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hotcoppercui 发表于 2016-4-29 16:51 
RMR
镍矿
今天重新来到聚光灯下.
按照这个意思, 继续放送我最中意的TGS
这个股票跟了一年多了. 最开始进的时候接近9c;
铜里面比pna成本低, 但是矿比PNA小. PNA前年被中国广东一家企业收购了, 报价1.7还是1.8澳元每股好像.
all in sustainable cost is 1.5/磅, 记不清具体数字了, 反正是显著低于售价2/磅. debottlenecking 之后all in sustainable cost是1.25USD/磅, 利润相当之高. 所以当时就入了, 但是由于债务restructure问题一直被打压, 去年底解决了, 结果配上了一个cr; 然后整个资源板块被干.
该票资产净值是14c每股. 所以可以长期拿着当养老. 资源板块一起来, 估计应该回到应有水平. 至少20c的吧.
这个没有债务问题了, 然后成本如此之低, 利润如此之高很少见. 憋了很久了.
之前没推荐是因为资源板块整个不明朗, 现在bhp问题解决了, 我觉着整个sentiment变了, 大家在抄底资源股. 尤其被干得狠的,
实际上从去年10-11月精炼铜缺口已经出现, 年底进一步扩大.
今年国际铜研究协会 也预测铜供应短缺会进一步扩大
http://www.icsg.org/index.php/co ... sh/114/2147?Itemid=
TGS 新的ann有一个新发现参见 其4月14号ann 第18页和第20页
其实之前就有 这次特别看到了.
TGS已经探明的钴的储量是4万7千吨.
这比很多专门的所谓的钴矿企业的估计储量总和还高.
而钴一般是铜矿和镍矿伴生的,就是开采铜和镍的时候顺便开采出来的, 基本不会增加很多额外的成本.
钴据说由于锂电池的应用, 以及永磁体里的应用 而将出现短缺. 下面是引用:
For anyone who wants to understand the value of Cobalt better, please check below
http://investorintel.com/technol ... t-cliff-is-upon-us/
annually:-
[IMG]
http://investorintel.com/market- ... ies/#comment-537803
well bugger me this graph also shows that Cobalt "magnet" consumption jumped about 20% in 2011 - when rare earth prices spiked
John Petersen goes onto say:-
My simpler view is that the eight non-battery industrial sectors have predictable annual needs that they must satisfy regardless of market prices
Since the battery industry expects even faster growth in the future and is very sensitive to raw material costs, it seems appropriate to note that a return to $52 per pound cobalt ..... (dude Cobalt is presently around $10 per pound - that's around a 420% price increase should it occur)
When I reviewed the tonnage of cobalt shipped to battery manufacturers during the last nine years, I was amazed to learn that 2014 demand from the battery industry was 270% of 2006 demand. Growth rates like that don’t happen in mining.
Cobalt’s status as a by-product of nickel and copper mining precludes the possibility of abundant cobalt supplies for the battery industry. Competition from eight well-established industrial sectors that need predictable volumes of cobalt every year precludes the possibility that the battery industry will be able to outbid competitive cobalt users. Declining cobalt production during a period of rapidly increasing demand from a single industry is likely to have a highly adverse impact on cobalt prices ....
http://investorintel.com/market- ... ies/#comment-537803
Likely outcomes:-
High performance Dy-free magnet manufactures (they use Cobalt) if they can get the Cobalt then they will likely pay through the nose for it - pushing up the price for the Dy-free magnets they produce and sell
If the Cobalt price is bid to unrealistic high levels and flows through to Dy-free magnet costs - then expect some high performance magnet users may switch back to traditional Dy high performance magnets
There are plenty of information on huge Cobalt deficit in the coming months already. Lets see how it plays out on TGS.
Rocket it up the only direction I could see!
最近很多搞钴的小矿在几个星期的时间里已经翻了3倍了. 基本上品位没法跟TGS比. 而且TGS的探明储量基本上跟中国全国的探明储量相当. 其他这些小矿还没有到PFS, BFS, 还没有任何开矿的facility, 这些要用几百个million才能堆起来的. 而TGS几乎什么都有了, Co作为伴生副产品, 基本上可以顺便提取, 不会增加太多额外成本 (肯定会增加一些, 但具体我也没有数据).
TGS的价值看来可以重估一下了
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个人投机计划乱谈，写在美元破百之际（二楼更新期市、房市、汇市、A股完毕，欢迎拍砖） (2015-4-1) shdanding 
楼主:Devil_Star
发表于 2016-4-29 16:41
