为什么比特币 ？ 进展和争论

Hetbert

Bitmex研究人员：BTC不会替代法币

据Bitcoin消息，BTC商品交易所Bitmex针对其VIP客户发起了一项研究。研究人员发现BTC的通缩特征吸引了投机，并且有人将其与支付系统联系起来。但研究人员预测，BTC不会替代法币，BTC只是一个“有用的商机”，那些认为BTC会带来经济繁荣的人是“幼稚的”。



Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange (Bitmex) released proprietary research reportedly geared toward their VIPs. Researchers find bitcoin core’s (BTC) deflationary aspects interesting for speculation and as a “payment system,” but predict it will ultimately not usurp government paper, describing the BTC phenomenon as simply a “useful niche,” and those who “think Bitcoin would result in a more prosperous economic system” as “naive.” It’s a strange position to take as a bitcoin exchange.

Also read: Philippines’ Crypto Wallet Reaches 5 Million Users, Adds More Coins

Before Weirdly Turning, Bitmex Praises BTC’s Deflationary Aspects

In conclusion, Bitmex researchers lukewarmly laud bitcoin core’s merits, arguing how “to many, Bitcoin’s ability to decouple debt from money and thereby result in a deflationary climate without the deflationary debt spiral problem is the point, rather than a bug.” Still, Bitcoin Economics – Deflationary Debt Spiral, published recently by the exchange for its VIPs, refers to those who believe bitcoin “would result in a more prosperous economic system” as being “naive.” Piling on in this manner, they continue, “Bitcoin is a new and unique system, which is likely to cause more economic problems, perhaps unexpected or new ones.”

Bitcoin Economics – Deflationary Debt Spiral, is the final in a three part series by the Hong Kong-based Bitcoin Mercantile Exchange (Bitmex). Hot shot, risk enticed futures traders are emboldened by the exchange’s shorting ability and 100x leveraged contracts. Contracts can only be purchased and settled in bitcoin core (BTC), all without the bother of holding actual coins. Bitcoin cash, bitcoin core, ripple, ether, litecoin, cardano round out possible contract choices.

Bitmex to VIPs: Bitcoin Won’t Replace Fiat, Just a ‘Useful Niche,’ Enthusiasts 'Naive'

The report was initially released by a cranky Twitter polemicist who claimed it to be an exclusive get, designed for Bitmex’s VIPs. Days later, the exchange would publish it on their site for all to see. The report’s focus was to “examine the deflationary nature of Bitcoin and consider why this deflation may be necessary due to some of Bitcoin’s weaknesses.”

Deflation, as a matter of course, occurs when the value of money increases. In the modern West, at least, this concept has largely been only theoretically known. And then crypto. And then bitcoin. Cursory surveys, and perhaps the reader’s own experience, revealed during 2017 the tension many bitcoiners faced. Used to government tickets eventually and methodically losing value through inflation, a bargain cut between court economists and the first to receive newly printed paper meant every incentive in the average person’s experience pointed to spending. Spend those tickets before they lose more value.

Fundamentally Different

The opposite was evident for most of last year. And this third report by Bitmex takes into consideration long held beliefs about money in this respect. “Critics have argued that history has taught us that a finite monetary supply can be a poor economic policy, resulting in or exacerbating, economic crashes. Either because people are unwilling to spend appreciating money or because the real value of debt increases, resulting in a highly indebted economy. Bitcoin proponents are often called ‘economically naive,’ for failing to have learnt these economic lessons of the past,” researchers explain.

Bitmex believes economics, when it comes to bitcoin core, are “fundamentally different” from anything preceding. “There may be unique characteristics about Bitcoin, which make it more suited to a deflationary policy,” they argue. “Alternatively, limitations or weaknesses in Bitcoin could exist, which mean that too much inflation could have negative consequences not applicable to traditional forms of money.” Bitmex to VIPs: Bitcoin Won’t Replace Fiat, Just a ‘Useful Niche,’ Enthusiasts 'Naive'

Deflation’s bad rap in the United States, for example, can be attributed to Irving Fisher’s appraisal of causes and exacerbation of the Great Depression of 1929. And the Bitmex part three meditation presents his arguments well as a chain of consequences where hoarding, or as crypto enthusiasts understand, hodling, only served to severely worsen the problem, according to Fisher. Yet, “maybe Fisher’s view on inflation was correct for the economy in the 20th century, however by 2150 technology may have fundamentally changed to such an extent that another inflation policy may be more appropriate for society,” they contend.

Turning from mere description, Bitmex researchers hit upon a rather novel concept: bitcoin is not a debt based currency, the kind government paper all over the world is. That is a fundamental difference, and it follows economies would behave differently should something like bitcoin core take hold. In a bitcoin based, deflationary economy, an economic downturn’s “impact of increases in the real value of debt could be less significant than one may think. This could make the deflationary debt spiral argument less relevant in a Bitcoin based economy,” they note.  

A Cynical, Dismissive Way to View Bitcoin’s Potential

Given BTC’s deflationary aspects, its being so fundamentally different, and how traditional economic theory is at a loss to grapple with it, Bitmex would seem to hold the coin in high esteem. No, not really. Not at all, in fact. Very near the report’s end, VIPs are given the candid, unvarnished truth as the exchange sees it. Bitcoin core is a speculative plaything, an interesting project to perhaps make some interim profit if one is positioned well.

“Much of this discussion focuses on the economics of Bitcoin, assuming Bitcoin is widely adopted, such that the inflationary dynamics have an impact on society,” the report tantelizes. Curiously, the report doesn’t account for BTC’s notorious problems as a functioning currency in terms of block size, mempool congestion, and transaction fees – a debate lived out along side BTC by bitcoin cash (BCH). Researchers do not believe BTC will be widely adopted.  

Bitmex to VIPs: Bitcoin Won’t Replace Fiat, Just a ‘Useful Niche,’ Enthusiasts 'Naive'

“In our view [wide BTC adoption] is an unlikely outcome and perhaps should be considered even more unlikely by Bitcoin’s critics. In our view, Bitcoin may satisfy a useful niche, that of making both censorship resistant and digital payments, but it’s unlikely to become the main currency in the economy. Therefore the debate about Bitcoin’s deflationary nature should be considered as largely irrelevant anyway. Hence, it is therefore somewhat odd that some critics use this as an argument against Bitcoin,” thereby negating almost the entirety of the previous report findings.

The last thought left with readers is a cynical, just-in-case principle: “if one thinks these economic problems associated with deflation have a remote chance of being relevant, like the critics indirectly imply, that would mean Bitcoin has a significant chance of becoming widely adopted and hugely successful. In that case, perhaps the sensible thing to do is buy and ‘HODL’.”

Hetbert

Hetbert 发表于 2018-6-11 17:45
Bitmex研究人员：BTC不会替代法币

据Bitcoin消息，BTC商品交易所Bitmex针对其VIP客户发起了一项研究。研究 ...

币圈吹嘘的一笔一别墅的路线路，大概是这样的：

Hetbert

中国信通院所长何宝宏：想用区块链颠覆货币纯属自杀行为



据金融界报道，日前，中国信通院云计算与大数据研究所所长何宝宏在第二届区块链新金融高峰论坛上表示，监管和创新本不相容，区块链一开始要选择弱监管场景，或者从不需要监管的领域切入，选货币等这种强监管领域创业，要么是违法的，要么纯属自杀行为。他还表示，区块链的泡沫还在不断吹大的过程中，未来很多伪区块链和伪需求项目都会死掉。

Hetbert

研究：爱尔兰约有12万人使用或交易数字货币

据irishtimes消息，研究表明，爱尔兰约有12万人使用或交易数字货币，在过去四年中增长了300%，公众对数字货币的情绪正在“从怀疑转向好奇”。

11 Jun 2018The Irish TimesMARK PAUL Business Affairs Correspondent
Irish are curious about, rather than suspicious of, cryptocurrencies
New research obtained by The Irish Times suggests about 120,000 people in Ireland own a cryptocurrency, a 300 per cent increase in the past four years.
The study also suggests that more than 180,000 people have at some stage in recent years traded or used Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency. The researchers say their survey suggests public sentiment towards cryptocurrencies is shifting “from suspicion to curiosity”.
The joint study of attitudes was carried out by Amárach Research and communications agency Red Flag. They conducted a survey last month of a representative sample of 1,000 people over the age of 16. They say it is “the first in a series” of studies examining currency and fintech innovations.
Cryptocurrencies – digital currency equivalents that are controlled by technology independently of state central banks – have garnered substantial media coverage.
This is reflected in the increased recognition among Irish people of the biggest such currency, Bitcoin, of 85 per cent, compared to less than half of adults in a separate Amárach study in 2014.
Millennials
The survey results suggest men are only slightly better disposed towards using cryptocurrencies than women. The most favourable attitudes are to be found, unsurprisingly, among 25-34 year old millennials, who are three times as likely to own a cryptocurrency than the average person.
“Cryptocurrency advocates still have a long way to go in driving higher adoption in Ireland,” said Gerard O’Neill, the chairman of Amárach. He said the upswing in interest, however, creates “ideal conditions for higher take-up”.
Deirdre Grant, managing director of Red Flag Ireland, said The level of understanding is still quite low, with one in eight respondents believing [cryptocurrencies] are used mainly by criminals.”



Bitcoin: Who really owns it, the whales or small fry?

Long-term holders cash out to short-term speculators, notes data

Sat, Jun 9, 2018, 04:00
Hannah Murphy

Some argue there is an art to trading bitcoin but others are unconvinced bitcoin millionaires show investment nous, drawing parallels with gambling

On the final day in his insurance job last week after 14 years in the sector, Donnie wore a T-shirt emblazoned with a rocket logo, the symbol for bitcoin, and the slogan “to the moon”.
The phrase, one that characterises the fervour espoused by bitcoin enthusiasts who say its price knows no bounds, was fitting.
Over five years, the 39-year-old has made enough money from trading digital currencies to pay off his mortgage, buy a Mercedes and now swap office life for managing his remaining crypto investments full-time.
“It was very euphoric...It’s been life-changing for me at this point,” says the California-based father of two, who has a cult-like Twitter following under the pen name ‘bitcoin Dad’.
Donnie is just one member of a clubby community of early investors in bitcoin who have been able to reap the benefits of its dramatic bull run, cashing out some holdings as its value more than doubled in the space of a month to peak at about $20,000 in mid-December.
He will not reveal his exact returns because his new-found wealth has already left him the victim of hacking and extortion – part and parcel of the freewheeling digital currency marketplace.
Six months after its peak, bitcoin remains the most popular cryptocurrency, though its price has sunk to about $7,500 at the time of publication. It follows that for each of the bitcoin millionaires, there have been numerous casualties; the “get rich quick” punters who entered the market a little too late.
‘Jump on bandwagon’
“These are people that see something moving up and start buying – they jump on the bandwagon,” says Campbell Harvey, a finance professor at Duke University and an investment strategy adviser for Man Group.
“Initially in the crypto space, you had people who really understood the technology. Then there was a typical bandwagon investor situation and you know how it ends – and it did.”

