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楼主:dootbear

在开罗警察清场导致149人死亡 [复制链接]

发表于 2013-8-15 15:48 |显示全部楼层
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LittleBigPlanet 发表于 2013-8-15 14:47
我觉得埃及就没有军队国家化的基础和条件,所以谈军队国家化也不可能解决埃及的现实问题,这跟空中造楼没 ...

您这个才叫做谈远了,大家不用石油,似乎不是解决埃及问题的关键吧?
此有故彼有,此生故彼生,此無故彼無,此灭故彼灭。
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发表于 2013-8-15 15:53 |显示全部楼层
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LEOZHU 发表于 2013-8-15 14:36
您没注意看我所赞同的70楼的观点。他的观点是说,如果军队国家化,就不会出现类似的悲剧。这不过是两个派 ...

所谓埃及“军队国家化”的最大障碍,我觉得很大程度上是由于长期在中东跟以色列干仗的结果,仗打多了自然军队的势力也就是膨胀起来了。

不要说埃及了,你看美国打了这些年的反恐战争,军事情报部门基本上可以说是无法无天了。

发表于 2013-8-15 15:57 |显示全部楼层
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LEOZHU 发表于 2013-8-15 14:48
您这个才叫做谈远了,大家不用石油,似乎不是解决埃及问题的关键吧?

埃及问题无解的其中一个重要因素就是大国干预,从穆沙拉夫,到穆尔希再到埃及军方赤膊上阵,都不是简单的国内政治问题。

发表于 2013-8-15 15:58 |显示全部楼层
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LittleBigPlanet 发表于 2013-8-15 14:53
所谓埃及“军队国家化”的最大障碍,我觉得很大程度上是由于长期在中东跟以色列干仗的结果,仗打多了自然 ...

我倒是比较认同您的一个观点,就是中东这些国家,有的时候未必能够自己决定自己的命运,其中涉及的因素太多,比如说宗教干政,比如说美国干涉等等。但是,我相信埃及人民还是有这个智慧处理好的,所谓万事开头难,国家转型,少有不乱的。
此有故彼有,此生故彼生,此無故彼無,此灭故彼灭。

发表于 2013-8-15 15:58 |显示全部楼层
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LittleBigPlanet 发表于 2013-8-15 14:57
埃及问题无解的其中一个重要因素就是大国干预,从穆沙拉夫,到穆尔希再到埃及军方赤膊上阵,都不是简单的 ...

穆沙拉夫?
Never argue with stupid people. they will drag you down to their level then beat you with experience

发表于 2013-8-15 16:24 |显示全部楼层
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老衲 发表于 2013-8-15 14:58
穆沙拉夫?


穆巴拉克。。。。都穆字开头,搞混了。。
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发表于 2013-8-15 16:25 |显示全部楼层
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adu 发表于 2013-8-15 15:21
人家没有你那么老,好不好

穆巴拉克比穆沙拉夫老,好不好
Never argue with stupid people. they will drag you down to their level then beat you with experience

发表于 2013-8-15 16:49 |显示全部楼层
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fayefaye 发表于 2013-8-15 07:01
没有经济基础,民主只是空谈和奢望。一声叹息

也不对。没有法制的游戏规则,民主是空谈。民主是结果,不是原因。民主的建立是在集团和每个人个人都遵守游戏规则的基础上才能实现。否则民主就是灾难。
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发表于 2013-8-15 17:31 |显示全部楼层
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阿拉伯的春天又来了?

发表于 2013-8-15 19:32 |显示全部楼层
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very bad:si133:si1

发表于 2013-8-15 19:33 |显示全部楼层
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boo hoo
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发表于 2013-8-15 20:11 |显示全部楼层
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qq888 发表于 2013-8-15 08:16
美国巳出面譴责暴力,但是没有谴责当局清埸,也没有谴责当局血腥镇压,更没有说保护民眾示威抗議的权力。
...

人权,民主,自由都是由美国人定义的,一切已美国利益为原则,正常。

发表于 2013-8-15 20:18 |显示全部楼层
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四月 发表于 2013-8-15 19:11
人权,民主,自由都是由美国人定义的,一切已美国利益为原则,正常。

说得对。

发表于 2013-8-15 20:19 |显示全部楼层
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也围观。
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发表于 2013-8-15 21:30 |显示全部楼层
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LEOZHU 发表于 2013-8-15 13:54
您似乎有些误会了。你当总统,可以指挥国家。你不当总统,你这个党派无法调动军队的。总统代表国家,总统 ...

