in layers upon layers that make the trade offs applicable to particular application. And as we will see in the next paragraphs, it may provide the opportunity to build an entirely new architecture for how information flows in society.

总之，你也甭管我刚刚提到的闪电网络到底行不行，这不重要。你就记住一点，比特币它总会有办法来实现扩展的。下面咱来说说它具体的应用。

Still, doesn’t bitcoin enable undesired activities? （玩比特币的没几个好人？）
The first industry to take advantage of the internet’s potential was arguably the pornographic industry. When we founded Cognite, a company that enables siloed data and legacy systems to seamlessly interact to improve access and flow of industrial data, we did that with internet pioneer John Markus Lervik. He told us how his first company, Fast Search & Transfer—later acquired by Microsoft to power their search functionality—was constantly approached by the pornographic industry in the late nineties: they wanted access to the company’s leading and proprietary image compression algorithms.

superdigua

5千8百万美金只能算意思意思。

估计后面会有资金不断进场。

原文链接： https://www.seetee.io/static/sha ... f1c0eca1d632722.pdf

英雄所见略同

cabbagebread

翻译的很有趣，加分

idlepoison

看了下财报
哈哈哈哈

superdigua

idlepoison 发表于 2021-3-9 19:29
看了下财报
哈哈哈哈

石油巨头转身做比特币。。。。了不起。我很看好。

flyfish668

其实就是钱多，有钱人一起囤币

benny2002

我都怀疑这些有钱人是串通的。

yedelai

cabbagebread 发表于 2021-3-9 20:21
翻译的很有趣，加分

多谢多谢，难得有人这么捧场，点评到位，大大满足我的虚荣心。哈哈哈

辣子鸡丁

翻译的很有意思。谢谢楼主

辣子鸡丁

总觉得这些大公司买入比特币，都是进场赚一票改善一下自己资金链而已，包括马斯克。

如果这些大佬真的长期支持比特币，或者作为自己产业的一部分，那应该完全开放允许用比特币来交易他们的商品。

zmzhu

翻得不错，来捧个场

Even_889

好文，存起来空了阅读，谢谢哈

NONOY

感谢分享

fffighter

长文翻译啊，楼主辛苦

positveLife

shdanding

入完货了，当然要大吹特吹一波啊

fxdestiny1

这是抄完底等韭菜的节奏啊。。 希望别那么早割韭菜 等涨到10万一刀下去也不迟 让我多少也赚点。。

zxie8

不是很懂比特币，虽然自己也跟风买了点， 比特币有稀缺性(总数是一定的)，也有实用性(比如洗钱...)，但是如果有别的加密币算法和比特币持平或者超过比特币，比特币怎么维持自己的价值? 懂的人讲讲

FSM

zxie8 发表于 2021-3-10 15:38
不是很懂比特币，虽然自己也跟风买了点， 比特币有稀缺性(总数是一定的)，也有实用性(比如洗钱...)，但是如 ...

比特币的价值就是靠共识，其实他的算法功能等都算不上先进，甚至有点落后。但是大家都把它当作黄金一样的储值工具，不在意它的落后的算法和功能。比特币靠多少年的积累才让大家形成的共识，很难被轻易改变的。

BLUEBERRY2011

楼主真有才，翻译的太有趣了

yedelai

BLUEBERRY2011 发表于 2021-3-10 16:23
楼主真有才，翻译的太有趣了

这才是最好的回帖嘛，多谢多谢，哈哈哈

bearchen

谢谢楼主的翻译

BLUEBERRY2011

yedelai 发表于 2021-3-10 18:27
这才是最好的回帖嘛，多谢多谢，哈哈哈

我一路大笑看完，好久没看见这么连贯搞笑的段子了。仰慕！

yedelai

二更了，谢谢大家捧场。

yedelai

大伙可能不知道，最开始吃互联网肥肉的就是色情业。我们搞Cognite这个公司的时候认识了John Markus Lervik。这哥们算是最早吃互联网肥肉的。有一回给我们唠嗑，他说他最早开的那个公司就老是被色情业的人骚扰，希望拿他们公司的图像技术去揽客。

So when a new architecture for money emerges, it should not be entirely unexpected that criminals became its first users. It was more efficient to use cryptocurrencies than cash, which has always been and is still available for those who want a bearer asset to conduct illegal activities. But when the internet went mainstream it found other legitimate uses. We see the same development with cryptocurrencies: criminal use of bitcoin is relatively minuscule.

