关于房价的思考和疑惑

飘啊飘

原帖由 patricb 于 2010-3-26 20:55 发表

存了几个星期就坚持不下去，现在只能坚持贴这个了，至少以后可以回顾一下。

网页链接？？
谢谢

小茉莉

因为房产负扣税制度和放开海外投资，内忧外患下，房地产的定价机制已由消费导向转变为投资导向。认清楚这一定，就不难看出现在房价的走势了。

如果想要扭转目前的趋势，有些事情就必须要转变。

全世界任何一个开放的房产市场都有可能遭遇国际买家。海外买家热衷澳洲大陆，人傻钱多经济稳而已，无他。

patricb

Weekly Auction & Sales Results, Market Overview
Saturday April 24th 2010



Today there were 470 auctions reported of which 389 sold resulting in a clearance rate of 83 per cent.

There were 81 homes passed in, of which 45 were passed in on a vendors bid.

This weekend last year saw a slightly higher clearance rate - 85 per cent - however there was only 165 auctions. In 2008 the clearance rate was 67 per cent from 372 auctions.

Listings for the next three weekends are very high for this time of the year with around 2,400 auctions expected. The high number of listings is a clear sign of confidence from vendors, confidence that judging by the results so far this year is not misplaced.

All the market indicators suggest the market will remain solid through autumn and winter.



Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 470
Last weekend:  892
This time last year: 146

S Sold at Auction: 317

SB Sold before Auction: 72
SA Sold after Auction: 0
Passed in: 81
Passed in on vendor's bid: 45



Clearance rate: 83%

Postponed: 2
Withdrawn: 0



PS Private Sales: 649

Total Volume (Auctions): $274.71mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $300.02mil

Total Auctions Houses: 336
Clearance Rate: 84%
Median Price: $650,000
Total Value: $210,664,850

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 126
Clearance Rate: 82%
Median Price: $480,750
Total Value: $56,232,636

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 6
Clearance Rate: 33%
Median Price: $640,000
Total Value: $1,280,000

ORANGEHOUSE

專家稱房價將停滯

2010年5月10日

由於最新利率上漲對買家的過濾作用開始顯現，房地產專家認爲房市終於開始放緩。

儘管利率在過去8個月中上升了6次，但對房屋的需求仍然超過了加息帶來的額外費用。在過去的一年中，許多城市的買家們將房價推高了20%。

advertisement

但證據現在開始表明正出現放緩趨勢。澳大利亞最大的房地產集團Ray White報告稱今年第一季度營業額與去年相比只增加了8%。Ray White聯席主席Brian White表示，這是自全球金融危機以來最小的增幅，並且繼續延續到4月。

他說，從4月的結果來看，加息似乎影響了房市的活動。儲備銀行放緩住房市場活動的目的看起來已經達到。

獨立利率監測機構RateCity稱，大約27,000個家庭已經錯過了供樓按揭還款，在最新的利率上升後預計還會增加數千人。RateCity 稱，拖欠90日以上的證券化住房貸款數量已經從1月份的0.05%上升到了目前的0.6%。

但市場仍有樂觀情緒。Bankwest和澳洲按揭與信貸協會的一項調查結果顯示76%的受訪者認為本季度的房價會繼續攀升。

新聞來源：《網上唐人街》

patricb

Sunday May 9th 2010

The clearance rate from this weekend's auctions was 78 per cent, only the second time in 12 months that it has been below 80 per cent.

The impact of 6 rate rises, affordability concerns and the unseasonally high stock levels are clearly having an impact on demand.

There were 841 auctions reported this weekend of which 655 sold and 186 were passed in, 121 of those on a vendor's bid.

The result compares well to this time last year when there were 439 auctions and a clearance rate of 76 per cent.

Auction numbers remain high over the next three weekends with just under 2400 homes listed for sale.




Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 841
Last weekend: 884
This time last year: 439

S Sold at Auction: 539
SB Sold before Auction: 114
SA Sold after Auction: 2

Passed in: 186
Passed in on vendor's bid: 121

Clearance rate: 78%

Postponed: 2
Withdrawn: 3
Auctions with no result: 65

PS Private Sales: 688

Total Volume (Auctions): $517.25mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $318.75mil

Total Auctions Houses: 553
Clearance Rate: 77%
Median Price: $768,750
Total Value: $371,622,305

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 273
Clearance Rate: 80%
Median Price: $540,000
Total Value: $136,705,299

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 14
Clearance Rate: 71%
Median Price: $261,500
Total Value: $3,109,500

patricb

It's been a long time since last time when auction clearance rate was below 80%, let's see for the next few weeks.

patricb

Sunday May 16th 2010

The clearance rate remained in the mid 70's this weekend, a
very good result given the unseasonably high number of auctions this
May. Stock levels are so high that there have only been three months
with more auctions, October 2007, December 2007 and 2009, all in
spring when around 8-900 auctions over the weekend are a regular
feature. In previous years, 2008 being a good example, stock levels
increased in autumn and winter due to confidence from vendors, the
clearance rate fell to the mid 60's.
There were a total of 701 auctions reported this weekend of which 529 sold
and 172 were passed in, 113 of those on a vendors bid. The clearance
rate was 75 per cent.
This weekend last year saw 451 auctions and a clearance rate of 83
per cent. This weekend 2008 saw 578 auctions and a clearance rate of
64 per cent.
The REIV expects around 2,600 auctions between now and the Queen's
Birthday long weekend.
Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 701
Last weekend: 871
This time last year: 451

S Sold at Auction: 426
SB Sold before Auction: 101
SA Sold after Auction: 2

Passed in: 172
Passed in on vendor's bid: 113

Clearance rate: 75%

Postponed: 3
Withdrawn: 1
Auctions with no result: 60

PS Private Sales: 594

Total Volume (Auctions): $399.58mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $276.05mil

Total Auctions Houses: 462
Clearance Rate: 76%
Median Price: $741,500
Total Value: $299,666,290

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 222
Clearance Rate: 75%
Median Price: $533,500
Total Value: $92,922,600

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 17
Clearance Rate: 71%
Median Price: $435,000
Total Value: $6,988,500

[ 本帖最后由 patricb 于 2010-5-22 12:03 编辑 ]

patricb

What will be the clearance rate today? Will it go below 70% in the near future?

BennyQ

估计今天就会跌倒70%以下，let's  see!

该用户不存在

原帖由 BennyQ 于 2010-5-22 12:16 发表
估计今天就会跌倒70%以下，let's  see!

不得哦
Saturday May 22nd 2010
The clearance rate today was 75 per cent, a result that is consistent with the last few weeks and signifies ongoing healthy demand for residential homes at auction.
Interest rates and a large number of homes on the market continues to keep the clearance rate below pre-Anzac day norm of over 80 per cent.
There were 704 auctions reported today, of which 525 sold and 179 were passed in, 107 of those on a vendors bid.
This weekend last year saw 475 auctions and clearance rate of 81 per cent.
Vendors will have plenty of opportunity and choice in the next two weekends with just over 1860 auctions scheduled, an unprecedented number for this time of the year.
Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV






TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 704
Last weekend: 703
This time last year: 465

S Sold at Auction: 431
SB Sold before Auction: 192
SA Sold after Auction: 2

Passed in: 179
Passed in on vendor's bid: 107

Clearance rate: 75%

Postponed: 3
Withdrawn: 0
Auctions with no result: 110

PS Private Sales: 570

Total Volume (Auctions): $380.87mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $281.61mil

Total Auctions Houses: 448
Clearance Rate: 76%
Median Price: $688,500
Total Value: $265,790,200

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 242
Clearance Rate: 72%
Median Price: $566,250
Total Value: $110,295,100

