RBA 的 警铃响起！Alarm bells at loan cutbacks

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Alarm bells at loan cutbacks

Fleur Leyden
来源太阳报
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24986913-664,00.html

January 31, 2009 12:00am

BANKS have scaled back lending to business and consumers for the first time since the 1990s recession, heightening the prospect of a big interest rate cut next week.

Economists said a rate cut had become a virtual certainty with the surprise lending data from the Reserve Bank providing fresh evidence Australia's economy was sliding into recession.

TD Securities senior strategist Joshua Williamson said the figures should "start the alarm bells sounding" inside the Reserve Bank and Federal Government.

"The last time this happened was back in 1991 and 1992, when Australia was dealing with its previous recession," said Mr Williamson. "There should now be nothing in the way of the RBA delivering a large interest rate cut next Tuesday and signalling a desire to do more of the same at future meetings."

The RBA figures reveal private sector lending fell 0.3 per cent in December, bucking the market's expectation of a 0.5 per cent rise, and a reversal of the 0.4 per cent gain in November.

On an annual basis, credit grew only 6.7 per cent, a sharp fall from the 16 per cent-plus growth rate at the start of last year.

Business lending fell 1.1 per cent, its first fall since February 2004, as businesses pulled back on new investments as the economy slows.

"Our expectation had always been for a sharp slowdown in business credit growth, but we admit this decline is now occurring earlier than we thought," said ANZ senior economist Katie Dean.

The data also revealed personal lending had fallen 1.1 per cent in December while housing lending - although supported by the expanded first home owners grant - rose only 0.4 per cent.

Last week, the Rudd Government launched a $4 billion fund, backed by the country's big four banks, to help commercial property investors refinance foreign bank loans they are unable to roll over.

But business has intensified calls for the Government to deliver a fresh round of stimulus, with a new package expected as early as next week.

"Ideally this should include a mix of tax cuts - to help boost household cash flows at a time of extreme strain; an increase in the pension and increased spending on productive infrastructure," said AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver.

Citi chief economist Stephen Halmarick said the latest lending data reinforced the need for the Government to "fire up" its policy response to the economic downturn.

"We expect more measures to address credit availability for businesses, 100 basis points of easing next week by the RBA, accelerated income tax cuts and increased spending by the . . . governments," he said.