比特币就像那个时候的互联网，被坏人盯上也是免不了的，毕竟监管还没有成熟嘛。你想想，比特币这玩意又不跟人的身份挂钩（不记名），管你张三李四还是王大麻子，它只认你钱包的密码。纸钞也不记名，但是跟比特币比起来就是个弟弟。但是咱不能一棍子把比特币打死对吧，毕竟互联网现在也有各种有色网站，也有各种上不了台面的东西，但这些都掩盖不了互联网的巨大价值。同样的，比特币上的各种应用其实现在已经发展的不错了，非法的应用只占到了极小的一部分。

In fact, the libertarian ideals of the cypherpunk movement holds promise and valuable ideas for the world today. On the one hand, our basic human rights include freedom of speech, religion, assembly, and association; and right to equal protection of the law. As such, information about the individual and his or her actions and transactions should be available to those with a legal right to access. On the other hand, as has been so eloquently exposed by Shoshana Zuboff in her book, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, the internet behemoths have turned us into the product. I’m certain we need to fight back against unlawful access to information, and that requires a new architecture.

极客们推崇的这些理由主义和自由主义的东西，其实是有它的价值的。咱们现在觉得理所当然的基本人权包括，言论，宗教，集会和结社自由， 以及平等受到法律保护的权利，就是老祖宗辈的极客们争取来的。现在这个信息时代，咱们的一些私人信息，比如我早上买了啥，晚上吃了啥，咱们其实是不太想别人知道的，但有些互联网巨头就是他妈的无耻，吃喝拉撒睡都想来看一看，也不知道是谁给它们的权利。所以说咱们得反击，咱们得有个新的技术。

On a personal note, I am frequently frustrated that I give away usernames, passwords, locations, credit card details and other information to read newspapers or watch movies. I’m fascinated by the prospect of bitcoin Lightning wallets that may enable instant credit via micropayments without the need to offer personal information that my counterpart can monetise without approval or compensation.

比如说我吧，平时就喜欢读个报，看个电影啥的，但就这么点小爱好，我还得出卖我的用户名，密码，位置，信用卡详细信息和其他信息，所以我很不爽，所以说我得在吹一波闪电网络，用这玩意付钱，我这些私人信息都不需要提供。

So if you insist on being anonymous, doesn’t that mean you are hiding from the law? Of course not. To the contrary, I believe Bitcoin holds the promise of much more sophisticated KYC (know your customer) and AML (anti money laundering) procedures that enables access when there is legal grounds but keeps everything anonymous in all other circumstances. After all, the legacy bank systems are themselves arcane, complex, and vulnerable, which means there is room for innovation.

当然哈，我不想提供这些个人信息，不是说我干了啥不正经的事情，怕被警察逮着。比特币也有自己的KYC和反洗钱程序，可以保证在匿名的情况下确保交易的合法性。再说了，传统的这些银行也不是啥白莲花，干的这些偷鸡摸狗的勾当也少不到哪里去。比起来咱比特币身世清白多了。

Lastly, let’s also remember that the current system doesn’t work for everybody. As a business man in my sixties, I have access. The current system works relatively well from my perspective. But what about the poor but hard working farmer? What about the billions of unbanked that have no way of accessing a bank account, much less credit to build their lives?

另外吧，现在的这些金融服务也不是谁都可以用。咱发达国家的大老板，当然玩的溜，但是还有大批第三世界的底层老百姓，他们的钱银行割不到啊，所以咱的把比特币做好，把镰刀在升升级。

From their perspective, what we have today clearly doesn’t work. And the regulatory patchwork makes it even harder for them. It’s unacceptable. Bitcoin’s protocol should enable an ecosystem of applications that may change that because many more people will have access to mobile phones and the internet than have access to traditional financial infrastructure.

