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CNBC：
ANZ: Maintain at 5.8%
ANZ is maintaining full-year GDP growth forecast at 5.8% for now, although it has downgraded China’s first-quarter growth from 5.9% to 5.0%.
“Industrial activity and exports will decrease due to a decrease in the number of working days,” ANZ economists said. “Supply chain activity will be interrupted as Wuhan is a large industrial hub in central China.”
The economists are estimating a loss of 3.5 working days in the first quarter of 2020.
Citi: Downgrades from 5.8% to 5.5%
Citigroup economists are expecting China’s full-year growth to slow from their previous forecast of 5.8% to 5.5%.
They said the negative economic impact will likely be concentrated in the first quarter of the year.
“Carefully calibrated policy interventions will be critical to mitigate the economic shock and maintain social stability,” they added in a note.
Economist Intelligence Unit: Downgrades from 5.9% to 4.9-5.4%
The EIU said the outbreak could reduce real GDP growth in 2020 by 0.5 to 1 percentage point from its baseline forecast of 5.9% if the outbreak develops into an epidemic comparable to SARS.
“The government will implement restrictions on travel and shipments, which will cause disruptions to business activity,” said Imogen Page-Jarrett, a research analyst.
“If the outbreak becomes an epidemic, rising expenditure on healthcare for local governments will limit room for spending in other areas,” Page-Jarrett added.
“Plans for infrastructure building and other forms of stimulus aimed at putting a floor under economic growth this year could be put on hold.”
While sectors like travel, tourism and manufacturing will be the hardest hit, some sectors like pharmaceuticals, online entertainment and e-commerce may pick up. Car sales may also get a boost as consumers stay away from public transport, he said.
Macquarie: Downgrades from 5.9% to 5.6%
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