But how many have gained – and lost – from the bitcoin bubble? Exclusive data from blockchain research company Chainalysis provides some tantalising answers.
The Chainalysis data quantifies this distinct shift in the make-up of bitcoin owners from longer-term investors – those who held the asset for more than a year – to short-term investors who have traded more recently, by analysing how regularly coins have changed hands.
Last November – before December’s pricing peak – the amount of bitcoin held for investment was roughly three times that held by traders.
However, by April 2018, the data show the amount held by investors – about 6 million bitcoin – was much closer to the amount held by short-term speculators, with 5.1 million bitcoin.
‘Liquidity event’
Indeed, Chainalysis estimates that longer-term holders sold at least $30 billion worth of bitcoin to new speculators over the December to April period, with half of this movement taking place in December alone.
“This was an exceptional transfer of wealth,” says Philip Gradwell, Chainalysis’ chief economist, who dubs the past six months as bitcoin’s “liquidity event”.
Gradwell argues that this sudden injection of liquidity – the amount of bitcoin available for trading rose by close to 60 per cent over that period – has been a “fundamental driver” behind the recent price decline. At the same time, bitcoin trading volumes have now fallen in tandem with the prices, from close to $4 billion daily in December to $1 billion today.
So will the price of bitcoin ever surpass December’s peak? Part of the answer lies in who holds bitcoin now that the hype has died down.
Born in 2009 in the wake of the financial crisis, bitcoin is rooted in a libertarian quest for a means of exchange that is unshackled from the central banking system. Proponents – among them, computer experts and political activists – heralded the arrival of an alternative monetary system that could replace fiat currency.
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Crypto boom
But despite the recent crypto boom, there are few signs that this is happening. According to research published this month by Morgan Stanley, only four of the top 500 US ecommerce merchants accepted cryptocurrencies in the first quarter of 2018, compared with three at the beginning of 2017.
Chainalysis notes that the “vast majority” of transactions it analysed showed bitcoin being received from exchanges and rarely sent to merchant services to pay for goods or services.
Only a finite number of coin – 21 million – can be created. Of this, about 4 million are yet to be mined. Just as physical coins can be lost down the back of a sofa, so can bitcoins if users lose or forget the passwords needed to access their online wallets. The Chainalysis data separates out coins it deems to be lost or unused for years – which total 3.7 million bitcoin, worth about $28 billion.
Volatility
The proportion of bitcoin it estimates to be held by groups such as exchanges or merchant services held steady between December and April at about 2.2 million bitcoin.
Critics argue that bitcoin’s volatility and a lack of fundamental underpinnings disqualifies it as a reliable store of value, and that this is unlikely to change. This leaves droves of new opportunists dabbling in what has been dubbed a “Wild West” marketplace, with regulators still weighing up how best to tackle the space.
“Speculation remains the primary use case for these digital assets; merchant or institutional adoption does not appear to be a primary driver of price,” says Preston Byrne, an English structured finance lawyer and cryptocurrency observer.
Pure speculation
Given this breakdown in bitcoin owners, most market watchers do not rule out another rapid price run-up. However, they say this would likely be the random movement of pure speculation or market manipulation rather than anything else.

“It’s very important to stress, this is not in any sense a rational market,” says David Gerard, the author of Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain.
“It’s very thinly traded, very badly structured...and it’s stupendously manipulated,” he adds. “Anyone who goes in not realising just how manipulated the crypto markets are will get skinned.”
Some argue there is an art to trading bitcoin regardless – but it is a stressful business that takes nerves and can be addictive. Donnie, aka bitcoin Dad, puts his successes down to careful research, “patience” and avoiding the trap of obsessive, leveraged day trading.

But others are unconvinced that bitcoin millionaires actually show investment nous, drawing parallels with gambling.
“It’s the luck of the draw, where everyone who won the draw seems to feel like they deserved it for being smarter,” Vitalik Buterin, the Russian-Canadian programmer who invented the smart-contract blockchain Ethereum, said recently.
The Chainalysis data also show that the bitcoin marketplace is skewed in terms of wealth distribution. A small cluster of investors – known colloquially as “whales” – capture a hefty proportion of the market, which stands at odds with bitcoin’s mission to democratise finance. This brings its own risks.
Bitcoin wallets
Overall, some 1,600 bitcoin wallets – managed by both speculators and investors – contained at least 1,000 bitcoin each in April, according to Chainalysis, collectively holding nearly 5 million bitcoin, or close to a third of the available total.
Of those, just under 100 wallets owned by longer-term investors contained between 10,000 and 100,000 bitcoin – so between $75 million and $750 million at today’s prices.
“This concentration of wealth means that bitcoin is at risk of volatility, as the moves of a small number of people will have a large effect,” says Chainalysis’ Gradwell.
However, the situation suggests bitcoin’s volatility is “of low risk to the wider financial system”, he adds, as “only a small number of people will face large changes in crypto wealth”.
Still, there are opportunities particularly for the larger players to engage in market manipulation, due to the dearth of regulation and existence of informal over-the-counter markets – and this leaves smaller players at a disadvantage.
“When you build up a big enough position in any asset you can move the price,” says Dr Garrick Hileman, head of research at Blockchain and co-founder of Mosaic.io, a platform for market intelligence on crypto. “A number of these larger holders do communicate with each other, they know [each other], they take stock of market activity.”
Sophisticated investors
Analysts at Morgan Stanley echoed this concern in a note this month, saying that it was “noteworthy” that the more sophisticated investors were “willing to give up traditional investor rights for potentially faster liquidity”.
Nevertheless, some point out that the excitement and influx of fresh funds into the market has allowed its infrastructure to mature – albeit gradually – which could be a boon for those looking to trade bitcoin more safely in future.
Buying and selling bitcoin had traditionally been challenging for all but the most tech-savvy. As last year’s cryptocurrency frenzy heated up, however, some consumer finance businesses rushed to capitalise on the zeitgeist and offer their customers access to digital coins through apps they were already familiar with using.
Many exchanges have strengthened their due diligence processes in response to customer concerns and invested in bigger customer services teams. Transaction fees have come down as technology has improved – but hacks are still commonplace.
Institutions have also been making inroads. These include prominent US futures exchanges, such as the CME Group and Cboe Global Markets, which now offer bitcoin futures. Meanwhile, Nasdaq’s chief executive, Adena Friedman, said this year that the group would consider offering cryptocurrency exchange services in future.

Slowed
Alternative funds are also muscling in. Morgan Stanley data show there is now more than $3.5 billion in estimated assets under management across 250 dedicated crypto funds, although the pace of the creation of new funds has slowed recently.
A more formalised over-the-counter market has started to develop, with players such as Cumberland, an arm of Chicago-based DRW, and Goldman Sachs-backed Circle growing rapidly.
Much of the future of bitcoin trading will depend on the approach that regulators take, experts say. There are stirrings across the world, though – to date – little coherence. Asian financial centres such as Tokyo are now regulating crypto exchanges, while China has banned them outright. Meanwhile, the US Securities and Exchange Commission last month announced a criminal probe into potential bitcoin price manipulation.
Banks in particular have been reticent to engage with cryptocurrencies and the companies that handle them, partly due to the difficulty of conducting anti-money laundering checks on transactions.
“Bank compliance officers really, really hate cryptos ...be prepared to demonstrate the provenance of every penny from every crypto,” says Gerard.
Hileman predicts that one day there will be a “legitimate regulated retail investment market” in bitcoin, although not anytime soon. “We’re talking years,” he predicts.
Regulators
Any more widespread adoption of bitcoin would need regulators, central banks and tax regulators to allow the transfer of wealth movement from the current financial system into the new one, says Gavin Brown, senior lecturer in financial economics at Manchester Metropolitan University and director of cryptocurrency hedge fund Blockchain Capital.
Nevertheless, there are those who still hold unwavering faith in bitcoin.
Sunnie, who has been investing in bitcoin since she started working for a crypto exchange back in 2014, did not cash out in December, burnt by a previous experience in 2016 when she sold thinking the price was high.
Blockchain technology
With 50 per cent of her assets currently in 10 bitcoin – bought initially at $3,000 a piece – she believes in its potential as the first project that uses burgeoning blockchain technology.
“If bitcoin can survive under such a high rollercoaster period, I have faith in it,” she adds. “When I reach six figures I’m probably going to cash out what I have and completely retire. The price will go to the moon again – maybe higher.” – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2018

Hetbert

日本bitFlyer近日举行“网络防灾演练”



近日，日本数字货币交易所bitFlyer宣布在6月8日至6月22日举行“网络防灾演练”活动。此次活动的主题是“网络诈骗”，通过发送冒充企业及服务的电子邮件以骗取用户提供其个人信息的方式，提高用户对网络诈骗的防范意识。此次活动得到了日本警察厅的支持。

Hetbert

需求增长推动非洲数字货币业务不断增长

据cryptonews消息，目前非洲国家对数字货币交易的需求增长推动非洲数字货币交易业务不断增长。纽约时报援引ICOWatchlist的一名官员的话称，津巴布韦人和其他非洲国家的公民正在选择数字货币进行交易。同时依据“福布斯”撰稿人拉克什·夏尔马说法，在过去一年里，约15个数字货币相关业务在非洲开展。卢旺达“新时代”指出，总部位于南非的Luno Exchange目前在全球40多个国家拥有150万客户。上月南非投资管理公司Sygnia宣布计划在2018年第三季度启动一个数字货币交易所，以应对该国数字货币交易需求的增加。

firststeps

Hetbert 发表于 2018-6-11 18:26
需求增长推动非洲数字货币业务不断增长

据cryptonews消息，目前非洲国家对数字货币交易的需求增长推动非洲 ...

非洲人民的确需要比特币，比他们的垃圾政府和货币靠谱

Hetbert

报道称微商人员转战区块链，热闹背后隐藏隐患

据国际金融报消息，今年多场区块链大会密集举行，会议热度空前，参与者热情高涨。现在参会的人员构成呈现两种趋势：一是原本二级市场的玩家涌入区块链领域；二是不少微商从业人员也开始转战区块链。在其中一场区块链论坛上，记者发现真正具有技术背景的参会人员并不多，不少参会的嘉宾是满场换名片、加微信的“中国大妈”，还有部分是还没入圈的“门外汉”。在热闹背后，隐藏着不少隐患。

Hetbert

多家日本上市公司进入数字货币市场

据bitcoin消息，近日日本六家上市公司正计划推出自己的数字货币交易所，其中包括Money Forward。另外Samurai＆J Partners、Appbank Inc、I-Freek Mobile Inc三家公司也宣布了他们的计划，将推出不同产品。

Following reports of six publicly listed companies launching their own cryptocurrency exchanges in Japan, three other firms listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange have announced plans to enter the space with various crypto offerings.

Also read: Yahoo! Japan Confirms Entrance Into the Crypto Space

Publicly traded companies in Japan are increasingly seeking to enter the crypto space to offer various crypto-related services. News.Bitcoin.com recently reported that six public companies are planning to launch their own cryptocurrency exchanges including Money Forward, which operates one of Japan’s most popular personal finance apps. An additional three companies have also announced their plans to enter the space with different product offerings.

Samurai & J Partners

Samurai & J Partners (TYO:4764), established in 1996, offers investment banking, fintech, and IT services. In its core business, the firm “invests in listed companies using the method called PIPE (private investment in public equity) investment,” its website describes.



A subsidiary of the company operates a crowdfunding platform that “connects individuals wanting to manage assets and companies that need money.” The platform, called Samurai, already lists a crypto-related fund called the Virtual Currency Mining Fund. On its website, the company also indicates a new service for token offerings.

Furthermore, the firm recently announced its plans to enter into a “money lending business for virtual currency holders.”

Appbank Inc



More Japanese Public Companies Entering the Crypto SpaceAppbank Inc (TYO:6177) plans, produces and manages content distribution such as through videos and live broadcasts of social games. It operates a gaming and smartphone-related media site called Appbank.net. Launched in October 2008, the site claims to be “Japan’s largest Iphone media” service.More Japanese Public Companies Entering the Crypto Space

Last week, the company announced the launch of its Virtual Currency Distribution Content Platform called @Blast, with the grand opening event planned for this month. The firm explained:



@Blast is a web service platform that distributes virtual currencies through various content centered on games and entertainment.
Using this platform, the company plans to “promote the spread of virtual currencies while providing users a place to interact with virtual currencies through this service.”

I-Freek Mobile Inc

I-Freek Mobile Inc (TYO:3845) provides mobile content to cell phone users. The firm recently announced that it has modified its Articles of Incorporation to add “virtual currency exchange” business. The amended Articles are expected to be adopted at the company’s general meeting of shareholders on June 27.



Minkabu publication quoted the company detailing:

We add virtual currency exchange business…[to expand] the content business of the company and its subsidiaries and [to] prepare for future business development.

