2016年澳洲股票贴！！！

yongqianyin0322

这两天没什么事情，这里有个新手在问关于入门的情况，各位有空过去回答个问题吧：

http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/f ... &extra=page%3D1

我先发了一帖抛砖引玉。大家畅所欲言，随便说两句啥的都行。

leslie1207

charum 发表于 2016-3-24 18:05
照你这么说，dick smith还是双头。。。结果呢。。。

DSE哪里算得上是垄断地位？这个类比并不恰当

543

luckysky 发表于 2016-3-22 11:47
耐心等待，目前在试盘，引诱套牢者抛售，真正的行情还没来呢。我都等了5个多月，不要急。天天观察，和主 ...

哈哈，有耐心必然有厚报，整理洗盘 收集筹码明显，只是何时启动还不好说

tu2011

现在WOW面临严峻的竞争形势，前有WES堵截，后有ALDI和COSCTO追兵，所以。。。

amyo(∩_∩)o

wanghui1015 发表于 2016-3-24 12:11
非常同意，但关于WOW的潜在收购，并不是空穴来风，已经见报多次，我之前已经吃过Wotif的大亏了，收购前股 ...

收购wow那得多大的公司。我本来意味wow把赔钱的masters分离出去会好点没想到市场只维持了两天乐观。

百步穿杨

yongqianyin0322 发表于 2016-3-24 18:56
这两天没什么事情，这里有个新手在问关于入门的情况，各位有空过去回答个问题吧：

http://www.oursteps.co ...

善行。赞。

simonly

yongqianyin0322 发表于 2016-3-24 14:36
SEA 0.185 获利清仓

短期没有上行的动力了。

真不错啊

Pannytam

tu2011 发表于 2016-3-24 20:58
现在WOW面临严峻的竞争形势，前有WES堵截，后有ALDI和COSCTO追兵，所以。。。

因为业绩好，一直关注有年多，是一个趋势向下的股票，还是不入为好

charum

yongqianyin0322 发表于 2016-3-24 18:30
我说的长线是指好几年那种  如果今年金价做底的话，那估计明后年就能翻番了。 ...

你这长线没操作意义。。。先降50%再翻番，没几个人等得到

charum

leslie1207 发表于 2016-3-24 19:37
DSE哪里算得上是垄断地位？这个类比并不恰当

Dick smith,  和 jb HiFi啊，这不正像wools 和 Coles么

leslie1207

charum 发表于 2016-3-25 09:21
Dick smith,  和 jb HiFi啊，这不正像wools 和 Coles么

差远了吧，远远达不到wow和wes的市场地位～差了几个数量级了～

fendy002

现在coles的市场份额是31%,woolies是36%。woolies下降了不少

simonly

yongqianyin0322 发表于 2016-3-24 14:36
SEA 0.185 获利清仓

短期没有上行的动力了。

想请问凭什么判定没有上行的动力了，是上方挂着的筹码量，还是看图像？收盘时又跌下来到0.165了，神操作啊

Dom

Devil_Star 发表于 2016-2-17 09:04
有~一直被压在箱底下

DS, IVR我均价2c割肉了，尽管低位补过仓，但还是亏损大约20%。
盘面上的感觉，主力近期不太敢突破2c ，怕砸在自己手上。

两只小猪爸

yongqianyin0322 发表于 2016-3-24 14:36
SEA 0.185 获利清仓

短期没有上行的动力了。

这一手做的果断
我昨天下午上不了网  没来得及走
这一捂又不知多久了 还好进的不多  周二开盘看情况考虑要不要止损吧

yongqianyin0322

simonly 发表于 2016-3-25 17:06
想请问凭什么判定没有上行的动力了，是上方挂着的筹码量，还是看图像？收盘时又跌下来到0.165了，神操作 ...

具体的分析我给你发了私信，因为涉及自己交易系统的问题，一个怕误导大家，因为我的操作还不成熟，另一个如果谁都知道的话以后这个操作就不管用了 （当然可能本来就不管用）。

从基本面来看，那天的宗旨就是抢个反弹就跑。至于0.185是不是最高点，这个基本上靠蒙，原因我也给你私信了。

yongqianyin0322

两只小猪爸 发表于 2016-3-25 22:23
这一手做的果断
我昨天下午上不了网  没来得及走
这一捂又不知多久了 还好进的不多  周二开盘看情况考 ...

