外汇讨论贴

TheWayIam

原帖由 oliverzeno 于 2006-12-11 00:44 发表
至少我下班之前，没有收到有关央行check rate的消息，不过可能楼主是高手，有更丰富的渠道呀。。

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就个人来看，周五夜里的行情是 ...

偶已经说了， 是rumor。。。只是我猜测。。。

您老兄是专业做外汇的哦！太牛了！ :si59

TheWayIam

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2006-12-11 00:42 发表


我还是等老婆生孩子然后去抱孩子吧。
赚点钱不容易，自己的血汗钱不是用来送人的。

做金融的， 挣的都不是血汗钱。。。都是准备赚3赔1的。。。

黑山老妖

原帖由 TheWayIam 于 2006-12-11 00:49 发表
做金融的， 挣的都不是血汗钱。。。都是准备赚3赔1的。。。

佩服、佩服。
good luck, you will need it.

oliverzeno

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2006-12-11 00:42 发表


我还是等老婆生孩子然后去抱孩子吧。
赚点钱不容易，自己的血汗钱不是用来送人的。

呵呵，倒不是这么说，兄弟

市场不可怕啊，央行也不可怕，自己最可怕

交易的敌人只有1个，也永远只有1个，就是咱自己呀。。

[ 本帖最后由 oliverzeno 于 2006-12-11 00:56 编辑 ]

TheWayIam

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2006-12-11 00:51 发表


佩服、佩服。
good luck, you will need it.

如果仅仅是luck， 还是你自己留着吧。。。:si67

如果你认为做外汇risk大， 那就别做。。。其实就这么简单。。。if u are not risk tolerant or dont feel comfortable with certain product, then walk away....没有必要在这里冷嘲热讽的。。。

黑山老妖

not really 冷嘲热讽, just saying that there are a lot of uncertainty associated with currency trading. It's the big fish getting all the profit because they could control the market with so much leverage. And the central bank is the monopoly holder that can intervene any time they feel like, its like inside trading...
I don't mind risks if they are applied equally to all players. And I want my risk to be fairly compensated for in terms of return.

The way I see forex is:
1. It's a market with the most intervention in the form of central banks.
2. It's a market that does not provide enough protection for average investors (if that's what you call yourself) from predatory actions of bigger market player/makers.
3. Although forex is meant to be independently controlled by market force, there is a large degree of political intervention involved. Politics involved = very bad.
4. Tools such as warrants and options are not afforded to small players to protect potential loss.

So I don't like forex at all. I don't mind shares, even with leverage, because I know its a fairer market with risk and associated fair return.

oliverzeno

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2006-12-11 01:08 发表
not really 冷嘲热讽, just saying that there are a lot of uncertainty associated with currency trading. It's the big fish getting all the profit because they could control the market with so much le ...

说实在的，这个观点站不住脚啊，兄弟

外汇远比股票干净的多。。

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CB‘s role is not profit-oriented though they still make a lot of money...

And it is too easy for a fund manager to manipulate the share market but it is absolutely impossible for anyone to do so in the FX market even the biggest player...

To me, CB is not qualified to be the top player in the FX market though they looks big; But for share, any one with more than 100m can easily play around quite well in AU's share market and we've seen a lot of such things...

One simple but straight-forward question, why there is no insder trading in FX but in Share from the prospect of regulatory?

and my friend, one more instant if you do not mind, my mentor told me that few months ago they got a big order of 1.2 Billion Aud buying and all the trading room considered it to be a real opportunity to follow and that was exactly what they did, Buying!

But guess what, the whole morning Aud were standing still and in the PM time fell 30 bpts when london walked in...everyone was wondering, why?

That evening, after a short phone chat we found out that it was one of our counterparty who got a bigger order from an importer of selling aud for 1.5+ billion and they followed as well..

And to be frank the story above happens every single day and we have all been used to more surprise cos you never know whose order will be the biggest, you never know that in the FX, but what about share?

FX is too big to manipulate and every one is small here; Share is too small especially here in AU for any player to player around...

[ 本帖最后由 oliverzeno 于 2006-12-11 03:43 编辑 ]

longyu68

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2006-12-11 01:08 发表
not really 冷嘲热讽, just saying that there are a lot of uncertainty associated with currency trading. It's the big fish getting all the profit because they could control the market with so much le ...

我对股票和外汇的看法和老妖是一致的。外汇的风险完全在我控制能力，和承受能力之外了，我玩不了。股票的风险是我可以承受的，我决定玩。

cn_yy

股票是要比外汇的市场黑暗的多。
只是股票市场相对来说是个狭义的市场，趋势比较好掌握，外汇相对来说是个广义的市场，趋势比较难把握

按照我多年在股票市场里的经历，每一个大涨的股票必定都是有庄家的，而且都是有一套操作计划的

[ 本帖最后由 cn_yy 于 2006-12-11 09:17 编辑 ]

休

股票人为操纵较外汇相对容易多了，外汇市场每天成交二万五千亿美金，一亿美元进去，没多大波动！  
我玩外汇就是玩心跳,不过要有耐性,不要经常出手.