Hetbert

分析师：BTC价格下跌是因为没有更多的人愿意买







据分析师Joseph Young消息，华尔街日报称BTC价格下跌是因为韩国小交易所Coinrail被黑客攻击。但下跌实际上是因为人们卖出BTC而没有足够多的人愿意买，不是因为一次小小的黑客攻击。

Hetbert

加拿大和拉丁美洲的P2P比特币市场成交量创新高

据Bitcoin消息，coin.dance数据显示，最近几周智利、秘鲁和委内瑞拉以及加拿大比特币市场出现大幅增长，为Localbitcoins交易的比特币数量创下新的历史新高。在5月26日秘鲁本地市场一周内产生106 BTC交易，突破此前历史最高80 BTC；5月第一周智利通过Localbitcoin获得近2.344亿美元的智利比索（约合37万美元）BTC交易创下新高；委内瑞拉在6月2日这周P2P市场价值约为375万美元；在5月19日这周，加拿大P2P市创造了1213万加元（约合933万美元）创历史新高。

Hetbert

红杉资本传将领投比特大陆IPO预售轮

据中金投X消息，红杉资本拟领投比特大陆4亿美元IPO预售轮，比特大陆目前估值120亿美元。红杉资本和比特大陆官方暂就此事不予置评。曾有报道称，比特大陆计划今年9月在香港IPO，年底市值预计将达300-400亿美元。

Hetbert

黄红元：金融科技在交易所跨境合作中的作用正在显现



上海证券交易所理事长黄红元近日表示，全球交易所之间的跨境合作出现了一些新现象，金融科技在交易所跨境合作中的作用正在显现。纳斯达克、澳大利亚和韩国等证券交易所启动了基于区块链技术的研究和开发。上交所也紧踩金融科技发展的步伐，探索大数据、人工智能在提升监管效力方面的应用。

Hetbert

比特币开发人员Jameson Lopp：Netflix节目对比特币描述不实

据CCN消息，前BitGo首席工程师、比特币开发人员Jameson Lopp批评娱乐巨头Netflix，认为Netflix旗下节目表达了很多关于比特币的不实信息。此前，Netflix在2018年初推出了一个名为“Explained”系列节目，旨在为从Kpop到区块链技术等各种主题提供独到见解。最近的“Explained“节目内容涉及比特币和加密行业的结构，但Lopp表示，节目里说大多数比特币被用于非法交易这一说法是错误的。



Jameson Lopp, a former lead engineer at BitGo and a prominent Bitcoin developer, has criticized Netflix, the $159 billion entertainment giant, for one of its “Explained” series focused on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market.

Wrong Arguments
In collaboration with Vox, a US-based media company that runs a popular YouTube channel that delves into difficult subjects and produces informative videos, Netflix created a series called “Explained” in early 2018 to offer unique insights into a variety of topics, ranging from Kpop to blockchain technology.

One of the most recent “Explained” episodes delved into Bitcoin and the structure of the cryptocurrency industry, with an attempt to evaluate blockchain technology and the use cases of Bitcoin as a widely-recognized and utilized currency.

While the episode did come across as a well-informed explanation of Bitcoin and the basics of the currency, Lopp emphasized that Vox and Netflix failed to provide accurate analysis of the technology behind Bitcoin and the current use case of the dominant cryptocurrency.

Lopp outlined the following factual errors in the Netflix “Explained” episode on Bitcoin:

Most bitcoin is spent on illegal services.
Byzantine Generals’ Problem is about being able to transact privately.
Satoshi invented the blockchain.
All cryptocurrencies use blockchains
The Byzantine Generals’ Problem, origin of the blockchain, and the applicability of the blockchain are relatively simple concepts that need to be explained properly to newcomers and beginner users, as they are considered as the fundamentals of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

Technically, Lopp explained that Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, did not create the concept of the blockchain, which in essence is a timestamp technology that secures information through the application of cryptography.

“’Blockchain’ can be traced to 1991 when Stuart Haber and W. Scott Stornetta described the first work on a cryptographically secured chain of blocks. In 1992, they incorporated Merkle trees into the design allowing several documents to be collected into a block. Technically the paper refers to a chain of timestamps but the main point is that ‘blockchain’ is just a data structure that has nothing to do with consensus mechanisms that may be built around such a data structure,” explained Lopp.

No, Bitcoin is Not Criminal Money
Apart from these technical errors, Vox and Netflix also incorrectly concluded that Bitcoin is mostly spent on illegal services, completely dismissing the fact that Bitcoin, by nature, is transparent and not anonymous. The non-anonymous nature of Bitcoin ultimately led many dark web marketplace operators and illicit content distributors to leak their identities to the authorities in both covert operations and public investigations.

Transactions on the Bitcoin network can be traced using blockchain explorers, and anyone on the Bitcoin network can view all transactions and wallets that exist on the Bitcoin network. The transparency of Bitcoin makes the cryptocurrency a poor transaction method to be used on dark web marketplaces.

Instead, criminals utilize anonymous cryptocurrencies like Monero, Zcash, and Dash, to store, receive, and send private transactions, as the Japanese government previously noted.

“It’s a typical money laundering scheme. In a way, I’m not surprised. If you are going to do something illegal, then everyone knows to use the ‘three anonymous siblings,’” said a Japanese government official from the Financial Services Agency (FSA), referring to Monero, Zcash, and Dash.

Hetbert

冯仑：御风资本将发起成立总规模20亿人民币的未来信息技术产业投资基金 专注区块链等前沿项目
据浙江在线消息，世界未来基金会(WFF)向浙江大学教育基金会捐资2100万元人民币，设立“浙江大学计算机学院未来信息技术研究中心”，即旨在迎接“发展重新定义的变革时代”，致力开展区块链、人工智能、可信服务链等未来新兴科技的基础研究，万向区块链董事长肖风博士任未来信息技术研究中心顾问。世界未来基金会理事长、御风资本董事长冯仑在捐资签约仪式上表示，御风资本将发起成立总规模20亿人民币的未来信息技术产业投资基金，专注区块链、人工智能、可信服务链等为代表的未来信息科技前沿项目，为国家和社会的创新发展贡献力量。

Hetbert

加拿大政府发布新法规草案 规定数字货币交易和支付处理商为货币服务业务

据Cointelegraph消息，加拿大政府日前发布了关于数字货币交易和支付处理商的新法规草案。该草案规定，将数字货币交易所和支付处理商规定为货币服务业务（MSB），要求其报告超过1万加元（约合7700美元）的大额交易，并且需在交易额超过1000加元（约合770美元）时进行KYC（Know Your Customer）验证。

Canada drafts new AML/ATF regulations for cryptocurrency exchanges
Monday, June 11, 2018 5:59 AM UTC 0 comments
The government of Canada has published an official draft on amendments to strengthen the country’s Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Financing (AML/ATF) Regime to include cryptocurrencies and prepaid cards among other things.

According to Canada Gazette, the proposed amendments are aimed at mitigating the money laundering and terrorist activity financing vulnerabilities of cryptocurrencies in a way that is “consistent with the existing legal framework, while not unduly hindering innovation.”

“Persons and entities that are “dealing in virtual currency” would be financial entities or other entities deemed domestic or foreign MSBs, as the case may be,” the draft states.

Under the proposed regulations, all persons and entities dealing in cryptocurrencies would be required to implement a full compliance program and register with FINTRAC.

“A financial entity shall keep a large virtual currency transaction record in respect of every amount of C$10,000 or more in virtual currency that it receives from a person or entity in a single transaction, unless the amount is received from another financial entity or a public body or from a person who is acting on behalf of a client that is a financial entity or public body,” it states.

For virtual currency transactions of C$1,000 or more, then the entities would be required to keep records relating to the date of the transaction and the KYC details of those involved in the transaction, among other things.

According to the cost-benefit analysis included in the draft, the regulations would cost around C$61 over the next 10 years with requirements for businesses dealing in virtual currency amounting to around C$270k.

Hetbert

性工作者使用数字货币作为退休储蓄

据Coindesk消息，一名名为MelissaSweet1的性工作者在三年前已经开始接受数字货币作为工作报酬，但通常情况下，她会立即将其转化为法币，而去年她开始使用数字货币作为退休储蓄。MelissaSweet1表示，越来越多的银行认为任何性工作都是高风险的所以拒绝接受色情行业公司的直接存款，因而她将数字货币纳入考虑范围之内。



MelissaSweet1, a camgirl in Arizona, started accepting cryptocurrency as payment for her erotic webcam performances three years ago. But usually, she would promptly convert it into fiat.

Until last year that is, when she started squirreling away the digital coins in a hardware wallet. Rather than simply an expedient way to get paid, crypto became a part of her retirement plan.

Like MelissaSweet1, several other sex workers recently interviewed by CoinDesk described similar shifts in their crypto usage. While others in the blockchain industry debate whether bitcoin is primarily a transactional currency or a global store of value, sex workers are already using the technology for both.

The trend speaks to both the surge in cryptocurrency prices, which has made it more rewarding to hold on to coins rather than cash out, and an intensification of the very problem that led the sex industry to turn to blockchain technology in the first place.

Namely, it's even harder than it was just six months ago for people in this line of work to get any kind of mainstream financial services in the U.S. – not just the payment processing that's long been elusive for them.

"More banks are viewing any sex work as high risk, and an increasing number of banks are refusing to accept direct deposits from adult industry companies," said MelissaSweet1, who like other sex workers did not want to give her real name.

In such an environment, sex workers – a broad category that includes not only escorts but lawful workers such as erotic dancers, porn stars and even film production professionals – see saving money the old-fashioned way as increasingly risky because their accounts can be closed and funds frozen without warning. Some are afraid that centralized crypto services will start to do the same.

So, in addition to hodling the crypto they receive from clients, they're also moving their digital money offline from third-party services to cold storage methods under their control.



Adult performer and token enthusiast Brenna Sparks alluded to the new state of affairs in a tweet last month. Recounting a conversation with a makeup artist on set, Sparks wrote:

"She happens to invest [in crypto] as well. 'I'm trying to retire.' I shook my head in agreement. 'Same.'"

Self-sovereign savings

But since retiring on crypto means securing it for years or even decades to come, these freelancers often evangelize in closed groups about the importance of cold storage. This is the practice of keeping the private key to a wallet – which is like a long, indecipherable and hard-to-remember password – offline, either on a piece of paper or a hardware device.

"I've seen an increase," camgirl and adult film actress Ginger Banks, who has been in the industry for eight years, told CoinDesk about her peers discussing how to manage private keys. "Just recently myself, people have been encouraging me to get my stuff off of Coinbase."

As long as users control their private keys, their crypto cannot be confiscated, a risk that even legal sex workers face when they keep money in the bank.

"The reason that security is taken so seriously by the adult industry is because they are so used having their accounts discontinued or frozen without warning by traditional centralized institutions," Nathan Smale, chief operating officer at the crypto startup Intimate, told CoinDesk.

"You are dealing with women and men who have always had to take responsibility for their own safety and protection, rarely being able to rely on others to actually help them," Smale said. "Is it any wonder that they would take control of their own funds and manage them?"

Even those who continue to use regulated, third-party services are hedging their bets. For instance, Leah, a 20-year-old sex worker who specializes in a form of BDSM, told CoinDesk she worries the government will create stricter regulations for cryptocurrency transactions, which would result in the kind of discrimination and account closures sex workers have long encountered from legacy financial providers.

So Leah uses a hardware wallet in addition to exchange accounts on sites like Coinbase. The flipside of cold storage, as seasoned crypto users know, is that key management can be stressful and involved. If lose your key, or forget the PIN or the recovery passphrase for a hardware wallet, you'll never be able to access your money.

"Cryptocurrency is something still pretty new, it's decentralized so you have to hold yourself more responsible," MelissaSweet1 said.

More to come

Despite the headaches involved, the trend among sex workers of using crypto to save for retirement looks likely to grow, as an unintended consequence of recently enacted and pending legislation.

First, there was the SESTA/FOSTA legislation package that passed in the U.S. in March, which conflated consensual sex work with sex trafficking, and weakened legal protections for internet service providers (including online financial platforms) used by sex workers.

While traditional banks and payment networks like Visa have been inhospitable to sex workers for at least a decade, these new laws gave them one more reason to fear for their reputations if they come anywhere near the industry. Now there is another bill working its way through Congress, which could criminalize providing banking services for "traffickers."

"These laws do pose a real threat to me," MelissaSweet1 said.

