|
|
此文章由 ysdxrz 原创或转贴，不代表本站立场和观点，版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 ysdxrz 所有！转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明，并保持内容完整
本帖最后由 ysdxrz 于 2017-3-31 18:39 编辑
Hello all,
我的一周动态：
此前做空银行略显有些担心，因为银行继续提高利率，其收入会增加,已关闭做空仓位。
做空WPL
做空QIN, dodgy CEO, dodgy forecast. (但是有相反观点，认为其是较大规模的企业，其主要产品sandlewood oil 等产片前景可观，ceo辞职，公司情况透明)
做多QBE， still buying dips，如果继续低于$12, 停止补仓。
Silver：good move for silver
关于股票：
大麻热: 下周市场上第一个关于大麻的ETF 开始交易。有兴趣可以查看以下链接。
http://www.marketwatch.com/story ... ext-week-2017-03-28
现在市场上的所有大麻股一览：
NSL:后半周有涨幅，很大原因取决于steel boom，接下来几个月steel将会出现供应缺口。预计2017steel 需求和价格将增长。
Steel Market Update Newsletter
Late last week the MSCI released their service center shipment and inventories data. Steel Market Update (SMU) provides detailed articles to both our Executive and Premium members about the MSCI data. One of the special articles we do for Premium only customers is our Service Center Flat Rolled Inventories Apparent Excess/Deficit model.
This is a long-winded way of saying we put the data into our model and then pump out an opinion as to whether the domestic service centers have too much (Excess) or not enough (Deficit) sheet stock on their floors. Our model now has service center inventories in Apparent Deficit. This is critical to understand as deficits mean the distributors will need to buy more steel soon. Apparent Deficits are good for steel mills trying to raise steel prices.
Our forecast for the month of January was for shipments of flat rolled to total 2,190,000 tons. The actual tonnage shipped exceeded our forecast by 83,000 tons. U.S. service centers shipped 2,273,000 tons of carbon flat rolled during the month of January 2017.
We also forecast final inventories of sheet stock would be 4,570,000 tons which would result in an Apparent Excess in distributor inventories of just 25,000 tons. The actual numbers had inventories at the end of January hitting 4,625,000 tons and instead of an Apparent Excess the distributors are now in Deficit with the Apparent Deficit based on our proprietary model being -67,000 tons. At the end of December, 2016 flat rolled inventories at the service centers had an Apparent Excess of +116,000 tons.
February & Beyond Forecast
Steel Market Update is changing the way we forecast as our desire is not to be able to predict the shipment rate or total inventory but rather to help our Premium members better understand what the end of the month data means and if there are any changes to the trends.
Going forward we are going to use the changes per month over month compared to the 4 year-moving-average in both shipments and receipts. The new forecast table will look like this:
Can the inventory deficits really hit -1,200 tons? We have seen excesses in the past (usually too much inventory) and our opinion is there will be an adjustment to move inventories closer to a balanced situation. In order to do that there will need to be an expansion of domestic and/or foreign deliveries over the next few months.
周末愉快！
|
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？注册
x
评分
-
查看全部评分
|
记录曾经的北欧印象－冬日的温暖片断 (2007-5-24) 蝶舞 
楼主:ysdxrz
发表于 2017-3-27 08:03