黑山老妖

原帖由 oliverzeno 于 2006-12-11 02:57 发表
说实在的，这个观点站不住脚啊，兄弟
外汇远比股票干净的多。。
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CB‘s role is not profit-oriented though they still mak ...

Sorry dude, I can't agree with you on these points.
True, CB is not profit oriented. But they may possibly be politically motivated. Their intervention is basically preventing free market force from running its course. In a free market there is temporary information inefficiency which short term forex traders use to make money. Any intervention by central bank really kills off your chance of profitability. In the event its politically motivated intervention, the whole episode is to just disastrous for small players. The whole thing is like the market maker with inside information acting to protect its own interest. NOT GOOD.

On share market, the large funds can have some effect on share price like any market players but their own interest and ASIC will prevent them from manipulating market. When there are really bad news about shares, they will dump and cause a huge drop in share prices. But that is market force. The price might overshoot but that's market inefficiency and human nature. To do what CB does is like a company itself with infinite amount of money manipulating its own share price with no one to oversee the unethical practice. Worse still sometimes you have a few CBs gang up to manipulate market. Definitely not legal for share market. Not in Australia anyway. In china or other less developed/regulated markets maybe...

No one can manipulate forex market apart from CBs? Not true what happened to UK and HK when Soros entered market with hedge funds? selective memory loss? It's the huge leverage that really makes the whole forex market so much more interesting and unpredictable. I guess that's why there is so much profit in it too.

why there is no insder trading in FX but in Share from the prospect of regulatory?
because the inside traders are CBs themselves, they can't possibly be the market maker, the market player and the regulator at the same time. Ever heard of conflict of interest? And ASX the company has being heavily criticized for it. No, no one can or is willing to regulate forex. No one can control what the US political interest is with regard to forex rate.

[ 本帖最后由 黑山老妖 于 2006-12-11 09:39 编辑 ]

longyu68

原帖由 cn_yy 于 2006-12-11 09:01 发表
股票是要比外汇的市场黑暗的多。
只是股票市场相对来说是个狭义的市场，趋势比较好掌握，外汇相对来说是个广义的市场，趋势比较难把握

按照我多年在股票市场里的经历，每一个大涨的股票必定都是有庄家的，而且 ...

我坚持走基本面分析的，基本不看趋势。这种方法可以有效的避免被人设套。对于外汇市场来说，它超出了我目前的能力范围，我不知道怎么才能有效避免圈套。老妖说的是事实，各个国家是必定利用国家工具干预外汇市场的，因此它没有股票市场那么市场化。怎么说股票市场总还有个不参与比赛的裁判。外汇市场可没有。

休

原帖由 cn_yy 于 2006-12-9 17:00 发表


看来CMC很不可靠哦

很好奇CMC今天的图表是怎样的,谁有贴上来

cn_yy

原帖由 休 于 2006-12-11 10:15 发表

很好奇CMC今天的图表是怎样的,谁有贴上来

还是我来贴，今天没有那条柱了

黑山老妖

这个是不是属于欺诈行为？

lijun1227

应该是

cn_yy

所以我从来都不埋单

cn_yy

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2006-12-11 09:33 发表


Sorry dude, I can't agree with you on these points.
True, CB is not profit oriented. But they may possibly be politically motivated. Their intervention is basically preventing free market forc ...

原帖由 oliverzeno 于 2006-12-11 02:57 发表


说实在的，这个观点站不住脚啊，兄弟

外汇远比股票干净的多。。

－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－

CB‘s role is not profit-oriented though they still mak ...

我什么时候才能像两位这样用英文写这么大段话？佩服佩服

黑山老妖

原帖由 cn_yy 于 2006-12-11 13:46 发表
我什么时候才能像两位这样用英文写这么大段话？佩服佩服

对不起，用中文写那些我就不会了。哈哈。本人中文不太好。专业名词一点不懂。没办法。。。

cn_yy

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2006-12-11 14:01 发表

对不起，用中文写那些我就不会了。哈哈。本人中文不太好。专业名词一点不懂。没办法。。。

又被打击多一次

oliverzeno

如果黑老哥你非要坚持这样的观点，我尊重你的权利

但是就我个人的经验和角度来说

最容易也操纵最多的一个玩意儿，就是股票

实践也是如此，或许您了解的不多，有时间我给你讲讲澳洲的Fund Manager是怎么Manipulate的，而且我个人私下认为澳洲的Fund Manager很多玩的太明显。。

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另外，请大家注意1点，风险大小和市场有没有操纵是不同的

外汇风险大是因为其波动大，并不一定代表其没有股票干净

股票风险小并不一定说明其比外汇干净，虽然你遭遇的波动小。。

举个简单的例子，你要是买MAP每天波动就几毛钱最多了，其波动小

但你买MBL每天的波动就在1元左右，不同的风险不同的做法不同的头寸管理

简单的凭波动产生的风险就称一个市场比一个市场好作，有些欠科学。。

oliverzeno

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2006-12-11 12:41 发表
这个是不是属于欺诈行为？

应该不能算是欺诈行为，呵呵。。

因为没人能保证他provide的data就是100％的match the market

而且外汇是OTC市场，非交易所监管的市场，就没有1个真正的Market Rate呢！

有谁能说自己的rate就是最官方的那？

只有像股票市场这样有具体的交易所，你或许状告欺诈还有胜算，因为交易所的rate就是最权威的

如果是OTC Market的，很难。。

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当然这也要看签定合约的时候具体的产品方面的规定哈。。

[ 本帖最后由 oliverzeno 于 2006-12-11 15:32 编辑 ]

coolioo

楼上确实是内行，呵呵。以后跟你混了....