But that's not to say these crypto users want to break the law. Indeed, while naysayers may be quick to point out that saving for retirement without a licensed service provider could lend itself to tax evasion, blogs and social networks for sex workers are full of freelancers sharing tips on how to file taxes – including taxes on bitcoin payments.

"There is a way to report income even when you're doing something that might be, in some states or locations, outside the law," Mike Stabile, communications director at the Free Speech Coalition, a nonprofit adult industry trade organization, told CoinDesk. "Those people who are working in sex work do pay taxes. They do have deductions."

To that point, MelissaSweet1 said she has been checking all her legal compliance boxes while working in the adult entertainment industry for the past five years and plans to continue doing so because she is proud of her work.

Besides, she said:

"To my knowledge, there are no retirement services that specifically cater to sex workers."



Looking ahead, some sex workers are thinking about other potential wealth-building applications for blockchain technology. For example, Ginger Banks said she hopes to someday establish her own studio using smart contracts to send royalties (which are rare in the adult entertainment industry) directly to individual cryptocurrency wallets for long-term income throughout retirement.

"It feels like I am a part of history if I hold these coins for the future," Banks said.

Hetbert

立陶宛成为欧盟首批发布ICO指南的国家

据新浪财经报道，立陶宛财政部周五发布ICO的综合指南，成为欧盟首批对发行ICO项目或出售虚拟代币出台明确准则的国家。立陶宛希望借助此举吸引ICO项目、投资者和企业家落户立陶宛。其财政部长维柳斯·沙波卡在新闻公报中说：“我们应该努力使立陶宛成为那些愿意在透明和有序的合法环境下运营ICO项目的发起者的主要总部。” 这些指导方针涵盖了ICO项目的监管，公司，间接税收，会计和反洗钱等方面。据立陶宛财政部称，2017年，立陶宛ICO项目在全球范围内募资超过4亿欧元（4.7亿美元），“占到全球市场10％的份额”。立陶宛央行最近表示，立陶宛人管理的ICO项目今年头三个月在全球筹资至少2.5亿美元。

Hetbert

区块链公司Wala为发展中国家提供大量微交易服务

据coindesk报道，区块链公司Wala现在为乌干达、津巴布韦和南非的超过5.7万个钱包账户提供每天约6300次的dala交易。绝大多数这些交易都是小于1美元的小额支付。区块链公司的实践表明数字货币更适合发展中国家人群。

WALA是通过镭把小额交易合并后在以太坊主链批处理。



In several countries throughout Africa, citizens are spending an average of 27 cents to top up their mobile airtime, and they're using a crypto token to do it.

That might sound strange to many in the crypto industry, since the vision of today's blockchains allowing the movement of millions of microtransactions across the globe has proven a challenging one to reach.

Yet, a South Africa startup, Wala, is proving that a little ingenuity and an effective embrace of a nascent technology can make cryptocurrency a better payment mechanism than any of the traditional options many citizens of African nations currently have.

"We really believe cryptocurrency is what is going to drive a financial revolution in Africa," said Tricia Martinez, the CEO of Wala, which raised $1.2 million selling ethereum-based "dala" tokens in an initial coin offering (ICO) in April.

And it seems like that is starting to play out.

Revealed exclusively to CoinDesk, Wala is now facilitating roughly 6,300 daily dala transactions for more than 57,000 wallet accounts across Uganda, Zimbabwe and South Africa. The vast majority of those transactions are micropayments under $1.

As such, the startup is displaying that, not only are blockchain micro-transactions possible, but also that the narrative that cryptocurrency is better suited for people in developing countries is right on the money.

Because before the token sale, Wala was facilitating customer transactions via its mobile app with the existing infrastructure in these African countries. To support their business models, though, local banks charge high fees – not just on transactions but for nearly every function, including customer inquiries on fraudulent account activity, Martinez said.

This was hurting Wala's customer base and the company's business model.

"Zero-fee is the solution, but banks could not support this," Martinez continued.

Cryptocurrency offered an out by allowing them to facilitate payments across a peer-to-peer network with lower fees.

And with 100,000 merchants offering goods and services through Wala's platform, the startup has created a small-scale circular economy – something crypto enthusiasts have long vied for.

"They can buy airtime, data, pay their electricity bills or their kids' school fees," Martinez said, adding:

"Not only can they do it in their country, but they can do it across 10 markets. So if you are in South Africa and your mom lives in Zimbabwe, you can buy her airtime or pay for her electricity."

Microraiden for micropayments

So how is Wala facilitating these microtransactions on the ethereum blockchain, which has been dealing with growing scaling concerns as of late?

Sure enough, according to bitinfocharts.com, this year ethereum transaction fees have ranged from between $0.17 to $4.15, which would make sending microtransactions like Wala users are facilitating too expensive.

But by using a technology called microraiden, Wala is able to get around those transaction fees.

Microraiden is a slimmed down version of raiden, a technology similar to bitcoin's lightning network, which pushes transactions off-chain in an effort to increase scale. Unlike raiden which facilitates multiple channels and payments hopping bidirectionally, though, microradian allows decentralized app developers to set up a channel that only receives payments.

As such, Wala takes in all user payments through that channel and then batches those transactions at some point to settle them onto the ethereum blockchain.

While that settlement process does incur a transaction fee, Wala is currently able to absorb that cost because of the money it raised through the token sale and its venture capital investment ($2.2 million total).

Still, even though the system functions for Wala now, the company is looking at other options should scaling become a problem.

"We're also actually exploring the opportunity to work with a few different blockchains simultaneously," Samer Saab, Wala co-founder and COO, told CoinDesk, adding:

"For us, it's too big of a risk to take to go all in on anyone blockchain."

This is a strategy other token issuers that have launched on ethereum, have taken recently based on concerns over scale.

As Saab envisions it, multiple blockchains and scaling solutions could provide a "buffer between consumers, people who are actually engaging with the blockchain via dala, and the effects that might be happening at the base layer."

Centralized for now

Until then, though, another way Wala is getting around the costs and delays of transacting on blockchains is by centralizing their operations somewhat.

As mentioned, Wala acts as the intermediary party between dala users and the ethereum blockchain.

And for now, being that custodian – one that understands user habits because the team has lived and worked throughout Africa for years – for customers is useful.

"At the rate at which our users lose phones, delete the app, share phones, do these things, it would be very difficult," Martinez said. "You can't solve these problems unless you are living amongst your customers."

Still, Martinez said the company has plans to slowly decentralize themselves out of the equation.

"Our plan for decentralization is dependent on how ethereum scales in the future," she said, adding:

"Our goal, on that path toward decentralization, is to enable users to control their own private keys in order to have more ownership and control over the entire process."

Alongside this effort, Martinez is also looking for ways to make dala more attractive than cash.

"Our biggest competition isn't the banks, it's cash," she said.

One way Wala is enticing new users is adding rewards they wouldn't get from using cash. For instance, users can earn dala by recommending the app to friends, plus later this year, the company will launch a 'microjobs platform,' which will offer dala for simple tasks like filling out research surveys or taking pictures.

"We're trying to make a continent-wide currency," Martinez said.

Partnering with the incumbents

This year, Wala plans to expand to 11 countries, including the United Kingdom, through various partnerships.

Cross-border payments from expats in countries like the U.K. are an integral part of many African economies. But such remittance services are expensive and are often bogged down by delays.

According to the World Bank, Africa is the most expensive continent in the world to send money to. And Quartz reported remittance payments to sub-Saharan Africa can cost more than 9.7 percent of the sum received. That's where the global dala network comes in.

"Consumers can receive remittances and then go purchase products in the app, or in person. So it's a fully functioning financial product a consumer can use instead of cash," Martinez said.

Even though Wala can afford to take on the costs of operation, for now, long-term plans require monetization at some level.

For now, the startup brings in revenue by buying commodities – like airtime – in bulk at a discount, then selling smaller chunks of these commodities to users at the market price.

But above and beyond that, Martinez said the company will have several new partnerships to announce this year. For instance, Wala is partnering with the British trading firm Block Commodities to provide the equivalent of $10 million in dala loans for subsistence farmers in sub-Saharan Africa.

The startup will reap a small percentage of those loan payments.

Wala plans to partner with a bank in Zimbabwe and the global microfinance bank FINCA to offer similar loan products, and possibly also savings services.

Whereas the U.S. dollar in the U.S. is a strong currency to invest, Martinez said currencies like the Ugandan shilling or the South African rand are not as stable and so could lead to problems when invested.

As such, Martinez concluded:

"Enterprises are looking for more stable, alternative solutions so they can move value across borders and start investing in these emerging economies."

Hetbert

Hetbert 发表于 2018-6-11 19:15
红杉资本传将领投比特大陆IPO预售轮

据中金投X消息，红杉资本拟领投比特大陆4亿美元IPO预售轮，比特大陆目 ...

不是分析师说比特大陆2017年利润40亿美元么，看看比特大陆今年财大气粗的这里投一亿美元，那里投一亿美元，钱多的没处花的样子，估值这么低，不至于吧，。。。

Hetbert

见底需要归零和恐慌，也需要行业洗牌，6月11日行情分析
原创： 狂人  数字货币趋势狂人  今天
狂人本着负责，专注，诚恳的态度用心写每一篇分析文章，特点鲜明，不做作，不浮夸！



本材料仅供学习参考，不构成买卖建议，据此买卖，后果自负

狂人说

昨天回到了北京，今天想说说这几天参加新加坡峰会看到的东西和一些感受，这些或许是圈外投资者希望看到的吧，我不知道写这些东西大家会不会喜欢，但确实是最真实的感触和现状。

新加坡会议一共举办了3天，主办方之类的我不说了，重点是想说下参会的过程，每天晚上主办方都安排了晚宴，一群“圈内人”坐在一个大宴会厅，里面摆满了圆桌，大概40来桌吧，然后和其他饭局一样，先认识自己桌上的，再认识别人桌上的。但这些也都不是重点，重要的是，这些人几乎都是18年后进入币圈的，当然不乏还有刚进来1个月之内的，通过聊天发现各路人马都是奔着赚钱来的，有开交易所的，做媒体的，做法律的，做培训的，做投行孵化的，做代投的，简直应有尽有，经过几番了解和聊天后，狂人发现其实他们混的是假币圈，老币圈的人大部分都比较有操守，但是这些新人，抱着急功近利和对市场的完全不了解，入场就要赚钱，大会上路演的几个项目更是惨目忍睹，空气币盛行，让人非常无语，狂人对此也是一声叹息，纵观这些新人，他们大部分没有在市场上赚到钱，今年的市场也没有太多的赚钱效应，所以只能通过各种套路，各种想象力去骗钱，做的事情完全和区块链没有什么关系，就是硬往上靠，他们眼中的币圈大佬也和狂人认为的完全不一样，突然感觉进入了另一个世界，自此一役，狂人以后再也不想去参加会议了，眼不见为净，做好自己，也算是对币圈发展做出自己的一份力吧。

面对这些新人，动辄几十亿的基金，几百万粉丝的媒体，几万日活的交易所，我不敢想象这些数据是哪来的，连行业最起码的数据都没统计清楚就拿一堆假数据来胡编乱造，他们到底是怀着怎样的心情进入这个行业的，口碑和信任是一天天建立起来的。狂人还是建议大家有需要的时候，选择一些老币圈从业者创立的公司，至少这些人割韭菜有底线，更爱惜自己多年积累的羽毛。这是对于目前行业的一些小感悟吧，行业现在非常乱，只希望大家跟对人做对事，选择自己认为值得信任的人，和他们一起共同发展。至于这些打着各种旗号忽悠的，这波熊市自然会让他们放弃，最终市场会将他们拖入泥潭，灰飞烟灭，因为他们没有信仰，也看不清币圈真正的未来。

行情分析

比特币：

没有一点点防备，比特币一天之内再跌10%，直接跌破前期强支撑7000，这是狂人之前没有想到的，下跌动能远比昨天分析的更加强烈，今天凌晨1：30-2：30这根超级阴线放了天量，巨大的空单直接砸穿了7000整数关口，自此之后便没能再次站上，说明空头砸盘非常坚决，也确立了后面下跌的趋势。



