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前天的澳洲第一大报《悉尼晨锋报》社论，评价还是比较中肯的，我全文翻译如下：
中国的世纪开幕式
北京上空的烟雾依然沉重，尽管中国政府竭尽所能却收效不大，但这些烟尘恰恰是中国经济高速发展的后遗症。在被西方资本主义国家远远抛在后面近两个世纪之后，中国如今正以惊人的速度迈向未来，中国人当然不想减慢自己前进的步伐，澳洲也不愿意看到中国经济放缓，整个世界也不应该如此。
北京奥运会或许正是中国在二十一世纪开始走向辉煌的一个标志。各国政要蜂拥而至，数量远超以往任何一届奥运会就已彰显出他们意识到一个新纪元即将降临。据推测，中国将在二十年内超越美国成为全球最大经济体，在可预见的本世纪内中国也将成为世界超级大国，中国的崛起对世界和地区安全都将产生重要影响。一个由中国引领的世界看起来将和我们一直所习惯的相当不同。
两个世纪以来，西方列强主导世界，制定民主理念让其它国家亦步亦趋。这次中国并没有这种模式，相反，无论在国内国内外，无论是其对人权的压制，对外来投资者缺乏透明，还是对于法治的漠视，中国政府都备受非议。
美国总统布什周二就重申了西方的看法，希望中国沿着民主的路线进行改革。他说，“我们并非将西方价值观强加于人，但希望中国人民能表达自己的看法。”应当公平地指出，美国独立机构PEW一项调查显示，目前中国人民对其政府所指引的方向非常满意。
相比之下，澳洲总理陆克文比布什要现实和适度得多了。他说，“我们不可能让几个世纪以来的问题都在几天之内获得解决。”
香港、澳门沦为殖民地以及日本侵华的历史耻辱刚被抹去不久，当前中国民族主义思潮有所泛起；台湾问题同样悬而未决，中国公众的态度不会在一夕之间改变。
中国日益强大意味着西方围堵政策的终结。中国既不能被边缘化，或者被控制，或者被忽略，那么它就必须被世界所接纳。就从这一点而言，中国热情拥抱奥运是一个良好的开端，西方应放眼长远的未来。
The opening ceremony for China's coming century
August 09, 2008 Editorial from Sydney Morning Herald
THE smog hanging over Beijing as the Olympic Games open has bemused athletes and onlookers, particularly those from Australia, who find anything other than clear blue skies unsettling. The thick haze comes from many sources, from cooking fires to cars and coal-fired power stations. The Chinese authorities have done what they can to mitigate it but so far, at least, it has proved unstoppable. Left behind by the capitalist West for two centuries, China has now caught up. Smog is the exhaust as China's economy accelerates, with astonishing speed, into the future. The Chinese certainly do not want to slow down. Nor does Australia want it to. Nor should the world.
The Olympic Games in Beijing may well mark the start of China's global ascendancy in the 21st century. The array of national leaders who have made their way to the Olympic city - many more than have attended previous games - shows they sense a new era is dawning. Within two decades, according to some projections, China's economy will pass the United States' to be the largest on the planet. With money comes power, and this century may also see China become the leading superpower. However things turn out, the rise of China will continue to have consequences for world and regional security. A world in which China is the leading player will look rather different from the one we are accustomed to.
For two centuries, the world has been led by Western countries which (though they have not always lived up to it) have set a democratic ideal for other countries to follow. China offers no such model. It has plenty of critics - inside and outside the country. Its repression of human rights, the lack of transparency for foreign investors, and its patchy respect for the rule of law all play badly in countries where democratic freedoms and a capitalist economy are the norm. The US President, George Bush, in his speech in Bangkok on Thursday, reiterated the Western case, in broad terms, for China to reform itself along democratic lines. "We press for openness and justice, not to impose our beliefs, but to allow the Chinese people to express theirs." (Chinese citizens, it is fair to point out, are very happy with their Government's direction just now, according to a Pew Centre survey.) Australia's Kevin Rudd, before he left for Beijing, promised similarly to raise human rights in any talks with China's leaders. But as for expecting rapid change, "Let's not overstate it. You're not going to turn the events of centuries around in the matter of a few days." Mr Rudd is both more modest and more realistic than the US President. China's shrill and defensive response to pro-Tibet demonstrations during the Olympic torch relay showed it to be extremely sensitive to criticism, and prone to react badly. China, moreover, brings a long, nationalistic view of its own history to its dealings with the West. The shame of the colonisation of Hong Kong and Macau by Western powers, and the invasion by Japan has only recently been expunged.
The status of Taiwan is still up in the air, and an irritant to China's relations with the rest of the world. Chinese public opinion is carefully managed to nurture this view of things. Those attitudes will not change soon.
China's growing strength means the end of Western attempts at containment. Nor can it be otherwise sidelined or controlled or ignored. It must be accepted. With that in mind, its enthusiastic embrace of the Olympics is an excellent portent. Though both Beijing and its critics have seized on the Games as an opportunity for propaganda, prudent observers should see through the smog of assertion and counter-assertion, and take the longer view.
China will not be transformed by nagging from outside, however well-intended - any more than its critics will be convinced by China's propaganda. It is the forces of capitalist development unleashed by Deng Xiaoping decades ago that will over time - perhaps a long time, perhaps with disappointments and defeats along the way - align it closer with the pluralist, open values of Western democracy, the values which produced the modern Olympic Games as an arena for friendly competition between nations. They will do so because it is that way that peace and prosperity lie. |
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