Alan Kohler关于bear market rally的评论 (12月4日 Eureka Report)

kingsford

节选.

Bear markets are always full of big trading rallies, especially after a major selloff...It’s important, however, to understand the lessons of the past. First, just because the market fell back today doesn’t mean the rally is over; second, if the rally continues to build that doesn’t mean the market has bottomed; and finally, it may not matter much for investment returns if the market has, indeed, bottomed...
Here’s what happened during those three previous times with which the current situation is being compared:

1. 1930s. The market fell about 90% from 1929 to 1932, rallied 111% in a few months in late 1932 to a level that was “only” 80% down from the peak, and then held that December 1932 level for 10 years. During that decade there five bull runs that averaged 93%. One of them, between 1935 and 1937, produced a gain of 131%. The 10-year return from late 1932 was zero. [Note by Kingsford: As mentioned before, there was also the 46% rebound of late 1929 to early 1930. And it took 25 years to go back to the 1929 peak point. So the 25 year return from 1929 peak was also zero.]

2. 1970s. Again the market finished the 1970s roughly where it started, although that, at least, included the decline as well as the rise. The bear market lasted two years and saw the index fall 55%. During that time there were 8 rallies of more than 10%. From the bottom in early 1975, there were two massive rallies, of 53% and 35%, and the market then held that level for five years, until the bull market of 1980-81.

3. 1990s Japan. The Nikkei took two years to fall from 40,000 to 15,000, from December 1989 to June 1992. It was still at 15,000 in July 2000, having produced two 30% and two 50% trading rallies during the previous eight years. But between July 2000 and April 2003, the Nikkei halved again, falling below 8000. It’s currently at 8345 – as it was in 1983.

In summary, it may be that the lesson from those periods is that massive corrections associated with widespread deleveraging are followed by long “trading markets”, when a buy and hold investment strategy doesn’t work and the only way to make a three to five-year return is to trade the rallies. The alternative is to buy and hold for 10 years or more (and in the case of Japan, a lot more)

[ 本帖最后由 kingsford 于 2008-12-5 09:37 编辑 ]

jialiren

谢谢分享:)