从日线图来看，昨天的暴跌已经触及4月初下跌横盘的底部平台，这个位置具备较强的支撑力度，从今天的成交量来看，已经明显弱于昨天，那么昨天给大家说的天量下跌出现下影线的方法仍然奏效，只不过是点位的判断出现了较大的误差，今天的成交量没能持续放大，那么持续的下跌将很难出现，所以从今天开始，币价将会逐步反弹至5日线附近，随着时间的推移，预计反弹不会很强，很有可能是时间换空间的反弹，那么5日线就会随之下移，所以保守一点，币价反弹到7000强压区后可能会再次下行。但是短期内空头过度纵欲，导致身体虚弱，需要多头给他补补身子，所以这两天行情以反弹为主，反弹过后将继续下行，趋势已经比较明显，所以大家反弹减仓休息为主。后市将有较大概率向6000附近靠拢，并创出新低。

行情下跌有利于熊市的缩短，所以我们也随时准备着子弹，等待大资金开始入场的信号，币价越低，才越有屯币的价值，记住一句话，牛市赚钱，熊市赚币。

Hetbert

中美日韩欧的韭菜都被割完了，新力军在何方？
原创： 币姥爷  币姥爷  2 days ago
先来看近期的2则消息：



对于比特币市场的交易量和地域分布，我们可以大概的得出一个结论：日元>USDT>美元>韩元>欧元。

日元占比最大很好理解，因为日本一直是对BTC最为开放友好的国家，比特币在日本的商家支付渠道和线下流通中占据着一定的份额。日本人购买交易BTC，除了一部分像我们这样炒币外，很大一部分是用在线下支付和实体相关联的产业活动中，甚至是比特币都对其GDP产生百分比的贡献，这也是日本政府目前严控交易所监管的原因，防范风险。

USDT呢，其实大部分渠道都流入了国人手中，自从去年9.4政策后，人民币法币充值渠道关闭后，便通过USDT这种折中的方式来流通。按理说，国人炒币应该是最疯狂的才对，日交易量排名靠前的10个交易所，有6个是中国的，排名前20的交易所，有14个是中国的，可见国人在数字货币市场所占的份额之大。为什么USDT在btc交易占比并不是最大？主要是因为我们用RMB买USDT后，并不是用来交易BTC的，绝大部分人都会去买其他币种，因为其他币种涨跌幅更大，更有赚钱效应，换句话说就是赌性很严重。

美元和韩元占比好理解，作为传统的金融帝国和美元霸权国家，而且率先推出了比特币期货，民众参与热度可以理解，而且是比较正常的。韩国因为全民炒币，而且和国人一样疯狂，但5千多万的总人口基数限定了其在数字货币市场翻不了多少大浪。

最让人奇怪的是欧元，那么大的经济体量，5亿多的总人口，比特币交易量占比不到3%，几乎可以忽略不计。这也是为什么欧洲的一些央行认为数字货币不会对经济产生危机和影响的原因所在。

中国、日本、美国、韩国、欧盟，五大经济体，共同占据了目前数字货币市场的绝大多数份额，而且从早几年就已经陆续入场了，在去年达到最盛，目前的格局是美国、日本占据主导低位，其他的都只是陪衬，各国对数字货币市场的监管其实也反应了出来。现在虽有俄罗斯、泰国等新加入币圈通过政策来引导进场，但他们并不能能力创造一批生力军来支撑市场的进一步走势。目前数字货币市场愈发严峻的现实是场内增量资金有限，投资者有限而且被收割了一次又一次。整个市场路在何方，能寄希望于美国华尔街为首的财团机构吗？昨天的文章也从2方面分析了原因，机构进场目的还是为了利润，割韭菜的资金。因此我们唯一的出路还是在自己，赚钱这件事上，你唯一能依靠和想象的，只有你的大脑。

之前的文章或多或少的说了些怎么选项目、币种，如何炒币、投资策略等方面的零零散散的知识点，并没有一套整体的方法论来指导。其实整个币圈投资遵循一套简单的求知财富方法论：

信息（数据）→ 知识  → 财富（智慧）

信息：各类币种资料、币圈消息（文章开头的2则消息）都只是最基本的信息，没有太多的价值；

知识：信息需要经过我们的思考、判断和处理，形成自己的观点和知识（上文中对各国市场的统计和分析）；

财富：通过对信息的加工处理形成的知识，需要在投资实战中运用和反复验证，进而形成自己的投资逻辑（理解各国对数字货币的政策并制定自己的投资决策），这样才能获取财富（成为不被割的投资者）。

在币圈赚钱效应越来越低的情况下，我们需要灵活运用这套方法论来完善自己的投资习惯和策略，你的投资策略才是能够在币圈市场里和各路庄家厮杀抢夺筹码的制胜法宝，其他任何人的观点或建议都只能是参考，不经过你自己的头脑消化，没有任何意义，好好想想吧。

Hetbert

除了炒币，区块链应用的真正风口在哪里？
原创： 币姥爷  币姥爷  Yesterday

去年底进入币圈的小伙伴们，想必都听说过CryptoKitties（以太坊养猫）这款游戏。《CryptoKitties》是个电子猫的养成与繁殖游戏，利用以太币作为该游戏的唯一交易货币，两只电子猫交配而生出的子孙会遗传到他们各自的256个位元基因组，如外观、个性与特徵等，总计有40亿种可能性。

自去年12月4日这款游戏上线后，活跃用户一度过万，甚至因为交易量过大（占以太坊区块链交易总量14%）导致以太坊网络瘫痪掉，其中最贵的一只加密猫，竟然价值人民币3亿元。现在情况如何呢？据bloxy.info6月8日数据显示，加密猫目前只有244名宠物主人登录并玩耍，日活跃用户不足250人。

一款游戏，从车水马龙到门庭冷落，从一众互联网公司（百度、网易、奇虎360、暴风、小米等）争相模仿，纷纷推出各自的区块链游戏，到目前的各类区块链养成游戏无人问津，只有短短几个月的时间，这就是区块链领域里的速度和激情。

这说明了什么问题？区块链应用生态的贫瘠。从09年比特币诞生开始到现在9年时间了，虽说诞生了非常多的各类币种，特别是以太坊智能合约的创新，区块链领域里应该或多或少有一些代表性的应用和产品了吧？可是并没有，很多产品都是昙花一现，而后消迹，目前区块链领域里最拿得出手的应用只有2个：发币和炒币，伴随着投机的疯狂。

年初创投圈朱啸虎说过一句话：“如果说区块链是一个真风口，那肯定会诞生日活跃用户达千万的应用”。按照这个标准来看，除了炒币的交易所外，区块链领域里目前是没有的。虽说区块链技术的应用范围很广，在金融支付、保险、版权管理、共享经济、游戏娱乐、物联网、社交通讯、数据交换等方面都有着广泛的应用场景，但目前能够落地的产品真的很少，除了底层公链性能尚未突破适合商用的原因外，更多的还是在于各类产品自身，通过高大上的宣传制造场景需求，但其实很多都是伪需求，概念炒作而已，甚至在现在的唯币价即信仰的扭曲价值观下，项目方重心工作都放到了维护币价涨跌上了，或者出DAPP发更多的币，应用怎么能做的起来。而在这种风气的影响下，市场上的区块链项目会导致一个现象，“劣币驱逐良币”，大家都不安心搞开发了，都去炒币割韭菜了，市场会越来越混乱。

为什么现在炒币如此艰难，整体市场始终没有起色，便是被现在的浮躁的币圈链圈等导致的结果，而且已经步入深水区，越来越没赚钱效应，泡沫越来越大，有人说过，99%的区块链项目都会死掉，之前我是根本不相信的，因为我对币圈和链圈，还是抱有美好期待的，但随着了解的越多越来越迷茫，愈发感觉到形势的严峻和真实的可怕，到现在我只能下调自己的炒币预期，尽量减少操作频率，之前幻想着一夜暴富，现在我只想尽力保住本金的安全。

比特币大盘在经历10天左右的窄幅横盘整理后，今天早上终于选择了方向，来了一拨大瀑布，从7600点一路下跌到7173，离五月份的低点7040只有一步之遥。经历了这么长时间的横盘整理，大家也都麻木了，但一旦瀑布来临，显然又陷入了同样的焦虑不安。

有小伙伴留言问我，今天损失了几十万，买的好多币都在跌，我快坚持不住了，这几天会不会继续下跌，我该怎么办？

说实话，我也不知道怎么办？对于真正的市场行为而言，谁也无法准确预测短期的币价涨跌，如果真有那水平，早都财富自由了，还用努力工作吗？分析师的职责主要是根据自己的知识和经验，对市场进行复盘和预测，给出潜在的投资机会或是提示市场风险，以及一些投机策略和方法建议，对于很短时限内的行情，其实是无能为力的。

因此希望小伙伴们能正视我的价值所在，在金融市场，任何的行动决策的执行，只能靠你自己，也就是盈亏自负，要关注市场潜在的风险，尊重市场，对市场有敬畏之心，无论币价是涨是跌，你都应该有自己的应对策略。追涨了然后币价涨了，你觉得很开心，但万一跌了了，你又应该怎么办？既然你能在币价2块钱的时候买一个币，2.5的时候追涨，那么当币价跌到1.5的时候，你为什么反而不敢买了？买涨不买跌吗？既然是很看好一个币，不是应该越跌越买吗，因为你手中的成本会越来越低？如果你犹豫了，甚至是做出追涨杀跌的动作，只能说明你的买币逻辑是有问题的，这个时候最应该做的不是买卖行动，而是思考和反思。赚钱其实一项高难度的费脑力的劳动，希望大家都能从思考中获取致富的方法，越来越得心应手，越来越从容应对，越来越成为心中的那个自己。

回到行情上，比特币（BTC）终于还是选择了方向，昨天说的最快昨晚最迟下周一二的变盘节点这么快就来临了，只不过不是大家希望中的向上，而是向下的大瀑布。我觉得原因有2个吧：一个是EOS主网上线的表现，并没有如大家所希望的那样大幅上涨，横盘了这么久，既然带不动上涨攻势，市场做多情绪弱化后只能往被空方打着往下走；一个是美国SEC、CFTC等要求交易所提供交易数据以确定数字货币市场是否被操纵有关，永远不要低估一个国家行政的影响力。

至于后市如何，从盘面看在7200点位有稳住的迹象，而且也放出了巨量，短期内继续下跌的危险差不多已经解除了，即使下跌，7000点位的强支撑还是有效的，因为近期的这一波反弹走势，上下幅度不到800点，无论庄家是诱多还是诱空操作，赚钱效应都很差，我觉得是EOS的行情走势和市场整体情绪打断了节奏。预计大盘短期内会在7000-7500之间震荡走势。短线持币观望吧，尽量减少交易频率。



EOS：主网启动成功了，但币价却下跌了，市场走势和大家的预期开了一个天大的玩笑。也就是我之前所说的情况：上有压力（15.5、16.5、19.5），下有支撑（13.5、13、12.5，13.5已跌破收复中），不能突破15.5，难有新行情。EOS主链已确定，今晚9点开放交易、投票功能，可以期待下超级节点的投票事件能不能引来一波行情，无论如何，下周的EOS短线走势都可以确定了，短线是走是留，到时候见分晓吧。

至于其他币种，都跟着btc大盘瀑布走势，任何概念币种在大瀑布行情面前都没有独善其身的本事，侧面反映出场内资金的不足。



（TokenClub APP概念板块、资金流向）

还是那句话，很多币种已经到达4月份以来的低点了，我觉得如果你持有某个币种现在又在低点位，可以少量建仓来降低整体持仓成本。（今天下午我在0.054USDT补了点TRX，0.189USDT附近建仓了ADA，0.054USDT附近补仓了TCT，之前0.8附近埋伏的BOT失败清了仓位。）

最后提示：任何币种，没有只涨不跌的神话，因此在币圈，始终要对市场有敬畏之心，投资需要自己有应对之策，从容面对涨跌走势。（今晚有事，留言区就不开了，有问题的小伙伴，可以到昨天的文章后留言，有时间的话，会尽量回复，见谅！）