油和金一样，都是长期看涨的，不过希望你这回买的不多...

tm_mingtan

这周Hopper上Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge讨论基本面分析选股，我看几个人的观点都不错，和我不谋而和，决定翻译一下。都是比较基础的东西，算是科普吧。非专业人士，有些用词不准确，请多包涵。
原帖地址：
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ ... 34662/#.VvUrVI9OKzk

1.
首先，Freehold关于板块分析”
"On FA Analysis ...
Step one is Start with the Sector review  ... Is it hot or is it not.
Is it starting to get increased interest. For example   Lithium hot, Gold hot ... Coal Not, Oil interest picking up   If you looking at two stocks one is lithium the other is Coal ... the decision on which to focus on is fairly easy.  Don't waste time with sector that no one cares about unless you plan to sit on a stock for several years before realising a profit.  but STT'ers will go with whats hot or starting generate interest"
基本面分析需要看个股所在版块是否热门。比如现在锂和金都是热门，煤就不是，石油版块开始升温。2个股，一个是锂股一个是煤股，毫不犹豫选热门板块的股，而不要浪费时间在冷门板块，除非你希望等上几年。

个人评论：
板块效用是非常强大了，在矿股方面如果还记得以前的铀矿热，铜矿热，铁矿热，还有最近2年的石墨热，就知道只要选对板块，就可以等着数钱了。但是在一个板块冷下来后就不要去碰了，比如铁矿，当年的热门股BCI从5刀跌掉8分，AGO从2刀到2分

2.
然后是Sector Lead关于Enterprise Value企业价值的计算：
Enterprise Value is simply

1. Market Cap (number of shares x shareprice)
2. ADD Debt (any debt, long and short)
3. MINUS Cash and other liquid investments (like holdings in listed companies)
企业价值计算很简单
1.公司市值（总股本X股价）
2. 加上债务（任何债务无论短期还是长期）
3.减去现金和其它高流通性资产（比如其它公司的股票）
Why is it more important to know EV. You could get 2 companies with same market cap and earnings but one could be cash strapped, and the other could be 80% cash.
The PE ratio will be the same, however if company B (with high cash) deploys the cash in an earning positive manner, they will have an advantage on company A...
企业价值为什么重要呢，因为股市中可能2价相似的公司，市值差不多而且盈利也差不多。但是1家公司可能现金流很紧张，而另1家公司可能有很多现金。
这2家公司现在PE值可能一样，但是如果现金多的公司吧现金投入到增加盈利的活动中，现金多的公司比起现金紧张的公司就有很大优势，
and that's where we should look at PEG ratios (worth further reading for newbies - google it), and the PEG ratio adds in the expected future 12 month growth rate into the PE.
If a company is growing earnings faster than current PE ratio, then this is considered better than a company on a PE of 10 growing earnings at 10%pa. As if another company is growing at 20% pa, the PE will become cheaper on paper if the share price doesn't shift.
所以我们应该关注PEG PE增长值而不是单看PE，就是把未来PE增长的比例的预期算进来。
PEG增高，而股价不变，PE就会显得更低些。这句话原文写的有些问题，只好这样翻译了。
You might also consider payable and receivables into your EV valuations, although not common, I ALWAYS looks at payables vs receivables in the reports, as this can change EV dramatically, especially for those mining/ resources companies in large capex phase, ie drilling or building plant.
在计算企业价值的时候，你也可能需要考虑应付帐款和应收账款，因为有些情况下会对企业价值带来很大变化，特别是那些矿和资源股，比如在钻探和建厂的时候。
这点也很重要因为油气勘探股打一次井不管出不出油都会费不少钱，所以会对计算带来很大影响。
I don't consider options UNLESS they are in the money and unconverted as the cash conversion add cash to the balance sheet and EV remains the same.
Escrow shares should be in the total issue, they are just not sell-able during a set period, but have no effect on EV whatsoever.
这位作者在计算企业价值的时候一般不计算期权，除非是到了执行价格但没有被执行的期权，因为被执行的期权会增加现金所以企业价值变化很小。
但是被托管的股票应该被计算到总股本里，因为它们虽然在一定时间段内无法交易，但是对企业价值的影响还是和正常股票一样。
Remember, the market is always trying to price in future profits and growth, whether actually or potential, and then reacts daily to actual results, news.
牢记，股市总是会把一个公司未来的增长和盈利算入到股价里，无论是已经实现的或者只是潜在的，然后股市会由实际结果和新闻来调整对股价的预期。

个人评论：
我认为这里最重要的估计就是最后这一段，这就是为什么有时候一个股发好消息反而跌的原因，比如A2M发半年报说盈利增长多少但是却高开低走的原因，因为好消息已经被Price In股价里了，看到好消息追高的都成了接盘侠。