割不到他们咱心里老是惦记。但我想这些人开不了银行账户但多少可以用的起手机和互联网吧。那不就得了，有这个在，比特币就能割，正好弥补银行的空白。真是好大一片蓝海。

One hundred years ago, in the Roaring Twenties, the young Howard Hughes produced Hell’s Angels, a World War I epic famous for its spectacular aerial battle scenes. (It was originally conceived as a silent starring Greta Nissen, a Norwegian actress who was replaced due to her accent when Hughes decided the movie was going to have dialogue.) The war scenes were filmed in California and one problem kept delaying and increasing the production cost: the lack of clouds meant perspective was lost and so the planes appeared slow in the skies. Signs were put up that said “War Postponed—No Clouds Today!”
The reference point matters for your perspective.

老爷子举这么个例子是想说站得高才能看得远？不对的话，请大神们上来补刀。

Progress is inevitable 后浪是挡不住滴
Let me tell you a story about progress. In the early nineties, I was on holiday in Spain and both wanted and needed access to the daily fishing reports that I was used to getting by fax from the vessels in Alaska. To my great surprise the local electronic stores didn’t sell fax machines. But lo and behold, I found a hairdresser in Marbella who owned one for reasons I still can’t imagine. He was not an eager seller, but I was a persistent buyer. I bought it from him and paid a silly price to get the information I needed. I saw him at the bar that night, enthusiastically laughing and drinking with his friends—there was no doubt he was a happy seller that day.
Smart phones were still fifteen years off. Progress is obvious after the fact.

90年代我去西班牙度假，想搞个传真机，结果发现这地儿居然买不到。但神奇的是，我居然在附近的一个理发店看到了。我一上头花了高价硬给买下来了，我感觉那个理发店老板应该乐疯了。你在瞅瞅现在，智能手机遍地开花，但其实它也就存在了不到十五年。 所以说进步是显而易见的。

At the end of the Second World War, world leaders agreed that all currencies could be exchanged at a fixed rate to U.S. dollars, and dollars would be redeemable for a certain weight of gold. The dollar became the world’s reserve currency, replacing the British sterling, which once replaced the French livre. For 6,000 years, gold had been the most reliable store of value. As we saw for real estate, the price of various goods and assets don’t change as much when measured in gold as opposed to fiat currency.

二战以后，美国佬忽悠大伙一起用美元，把美元跟黄金勾搭上。没办法，谁让老大哥英国给元首打残了呢，再说呢，英镑以前的地位也是从法国人手里抢过来的。还是得手里有枪，抢钱才有底气。这么多年了，黄金还是最香的储值货币。你瞅瞅你的房子还有各种七七八八吃的用的，一直在美元的世界里通胀，在黄金的世界里保持完美身材。

When Nixon abandoned the gold standard in 1971, a lot changed fundamentally. Interest rates first spiked and have since fallen and caused a forty year perpetual bull market for bonds. The United States have ramped up significant debt and considerable pension liabilities. There is no shortage of global challenges either: rising inequality, climate change. More debt is probably the only source of funding these crises. As Warren Buffet famously said: “the “U.S. debt isn’t going to be repaid; it’s going to be refunded.” The end game is clear. There will be a bond fire.

尼克松是个聪明人，放弃了金本位，然后这些玩资本的都发了大财。然后一堆问题就冒出来了，财富分化越来越严重，气候变化也在加剧。然后美国佬又继续借钱来解决这些问题。这事情巴菲特就看的很清楚。美国人玩的最溜的就是不断的借借借，压根就没想过还的问题，债滚债，看这火烧到啥时候是个头。

Gold survives bond fires. It cannot be increased to deflate the value (scarce), it is not perishable and can withstand time and use (durable), it can easily be stored and transported (portable), the value of any gold item can easily be related to another independent of form (fungible), and it can be divided into smaller amounts and re-assembled without loss (divisible). Bitcoin is like gold, but better.