个人观点，仅供参考！

未经授权，不得转载！

原创不易，欢迎点赞转发！

币姥爷现已加入“海外币圈”，让我们一起在那里见证数字货币时代的来临！




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欢迎大家加入“海外币圈”电报群：https://t.me/token_club

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Hetbert

Reddit上被外国人疯狂讨论的中国诈骗项目到底是哪个
原创： 0x2  区块律动BlockBeats  4天前


|作者：0x2

|欢迎添加作者微信qkldlinda与他进行交流！

昨日，一篇在 Reddit/虚拟货币的帖子引发了全球网友的热烈讨论，原作者 gverno 写了寥寥几百字来质疑来自中国的虚拟货币全新诈骗模式。

他指出，某个项目通过堆叠时下流行的技术指标来获得媒体关注，并付费进行 Youtube 大 V 推广，将少量的 Token 通过众筹卖掉，在很短的时间内就在知名交易所上币，随后在交易所交易时拉升币价，团队在过程中偷偷出货。

本文的中文翻译（点击文末阅读原文查看 Reddit 原文）

第一步：把项目的 TPS 提高到 10 万！不不不，太低了，100 万 TPS！

第二步：先大批量私募预售，只留下一小部分对公众 ICO。ICO 的比例低于 25% 是最好的，30% 其实也 ok。

第三步：花重金宣传这个项目，让投资者觉得能在 ICO 里买到这个币简直就是幸运之神眷顾。而且还要有 YouTube 视频博主做视频猛推，当然也要有不少大 V 帮忙宣传。

第四步：在最受欢迎的交易所上币，这样你投资在他们项目上的钱就可以在交易所交易掉了！

第五步（重要）：一定要保证对外公募的 Token 可以在市场交易，这样在交易所上币后可以创造一个无与伦比的市值——公募卖出去的越少越好——15% 的就 ok，5-10% 的流通量能产生最好的结果。

第六步：坐在办公室嘲笑西方投资人居然会陷入这样傻 X 的骗局。

他列举了这个空气币的多个特征，资者纷纷拿着自己投资的项目与作者列举的特征进行对比。以下是原作者给出的多个线索。

1、项目是否宣传 TPS 达到 100 万

2、公募的比例是否低于 30%

3、花钱在 youtube 上找博主推广

4、是否在知名交易所进行上币

5、流通量低于 15%

来，跟着区块律动 BlockBeats 侦探君，一起寻找这个外国人口中的空气币的蛛丝马迹！

是PChain吗？

Reddit 网友 Rabbit0123 回复：是 PChain。



PChain 在 5 月份的媒体中宣称 PChain 系统可以在普通机器上跑到 10000TPS，其公募众筹比例为 35.7%，高于作者留下的提示线索。



在 Youtube 上，我们也看到了一些关于 PChain 的推广视频，但大都是没有多少观看量的视频。而且 PChain 主要在一些小型交易所进行交易，还包括区中心化交易所，流通量为 35%。

可以看到，PChain 的各项指标都不符合空气币的描述。我们继续调查其他可疑对象！

是波场吗？



Reddit 网友 SmellyFrontBum 问：是波场（TRON）吗？

经过区块律动 BlockBeats 调查，Tron 只有一项符合描述。

波场 TRON 发行于 2017 年 9 月份，在最初宣传的时候，孙宇晨表示以太坊过于拥堵（每秒可以处理 20-30 笔订单），所以波场要技术升级，准备把 TPS 提高到 1500。最新的媒体报道中，孙宇晨表示 Tron TPS 为 10000。



但波场当初公募众筹出售的比例过高，因为波场是目前全球前 10 的数字加密货币，所以在 9 个月的时间里，在 Youtube 上出现了超过百万个关于波场的视频。波场的流通量为 65%，也超过了作者描述的低于 15%。

据此，可以将波场排除在本文讨论的空气币范围。让我们继续调查其他可疑对象！

是OCN吗？

Reddit 网友 Jimpeem 说：OCN 每一项都符合！



经过区块律动 BlockBeats 调查，OCN 只有两项符合描述。

实际上，OCN 在这些币种都没有可比性，因为 OCN 项目并非一个公链项目，所有没有 TPS 一说。

而且 OCN 也未公布过公募 Token 的比例，也没有多少大 V 为其进行推广。作为今年年初上马的项目，它早已经在火币、Upbit 等多家知名交易所进行交易，流通量为 20%。

虽然 OCN 有两个指标符合空气币的描述，但很显然因为不是公链项目，所以不是本文提到的空气币，可以直接排除。

难道要无功而返吗？继续调查网友贡献的其他可疑对象！

是 ONT 吗？

Reddit 网友 mebeast227 回复：

ONT 现在有几乎令人疯狂的市值，而做到这一切他们只用了空投+发行少量的流通币。没有任何产品，但是市值在前 25 名。搞什么东西？



经过区块律动 BlockBeats 调查，ONT 有多达四项符合描述。

区块律动 BlockBeats 看到 ONT 在媒体上提到的 TPS 数值只有 3000，这与描述的 100 万+的 TPS 相差甚远。



而且 ONT 采取的是空投模式，之前曾空投 2000 万 ONT 给 NEO 的持币者，其实可以将空投的部分理解为公募，这样算下来，ONT 公募的比例为 2%。

在 Youtube 上，我们确实看到了有不少大 V 为 ONT 站台做宣传视频，而且 ONT 也顺利地在 OKEx、币安、火币、Upbit 等多家知名交易所上币交易，流通量占总 Token 数量的 24%。

ONT 本体看起来非常符合空气币的描述，但是以内在 TPS 上依旧与 100 万相差太多，还是被排除了。

现在我们离真相越来越近了！

是夸克链吗？

sparingnickel 等多名 Reddit 网友：是 QuarkChain（夸克链）吗？



经过区块律动 BlockBeats 调查，QuarkChain 有五项符合相关描述。



在最新的媒体采访中，夸克链的创始人周期表示测试链的 TPS 已经达到了 2000，QuarkChain 的预期是 100 万 TPS。



而且在 QuarkChain 的预售白皮书里，可以清楚地看到 QKC 的预售量为 20%。



在 Youtube 上，有大量的知名数字货币博主为 QKC 制作宣传视频，甚至还有视频直接告知大众 QKC 可以增长 100 倍。这些视频密集地发布于一个月前，而一个月前 QuarkChain 被 ICODROPS 网站评为 VERY HIGH 推荐购买项目。

QuarkChain 在 6 月 5 日直接登陆币安交易所进行交易，未经过投票上币流程。

目前 QuarkChain 的流通量为 20%，超过了上述所说的 15%，但原文也说越低越好，是被网友质疑的空气币中流通量较低的币种。

综上所述几乎可以确定，Reddit 网友热议的空气币项目应该就是 QuarkChain。

外国人如何看空气币？

Reddit 网友 SpaaceMILK：

每一个在虚拟币市场的人都应该看一下这部名叫《The China Hustle（中国骗局）》的纪录片，了解下这些人是如何在一个规范的现代市场中为所欲为的。虚拟币？相比之下，对中国人来说这就是小儿科。看完之后，最少能让你眼界大开。

我说这些话的目的不是说所有中国人做的区块链项目都是假大空的，中国也出了很多让人惊艳的东西。

但是，请各位投资之前做！好！调！查！

Reddit 网友 Hik_hik 总结出了中国空气币团队的套路公式：

1、在名字后面加个 Chain，可以蹭早期项目的光辉。

2、设计一个很 low 的网站，用一些看起来很夸张的字体，然后用大写字母拼写错误的单词。

3、用一些美哭的背景图片，字小到只有 51 吋的显示器才能看清楚。

4、做空投！

最后他总结道：Dem Chinese got the formula right!（干！中国人已经搞懂了加密货币赚钱的公式！）



对于国外网友的热烈讨论的这些空气币项目，各位区块律动BlockBeats的读者有什么看法？欢迎在文章下面留言，也可以参与他们的讨论，在下方进行投票。





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大鹏
说的就是你，夸克，别装了，号称10万，宣传有时候改口百万，其实单链是几千，最后主网上线几百而已，不过那时候货已经出完，财富已自由，韭菜已经接盘
作者
大家怎么都在说夸克……

.蕉
我决定做一个air token (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
这样我就是名正言顺的空气币了欸
作者
什么时候众筹，想买空气，请问是哪里的空气，大草原的，还是雪山的？

Kevin
都是空气币

刘君
最后的为啥是单选???
作者
啊……失误……

eric-lee
首先呢，歪果仁（美国人）发明的庞氏骗局和丝绸之路，歪果仁（俄罗斯人）传销出来的比特币，我们要感谢比海天盛宴还牛逼的大趴是歪果仁哄抬起来的，我泱泱大国的失意传销分子才能有机会在天朝发扬光大，资金盘，拆分盘，传销盘都不是我们天朝原创，却能在牛鬼蛇神的努力下，拉着没有为国为民献计献策却荷包嗷嗷待哺的叫兽们，十八线研究中心的猪人们，羞羞答答蹭国家队名称的伪砖家们，把这个骗局发扬光大，登峰造极的路上高歌猛进，然后歪果仁觉得天朝骗纸们太离经叛道了，本来全世界的骗子们借着密码学包装之下的区块链的链圈技术，都竖着牌坊玩一下bitch 币圈游戏，恪守骗子的原则不会吃干抹净之后不吐骨头，但是天朝的菁英收低智商韭菜税的时候，有点忘乎所以了，骨头不吐还要食髓知味，被歪果仁骗子们提醒一下，注意点吃相，看官们，呗闹，套路之所以迷人，是因为可以套用，歪果同仁们把套路指出来，那是挡人财路，不过歪果骗纸同行扭扭捏捏的不敢直呼其名，天朝的菁英团队不会蹦出来争辩，最多就是蹭热度的几个空气币山寨币都不如的垃圾币出来吆喝吆喝，这事就这么了了，贻笑大方，韭菜继续百倍的梦想一枕黄粱，笔者如果不想解梦，最好少报道这些，之前就说过，做币圈的3.15不是什么好差事，把良心藏起来，拿着两个比特币一个首页banner 广告的广告费，一篇报道六个以太坊的润稿费，为骗纸们穿穿皇帝的新衣，该多好

区块链神吐槽
没有什么空气币，一个愿打一个愿挨。

丯
怎么没有全选，我要全选

。
了解一下印度项目，外国人都说了，印度人是明着骗啊，都追捧。这还能怪谁呢？这模式就是外国人搞过来的。

李奇波
选项没看我就知道有夸克链

红石
我们应该讨论到底有几个币真的不是空气币……
作者
这个选题有点大

RT
根据币安的上币风险提示，夸克的流通量是3.61%啊现在，每个月都会解锁一些，年底才超20%
作者
OK。我们查询的非小号数据，抱歉！

Y
哈哈哈哈哈 投票结果有毒

shopping
我大清自有国情在此！不要轻信洋人
作者
嗨嗨嗨！醒醒！大清亡了！

香水榭
好了，可以全选了，全都是空气

5⃣1⃣3⃣周勇
波多场大，带你去坐云霄飞车

Crypto

Hetbert

王巍：我们需要一个区块链特区！
2小时前 来源：中国金融博物馆  164
深圳可以成为区块链特区
本文为中国金融博物馆理事长王巍2018年6月10日在2018（第二十届）中国风险投资论坛上的演讲



以下为演讲实录：

大家早上好！中央政府当年给深圳一个经济特区的待遇，于是40年来，在无数年轻人的奋斗下，在监管部门的宽容与呵护下，我们看到深圳成为中国的一个重要的典范，经济改革开放的领袖。深圳不仅仅是中国的领先城市，也是全球的一个发达的城市。今天的区块链大潮刚开始，我们希望在这里讨论，能不能在深圳建立一个区块链的特区。



第一，区块链为什么这么火？

空前的财富效应。这个对中国人具有独特的吸引力，在过去几十年野蛮生长中，对财富的追求很狂热，对于一个曾经极度贫穷的民族而言，也是可以理解的。区块链给相当多的人带来空前的财富，而且是在非常短的时期，这获得传媒、商人和普通大众的关注，这是最主要的原因。