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 14
Clearance Rate: 64%
Median Price: $460,000
Total Value: $4,784,500

  



House Sales in Detail


TOP 5 HOUSES

1. 2A Mcevoy Street, Kew $2,330,000
2. 7 Curral Road, Elsternwick $2,056,500
3. 15 Winter Street, Malvern $2,010,000
4. 21 Dow Street, South Melbourne $1,814,000
5. 6 Higinbotham Street, Brighton $1,800,000



TOP 5 BARGAIN HOUSES

1. 55 Daisy Street, Essendon $245,000
2. 25 Olive Road, Eumemmerring $291,500
3. 9 Windoo Street, Frankston North $300,000
4. 18 Crossley Crescent, Coolaroo $330,000
5. 14 Sunlander Way, Doreen $335,000



Flat/Apartment Sales in Detail


TOP 5 APARTMENTS
1. 4/93 Grange Road, Toorak $1,900,000
2. 3 Gatehouse Place, Brighton $1,510,000
3. 2 Highfield Grove, Kew $1,280,000
4. 23B Collins Street, Ormond $1,230,000
5. 2/127 Ormond Esplanade, Elwood $1,200,000


TOP 5 BARGAIN APARTMENTS

1. 20/146 Power Street, Hawthorn $230,000
2. 5/112 Punt Road, Prahran $266,000
3. 6/22 Bishop Street, Kingsville $278,000
4. 11/6 Campbell Street, Epping $280,000
5. 6/370 Melrose Drive, Tullamarine $285,000

[ 本帖最后由 该用户不存在 于 2010-5-22 22:09 编辑 ]

patricb

70%-80%之间，还可以算是买卖平衡，当然现在看不少成交价格已经没有前段时间那么疯狂了，中介也说是清闲了不少。刚性部分的购买总还要持续一段时间，要是跌到70％一下，买家的话语权就不小了。

patricb

Week ending Sunday May 30th 2010

There has been a shift in the residential property market in Melbourne over the past month, with six successive interest rates and unseasonably high auction numbers having an impact.

The number of homes on offer at auction is at the same level we normally see in the spring selling season and, in that context, clearance rates remain very healthy, this does provide buyers with a better opportunity than was the case earlier this year.

The clearance rate from the 924 auctions reported this weekend was 73% per cent.

Of the 924 auctions there was a total of 631 sold and 250 passed in, 167 of those on a vendors bid.

On this weekend last year there were 667 auctions and a clearance rate of 82 per cent

There will be around 900 more auctions next weekend and then a record 1000 the weekend after the Queens Birthday long weekend.

Enzo Raimondo

CEO REIV






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 924
Last weekend: 813
This time last year: 667

S Sold at Auction: 541
SB Sold before Auction: 129
SA Sold after Auction: 4

Passed in: 250
Passed in on vendor's bid: 167

Clearance rate: 73%

Postponed: 2
Withdrawn: 0
Auctions with no result: 73

PS Private Sales: 685

Total Volume (Auctions): $497.27mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $322.03mil

Total Auctions Houses: 582
Clearance Rate: 73%
Median Price: $724,000
Total Value: $359,837,413

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 328
Clearance Rate: 74%
Median Price: $518,000
Total Value: $132,235,250

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 13
Clearance Rate: 69%
Median Price: $501,000
Total Value: $4,462,000

patricb

Weekly Auction & Sales Results, Market Overview
Week ending Saturday June 5th 2010

The clearance rate from today’s 808 reported auctions was 70 per  
cent, a good result given Melbourne has never seen as many auctions  
held on a winter weekend.

From an overall perspective the residential market is more in  
balance than it was earlier this year and that means that buyers are  
facing the best conditions in over a year. This is likely to continue  
with over 1000 auctions the weekend after Queens Birthday.

There were 808 auctions reported today of which 594 sold and 244 were  
passed in, 150 of those on a vendors bid.

This weekend last year saw 166 auctions and a clearance rate of 81  
per cent.

