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For your reference! DYOR!
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Credit Suisse 01/09/2009 5 Underperform - Initiation of Coverage $4.21 2.4%
The broker has initiated coverage with an Underperform rating, noting there is scope for significant increases in production and higher iron ore prices to push up earnings, but there also remains significant risk associated with the stock. One of these risks is its highly geared capital structure.
While the company's alignment with the Chinese may appear favourable, the broker points out that the market is difficult to predict. Sticking to fundamentals, CS believes a negative rating is justified.
Deutsche Bank 18/08/2009 5 Sell $2.60 - 58.1%
The broker thinks the company is taking the right steps to sort out both its near term cash flow issues, while building the platform to deliver on its on prior growth expectations to 110mtpa.
But the stock is still trading at a significant premium to the broker's valuation and target price, so rumours of a Chinese funding deal that will allow it to deliver on the aforementioned issues is really needed just to get back to level with prior expectations.
So while things may be starting to look a little better for Fortescue, it seems the broker wants things to actually be a little better before it shifts from its Sell call.
RBS Australia 18/08/2009 5 Sell $2.89 - 42.2%
Target $2.89 (was $2.09). The company has agreed to a 35% price cut with China, which the broker views as a good outcome.
There is also scope within the agreement for some financing for an expansion of production but even allowing for this the broker sees the stock as expensive at current levels.
While its price target has increased the broker retains its Sell rating.
Macquarie 18/08/2009 5 Underperform $2.05 - 100.5%
The broker has long argued that the market is seriously overpricing Fortescue by pricing in ambitious expansion plans with little heed given to the risks involved. More recently it has argued the market had been buying up the shares based on a rising spot iron ore price while FMG was selling iron ore closer to the new contract price.
That reality is now apparent, as FMG has settled contracts at a price lower than the recent Japanese price settlement with the bigger players. This leads the broker to reduce forecast earnings by 10%.
No change to Underperform.
Citi 18/08/2009 5 Sell, High Risk $3.30 - 24.5%
Citi notes Fortescue Metals has reached an iron-ore price agreement with the Chinese but is lukewarm on the deal, which the broker observes is below benchmark with other steel producers.
Citi maintains its Sell rating and target price.
JP Morgan 18/08/2009 5 Underweight $2.07 - 98.6%
Target $2.07 (was $2.04). The broker notes the company has settled on prices with Chinese buyers and also agreed to a financing deal to help with its planned production expansion.
Factoring this into its model the broker sees minimal valuation impact from the expansion at present and so it retains its Underweight rating with only a minor change in price target.
UBS 11/08/2009 5 Sell $3.30 - 24.5%
Lower realised pricing lead to a lower than expected result, UBS says.
However, FY10 profit forecasts have been lifted by 5% to US$450m following minor changes, the analysts add.
The stock is stretched on valuation, UBS says, but there is upside risk if iron ore prices continue to rally. |
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Ribbon of Life: 我的热带之旅 (2010-8-29) tritri 
发表于 2009-8-17 23:17