Too naive too young
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发表于 2013-8-15 21:32 |显示全部楼层
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LEOZHU 发表于 2013-8-15 14:58
我倒是比较认同您的一个观点,就是中东这些国家,有的时候未必能够自己决定自己的命运,其中涉及的因素太 ...

邓小平只有一个
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发表于 2013-8-15 22:27 |显示全部楼层
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这里有几个人懂伊斯兰教?懂阿拉伯政治? 我两年前讲过阿拉伯的民主转变需要200-500年。有文章作证。现在的局势发展证实了我的看法。

美国在埃及没有多大leverage。最近美国国防部长,外交部在政变以前就基本上天天给埃及打电话。埃及两边都不愿让步。
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发表于 2013-8-15 22:28 |显示全部楼层
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四月 发表于 2013-8-15 19:11
人权,民主,自由都是由美国人定义的,一切已美国利益为原则,正常。

胡扯八道。民主,自由,人权都在美国建国以前就有了。

发表于 2013-8-15 22:31 |显示全部楼层
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不是说官方公布死亡三百多,实际两千多?
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发表于 2013-8-15 23:19 |显示全部楼层
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dootbear 发表于 2013-8-15 11:54
呵呵, 下一个是谁?

阿富汗呢?

一转眼阿富汗都被轮奸了13年了,最早遭殃的就是她嘛
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发表于 2013-8-16 07:55 |显示全部楼层
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Venator 发表于 2013-8-15 22:19
一转眼阿富汗都被轮奸了13年了,最早遭殃的就是她嘛

塔利班的阿富汗窝藏盖达,到处发动恐怖袭击,推翻塔利班不是正义的?否则澳洲不一样可能遭受恐怖袭击?
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发表于 2013-8-16 09:28 |显示全部楼层
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众禾土生 发表于 2013-8-15 21:31
不是说官方公布死亡三百多,实际两千多?

那是兄弟的官方数字,目前可确认的数字是600以上。
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发表于 2013-8-16 09:42 |显示全部楼层
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jlhan 发表于 2013-8-16 06:55
塔利班的阿富汗窝藏盖达,到处发动恐怖袭击,推翻塔利班不是正义的?否则澳洲不一样可能遭受恐怖袭击? ...

从来就没有正义的侵略战争啊

发表于 2013-8-16 10:03 |显示全部楼层
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韩博士总是能给大家带来娱乐。

基地和塔利班都是CIA训练出来,反恐是不是应该先推翻CIA。

发表于 2013-8-16 10:18 |显示全部楼层
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奥巴马在全球的压力下已出面讲话,谴责埃及当局的暴力所为并宣布停止与埃及军方的联合军演。
只可惜止今仍未谴责军事政变推翻民选政府。不痛不痒,姑息放纵,间接造成今日屠杀事件,丧失又一块道德高地,为世人所不齿。

发表于 2013-8-16 10:53 |显示全部楼层
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「民主自由人权」又被出了一次丑。
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发表于 2013-8-16 10:56 |显示全部楼层
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老衲 发表于 2013-8-16 09:03
韩博士总是能给大家带来娱乐。

基地和塔利班都是CIA训练出来,反恐是不是应该先推翻CIA。 ...

That is a lie

Peter Bergen: Five myths about Osama bin Laden
http://www.washingtonpost.com/op ... AFkG1rAG_story.html

发表于 2013-8-16 11:02 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 老衲 于 2013-8-16 10:19 编辑
jlhan 发表于 2013-8-16 09:56
That is a lie

Peter Bergen: Five myths about Osama bin Laden


You are liar

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda#Jihad_in_Afghanistan
Jihad in Afghanistan
Main articles: Soviet war in Afghanistan and Islamic mujahid movement