黄金倒是很坚挺，没办法，稀缺啊。相对来说好保管也好运输，拿出去买东西也容易，大家伙都认，好分割也好组装，大生意小生意都用得上。但这些优点比特币都有，而且都还有过之而无不及。

Wells Fargo, once Warren Buffett’s favourite bank, was founded in 1852. The bank used a stagecoach to transport valuables ranging from letters to gold, contracts to checks, in Wells Fargo’s green treasure box under the driver’s seat. The company employed and contracted shotgun messengers to guard them. “The kind of men you could depend on if you got into a fix,” according to Wells Fargo’s website.

富国银行曾经是巴菲特的老相好， 1852年开的张，也是百年老字号了。那个时候运贵重物品不比现在，银行都是用马车，宝贝都藏在驾驶员座位下方的富国银行的绿色宝藏箱中，然后雇一批枪手来押镖。 看看富国银行的广告：摆不平了？找我们，绝对靠得住。啧啧啧

For thousands of years, societies have mined for gold in all corners of the world with great sacrifices by people and the environment — even today. Once the gold is above ground, it must be protected at all cost. While I believe we do it in more sophisticated ways than Wells Fargo’s shotgun messengers, the principle remains the same. Once again, large capital investments and high operational costs. Waste. Inefficiency.
We need progress.

黄金嘛，老祖宗都知道是好东西，这玩意见不得光，否则一堆人拼着命的抢。咱们现在守着这点金子，虽然安保比以前做的好一点，但是意思是差不多的。你要想用这些金子去搞点投资做点生意啥的，那是相当的麻烦，效率低的吓人。所以说咱们得想办法。

Scarcity drives prices, whether we talk about watches or guitars, wine or cars, paintings or sculptures—all physical assets. Making digital assets used to mean it could be copied for free. Not anymore. Bitcoin can be verified, divided, re-assembled, stored, and transported at virtually no cost. It’s the perfect scarce digital asset. By design. All that’s required to keep the network running, is allocating the cheapest electricity in the world. Electricity secures the network. No trusted parties or people with guns are needed.
I call that progress.

中国人有句老话，叫物以稀为贵。手表，吉他，葡萄酒，汽车，绘画或雕塑，这些玩意就是越稀有越值钱。以前咱也有数字资产，比如网上的照片啊啥的，但它是可以无限复制的，不存在稀缺性。但比特币不是这么玩的，每一枚比特币都是可以被验证的，是只存在于比特币网络的不可以复制的数字资产。它可以以极低的成本（浮动的个位数的美金）被验证，划分（类似于切割黄金），重新组装（类比于碎金子熔到一起），存储和运输。这些特点通过程序控制，不受任何个体支配，通过分散在地球的各个角落的廉价电力维持。你品，你细品，这就叫后浪，有比特币你还用得着黄金？

jack2k

这都是很朴实的数字货币的价值（也是数字黄金）。
唯一不确定性，就是他和政府的法币权有冲突，大家都认他了，美联储往哪搁啊，咋印钞呢？
货币本质是信用，也是实力，也就是美军，美元，石油币，话语权。
这实质是，你相信平权（公平诚实的数字货币），还是相信霸权的问题。
可能两者都互相存在，又互相竞争。

yedelai

jack2k 发表于 2021-3-11 17:12
这都是很朴实的数字货币的价值（也是数字黄金）。
唯一不确定性，就是他和政府的法币权有冲突，大家都认他 ...

说的很对，唯一的问题是忘了给楼主点赞和加分。

fffighter

zxie8 发表于 2021-3-10 15:38
不是很懂比特币，虽然自己也跟风买了点， 比特币有稀缺性(总数是一定的)，也有实用性(比如洗钱...)，但是如 ...

诺贝尔经济学奖获得者Shiller写了一本Narrative Economic，第一章讲的就是bitcoin，可以去看看。