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[个股讨论] 特斯拉看起来很不错啊(20240416更新) [复制链接]

发表于 2022-12-23 09:28 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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Elon Musk has become a joke like Trump. He’s also accelerating Twitter’s decline
When Elon Musk turned Tesla into a behemoth, he pulled the same stunts he did with Twitter—fire people, make them work crazy hours, behave like a megalomaniac.
Is Elon Musk the new Donald Trump? It is a serious question. Just consider the parallels. The defining characteristic of Trump’s presidency was that while he regularly did things that were mad/disgusting/boorish/foolish/offensive and illogical, all of us watched him with a certain horrified fascination. TV channels saw their ratings shoot up. On websites, Trump-related content became clickbait. And on social media, Trump was the subject of daily trends.


Now, consider what is happening with Musk. Until he bought Twitter, he was a hero to many in business but not that well known to the general public. We knew that he owned Tesla, a very cool car company, and that he liked rockets and satellites. We also knew that he was very rich—in fact, the world’s richest, for a while.

So far, so good. Then he bought Twitter and turned it into an Elon Musk Show. And now we know.

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Sink metaphor, bizarre schemes
There was, first of all, the I-will-I-won’t game he played with Twitter before finally buying it. Then there was the massive price —$44 billion—he paid for it. Musk reckons himself that he paid twice what it was worth. Then, after he had arrived at Twitter headquarters carrying a sink, a metaphor for something or the other (though not apparently: “this company is going to sink” or “watch Twitter go down the drain”), his Big Idea was to sack nearly everyone. Senior executives were escorted from the building. According to The New York Times, Musk has sacked over half of Twitter’s workforce. Many more have left. This came as a bit of a surprise because while Twitter has often been criticised, the fact that it was overstaffed was not a common criticism.

Next, he instituted a series of measures, some of which were so bizarre that they had to be reversed or overturned. He talked about allowing free speech on Twitter and re-instated Donald Trump’s account. This went less well than expected because Trump refused to return to Twitter. Musk clearly had second thoughts about free speech because he began to suspend accounts of journalists who were critical of him, and of sites that tracked private planes.


Aware that he had overpaid for Twitter, he tried to raise revenues by selling Twitter’s blue ticks. A blue tick against your name means that Twitter has verified your account. This is useful because people often set up accounts in the names of celebrities and post damaging or idiotic things. So, it helps to identify a public figure’s real account.

But once Musk made the blue ticks available to everyone for $8 a month, this distinction collapsed. So-called ‘verified’ handles run by imposters got blue ticks (even ‘Jesus Christ’ appeared on Twitter with a verified account) and rude tweets went out from bogus accounts.

Musk had to abandon that scheme. Next, he fought with advertisers, including Apple, before backing down. Nevertheless, he has packed Twitter with so many ads that many users are unhappy. Musk also stopped paying rent on Twitter’s offices. He falsely accused the company’s former head of trust and safety of paedophilia.


Also read: The Twitter Files 2.0 — how teams ‘blacklisted users, stopped tweets from trending’

Parallels with Trump
Inevitably Musk has become a joke figure, the target of sneers on late night TV shows where he is mocked as a megalomaniac. Many of the jokes about him could have been written about Trump. When Musk himself has made live appearances (as on stand-up comedian David Chappelle’s show), he has been booed.

In recent weeks, Musk has done two unusual things, one very Trumpian and the other, just weird. Like Trump, he has gone on and on about liberal conspiracies and portrayed himself as a man who will save Twitter from Leftists. Unlike Trump, however, he gladly allowed his future to be tested in a poll and said he will abide by the result.


Musk asked Twitter users if he should step down as CEO. When a majority said yes, he was uncharacteristically silent (critics said he was shocked by the unexpected results) before finally agreeing that he would give up the job when he finds someone who was crazy enough to take it. It remains to be seen whether he will keep his word. Or whether, like Trump, he will rubbish the poll and urge his supporters to ‘stop the steal’.

Like Trump, Musk seems to have no interest in doing the things that his job requires him to do: fixing Twitter. He seems to admit shadow banning exists but nothing has changed. The use of the platform for spreading hatred continues. The number of followers and how they are calculated remains a mystery.


And here’s the final Trump parallel. Despite everything he did while he was in office, Trump still remains a figure to reckon with in US politics. He has a shot at getting the Republican nomination again and could even — who knows — become President again.

People who have watched Musk closely over the years say that it might be a mistake to underestimate him. When he turned Tesla into a behemoth, he pulled some of the same stunts there: firing people, making employees work crazy hours, claiming that bankruptcy was imminent unless they went ‘hardcore,’ picking fights, antagonising regulators, and behaving like a megalomaniac. It is strategy, they say, not hubris.

Perhaps. But as of now, the madness threatens to engulf both Twitter, which is in a state of chaos, and Tesla, whose shares have dropped precipitously since Musk’s Twitter adventure began.


It is possible that a new CEO would stabilise Twitter. But even before Musk took over, the platform was already on a downward spiral. Musk’s antics may have accelerated that decline.

