反对党关于住房危机的对策

astina

原帖由 hueofwind 于 2007-7-4 18:08 发表

我就有认识的朋友为了退税，宁愿背负很高的贷款，买两套房子。他跟我说如果没有退税政策，他肯定会把其中一套卖掉的。

negative gearing确实帮助了现金流,但是终极目的还是挣钱不是贴钱,所以他还是赌房子涨,才背负这2个投资房的

彼岸

原帖由 eugene 于 2007-7-4 14:52 发表
1) The best brains are supposed to be get rich. They'll not willing to tell how to make average people able to buy their houses. (I'm sure they know the anwser. But if they tell you, they'll be the ...

The young generation can be best brains.

The skilled migrates also can be best brains.

However, they are both not as richer as G-x and G-y, generally speaking.

sweetpotato

说来说去就是无产阶级和资产阶级的斗争.现在明显是资本家占上风.

彼岸

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-7-4 15:46 发表
common sense is the most powerful thinking.

One market advocate figured out some problem for Australia. According to common sense from the figures
he demonstrated  , his findings would result in the collapses of Australian property market. However, I don't    think the market would be broken down becuause the common sense that houses will become more valuable.

"The total gross value of housing in this country increased from $1,000 billion in the mid 1990s to $3,150 billion today. This total amount of housing debt over that time increased from $250 billion to $850 billion today.

The value of all housing increased by $2,150 billion while the value of the debt only increased by $600 billion. Net worth (assets - liabilities) increased from $750 billion to $2,300. How did this happen? Did we put $1,550 or so of our savings into housing in just a decade? No way Nelly! We've on balance taken more OUT of our mortgages than we've put in! So how?

Let me tell you. The value of the houses depends on the price of houses currently turning over. The actual turnover is very small, normally around 5% of all houses being bought and sold each year, so it actually takes up to 20 years for a change in prices to be fully reflected in the debt level. That is exactly what has happened recently - we've been continuing to buy houses post-bubble at inflated prices for ~5 years. Consequently our debt load is rising. Over the coming years, new buyers will have to continue to take on debt to cover that $1,550 shortfall between what the current owners imagine their houses are worth, and what people have so far paid for them.

If you're lost I can point you to other places where I've explained the concept better.

Basically the end result is this - for house prices to remain where they are, future buyers need to pony up over one and a half trillion dollars in debt over the next 15 years. The $1,550 billion represents the net present value of the debt burden on future households. I'm happy to demonstrate that this future burden is impossibly high and will cripple our economy (making Japan 1990 to 2006 look like disney world) if house prices do not fall, but that aside...

You propose that the unfairly balanced taxation treatment of housing should remain so that those who bought into the bubble-hype of the last few years should have the best chance of not ending up in negative equity. Particularly the 2.5 million who recently bought in at bubble prices. But at what cost?

At the cost of 6 million future buyers overpaying, and being forced to take on twice as high a debt burden as is currently held by all existing homeowners! I on the other hand maintain that these 15 years times 400,000 average annual homebuyers should be able to get into reasonably priced homes and not be punished for wanting a place to live rather than an investment.

Remember on a national scale, there is no net wealth created by a house price boom or bubble, even one encouraged by an unfair taxation system. It's just a transfer of wealth from future owners to current owners. Either that or is temporary and collapses.

You know - Japan Style. Or Australia circa 1890s..."

http://blogs.domain.com.au/2007/ ... egative_gear_1.html

philgu

原帖由 goldensun 于 2007-7-4 14:06 发表


我也瞎想
买不起自住房,应该是买不起30-50万左右的吧

供不应求的应该是60万以下的吧
也就是说,对Sydney来说,只有很小的一块会受到影响
一群本来就买不起房的,不可能突然使得80万的房涨到90万的,因为他 ...

If you follow the current market, it is exactly the opposite. The good location ones are selling at huge premium. Give you two examples I followed in the last two weeks, two small houses/cottage in lower north shore. Both with small land size of 300sqm and indicative price of $875k. The one in Naremburn was sold for $1.13 and the other in Crows Nest sold for $1.31m. In upper north shore last week, a lot of houses are selling at top of the price range ($100k rise for $800k to $900k is normal)

applenet

静观其变,我认为该买房的还会买,买不起的不会为一政策就能买的起了.

彼岸

Ministers urge action on 'housing crisis'
By Mark Tobin

Posted 6 hours 52 minutes ago


For many Australians, the dream of owning a house remains out of reach (File photo). (Getty Images: Ian Waldie)
State and territory housing ministers meeting in Darwin today say that a generation of Australians will be locked out of the housing market forever unless the Federal Government does more to ease what they have called a housing crisis.

There was a collective sigh of relief among homeowners this morning when the Reserve Bank announced it would keep official interest rates steady at 6.25 per cent.

But for many Australians, the dream of owning a house remains out of reach.

The housing ministers meeting in Darwin are set to unveil a plan designed to boost the number of homeowners and make it more affordable to rent.