Next weekend there are around 300 auctions scheduled.

Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV







--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 808
Last weekend: 942
This time last year: 164

S Sold at Auction: 467
SB Sold before Auction: 95
SA Sold after Auction: 2

Passed in: 244
Passed in on vendor's bid: 150

Clearance rate: 70%

Postponed: 3
Withdrawn: 2
Auctions with no result: 83

PS Private Sales: 645

Total Volume (Auctions): $407.73mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $295.64mil

Total Auctions Houses: 520
Clearance Rate: 71%
Median Price: $708,750
Total Value: $296,564,738


Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 276
Clearance Rate: 70%
Median Price: $500,500
Total Value: $109,991,250

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 12
Clearance Rate: 25%
Median Price: $453,000
Total Value: $1,173,000

[ 本帖最后由 patricb 于 2010-6-5 19:34 编辑 ]

patricb

跌到70%了，看来6字头也不远了。不过成交量较去年还是大很多。

vichybaby

LZ, 请问clearance rate 下跌但是成交量还是比较大说明什么？

patricb

Sunday June 13th 2010


The clearance rate improved this weekend due to the lower number of homes offered for auction over the long weekend.

There were 268 results reported this weekend of which 207 sold and 61 were passed in, 31 of those on a vendors bid. The clearance rate was 77 per cent.

This weekend last year, which was not a long weekend, saw 527 auctions and a clearance rate of 85 per cent.

Next weekend will feature a record number of auctions for June and winter with around 1000 homes to be auctioned.

Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 268
Last weekend: 908
This time last year: 527

S Sold at Auction: 139
SB Sold before Auction: 63
SA Sold after Auction: 5

Passed in: 61
Passed in on vendor's bid: 31

Clearance rate: 77%


Postponed: 1
Withdrawn: 1
Auctions with no result: 72

PS Private Sales: 518



Total Volume (Auctions): $133.25mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $238.52mil

Total Auctions Houses: 171
Clearance Rate: 78%
Median Price: $626,250
Total Value: $94,969,418

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 89
Clearance Rate: 76%
Median Price: $490,500
Total Value: $36,575,588

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 8
Clearance Rate: 62%
Median Price: $401,000
Total Value: $1,707,000

patricb

Sunday June 20th 2010


Compared with previous years there has been a record number of auctions this weekend, providing buyers with a good opportunities.

These conditions are expected to continue for the next few weeks.

Due to the record number of auctions the clearance rate was lower than was the case in previous weeks with 68 per cent of all homes auctioned selling.

There were 942 results reported this weekend with 638 homes selling and 304 being passed in, 199 of those on a vendors bid.

This weekend last year saw 540 auctions and a clearance rate of 86 per cent.

The REIV expects around 880 auctions next weekend.

Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV







--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 942
Last weekend: 323
This weekend last year: 520


S Sold at Auction: 539
SB Sold before Auction: 98
SA Sold after Auction: 1

Passed in: 304
Passed in on vendor's bid: 199

Clearance rate: 68%

TOTAL AUCTIONS
This week: 942
Yesterday: 49
Last Sunday: 11
This weekend last month: 887
This weekend last year: 540

CLEARANCE RATES:
Weekend: 68%
Yesterday: 82%
Last Sunday: 73%
This weekend last month: 76%
This weekend last year: 86%

Postponed: 5
Withdrawn: 4
Auctions with no result: 93

PS Private Sales: 449

Total Volume (Auctions): $494.36mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $217.52mil

Total Auctions Houses: 583
Clearance Rate: 67%
Median Price: $745,500
Total Value: $346,689,150

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 322
Clearance Rate: 66%
Median Price: $520,000
Total Value: $123,036,500

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 37
Clearance Rate: 92%
Median Price: $647,500
Total Value: $24,631,500

patricb

Sunday June 27th 2010


The clearance rate from this weekend’s 827 auctions is 65 per cent, a result that clearly shows the impact of high stock levels throughout June.

