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找了个去年写的分析 我说过了不是每天都有trade的 可能我是真的应该把名字改一下
Good morning,
I was having a chat with a few successful businessmen over the weekend and the one question kept coming up; who the would buy a US 10 year bond on a 2.4% yield? Not me and not them was the answer, so lets look at who is and why they will lose a lot of money over the medium term and also a large opportunity cost in equities and other risk assets.
The benchmark US-10 year bond has fallen from over 4% in April to as low as 2.41% last week. As a result, global bond yields remain near historic lows. Consequently, the avalanche of capital flowing from equities and stock mutual funds into the apparent safety of government bonds has sparked widespread debate about a potential bond bubble. In the meantime,investors appear convinced that the historic low yields for both US Treasuries and global bonds, are indicating deflation, a double-dip global recession or possibly even a depression. I strongly disagree.
While my long-held view is that current long yields are reflective of a lower economic growth outlook for the highly indebted OECD countries, I also believe that bond yields are being artificially depressed by a confluence of other factors. Importantly,none of which indicate widespread deflation or a global depression.More importantly, I dont believe a large proportion of the vast sums flowing into Treasuries represent genuine or long term fixed interest holders. Therefore, I believe there is a strong possibility that bonds are in a bubble. Lets look at some of the issues that I believe are compressing long yields to unsustainable levels.
Currently the Fed is poised to initiate another quantitative easing (QE) policy to artificially depress US bond yields. This follows previous policies where the Fed purchased $US1.2trillion of mortgage-backed securities, and $US400m of US Treasuries to cap long yields. Clearly, the aim is to stimulate the economy, lower home mortgage rates, encourage bank lending and recapitalize bank balance sheets. More importantly however, the policy is aimed at enabling the US government to fund a massive $US12trillion national debt. As a result, the Feds balance sheet has grown alarmingly from $US750b before the GFC, to nearly $US2.5trillion currently.
Meanwhile, the ECB has implemented a similar QE program of $US850b to purchase PIGS sovereign debt with the aim of stabilizing the Euro. In addition, the BOJ and the BOE have both implemented similarly large QE polices Consequently, global central banks have embarked on a very risky path, amassing massive and unprecedented holdings of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Clearly this is unsustainable in the long term, and the huge pipeline of government debt issuance required to fund 100%+ sovereign debt levels will inevitably place significant upward pressure on long bond yields. At current levels I believe long bond are potentially entering a massive bubble of the same proportions as the US housing market.
In the meantime, both China and Japan continue to amass vast quantities of US treasuries (albeit at a slower rate) in order to manage their respective currencies. Incredibly, the total US government debt holdings of both countries are currently nearing $US2trillion.The massive Chinese US Treasury holdings, which are officially $US880b, but closer to $US1.2trillion given the purchases through London and HK third-party intermediaries, remain another major threat to bond yields. Currently, China requires large US dollar FX reserves given the primary reserve status of the US currency. However, giventhe Chinese government is currently initiating strategies for full Remimbi convertibility, with the aim of a long -term float and reserve currency status, the demand for US dollar-denominated assets will naturally diminish. Obviously, this strategy will be managed, but given the rising US indebtedness, clearly the risks for a long term rise in US bond yields is high. The latest filings suggest China is already reducing its US Treasury holdings into the current demand.
Yet, against the backdrop of central banks artificially depressing bond yields, and China and Japans massive self-serving US Treasury holdings, it now appears that hedge funds have made government bonds the trade du jour. According to a survey from Greenwich, hedge fund trading now accounts for 20% of the trading volume in the US treasuries. Clearly hedge funds are even less likely long term holders. However, it is very difficult for me to believe that perceived equity returns are so bad that hedge funds are trading in bonds with yields of 2.6%. When history is written, I believe it will be universally accepted that large hedge fund buying of US Treasuries marked the top of what will surely be known as Great Bond Market Bubble.
It also appears the hedge fund community has forgotten the lessons of previous bond market bubbles. It was only a little over a decade ago that Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) collapsed and nearly took a few Wall St banks with it. LTCM was using vast leverage to borrow short and invest long. That is exactly what we are seeing now, with hedge funds borrowing ultra cheap short-term money, gearing it up multiple times and buying long-term bonds to clip an interest rate arb profit. This is just such a dangerous state of affairs, but one that has precedent. That precedent didnt end well for bond carry traders or those who financed them.
In summary, I believe historic low bond yields are a clear sign of yet another potential bubble created by the easy money policies of the Fed and central banks. The Fed has already created two bubbles- a US housing market and an equity bubble-due to maintaining an ultra-low monetary policy for an extended period. Why cant the same interest rate policy create a bond market bubble? However, I believe investors are mistakenly confusing central bank policies and with doomsday economic scenarios. In the meantime, I believe a massive global rotation into bonds has resulted in a genuine pricing anomaly for equities.