The meeting comes as Treasury documents released under Freedom of Information laws to Channel Seven reveal that recent interest rate rises have stretched many households to the limit.

The documents also warn the Federal Government that putting pressure on the states to release more land may not be the best way to ease the housing crisis.

Housing affordability is shaping as a major federal election issue, with Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd promising to host a summit later this month to discuss how to help first-home buyers.

Opposition treasury spokesman Wayne Swan says the Treasury documents show that land release policies have less to do with housing affordability than the Federal Government suggests.

"This blows away their excuse that they say the problem is solved by land release," he said.

"These documents make it very clear that wide-scale land release will not be a solution.

"In fact, they point to the fact that large-scale land release in the outer suburbs would be a knife to the throat of those households who are already exposed and under considerable housing stress."


Howard's view

Prime Minister John Howard accepts that housing affordability is a problem for young people.

He says he has kept interest rates low and that has helped keep down the cost of housing.

Despite the Treasury's advice, Mr Howard believes the states and territories could ease the crisis by releasing more land.

"It would take time for that benefit to flow through but certainly, as in all of the things that you study economically, if the price of something goes up, it's usually because there's too much demand and too little supply," he said.

"It's an ordinary economic principle. If there were more land available, the cost of buying that land would moderate - it's unlikely to fall but it might moderate - and future increases would be less."

But Mr Swan says the difficulties homeowners are facing paying the bills has more to do with recent interest rate rises than Mr Howard will admit.

"It's about time Mr Howard stopped the blame game, all the finger-pointing, and acknowledged that four interest rate rises since the last election have put Australian households in the position of paying the highest percentage of their disposable income in mortgage interest repayments in our history," he said.

"He ought to be honest about that rather than finger-pointing and providing all manner of excuses for the fact that we have a housing affordability crisis."


Proximity

David Imber from the Australians for Affordable Housing lobby group says more land releases on the urban fringe will fail to solve the problem.

"Most Australians want to live close to jobs and services and not have to commute huge distances to be with their families or friends or attend their workplaces," he said.

"Land release is an argument that industry uses because they simply want a lower cost and they never promise to pass those reduced costs on to consumers.

"It's a bit like a baker arguing for cheaper flour but not promising to reduce the cost of a loaf of bread."

The state and territory housing ministers say the only way forward is with a national strategy.

They are calling on the Federal Government to adopt their six-point plan, which they say will ease the crisis.

彼岸

ZT

Secret Treasury Documents Scuttle Howard's Housing Blame Game

Wayne Swan

Media Statement - 4th July 2007
Secret Treasury documents released overnight have scuttled John Howard’s claims that wide-scale land release by State Governments alone will solve the housing affordability crisis.

Treasury documents obtained by the Seven network under Freedom of Information state clearly that the impact of land release on housing affordability has been overstated:

While better land release and land use policies by the States and Territories are likely to improve affordability to some extent, the various reports probably overstate this effect. – p31

Further, the Treasury documents warn that John Howard’s calls for wide-scale release could lower property values down for existing homeowners, with potentially damaging consequences.

It should be noted that policies to increase affordability for first home buyers by increasing land releases may lead to lower property prices. This may impact on existing home owners, especially those with high household debt levels - p. 114

Clearly land release and planning policies have a role in housing affordability, but John Howard’s calls for wide-scale land release could inflict serious financial pain if this lowers property values and forces existing home-owners into negative equity.

The housing affordability crisis simply will not be solved by more tired and facile finger-pointing from John Howard.

The housing affordability crisis needs federal leadership and a Prime Minister who acknowledges that eight interest rate rises despite his promise to keep rates at record lows are central to the crisis.

As the Treasury documents note, these eight rate rises under John Howard have stretched heavily indebted households to the limit, with more interest rate pain in the pipeline.

The Treasury documents have bluntly exposed just how arrogant and out of touch John Howard has become when he claims that “Australian working families have never been better off”.

Australia needs fresh ideas – and above all an end to John Howard’s blame-game – so we can start tackling the housing affordability crisis head-on.

[ 本帖最后由 彼岸 于 2007-7-4 20:57 编辑 ]

黑山老妖

该买的还是要买，买不起的还是买不起。

吃喝拉撒睡

老妖：

我们是在一个新的高asset cost世纪的开端，还是在一个cycle中接近破灭时的繁荣？还是都是？

黑山老妖

原帖由 吃喝拉撒睡 于 2007-7-4 21:10 发表
老妖：

我们是在一个新的高asset cost世纪的开端，还是在一个cycle中接近破灭时的繁荣？还是都是？

天堂地狱一念之间啊。。。

吃喝拉撒睡

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-7-4 21:13 发表


天堂地狱一念之间啊。。。

回头看看真挺寒的。不动则已，一动惊人。

Puma

想等房价降，估计先等中国的价格下来再说吧。澳洲的房价比亚洲很多国家相比不算贵。既然象我这样的穷人都拥有房子。有什么理由会降呢？