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工党当选 - 澳洲政治地貌面临大地震 [复制链接]

marklan001

皮靴族

发表于 2010-9-8 15:49 |显示全部楼层

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原帖由 ys98 于 2010-9-8 14:44 发表

Herald Sun说已经有赌盘了，CentreBet赌下次大选明年底以前，赔率好像是1.67。

我看是明年六月前。

Y叔

版主

发表于 2010-9-8 15:52 |显示全部楼层

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原帖由 marklan001 于 2010-9-8 14:49 发表

我看是明年六月前。

所见略同

jlhan

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发表于 2010-9-8 16:14 |显示全部楼层

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Nationals have a long history. The demise of Nationals is fanciful. In fact, they have gained in the senator in this election. This Labor government is as left as AU politics allow. Cannot imagine independents will gain more or Labor will represent bush. In fact, there is report that the two independents who side with labor may face challenges in the next election. See the following article.

Kingmakers to face the fury
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/ ... 9niix-1225915565052

[ 本帖最后由 jlhan 于 2010-9-8 15:21 编辑 ]

jlhan

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发表于 2010-9-8 17:02 |显示全部楼层

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AU tradition (and many other Western countries as well) divides peoples interests into far left, left, center left, center right, right, far right. After long political processes, AU political forces become mainly center left (Labor) and center right (Liberal-National). Sometimes an election leans center right and sometime leans center left. Greens are far left. It almost certain that Greens will not play important role in politics. Countryside is usually center right because the nature of their interests; it is inconceivable if people in the countryside will align with Labor long term since they do not match.

This Labor government is unusual in that it is supported by a rainbow alliance from far left to center right. It may work since in my viewpoint, the policy is still largely center-left. But it may run into trouble for a number of reasons.

One assumption in the original post is that AU politics are moving to the left, which is hardly the case if you read most authoritative news papers.

micfox001

铜靴族

发表于 2010-9-8 18:25 |显示全部楼层

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I guess the "far left, left, center left, center right, right, far right" is not the patent of Australia politics. The current minority government mixed most numbers of interest types than any other in history. "A rainbow alliance" is a good description for it.. However, rainbow does not last long, neither will such alliance..

I am Micfox