The outlook for July reveals a lower number of homes offered for auction, around 550-600 per weekend and less opportunities for buyers.

This weekend last year saw 451 auctions and clearance rate of 87 per cent.

There have been 827 auctions this weekend with a total of 540 selling and 287 passed in, 178 of those on a vendors bid.

The REIV expects 590 auctions next weekend.


Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 827
Last Weekend: 1012
This time last year: 451

S Sold at Auction: 439
SB Sold before Auction: 99
SA Sold after Auction: 2

Passed in: 287
Passed in on vendor's bid: 178



Clearance rate: 65%

Postponed: 2
Withdrawn: 5
Auctions with no result: 75

PS Private Sales: 576

Total Volume (Auctions): $388.89mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $278.49mil


Total Auctions Houses: 540
Clearance Rate: 64%
Median Price: $715,000
Total Value: $273,505,088

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 276
Clearance Rate: 68%
Median Price: $515,000
Total Value: $109,576,130

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 11
Clearance Rate: 73%
Median Price: $571,250
Total Value: $5,811,000

patricb

Sunday July 4th 2010


There were 539 auctions reported this weekend with a total of 355 selling and 174 being passed in, 95 of those on a vendors bid.  The clearance rate from today’s auctions is 67 per cent.  This weekend last year saw 292 auctions reported and a clearance rate of 82 per cent.  Next weekend the REIV expects 550 auctions.

Enzo Raimondo

CEO REIV








--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 539
Last Weekend: 877
This time last year: 292

S Sold at Auction: 292
SB Sold before Auction: 63
SA Sold after Auction: 0

Passed in: 184
Passed in on vendor's bid: 101

Clearance rate: 66%

Postponed: 1
Withdrawn: 3
Auctions with no result: 50

PS Private Sales: 616

Total Volume (Auctions): $226.85mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $290.19mil


Total Auctions Houses: 313
Clearance Rate: 65%
Median Price: $640,250
Total Value: $142,949,750

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 208
Clearance Rate: 66%
Median Price: $516,000
Total Value: $74,147,700

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 18
Clearance Rate: 67%
Median Price: $391,000
Total Value: $9,753,000

allenoak

还会涨

patricb

Weekly Auction & Sales Results, Market Overview
Sunday July 11th 2010


There were 528 auctions reported this weekend with a total of 361 selling and 167 being passed in, 96 of those on a vendors bid. The clearance rate from this weekend’s auctions is 68 per cent. This weekend last year saw 293 auctions reported and a clearance rate of 85%.  Next weekend the REIV expects 590 auctions.

Enzo Raimondo

CEO, REIV
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 528
Last Weekend: 585
This time last year: 293

S Sold at Auction: 296
SB Sold before Auction: 65
SA Sold after Auction: 0

Passed in: 167
Passed in on vendor's bid: 96

Clearance rate: 68%

Postponed: 6
Withdrawn: 1
Auctions with no result: 67

PS Private Sales: 578

Total Volume (Auctions): $230.62mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $278.93mil

Total Auctions Houses: 304
Clearance Rate: 68%
Median Price: $642,500
Total Value: $150,328,000

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 209
Clearance Rate: 69%
Median Price: $492,000
Total Value: $76,660,750

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 14
Clearance Rate: 71%
Median Price: $265,000
Total Value: $3,456,500

patricb

Saturday July 17th 2010

The performance of the residential auction market improved marginally this weekend with a clearance rate of 72 per cent compared to last weekends 67 per cent.

There were a total of 497 auction results reported of which 357 were sold, 140 were passed in with 88 of those being passed in on a vendors bid.

This weekends result will be welcomed by vendors with homes listed for auction in the next few weeks as it shows that demand is still healthy and buyers still very active.

This weekend last year featured substantially fewer auctions with 293 auctions held and a clearance rate of 85 per cent recorded.