其次、85和90后所谓的“硅基人类”，他们在互联网上接受观念的方式和社会行为与传统一代完全不同，不仅是打破了传统的金融或者产业的界限，而是从底层各个角度来颠覆现有金融的体系。同样，新的互联网生态瓦解了整个产业的格局。在区块链我们有了矿圈、币圈、链圈和投资圈。区块链的概念用在几乎所有的行业，从产权到音乐、出版，我们今天看到的区块链概念弥漫着所有的产业，很难定属于什么产业，应该由谁监管和由谁制订规则，这是今天的困难的地方。

金融启蒙和金融监管的严重滞后。金融在中国是垄断产品，在西方，金融是经过几百年的市场演变形成的，金融是所有人达到监管底线就可以参与，是一个自由发展的市场。在其发展过程中有太多失败、泪水甚至血，因此西方投资者和消费者对金融基本常识是理解的。在中国，金融是官方的高度垄断，民间就一定会高度的阴谋化，大家不了解金融。突然开门之后，特别是互联网空间上，所有人都在做金融，不了解金融的基本底线。大众的金融愚昧是一个深厚的社会土壤。

同样管制也一样，早期的金融监管的干部很多是部队的转业军人，政治素质高，进入金融财政这些国家的保密部门，接受金融的启蒙和教育也很少，边干边学。监管与市场机构之间没有互相博弈的关系，一旦出现问题，先把你打死，不存在讨价还价的关系。这一方面扩大了监管权利，另一方面也使得监管非常的脆弱，缺乏一个和市场磨砺的关系，互相提升的过程。这也导致今天区块链监管是一方面非常压抑，另一方面是非常抵触，关系紧张，缺乏应有的互相尊重和妥协。

还有一个火的原因是全球金融市场的创新，全球各国同样面临一个新的领域，都在争夺的创业者，几十个甚至上百个主权国家都在非常亢奋的讨论区块链，特别是一些小国，希望作为立国之本，例如瑞士，这种情况特别多，越是小国没有什么可损失的。

最后，货币工具的革命改变了整个人类交换的媒介，从早期的贝壳、金属币、到信用卡，到中央银行货币，到今天的比特币，整个的支付手段和交易的工具发展的根本的革命，每一次的革命都会导致生态革命，我们正在面临全球金融革命的突破，谁将成为领袖，谁将被淘汰，这是所有人都焦虑的。从国家角度来说，谁能留住这批年轻人，留下了创新动力，谁能给他们充分的条件和这个机制，是一个国家的竞争，所以我们非常关注下一场金融革命在哪一个国家发生。









第二，区块链是不是需要监管？

这本来不是问题，但是现在出现了大的问题，相当多的年轻人在谈区块链并不需要监管，认为区块链本身有自己监管的功能。这是错误的看法。所有的公共空间和所谓的经济学的外部效应，都需要监管，公共场所的大声喧哗都是需要监管的，比特币交易直接影响到主权货币的权威，影响到现存国家货币交易之间的规则，当然要接受金融监管，这是不需要讨论的。

另外，还有一个道德和法律的底线，现在加密货币领域出现的诈骗、洗钱、走私、传销等等都需要监管。2008年开始的比特币首先就从货币的点对点支付开始创新，后来出现的加密货币交易所等，都是立志要去中央银行化，去金融中介，得到金融监管的关注是自然的。早期创新者都比较的天真，我记得在4-5年前在座的邓迪理事长给我推广比特币货币的时候，让我安排中央银行官员讨论，和他们合作。我当时告诉邓迪，这是与虎谋皮啊。今天中央银行也在做数字货币，这和你们说的区块链货币完全不是一回事。区块链在金融领域的滥用一定会危急中央银行甚至政府功能，懂的人都懂，无论你如何花言巧语来掩盖，都会涉及监管。

所谓的区块链的自我监控，社区信任等，我叫它是金融乌托邦主义，声称区块链可以自己约束自己，加强内部信用，从来没有出现过。我们当年都了解圣西门傅立叶欧文等建立的社会主义乌托邦社区，没有外力和规则，仅仅是所谓共识是无法维持的。你可以把所有的归结为算法，认为算法决定一切。就像前年一本书叫人类简史，用故事可以解释人类的历史，这只是一个学者的角度而已。人人都可以不同角度解释历史，文明除了故事，还有武力和政权解决。你可以偏执地坚持你的立场，但世界上除了算法，还有其他的立场，所有立场之间的妥协才成为今天的社会，算法不会决定一切。

大家喜欢故事，听故事会把问题简单化。许多人讲500年前复式记帐法改变了意大利的佛罗伦萨和威尼斯的信用体系，于是整个社会改变了。今天区块链的分布算法与500年前记账革命一样伟大，当然这是非常好的故事。我看不能这么简单的理解，记帐法仅仅是一种工具，会帮助股份公司形成、处理市场的复杂交易，但是比这更强大的是军事力量和政治力量。当年法国大革命的直接爆发点是攻打巴士底狱，更直接原因是法国国王把当时的财政部长奈克给开除了，因为他公布了财政报告，让公众看到国王的腐败，导致法国三个等级一起开会，然后出现大革命。这个非常的复杂的过程，也可以简单地说是法国大革命起源于财务报表。历史可以娱乐，但不完全是这样简单的。我坚定的相信区块链有巨大的前途和变革，但不能一意孤行，以为区块链算法可以改变一切。

最后，文明的基础是交易和规则，交易很重要，但是交易需要有规则，算法和区块链可以帮助形成新的规则。我们一定要关注改变规则的所有变化，这会改变文明，因此我们必须今天高度的关注区块链对规则的创新，同时也要尊重现有的规则，在平等博弈中妥协和发展。不要主攻金融，打正面战，多关注非金融领域应用，保存实力，避免过早牺牲。




第三，谁来监管区块链？

区块链算法有很多技术的机制，分布式、无法篡改、可以溯源，这都是内部机制，有自己纠正自己的功能，不可篡改，可以自我监管。区块链成长中也有监管，是竞争出现的监管，这种博弈的过程都会形成这样的条件。区块链的商业竞争，包括应用、盈利和能不能合作，又形成市场的监管。此外，还有道德监管、不作恶，求共识。还有金融的监管，用自己的钱和用别人的钱这是根本不同的两种方式。用自己的钱，也要有投资的资格监管，用别人的钱更必须有复杂而严厉的金融监管。





最后一个，区块链应该在深圳有独特的机会，深圳可以形成区块链特区。历史上看，区块链创新与当年的轮子发明、电话和汽车等发明一样，都有共同的几个规则。

所有的创新都会破坏现有规则和秩序，因此社会要文明和宽容。所有的创新都会破坏原来的规则，都会遇到抵御，所有的创新都会恶意牟利，哪一个行业和哪一个时代都有所谓的坏人，这是正常的。不仅仅是区块链，在互联网、地下钱庄都有坏人。很多好人，动机和过程都好，但时运不济，失败了，结果成了坏人。也有很多人是自私的，甚至蓄意诈骗，结果却成功了，成伟人了。历史上这种例子太多了。我觉得历史和社会对创新的宽容很重要。所有的创新都会被压制、有牺牲，一定注意跑长跑，不要一意孤行，吐血去跑，跑长跑要有接棒的准备，起跑的不一定会冲线。

伟大的创新需要视野、学习和妥协。区块链圈了很多人突然暴富，以为自己成功了，很自信偏执，以为不需要学习了。在互联网范围中，马云也是不断失败，后来才不断学习成功的。不要太相信自己的天才视野，历史是一个很长期的过程，同样伟大的创新需要社会的呵护和宽容。区块链的创新特别需要深圳特区支持。昨天深圳金融办负责人告诉我很多令人振奋的深圳现象，特别印象深刻的是，深圳人的平均年龄32岁，这么年轻有为的城市！在深圳创业的年轻人太有福气了，希望在深圳形成区块链特区，大家一起努力！谢谢大家！

Hetbert

赵东：区块链革命将产生人类历史上资产过万亿美元的个人
8小时前 来源：OneToken  660
工业革命产生了资产过百亿美元的土豪；互联网革命达到了千亿美元级别；而区块链革命将在人类历史上产生资产过万亿美元的个人。

本文为Dfund赵东6月9日在世界区块链大会·三点钟新加坡峰会上的演讲

在我看来，区块链无疑是一场革命。目前，有许多人仅仅把区块链理解为一种技术，然而，区块链远远不单纯是一种技术。如果只以当下的技术眼光，仅从技术角度去审视它，或许结论是区块链只是一个非常低效的数据库而已。但其实绝非如此，区块链是一个数据库，但同时它是一个不可篡改的数据库，深层意义上说它是一种全新的记账方式，是一种将为全球带来巨大改变的记账方式，这是它的意义所在。

为什么说记账方式的改变有这么大的意义？前几天，冯波提到了一个观点，我觉得讲得非常好，对我很有启发。大家一定知道文艺复兴及其起源地佛罗伦萨，在文艺复兴时期，佛罗伦萨的手工业者发明了一项重要技术——复式记账，这种记账法克服了古老的簿法中种种弊端，能让商人系统全面地了解业务状况的全貌，从而在竞争中胜出。因为这种巨大优势，复式记账迅速从意大利传播到整个欧洲，之后作为一种工具，在数百年的发展中成为资本主义经济重要的基础之一。在现在看来，这种记账方式的发明，无疑是一场革命。

这里大家可以仔细想想，革命是什么？变革又是什么？

变革可以是不改变现有的利益结构，不改变既得利益者，原来拿多少之后还是拿多少，只不过是换一个新的方式，让钱赚得更多，这叫变革。而革命，一定会淘汰旧有关系，必然会颠覆既得利益者。我们在看项目时，就会带着问题，这是不是在搞革命？如果不是在搞革命，那么不过是一个赚钱的生意而已，没有太大的想象空间。

正如复式记账的革命一样，区块链是一场新的记账法的革命，过往的、现在的，个别的、普遍的经济结构，都会被区块链颠覆掉。由此区块链将会引发新的“大航海时代”，当然，这不是地理意义上大航海时代，而是生产关系上的开疆扩土，由这种“新航海”激发的生产关系的重大进化，一定会带来新的生产力的进步。

生产力进步的表现是什么？我举个例子，比如说，人工智能、航空航天技术这类，在以前需要举国之力才能涉足，需要花费数千亿甚至上万亿美元才敢干。而如今，马斯克这个人居然说我拿一亿美金，我就要造火箭，最后还造成了火箭。这说明什么，说明生产力进步的效果确实是显著的。

我们回顾历史，可以看到生产力的进步——工业时代、原子时代、信息时代——都是翻天覆地的，相比之下，似乎如今我们生产力变化不大，甚至有些停滞。其实不是这样的，之所以我们觉得之前的变化是跨越式的，那是因为我们能纵观历史，几十年时间只不过是历史资料上的几页甚至一页内容，而在现实中，我们的生命时间相对历史变革过程来说太短，所以我们主观上感觉不那么明显，就以我个人来说，生活三十多年，除去儿童、少年时期，真正能感受世界的也就二十多年，这相对于一项技术从诞生到改良到完备到广泛普及需要的几十年来说，确实是不够看到全貌的。所以说，我们不能困于这种束缚，不能被自我主观限制了想象力。

我在2013年看到比特币的时候，曾这么想，如果把比特币和美元的总量相对应，按照最小单位计算，一个比特币的价格正好是100万美元。如今，在以历史的眼光充分释放想象力的基础上去展望，我坚信比特币笔会达到100万美元一个，而当比特币达到100万美元的一个之时，人类历史上会产生第一个资产过万亿美元的土豪，那就是中本聪。

这意味着什么呢？上一次工业革命产生了资产过百亿美元的土豪；互联网革命，比尔盖茨、巴菲特他们的资产达到了千亿美元级别；而这次区块链革命将会使人类历史上产生资产过万亿美元的个人。每一次技术革命都创造更巨额的财富，每一次财富的创造都推动人类加速进步，这次万亿级别富豪的诞生，能让许多从前不可能的事情成为可能。

再谈谈我对Dfund团队的定位，我们是“新大航海时代”的一艘海盗船，我们是一帮富有冒险精神的海盗。我们要干什么？我们要冒险！我们的目标是哪里？现在也不知道，但是我们都知道前方有个伟大的目标。