For all of us who use and often enjoy Twitter, this is bad news.

It may be too early to be sure about what Musk is really up to. But like Trump, he will keep us enthralled: expect more crazy episodes of the Elon Musk Show every week!
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发表于 2022-12-23 09:29 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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这篇文章满好玩的。
就跟看真人秀的心情。

发表于 2022-12-23 09:33 |显示全部楼层
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已经开始动用我的紧急备用金了。
专门为股市异常下跌准备的钱。

发表于 2022-12-23 09:37 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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特斯拉如果下探100。是可以买点 call 的时候了。

发表于 2022-12-23 09:37 |显示全部楼层
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tzzx89 发表于 2022-12-23 08:14
大部分的情况其实是马斯克自己吧 需要资金拯救twitter然后疯狂套现,从300到目前125 他起码贡献了一半
...

他卖出的股份如果在上涨周期,基本算不上什么,基本跌一天,第二天就可以填平。 但他需要资金的时候,刚好不是好时机,反而被空头利用, 产生放大效益。

发表于 2022-12-23 09:41 |显示全部楼层
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superdigua 发表于 2022-12-22 15:33
只要不破产,股票价格迟早会随着基本面上涨。

期权收益主要决定于市场情绪。

短线炒作(赌博)和长线持有(投资)是两件没什么相关的事。

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发表于 2022-12-23 10:08 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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z3282998 发表于 2022-12-23 09:41
短线炒作(赌博)和长线持有(投资)是两件没什么相关的事。

这个观点我同意一半,如果宏观政策不变,那就是长线持有。但如果宏观看衰,那就应该止损,等一阵子宏观好了再买入。

发表于 2022-12-23 10:25 |显示全部楼层
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superdigua 发表于 2022-12-22 07:01
坚定看好。

我的成本。。。。。你可以从一楼发帖时间推算。


你就知道直接大家儿平均成本得了呗

从一楼发帖时间算,你也没说买多少股,到底那时候买没买,后来在什么价位上买了多少股,这咋推算啊?算术题条件都不够

还有现在你是不是得加仓了啊??比你180加仓的时候低那么多呢,多划算

发表于 2022-12-23 10:46 |显示全部楼层
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wxm611 发表于 2022-12-23 09:08
这个观点我同意一半,如果宏观政策不变,那就是长线持有。但如果宏观看衰,那就应该止损,等一阵子宏观好 ...

股市是宏观经济的预判而已,你现在觉得宏观经济不好,股市大概率已经消化了。当然,你如果觉得你能预判宏观经济(你觉得不好),并且你认为你的预判还没有被股市消化,当然可以做出止损的操作。不过,我不觉得有人有这个本事。

发表于 2022-12-23 11:18 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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还没到月底就122了
感觉2022底 tesla 收100附近
elon已经没有公信力了

发表于 2022-12-23 11:33 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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马斯克表示,2025年之前不会再出售特斯拉股票。特斯拉盘后上涨了一些
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发表于 2022-12-23 13:11 |显示全部楼层
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大老板忙着抛售股票,散户忙着接飞刀,投资市场真的是挺疯狂的。

发表于 2022-12-24 08:30 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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z3282998 发表于 2022-12-23 10:46
股市是宏观经济的预判而已,你现在觉得宏观经济不好,股市大概率已经消化了。当然,你如果觉得你能预判宏 ...


股市消化了一些宏观经济,但目前为止还没有消化公司的盈利下滑。明年财报很危险的。今年明年 很明显是向下的。

发表于 2022-12-24 08:55 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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还远未到底,明年美国经济衰退是大概率事件,如果通胀要回到2%目前看来几乎不可能……悲观一点,目前的价格再腰斩也是有可能的,我猜底可能在60-70美元左右,不过对长线持有者来说,这两年是个不错的布局机会,2024如果共和党回来,不管是不是川普,24-25应该都会有一个科技股牛市!

2019年度勋章

发表于 2022-12-24 09:26 |显示全部楼层
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chier819 发表于 2022-12-24 07:55
还远未到底,明年美国经济衰退是大概率事件,如果通胀要回到2%目前看来几乎不可能……悲观一点,目前的价格 ...

你怎么看 764 楼的图?

https://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/ ... 67&pid=42678526
舆论自由意味着容忍自己不喜欢的言论的存在。
我的观点当然可能是错误的。可以拉黑,无权屏蔽。

发表于 2022-12-24 09:44 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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chier819 发表于 2022-12-24 07:55
还远未到底,明年美国经济衰退是大概率事件,如果通胀要回到2%目前看来几乎不可能……悲观一点,目前的价格 ...