CIA-funded and ISI-trained Afghan mujahideen fighters crossing the Durand Line border to fight Soviet forces and the Soviet-backed Afghan government in 1985.
The origins of al-Qaeda as a network inspiring terrorism around the world and training operatives can be traced to the Soviet War in Afghanistan (December 1979 – February 1989).[22] The U.S. viewed the conflict in Afghanistan, with the Afghan Marxists and allied Soviet troops on one side and the native Afghan mujahideen, some of whom were radical Islamic militants, on the other, as a blatant case of Soviet expansionism and aggression. A CIA program called Operation Cyclone channeled funds through Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency to the Afghan Mujahideen who were fighting the Soviet occupation.[83]
At the same time, a growing number of Arab mujahideen joined the jihad against the Afghan Marxist regime, facilitated by international Muslim organizations, particularly the Maktab al-Khidamat,[84] which was funded by the Saudi Arabia government as well as by individual Muslims (particularly Saudi businessmen who were approached by bin Laden). Together, these sources donated some $600 million a year to jihad.[85][page needed]
In 1984, Maktab al-Khidamat (MAK), or the "Services Office", a Muslim organization founded to raise and channel funds and recruit foreign mujahideen for the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, was established in Peshawar, Pakistan, by bin Laden and Abdullah Yusuf Azzam, a Palestinian Islamic scholar and member of the Muslim Brotherhood. MAK organized guest houses in Peshawar, near the Afghan border, and gathered supplies for the construction of paramilitary training camps to prepare foreign recruits for the Afghan war front. Bin Laden became a "major financier" of the mujahideen, spending his own money and using his connections with "the Saudi royal family and the petro-billionaires of the Gulf" to influence public opinion about the war and raise additional funds.[86]


Omar Abdel-Rahman
From 1986, MAK began to set up a network of recruiting offices in the U.S., the hub of which was the Al Kifah Refugee Center at the Farouq Mosque on Brooklyn's Atlantic Avenue. Among notable figures at the Brooklyn center were "double agent" Ali Mohamed, whom FBI special agent Jack Cloonan called "bin Laden's first trainer,"[87] and "Blind Sheikh" Omar Abdel-Rahman, a leading recruiter of mujahideen for Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda evolved from MAK.
Azzam and bin Laden began to establish camps in Afghanistan in 1987.[88]
U.S. government financial support for the Afghan Islamic militants was substantial. Aid to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, an Afghan mujahideen leader and founder and leader of the Hezb-e Islami radical Islamic militant faction, alone amounted "by the most conservative estimates" to $600 million. Later, in the early 1990s, after the U.S. had withdrawn support, Hekmatyar "worked closely" with bin Laden.[89] In addition to receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in American aid, Hekmatyar was the recipient of the lion's share of Saudi aid.[90] There is evidence that the CIA supported Hekmatyar's drug trade activities by giving him immunity for his opium trafficking, which financed the operation of his militant faction.[91]
MAK and foreign mujahideen volunteers, or "Afghan Arabs," did not play a major role in the war. While over 250,000 Afghan mujahideen fought the Soviets and the communist Afghan government, it is estimated that were never more than 2,000 foreign mujahideen in the field at any one time.[92] Nonetheless, foreign mujahideen volunteers came from 43 countries, and the total number that participated in the Afghan movement between 1982 and 1992 is reported to have been 35,000.[93] Bin Laden played a central role in organizing training camps for the foreign Muslim volunteers.[94][95]
The Soviet Union finally withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989. To the surprise of many, Mohammad Najibullah's communist Afghan government hung on for three more years, before being overrun by elements of the mujahideen. With mujahideen leaders unable to agree on a structure for governance, chaos ensued, with constantly reorganizing alliances fighting for control of ill-defined territories, leaving the country devastated.
Never argue with stupid people. they will drag you down to their level then beat you with experience

