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很多不错的历史数据不要浪费了，我摘出来了，谢谢上传的tx
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Between 1970 and 2003, Australian real house prices rose by over 3 per cent per annum. On a
quality-adjusted basis, house prices rose by about 2.3 per cent per annum. Over this period,
there were four house price booms: 1972-74, 1979-81, 1987-89 and 1996 to 2003.
1972-74: This period was characterised by high income growth, rising commodity prices with
the first oil crisis, high migration, and negative real mortgage rates. The combination of high
inflation, full negative gearing and no capital gains tax produced high returns to investors.
1979-81: The second oil crisis sparked a renewed commodity price and income boom; real
interest rates were low; the policy setting continued to be favourable for investors.
1987-89: There was high growth in income and in migrants. The collapse of the stock market
in September 1987 sparked a flow of funds into housing. However, unlike in earlier booms,
nominal and real interest rates were high.
1996-2003: This period was again characterised by high growth in income and migrants (at
least later in the period). Nominal interest rates were especially low. Investor demand for
housing was high. The boom appeared to get a second wind from the fall in world stock
markets and from favourable policy settings for investors, including negative gearing
combined with high marginal tax rates and a perceived lowering of the CGT.
There is a strong negative relationship between real house prices and real mortgage:
a one percentage point rise /fall in the real mortgage rate will lead to a fall/rise in house prices
of 5.4 per cent on average. |
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辣S人不偿命的自制辣翻天蒜蓉辣椒酱 (2010-3-18) bluesummer 
发表于 2009-1-6 19:01