Listings remain high with 1200 homes to be offered at auction in the next fortnight.

Enzo Raimondo


CEO REIV






TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 497
Last Weekend: 565
This time last year: 341

S Sold at Auction: 305
SB Sold before Auction: 52
SA Sold after Auction: 0

Passed in: 140
Passed in on vendor's bid: 88

Clearance rate: 72%

Postponed: 2
Withdrawn: 3
Auctions with no result: 71

PS Private Sales: 575

Total Volume (Auctions): $239mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $265.23mil

Total Auctions Houses: 319
Clearance Rate: 72%
Median Price: $705,000
Total Value: $167,398,850

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 167
Clearance Rate: 72%
Median Price: $514,000
Total Value: $69,668,750

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 10
Clearance Rate: 60%
Median Price: $293,250
Total Value: $1,936,500

mxgong

这势头，年底之前还要有5%的增长啊

十年五套投资房

原帖由 mxgong 于 2010-7-18 11:37 发表
这势头，年底之前还要有5%的增长啊

太保守了，起码要来个10%

kvwb

如果没有大的风波的话，利率又在这个水平的话，估计墨尔本再涨5%以上是铁定的了

现在移民局憋了几个月，又在大发签证了，等8-10月大把移民长登；

加上大选提前到8月；

加上STOCK不会持续维持高于历史同期近一倍

估计有戏看

like

原帖由 liuhaiyang 于 2009-8-18 14:07 发表
这个帖子好，楼主开了个好头，专业人士就是不一样，
几年前我第一次买房的时候，有朋友就是持反对意见，说几年前如何如何，我和他们说不要看以前，就看现在的悉尼，墨尔本的房价不会比悉尼低，至少是持平，悉尼的平均房价是多少，墨尔本就 ...

同感，支持！！大胆预言也算我一个！

kvwb

Property to keep on booming, says expert SIMON JOHANSON
July 24, 2010

COMMERCIAL property rents will double and residential property prices will rise by up to 40 per cent during the next four to five years, a respected economist said yesterday in a bullish forecast for the Australian economy.

BIS Shrapnel's chief economist, Dr Frank Gelber, who was speaking in Melbourne at a Real Estate Institute of Victoria lunch, said the global financial crisis had done the Australian economy a ''huge favour'' by crimping risks in the market.

''We're not over-geared, we're not overvalued and we're not oversupplied,'' Dr Gelber said.

''I can't remember in the last 30 years a time when I have been more comfortable and optimistic about investment in the market.''

Problems in Europe and America were unlikely to affect Australia's economic outlook, he said. ''They are real problems … [but] they won't affect us a great deal,'' he said. ''Our recovery now is already well entrenched and they won't stop it.''

Almost 80 per cent of Australia's exports go to Asia, Dr Gelber said. ''We're much more dependent on what happens in China.''

''We're talking about average growth over next five years of GDP of about 3 to 3.5 per cent,'' he said.

Dr Gelber said that while the GFC's impact wasn't yet over it had triggered a correction following the financial engineering boom. ''That correction is pretty much over and we're starting to see the beginnings of a pick-up again.''

Australia's commercial property leasing markets will continue to tighten while banks still restricted lending to builders and developers.

This would push up rents to the point where building activity started again, Dr Gelber said.

''Melbourne commercial rents in effective rent terms will double over the next five to six years,'' he said. ''There's a boom coming in commercial.''

Dr Gelber dismissed the notion the housing market was suffering from a ''bubble'' effect.

''At the end of the day, we haven't got a bubble in our residential market. We're under-supplied not oversupplied. We need to build more, and we will. [House] prices will go up another 30 per cent over the next three years,'' he said.

[ 本帖最后由 kvwb 于 2010-7-27 20:07 编辑 ]

hsqhugh

悉尼今天清空率71%了 24/07/2010

jeffery123

墨尔本69

zyan0000

抑制房价过快上涨