好乐观的预测啊。。
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发表于 2022-12-24 19:43 |显示全部楼层
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Tesla目前的market cap 还是Toyota的两倍
什么时候低过Toyota才是回归正常的开始 估计还要腰折一下

发表于 2022-12-24 20:33 |显示全部楼层
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完全没有任何反弹的迹象。 135还没来得割肉就122了。感觉年末就是100

发表于 2022-12-24 21:03 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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hlg0606 发表于 2022-12-24 20:33
完全没有任何反弹的迹象。 135还没来得割肉就122了。感觉年末就是100

7,80可以补一些。60几 算捡漏了

发表于 2022-12-24 23:52 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 henryxjf 于 2022-12-24 23:58 编辑

特斯拉的pe38,forward pe只有23,绝对已经在价值区间,就算不是最低,现在120的价格没理由不买,现在还割肉的要么是急用钱要么就是妥妥的股市大韭,就算跌到70-80再涨回来也是很快的事,现在连麦当劳的forward pe都要高过特斯拉

发表于 2022-12-25 00:08 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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henryxjf 发表于 2022-12-24 23:52
特斯拉的pe38,forward pe只有23,绝对已经在价值区间,就算不是最低,现在120的价格没理由不买,现在还割 ...

一路过来看到很多人喊 跌到300 我就买
跌倒200我就买
跌倒80我all in

但其实这些人无论哪个价位都只在喊
不知道签什么
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发表于 2022-12-25 00:23 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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lostmyway 发表于 2022-12-25 00:08
一路过来看到很多人喊 跌到300 我就买
跌倒200我就买
跌倒80我all in

我同意,很多人看股票的只看k线图和数字,而不会透过基本面去研究公司的真正价值,短期的股价很容易被情绪面引导,但是股票长期的趋势还是要看公司的盈利状况,特斯拉只要保持新能源汽车这一块的盈利,不看什么自动驾驶,人脑芯片,space x等等,哪怕是未来发展速度有所减缓,也对得起现在$120美金的股价,经济周期总会转回去,就算特斯拉跌到了80,也有可能牛市1-2年就涨个3-4倍,参考2019-2021

发表于 2022-12-25 00:50 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 haohaohao 于 2022-12-25 00:52 编辑
henryxjf 发表于 2022-12-25 00:23
我同意,很多人看股票的只看k线图和数字,而不会透过基本面去研究公司的真正价值,短期的股价很容易被情 ...


造电动车真不是啥了不起的事,看看中国一大堆电动车厂,以及那些又能造车又能生产电池的中企。特斯拉没有投资价值。

2019年度勋章

发表于 2022-12-25 06:45 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 superdigua 于 2022-12-25 05:46 编辑
henryxjf 发表于 2022-12-24 22:52
特斯拉的pe38,forward pe只有23,绝对已经在价值区间,就算不是最低,现在120的价格没理由不买,现在还割 ...


对于最近的股价下跌,我觉得 @FrankPeelen 的解释最靠谱.

股价由边际买家和卖家决定。这次,有大佬做出了悲观判断,导致股价大跌。

https://twitter.com/FrankPeelen/status/1606568382228488192

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舆论自由意味着容忍自己不喜欢的言论的存在。
我的观点当然可能是错误的。可以拉黑,无权屏蔽。

2019年度勋章

发表于 2022-12-25 06:47 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 superdigua 于 2022-12-25 06:36 编辑
haohaohao 发表于 2022-12-24 23:50
造电动车真不是啥了不起的事,看看中国一大堆电动车厂,以及那些又能造车又能生产电池的中企。特斯拉没有 ...


》》中国一大堆电动车厂

利润率如何?

特斯拉的造车利润丰厚

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舆论自由意味着容忍自己不喜欢的言论的存在。
我的观点当然可能是错误的。可以拉黑,无权屏蔽。

发表于 2022-12-25 09:53 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 haohaohao 于 2022-12-25 09:56 编辑
superdigua 发表于 2022-12-25 06:47
》》中国一大堆电动车厂

利润率如何?


特斯拉的造车利润丰厚,但特斯拉电动汽车比国内汽车在质量与技术上有多大优势吗?电动车的核心技术在电池,电池制造设计龙头是中企。一旦神话破灭,丰厚的利润即消失。

苹果的成功在于它的iOS, 一流芯片。这些无可仿照。特斯拉有什么?
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发表于 2022-12-25 10:19 |显示全部楼层
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特斯拉北美降价$7500

发表于 2022-12-25 11:07 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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下周100
3月前75
2023年底50

2019年度勋章

发表于 2022-12-25 11:12 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 superdigua 于 2022-12-25 10:13 编辑
haohaohao 发表于 2022-12-25 08:53
特斯拉的造车利润丰厚,但特斯拉电动汽车比国内汽车在质量与技术上有多大优势吗?电动车的核心技术在电池 ...


电池的优劣体现在能耗上,能耗取决于方方面面,尤其是温控。与电芯关系不大。

另外,特斯拉有自己设计的 FSD 芯片和 DOJO D1芯片,以及相关软件。
舆论自由意味着容忍自己不喜欢的言论的存在。
我的观点当然可能是错误的。可以拉黑,无权屏蔽。

发表于 2022-12-25 11:13 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 z3282998 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 z3282998 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
sky20000 发表于 2022-12-25 09:19
特斯拉北美降价$7500

这个主要就是应对那个 明年7500政府补貼
特斯拉降同样的价格 鼓励大家今年买车

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