发表于 2013-8-16 11:04 |显示全部楼层
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In April 1978, the communist People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) seized power in Afghanistan in the Saur Revolution. Within months, opponents of the communist government launched an uprising in eastern Afghanistan that quickly expanded into a civil war waged by guerrilla mujahideen against government forces countrywide. The Pakistani government provided these rebels with covert training centers, while the Soviet Union sent thousands of military advisers to support the PDPA government.[2] Meanwhile, increasing friction between the competing factions of the PDPA – the dominant Khalq and the more moderate Parcham – resulted in the dismissal of Parchami cabinet members and the arrest of Parchami military officers under the pretext of a Parchami coup. By mid-1979, the United States had started a covert program to assist the mujahideen.[3]
In September 1979, Khalqist President Nur Muhammad Taraki was assassinated in a coup within the PDPA orchestrated by fellow Khalq member Hafizullah Amin, who assumed the presidency. Distrusted by the Soviets, Amin was assassinated by Soviet special forces in December 1979. A Soviet-organized government, led by Parcham's Babrak Karmal but inclusive of both factions, filled the vacuum. Soviet troops were deployed to stabilize Afghanistan under Karmal in more substantial numbers, although the Soviet government did not expect to do most of the fighting in Afghanistan. As a result, however, the Soviets were now directly involved in what had been a domestic war in Afghanistan.[4]
At the time some believed the Soviets were attempting to expand their borders southward in order to gain a foothold in the Middle East. The Soviet Union had long lacked a warm water port, and their movement south seemed to position them for further expansion toward Pakistan in the East, and Iran to the West. American politicians, Republicans and Democrats alike, feared the Soviets were positioning themselves for a takeover of Middle Eastern oil. Others believed that the Soviet Union was afraid Iran's Islamic Revolution and Afghanistan's Islamization would spread to the millions of Muslims in the USSR.
After the invasion, President Jimmy Carter announced what became known as the Carter Doctrine: that the U.S. would not allow any other outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf. He terminated the Soviet Wheat Deal in January 1980, which was intended to establish trade with USSR and lessen Cold War tensions. The grain exports had been beneficial to people employed in agriculture, and the Carter embargo marked the beginning of hardship for American farmers. That same year, Carter also made two of the most unpopular decisions of his entire Presidency: prohibiting American athletes from participating in the 1980 Summer Olympics in Moscow, and reinstating registration for the draft for young males. Following the Soviet invasion, the United States supported diplomatic efforts to achieve a Soviet withdrawal. In addition, generous U.S. contributions to the refugee program in Pakistan played a major part in efforts to assist Afghan refugees.
The supplying of billions of dollars in arms to the Afghan mujahideen militants was one of the CIA's longest and most expensive covert operations.[5] The CIA provided assistance to the fundamentalist insurgents through the Pakistani secret services, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), in a program called Operation Cyclone. At least 3 billion in U.S. dollars were funneled into the country to train and equip troops with weapons. Together with similar programs by Saudi Arabia, Britain's MI6 and SAS, Egypt, Iran, and the People's Republic of China,[6] the arms included Stinger missiles, shoulder-fired, antiaircraft weapons that they used against Soviet helicopters. Pakistan's secret service, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was used as an intermediary for most of these activities to disguise the sources of support for the resistance.
No Americans trained or had direct contact with the mujahideen.[7] The skittish CIA had fewer than 10 operatives in the region because it "feared it would be blamed, like in Guatemala."[8] Civilian personnel from the U.S. Department of State and the CIA frequently visited the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area during this time.

With U.S. and other funding, the ISI armed and trained over 100,000 insurgents. On July 20, 1987, the withdrawal of Soviet troops from the country was announced pursuant to the negotiations that led to the Geneva Accords of 1988,[9] with the last Soviets leaving on February 15, 1989.
The early foundations of al-Qaida were allegedly built in part on relationships and weaponry that came from the billions of dollars in U.S. support for the Afghan mujahadin during the war to expel Soviet forces from that country.[10] However, scholars such as Jason Burke, Steve Coll, Peter Bergen, Christopher Andrew, and Vasily Mitrokhin have argued that Bin Laden was "outside of CIA eyesight" and that there is "no support" in any "reliable source" for "the claim that the CIA funded bin Laden or any of the other Arab volunteers who came to support the mujahideen."[11][12][13][14]
Michael Johns, the former Heritage Foundation foreign policy analyst and White House speechwriter to President George H. W. Bush, stated that "the Reagan-led effort to support freedom fighters resisting Soviet oppression led successfully to the first major military defeat of the Soviet Union... Sending the Red Army packing from Afghanistan proved one of the single most important contributing factors in one of history's most profoundly positive and important developments."[15]
Never argue with stupid people. they will drag you down to their level then beat you with experience
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发表于 2013-8-16 11:05 |显示全部楼层
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qq888 发表于 2013-8-16 09:18
奥巴马在全球的压力下已出面讲话,谴责埃及当局的暴力所为并宣布停止与埃及军方的联合军演。
只可惜止今仍 ...

根本就是有心的,先捣鼓军队夺权,然后又翻脸谴责军队,巴不得你内战。

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