3.TheGladiator关于Valuation of peers 同类型公司的估值和比较
When determining whether a company is "cheap" and therefore has more room to run, it's important to see how it's valued compared to its peers who are at a similar point in its life cycle. You should also look at those who are more advanced to see possibly how much room the stock can run if it meets it's objective.
当考虑一家公司是否被低估然后有大的升值空间的时候，把这家公司和其它位于类似成长周期的公司做比较是很重要的。然后你也需要看下同类公司中更成熟更大公司，来计算如果这家公司达到了各种目标成为了未来的成熟的大公司能有多少升值空间。
As an example let's look at SRT. Based on my research on fintech companies who are making  $1m NPAT per year, they have a MC of $100m+. So SRT first performance milestone is $1m NPAT and if the vendors don't achieve this they pretty much get nothing. So SRT currently has a MC of 26 million and will have 1.55 b shares if milestone one is achieved. So 100mil MC = 6.5c. So theoretically srt will minimum 2 bag if milestone 1 is achieved
然后举例说明，SRT，根据作者的研究金融技术公司能达到税后盈利1百万的，市值都有1亿多，所以SRT第1目标是达到税后盈利1百万，这也是管理层能拿到奖励的目标，达不到就没有了。SRT现在股价2.2分，市值是2千6百万，有15亿股，所以如果第1目标能实现，SRT就有可能达到1亿市值，那股价就要到6.5分，也是现在股价的3倍。

个人评论：
这点也是我对小公司未来升值潜力的估算方法，不少小矿股，小IT股都可以用这种方法来做预期估值，然后根据实际表现来调整。

4. TheGladiator关于How many do directors hold公司管理层持股

This is very important as when directors have skin in the game they will be more than likely look after themselves as well as shareholders. So no massive dilutions and being very prudent with company finances. They will also ensure placements go to sticky hands as they wouldn't want to see constant pump and dumps. Very good example is DUO which Peter wall had no shares in and was diluted to hell and back numerous times. Matthew walker though was very smart about it and raised at good prices most of the time to very sticky holders.
公司管理层持股非常重要，如果他们有很多股份，他们就更有可能照顾到所有股东的权利。他们一般很少会大量的发新股来稀释股权，然后对公司的财政也会更加谨慎，增发的时候也会选择能长期持股的股东来增发而是干一票就走的人来增发。一个很好的例子就是DUO，当年前任经理Peter Wall没有多少持股，所以常随意增发股票，后来的Matthew walker 有很多股票，搞增发就非常谨慎，选择好的价格和增发对象。

个人评论：
补充一点就是管理层增持和减持股票也很重要。因为他们运行公司有第一手资料。

5. TheGladiator关于How many do top 20 hold前20名最大的股东

The more the top 20 hold the tighter the register. This means there is less free float available of shares which will be sold on market. The less shares available to be sold the easier it is for the share price to run. The people in the top 20 are also important. If you have people in the top 20 who consistently back winners they will more than likely attract other good investors who follow them.
前20名最大的股东持股越多，股权就越集中。这样市场上流动股就越少。可以卖出的股越少，股价就越容易攀升。前20名最大的股东的组成也很重要，如果里面的投资者股东常常能选对大牛股，别的投资者也更容易被吸引过来成为股东。

个人评论：
这点也是老生常谈，如果一家公司巴菲特成为了大股东，估计普通股民买起来也更放心。我个人一般不持有Top20持股在50%一下的，股权分散说明散户持股过多，这样的股是很难涨起来的。

6.TheGladiator关于Performance of current directors现任管理层的表现
This is extremely important. We are trusting directors with our money so if they haven't performed in the past what makes you think they will perform in this stock. Mark creasy in the mining game and Matthew walker in the shell game are great examples. Check what companies the directors have worked in and see the share price performance to work out how successful they have been.
这是非常非常重要的，我们把钱给这些管理层来管理，如果他们在以前的公司没有成功经验，那你为什么认为他们在现在的公司就能成功呢？Mark creasy 在管理矿产公司和Matthew walker在运作空壳公司的时候都是非常成功的。可以去看看他们的表现。

