养老中心EHE融资减债最后一跌？

yourock

BIH 发表于 2016-9-5 10:54
政府出收費指引，說health care有些費用不能收

难怪。看来这股票悬阿。奔SGH而去了？

BIH

yourock 发表于 2016-9-5 11:28
难怪。看来这股票悬阿。奔SGH而去了？

難說，要研究下究竟影響有多大。每個公司情況都不同。也許超賣了

wanghui1015

bondzh 发表于 2016-9-5 11:00
能分析一下reg吗？谢谢

REG有关注的，Balance sheet健康，现金流强，债务不多，但盈利能力是否能兑现，是个很大的问号。

政府不同意额外的每天每人$15的资本性质收费，这对盈利的影响比我预想的要大，每年每床要少收$5000，每年损失至少30m，收入的6%就这么没有了，加上政府补助减少，Margin进一步会压缩，REG每年花一亿五左右去买和建新设施，这点比其他两家要好很多，但是盈利增长未来两年基本就是零，很可能负增长，加上整个板块不被看好，PE给15都不保险。

排除收购等手续费，正常年盈利$56.8m，EPS0.19，未来几年除非减少资本投入，降低利息支出和折旧，否则EPS很难大幅增加兑现承诺，给PE15的话$2.85，PE20的话$3.8，就看你对这个板块未来怎么看了。

dragonballz

wanghui1015 发表于 2016-9-5 12:23
REG有关注的，Balance sheet健康，现金流强，债务不多，但盈利能力是否能兑现，是个很大的问号。

政府不 ...

Aged care is slight different from hospital. Government has lots of public hospitals but negligible public aged care facility. Comparably it is the GP clinics face similar pressure. So PRY would give a good example for how funding cut affects its share price heavily in short term.

When government cuts funding and cost in this growing area, aged care facilities will be forced to either take the loss or increase the fees. Most of them, I would say, will choose the latter to survive. Since only 3 big groups of aged care over there, they obviously could copy the model of 4 big banks. In the long run, old people/their families and almost every Australian will suffer not the aged care facilities.

At current price dropping, I think again and choose to stay but not buy any more to observe what next happens (I have not many choices though )

wanghui1015

dragonballz 发表于 2016-9-5 12:41
Aged care is slight different from hospital. Government has lots of public hospitals but negligibl ...

I think we didn't do enough research on the whole sector before buying in.

So far as I know, there are a lot of non-profit facilities and family run low cost facilities out there. Three listed aged-care are just a fraction of the whole industry. They can't be compared to banking in any level.

It is sad and shocked to see the share price moving in this way. I didn't see this coming at all.

dragonballz

wanghui1015 发表于 2016-9-5 12:51
I think we didn't do enough research on the whole sector before buying in.

So far as I know, ther ...

me neither

so much shorters there.

Weird thing is: merryl lynch becomes a substantial holder under Regal fund management on 2/9/16 and rated EHE down today.

I will restrain from any further buying but not selling anything to observe what will happen next. current average price still 3.4 though

Joh0

wanghui1015 发表于 2016-9-5 10:42
脊背发凉啊，周五执行纪律止损真是走了狗屎运了。

幸运幸运，纪律一定要遵守。

Joh0

当时就有种SGH当年的感觉，所以当时决定止损，看来没错。

wanghui1015

Joh0 发表于 2016-9-5 12:56
幸运幸运，纪律一定要遵守。

I shouldn't buy in at the first place based on my first post. Not a good discipline example.

178078020

yourock

dragonballz 发表于 2016-9-5 12:55
me neither

so much shorters there.

$3以下你又进了？

dragonballz

yourock 发表于 2016-9-5 13:31
$3以下你又进了？

actually $2.40 to make my average price $3.4

Joh0

dragonballz 发表于 2016-9-5 13:32
actually $2.40 to make my average price $3.4

这个风险比较大了，虽然不能完全和Sgh 比，但是最近只有反弹，反转的可能性很小，希望你保本或有盈利就先出来看看。。。

bondzh

Joh0 发表于 2016-9-5 14:08
这个风险比较大了，虽然不能完全和Sgh 比，但是最近只有反弹，反转的可能性很小，希望你保本或有盈利就先 ...

3.4 保本出来还是挺有难度的

lynn0227

bondzh 发表于 2016-9-5 14:16
3.4 保本出来还是挺有难度的

其实今天胆子肥一点多进一点已经盈利出了。。。。。唉我这技术还是太差

Joh0

wanghui1015 发表于 2016-9-5 12:59
I shouldn't buy in at the first place based on my first post. Not a good discipline example.

not too bad at all, you will definitely feel regret  if you are in today position. I am in the shoes for anyone who has bought the one.  anyway, it is just a game, speculating has just two choices: win or lose.  please do play with it but you should not take personal. I am still cooking meh at moment, lost my appetite.

bondzh

lynn0227 发表于 2016-9-5 14:32
其实今天胆子肥一点多进一点已经盈利出了。。。。。唉我这技术还是太差 ...

是啊，今天才出现买入信号

lynn0227

bondzh 发表于 2016-9-5 14:43
是啊，今天才出现买入信号

所以没事不能随便逛论坛。。。。。

yourock

bondzh 发表于 2016-9-5 14:43
是啊，今天才出现买入信号

买入信号？现在能买吗？

Joh0

bondzh 发表于 2016-9-5 14:43
是啊，今天才出现买入信号

大黄鸭，给看看，这个能不能在上一层，个人感觉就是超卖，反弹啊。

bondzh

yourock 发表于 2016-9-5 14:44
买入信号？现在能买吗？

现在风险就大了，上面10日线加上缺口上沿的阻力，最好等确定突破3.1再买，因为有可能回补缺口继续跌

dragonballz

bondzh 发表于 2016-9-5 14:16
3.4 保本出来还是挺有难度的

This one strongly reminds me the fate of PRY had. When government froze billing index, PRY was tanked to $2 (down from 4.5), but eventually climbed back to $4 territory. Hopefully it will catch up later.

wanghui1015

dragonballz 发表于 2016-9-5 17:29
This one strongly reminds me the fate of PRY had. When government froze billing index, PRY was tan ...

恭喜解套

yourock

wanghui1015 发表于 2016-9-7 11:11
恭喜解套

解套是跑还是继续等盈利？

wanghui1015

yourock 发表于 2016-9-7 12:42
解套是跑还是继续等盈利？

我搞不过恶庄，在这股上没感觉，几次操作亏了近5000多，我去操作自己熟悉的股票了，问问重仓的高手吧

dragonballz

wanghui1015 发表于 2016-9-7 12:45
我搞不过恶庄，在这股上没感觉，几次操作亏了近5000多，我去操作自己熟悉的股票了，问问重仓的高手吧 ...

When it was tanked 40%, I was holding. I don't believe I would sell it now :) Keep holding till dividend pays

lynn0227

是的嘛。。。礼拜5不接个飞刀也未必看得到礼拜1的戏啊。。放一放。。

lynn0227

今天闪了。。。再涨也不是我的了。。。这场大戏看的我有点后怕 哈哈

dragonballz

lynn0227 发表于 2016-9-23 15:15
今天闪了。。。再涨也不是我的了。。。这场大戏看的我有点后怕 哈哈

不等dividend？12.8c一股呀！我选择再投资换股

lynn0227

dragonballz 发表于 2016-9-23 15:19
不等dividend？12.8c一股呀！我选择再投资换股

当天也会跌12.8的呀。。我感觉短期累计的涨幅有点大，下周有机会买回来就买，买不回来就算了。。。