As we all know many retail investors and their advisors chase performance. Up until Friday night that performance was in global bond markets.Last weekthe number of individual investors who have a bullish outlook on the US stock market for the next six months plunged to 21% from 30% . That is the lowest weekly reading from the American Association of Individual Investors since a March 2009 level of 19%. That month the S&P 500 collapsed to a 12-year low of 676 only to then rally more than 500 points over the next thirteen months!!It reminds you that you must buy the nadir of retail investor sentiment as it is always coincides with deep value in equities.
We believed the worst-case scenario is already factored into equity markets when investors expect 10- year bond yields of 2.6% will outperform equities over a decade. In this regard, it is worth noting that since 1962, the yield on the 10-year US bond has averaged about 365bp above the quarterly pace of real GDP growth. Currently it is negative. In addition, for the first time since 1962, the average yield on the Dow stocks exceeds long bonds. Also nearly 80% of the S&P 500 index possess earnings yields greater than bond yields. Currently, on just the majority of US equity yields alone, equity returns would outperform bond yields. In contrast to the consensus view, I believe bonds represent return-free risk, rather than the traditional expectation of risk-free return.
The weight of money in fixed interest has made bondsa very crowded trade.I have no doubt that the speed of the hot money exit from US treasuries, particularly at the slightest hint that the Fed is either turning off the liquidity tap, or the US economy shows the slightest sign of a recovery,will be particularly violent. In this context it was very interesting to witness the instant 20bp recovery in 10-year bond yields on Friday following the better-than-expected revision of the 2/4 GDP growth figure and Bernankes clear commitment to fight disinflation (i.e. slowing inflation rates).
This was the comment from Bernanke that saw long bond fall on Friday night and industrial commodities and equities rally hard (led by materials and energy stocks).The Federal Reserve will strongly resist deviations from price stability in the downward direction. Falling into deflation is not a significant risk for the United States at this time, but that is true in part because the public understands that the Federal Reserve will be vigilant and proactive in addressing significant further disinflation."
Translated to English that means we will print until we create inflation. People betting on deflation are going to be so wrong, and the much bigger medium term threat is the Fed again pumps too much liquidity and creates bubbles elsewhere. Note well this will be coordinated with other central banks andthere is a rumour in the WSJ that the Bank of Japan will intervene in the Yen today which would also be bullish for commodities, risk assets and inflationary pressures.
In the meantime, considering the current 10-year yield of 2.6%, the fixed income market is already discounting negative real growth in the domestic economy. As I have been consistently saying, all the financial metrics are discounting bad news, and equities represent genuine risk-adjusted value. The current pessimism reminds me so much of early 2009. In this context it is worth noting that last week US Treasury yields were below the levels at the time of the 2009 market lows. This is creating genuine long-term value opportunities for equity investors.
More importantly, China, India, Brazil and the rest of Asia are growing at high single digit levels. The global economy is currently subject to an unprecedented disparity of growth rates. Yet, global bond yields reflect a one size fits all growth scenario. As a result, global equity markets remain hostage to the Feds monetary policy and captive to the benchmark US 10-year bond. As I have consistently argued over the last 3-4 years, clearly China and India have decoupled from the US economy. Yet it is obvious that financial markets, particularly bonds, remain inextricably US-linked. Consequently, I continue to believe equity investors are being blindsided by US bond yields. Make no mistake, there is economic and earnings growth for companies outside the US. Our strategy is to be long themes and equities leveraged to strength of emerging markets particularly China, India and Asia.
I remain of the viewthe best way to play all this is long industrial commodities, long commodity equities and long the Australian Dollar. We are also long the 2ndderivative of commodities known as mining service and engineering companies.
However, it seems to me that most short-term traders are short industrial commodities, commodity equities and the Australian Dollar on a top down view about US growth and what US bond yields are telling them. Our view is that they have misinterpreted what the US Bond market is trying to tell them, just like they did in March 2009 (and 1994) ahead of a massive rally in equities as the Feds huge liquidity pump made its way into the real economy.
That is why I want to take the all powerful macro traders on. I am siding with the Fed, remembering the old adage dont fight the Fed.The biggest bet I want to have is in copper and copper equities, with these unseasonal draw-downs in LME copper inventories just so bullish. Just have a look at the chart below of Escondida head grades since first production. Copper could well prove the tightest commodity of all with the supply response hard to identify.
If you believe our view of the world above the first thing you need is a heavy copper and copper equity exposure. That can be found in a diluted form in BHP, RIO and NCM, yet a more pure form inOZL, EQN, PNA, ABY and for a real punt DML. The chart below of BHP Billiton vs. the LME copper reminds you thatanytime BHP underperforms copper, such as right now due to the uncertainty created by the Potash bid, you buy BHP shares. |
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祝我的Aussie男友情人节快乐！ (2006-2-14) hereIam 
楼主:IronPivot
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发表于 2011-5-11 14:10
发表于 2011-5-11 14:19