Facebook的CEO扎克伯格说过：面对新的机会，最大的风险是不冒险。我对此深表赞同。当然，我个人的冒险精神比较强一些，这导致我在14年、15年的时候经历了非常大的起伏。但是经历起伏之后，我的新结论是什么？我从此不冒险了？No！我要继续冒险！但是我学会了什么叫风险？在风险触发前，我的人生一直是一帆风顺的，在风险触发转化为损失后，我学会了不能忽视风险。

因此，我们的这艘海盗船仍然要冒险，且必须不停地冒险，但是冒险前一定要评估风险，更要评估每次风险中的机会，在此基础上博取更大的回报。

如今，各个区块链项目背后都有资本的参与和推动。在资本主义世界里，资本家认为自身提供资本，承担投资的风险，所以要拿取更多的利润、剥削更多的剩余价值，而工人不承担投资风险，所以只能领取合理的工资，不能得到资本的利润。但这个看似公平的游戏机制中，存在着问题，资本作为个体是存在投资风险的，但作为整体不存在，资本的风险来自其它资本的竞争，而不是来自工人。这种风险、利润错置的生产关系是有问题的，扩大到纳入消费者和投资者，其仍然是错置的。

区块链的观念是消除这种错置，让生产者、消费者、投资者、参与者混为一体，利润和风险均分。此外还能在价值分配中去掉中间的传导环节，也就是价值超导的概念。

关于价值超导，打个简单的比方，我是一个中间人，中介机构，买方找不到卖方，找不到买方，买方跟卖方通过我达成了交易，我从中赚中介费。现在现存的各种各样的生意大都可以理解为这种商业模式，但是有了区块链，这种商业模式将会受到颠覆，并不需要中间人了。

生产关系以去中心化消除错置，以去中介化消除传导消耗，这两项是重大的生产关系变革。区块链最终将一定会颠覆传统的资本模式。

颠覆资本的同时，大家不要觉得我会落伍，有一样东西永远不会落伍，那就是对知识的认知。知识是无穷尽的，我们不仅要知道、了解，还要理解和掌握，形成自我的认识，这就是认知，我们永远都要不断进步，提升自己的认知。

另外，去中心化并不是无中心，绝对的去中心化、绝对的平等是很难存在的，这涉及到政治学的知识了。去中心化实际上是要去掉具有垄断地位的大中心，然后这个世界会有各个大大小小的中心构成，然后去掉大中心之后，就达到了一个新的平衡。而价值超导会带来极大的流动性，这就是为什么我认为，生产关系的变革会带来生产力的变革。区块链的发展将是生产关系的革命，革命是会带来改变的，会带来很多认知的改变，因此我们的认知必须不断升级，不仅仅是升级，甚至我们要革命，对自己的认知进行革命。

我认为，除了物质层面以外，人的精神层面有二层，都是由信息或者代码组成的。第一层是基因的层面，我看过《自私的基因》这本书，其中有一个非常有名的论述，认为所有的生物都是基因的机器。基因最开始的时候是什么？是碱基对，每个都有四种可能性，如果给基因测序，人完全可以用信息编码存下来，所以说从基因层面，我们每个人只不过是一串代码而已；另一个层面，就是思想层，这和基因层是非常相似的，思想本身是什么？是知识、语言、文化、习惯、法律、风俗、道德等构成的，也是信息，也是代码。只是以某种形式存储和组合起来，《利维坦》的作者霍布斯说：“思维是记忆的序列”，这就是对这一精神层非常形象的解释。

所以，当有好多人说“比特币这玩意值什么钱、不就是一串代码”时，我想说，你别以为自己有多牛，你也只不过是一段代码，我们每个人都只是一段代码而已，是不是？就像我刚才说的，精神层面的“人”就是由基因层面代码和思想层面代码的结构组成的，人也可以理解为代码的集合，代码并不意味着简单和无价值。

当然，我们也要注意投资的周期性。即便再看好一个事物，即便再相信它的长期远景，也要注意策略。也许明天明年很美好，但是，今天很残酷，未来还有相当漫长的路要走。

区块链是一场伟大的革命。如今，这场革命才刚刚开始，我们在迎接它的同时，也要做好持久战的准备。

Hetbert

12张数据图告诉你，现在的数字货币市场有多初期？
1天前 来源：大数据文摘  1396
数据告诉我们目前把数字货币作为资产类别来使用的用户规模已经相当可观了
数字货币已经虽然兴起没几年，但已经经历了大起大落好几轮回。作者根据一些能够找到的公开数据，通过钱包数、活跃地址数、交易所用户数、交易量等指标来估算目前市场的大小，还将互联网早期的发展数据拿来对比。

不妨来看看这个2017年最热的风口，现在站到了发展曲线的哪一阶段了。

从1991年第一家网站上线至今，互联网对人们的生活产生了翻天覆地的影响。

数字货币市场也是如此。

人们总是在比较数字货币和互联网的发展历程，包括对数字货币的“网景时刻”的对比。现在，我想自己测试一下，看看我们到底走了到哪一步了。

在这篇文章中，我还将探讨数字货币市场的发展与互联网的早期发展之间的关系，看看我们能发现些什么规律。

分析中遇到了哪些挑战

我们无法确切知道有多少人使用数字货币以及其使用频率，原因是：

对于那些自主保管数字货币的人来说——他们可以为不同的数字货币设置不同的钱包。

对于把交易货币放在交易所的人来说——一个钱包地址并不等于交易所的一个用户。而且，为每笔交易创建一个钱包地址在交易所也是很正常的。

因此，我们只能通过很多估测来了解密码货币的用户数量。

估计数字货币用户的增长情况

我尝试用以下几种方法来近似计算数字货币用户数的增长：

比特币和以太坊钱包数量的增长

比特币和以太坊活跃地址数量的增长（即代理DAU）

使用数字货币交易法定货币和使用数字货币交易数字货币的用户数量的增长

数字货币总交易量随时间的增长



从图上可以看出，总共有约24万个比特币钱包地址。但这并不意味着有24万比特币用户，因为一个人可能有不止一个钱包地址，并且为每笔交易生成一个新的比特币地址也很常见。

我认为24万是目前全球比特币用户数量的上限了。

除了可以查看钱包的数量，我们还可以查看每天活跃地址的数量。为了让图中的曲线更光滑，我以月份为单位获得了活动地址的中位数值，并用对数标度表示：



可以看到，每天最高活跃地址数约为1.1万个——这是比特币网络中每日活跃用户（DAU）的近似值。然而，如果比特币主要被视为纯价值存储工具，那相比于任何传统的移动应用程序或网站，就可以假定比特币的每日活跃用户数会更小。

我们也可以对以太坊进行同样的分析。下面是取对数值后以太坊地址的增长数量和每日活跃地址数量：





总的来说，一共有31万个以太坊地址，且以太网络高峰时的日活跃地址高达1.1万。

其实，以太坊与比特币是有所不同的，究其根本是因为以太坊被设计成了一个智能合约平台而非纯价值存储平台，而智能合约本身有地址，所以以太坊的使用率自然会高一点。

比特币的用户和以太坊的用户身份重合也很有可能的，我认为这两种数字货币的用户之间存在高度的相关性。

另一种估计数字货币用户量增长的的方法是查看交易本身——包括法币（如美元等法定货币）对数字货币的交易和数字货币与数字货币的交易。

只有少数的加密交易所发布了他们的总用户数和用户增长统计数据。以下是我能找到的：



如果我们假设所有的交易都收费，那么就可以列出所有的加密交易所（包括法定和数字货币）的市场份额，如下图：



此外，如果我们将所有知道用户数量和交易量的交易所都计算在内，我们可以得出每个用户的交易量的估计值。通过这个数字，我们预测数字货币市场的估计总用户量是2020万。

我认为这是数字货币用户数量的下限，考虑到这包括了在所有交易所交易和购买数字货币的人数。

此外，我们还可以查看所有数字货币的总交易量，以了解2014-2018年的交易量趋势。下图中的值已经经过对数化，并且对每月的数值已经取了平均值，以便更好地理解总体趋势。



虽然所有这些测量结果都不是用户数的确切数字，但我认为数字货币在全球范围内的总用户数量应该在2000万至3000万之间。

比较数字货币用户数的增长与互联网用户数的增长

现在我们已经估计了全球数字货币市场用户的总数，我们可以看看互联网的发展史，然后估算一下现在我们在数字货币这条轨道上的处于多么初期的阶段。

下图是互联网用户量的增长情况：




如果我们只看其1990–1995年的增长情况并将2013–2018年的数字货币增长与它相比较：



可以看出，两条线的增长趋势是很相像的，也就是说我们其实很像在追随早期互联网发展的步伐。如果你认为数字货币将遵循与互联网类似的发展轨迹，那么现在看起来我们就像在1994年的互联网时代。

我们也可以类似地分析比较早期互联网中的网站数量与当今世界上的关于数字货币的项目数量，为此我计算了所有数字货币、代币和所有的去中心化应用程序DApps的总数。

下图反映了网站数量的增长轨迹：



如果我们只看其1991-1995年的数量增长，并把它与2014-2017年加密资产（包括获得融资的代币和去中心化应用程序DApps）进行比较：



可以看出，这种比较也说明我们目前处在互联网的1994年。

下面我们再进行最后一个比较，看一下2014年至2017年获得融资的互联网公司总数与1991年至1995年获得融资的互联网创业公司数量。

*融资数额按通货膨胀调整，且只计入互联网/软件公司融资。



重点来了（敲黑板）：

尽管我们可以看到数字货币、代币和DApps的用户数量大幅增大，但要记住如果和互联网的成长轨迹对比的话，我们仍处于互联网时代的早期——1994年。

然而，根据你个人对区块链和数字货币的核心用途的长期看法，这种类比要么十分恰当，要么毫无意义：

如果你将数字货币视为一种新型资产，那么数字货币与互联网的发展轨迹就未必相同——无论是在用户增长还是资产增长（相当于互联网上的网站）方面。

如果你将数字货币视为一种适用于去中心化应用程序（DApps） 的应用程序平台，即去中心化互联网，那么用户增长和DApps的增长将与互联网用户和网站数量增长相一致。

我对DApp未来的最大质疑是我们没有看到DApp的使用与开发保持同步。目前数字货币的核心用途是投机，储值，资产，支付等。

数据告诉我们目前把数字货币作为资产类别来使用的用户规模已经相当可观了，而去中心化应用程序的未来虽然有趣，现在谈却仍为时尚早。

Hetbert

FT今日大涨34%再创历史新高

FT今日在Fcoin大涨33.85%，现报0.81美元。FT自5月31日上线以来，直线上扬，从开盘的0.1元左右，现已涨至5.19元，已经翻了50余倍。据了解，FCoin交易所由火币前CTO张健发起，FT为其平台币。

Hetbert

Hetbert 发表于 2018-6-12 14:48
FT今日大涨34%再创历史新高

FT今日在Fcoin大涨33.85%，现报0.81美元。FT自5月31日上线以来，直线上扬，从 ...

撸免费FT和炒平台币的赚大了。。。(paopaobing(27))

FCoin交易所6月6日迎来首个分红日。据其网站公布的最新数据，该平台累计待分配收入已至330BTC，待分红额度也相应提升至约合1600万元。FCoin发行的平台币FT可通过交易费100%返还的方式免费取得，FT持有者可以获得平台80%的收入分配，每日都会进行分红。FCoin平台6月7日一天待分配收入累积折合212BTC，当日分红金额约合人民币1000万元。

Hetbert

中国央行数字货币研究所副所长狄刚： 区块链的可信非常重要



在上海区块链技术及应用研讨会上，中国央行数字货币研究所副所长狄刚发表题为《金融科技时代系统架构演进探讨》的演讲。狄刚表示： 区块链是技术上的去中心化，不是管理上的去中心化。物理上的分布与逻辑上的统一并不矛盾。 只用区块链解决不了问题，架构混搭才是最优。区块链是对现有架构的一种优化和补充。 技术共识不等于业务共识。 区块链的可信非常重要，如果不是可信主体搭建的区块链，未必会得到信任。