黑山老妖

原帖由 oliverzeno 于 2006-12-11 14:52 发表
或许您了解的不多，有时间我给你讲讲澳洲的Fund Manager是怎么Manipulate的，而且我个人私下认为澳洲的Fund Manager很多玩的太明显。。

就目前我知道的来看澳洲股市还是比较规范的。
我对澳洲股市的黑幕了解不够，请给我上一堂课吧。
我会看了证据再下评论。如果我的认识有问题我不会硬撑的。

oliverzeno

先简单说个例子，为什么我们的ASX在4点正式成交之后还能继续以某些冠冕堂皇的借口给那些基金经理提供便利在市场实际上已经收市了以后提供交易？

4点后的很多交易的影响不仅仅是一点点呀，这点老兄你有体会么？

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从这点来说，ASX就是为了一己的交易中介收入而放任Fund Manager操纵市场的行为之一。。

当然，这是ASX的不当之处，基金经理自己还有很多玩法，有时间我会弄点东西贴过来

黑山老妖

原帖由 oliverzeno 于 2006-12-11 15:38 发表
先简单说个例子，为什么我们的ASX在4点正式成交之后还能继续以某些冠冕堂皇的借口给那些基金经理提供便利在市场实际上已经收市了以后提供交易？

4点后的很多交易的影响不仅仅是一点点呀，这点老兄你有体会么？ ...

你说的是，off market transaction，那也是在收市价上算的吧？不太了解。好像是晚上8点之前都可以似的。
因为内幕消息所以在做吗？

欢迎爆一点内幕。

ps.好像开市前还有一点时间做off market transaction。在早上的market depth里面有时候可以看到。还有dummy bids

[ 本帖最后由 黑山老妖 于 2006-12-11 15:46 编辑 ]

oliverzeno

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2006-12-11 09:33 发表


Sorry dude, I can't agree with you on these points.
True, CB is not profit oriented. But they may possibly be politically motivated. Their intervention is basically preventing free market forc ...

另外，我想就你说的对冲基金说1两句

其实我想表达的是，央行其实在如今的金融世界影响相对过去小多了

正是这些对冲基金以及经济，金融全球化的影响下，使得以外央行限制于一国的货币政策在一个全球化的环境下减弱了很多

原先1个国家之内，就是央行的MP说了算；而现在不是了，除了央行之外，金融市场的调整也能完成同样的任务。

所以央行在外汇市场已算不上big player了，比如澳洲RBA，其外汇储备也就60－80个B，算啥呢？

10月份的Ara基金1周之内的亏损就60个亿了。。

所以即使有央行的干预，也未必能翘动市场。

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量子和老虎基金呼风唤雨，是很正常的，因为人家有搞到这么多钱的能力，同时他们也承担了很大的风险呀；

如果他们每次都能raise那么多的钱来砸的话，怎么能说是操纵呢？

老兄你设想一下，如果Soros愿意这些钱去操纵股票市场，澳洲的股市不是1下就玩完了？

当时97年的时候1方面short sell了港币，另一方面也short sell了指数期货呀。。

cn_yy

原帖由 oliverzeno 于 2006-12-11 15:50 发表


另外，我想就你说的对冲基金说1两句

其实我想表达的是，央行其实在如今的金融世界影响相对过去小多了

正是这些对冲基金以及经济，金融全球化的影响下，使得以外央行限制于一国的货币政策在一个全球化的 ...

港币和香港指数这件事，索罗斯是亏钱的，只是把香港的利率推高了 ，最高隔夜拆息，如果我没有记错最高去过30％
其实说到底索罗斯还是没有中国央行有钱

[ 本帖最后由 cn_yy 于 2006-12-11 15:57 编辑 ]

oliverzeno

原帖由 cn_yy 于 2006-12-11 15:56 发表


港币和香港指数这件事，索罗斯是亏钱的，只是把香港的利率推高了 ，最高隔夜拆息，如果我没有记错最高去过30％
其实说到底索罗斯还是没有中国央行有钱

当日中午的时候，同业隔夜拆借利率最高上到过300％＋

其实最后Soros在HK并没有亏损很多，用1句话来概括就是中国政府和Soros俩硬碰硬，最后大家打了个平手，国内的媒体对此事的宣传有所偏差，夸大了我党的胜利，呵呵。。

黑山老妖

说到头来还是因为中国是由政府在作后台，可以硬的起来。如果是英国这样的利息很多金融机构就垮了。