john435是矿股基本面分析的高人，他有一份多年积累的上市公司管理层表，知道哪些人可以信任，成功率高，哪些人是圈钱的骗子。
I was warned sometime ago by a lawyer to be careful about putting my list up in a public place ....defamation actions I don't need   .....suffice to say there is a plethora of information available if people dig hard enough .Go and look at previous companies directors have been involved in,and phoenixs  which keep doing consolidations and name changes.Are they opportunists? or have they displayed prudence in running a company. Also if you've ever spoken to them and later found they've told you a porkie .Watch too their history in how they release news ie Friday afternoons after market close not the best start. Any that have tried to silence shareholders through legal action. Salary packages ,keep an eye on what might be excessive. How often they have diluted holders through incessant capital raisings. And most importantly how they manage money on a company's behalf.
但是他不能把这个单子公布出来，因为怕被告，他的忠告是多研究管理层以前任职的公司，看他们是机会主义者还是能谨慎的管理公司。或者和他们谈话结果后来发现他们只是逗你玩。看管理层怎么发布新闻，星期5晚上闭市后发新闻的都要警惕。还有是用威胁打官司的方法要求有意见的股东保持沉默。管理层的工资如何，增发怎么做的，增发的频率，最重要的就是他们怎么管理公司财政收支。
A good example of prudent action by a MD was with WIN's MD a few years ago when WIN spiked sharply during a drilling program from about 12c to above 40c .The MD David Francis did a raising at 30c during the drill campaign and raised $6m and I believe he was astute and prudent in doing so. It didn't matter to me that the drill campaign was not a success as he had ensured the company would have funds .Not long afterwards he resigned and these days is the MD of DKO.......I've been happy to back DKO with him at the helm because I thought he was an excellent strategist and money manager.
I believe the principal responsibility of a managing director is to make sure the company always has funds ....and when they raise them ....do they wait until the cupboard is bare or do they raise early and prudently on a spike at a favourable time ?
That's a brief checklist to start building your own list
一个例子是几年前WIN，一个矿产勘探股开始了一次钻探活动，在没出结果前股价因为预期随之飙升，从12分到40分，经理 David Francis 便在30分增发，这样即使勘探没有成功，这个公司也有了足够的钱进行下次勘探。后来他辞职了换了别的公司，作者也就跟随他投资新的这家公司，因为他在资金管理和运作方面能力非常强。
作者认为一个经理要保证这家公司总有足够的资金。当他们需要筹集新的资金的时候，他们是等到钱快没有了还是趁着股价飙升的时候在好的时机来增发？
你可以以这个为基本来自己研究管理层。

个人评论：
这点我认为是所有分析中重中之重，一个好的管理层有时就是公司价值的一半。我写过关于SLC和MP1就是这样的例子的典型。
http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/f ... &authorid=67636

7. TheGladiator关于What are it's upcoming milestones公司未来的里程碑
From a STT  perspective we rely on announcements and big milestones to make money. If a company has no big milestones coming up then what will make the share price move up?
These milestones are also important in understanding when to time our entries. Depending on our trading strategy you can time your entry.  Personally I like to get in 6 weeks earlier than when a milestone is due so there is less competition from other traders.
中段线交易，公司的重大公告和里程碑是我们赚钱的关键。如果公司短时间内不会有有新闻或者达到什么目标，那股价怎么会上升呢？
这些里程碑对我们选择入场的时机也很重要。根据不同的交易策略，我们可以选择不同的时机入场。作者个人喜欢在预期达到一个里程碑6个星期前入场，这样竞争较少。

个人评论：
按个人交易策略掌握好入场时机，防止出现了买了就跌，卖了就涨的情况出现。

8. john435关于矿股基本面分析的一些技巧
Read every announcement by every resource company - screenshot all maps, all drill results and all core photos .File by region or country/ mineral type/deposit type and other files for assays and another for core photo library
读每个矿股的发布的每个公告，记录他们的矿区的地图，钻探结果，钻探标本的照片。把矿区按国家/地区，矿类型，矿石类型分类，把钻探标本照片做成钻探标本照片博物馆。
Keep track of tenement positions -who is where ,who the neighbours are,which companies are applying for ground in specific areas - a good example is KSN recently I spotted they had applied for ground prospective for lithium and bought them at .008 and 1c .Later that day the volume and price increase was spotted by those who monitor for that and went up 280% until management called a TH ....I think they were confused what to say . The next morning as they continued higher I set tight stops and subsequently exited for better then 100% gain in 48 hours .
跟踪各公司的勘探区，在哪里，在谁的旁边，哪家公司在申请哪里的矿区。KSN是一个很好的例子，他们申请了一个区域的锂的勘探权，被作者看到，就提前买入，结果2天就翻倍了。
Look for unusual volume movements in a stock price that hasn't had recent news also .There are leaky boats out there. Information is hard to control with mobile phones these days.
观察任何股票没有近期公告或新闻但是成交量和股价出现异常。总是会有泄露的消息。

个人评论：
我一直很Respect john435关于矿股的基本面分析，因为他所做的研究的深入性。其中钻探标本照片博物馆就是非常好的点子，因为很多时候钻探标本出来后会发个图片，但是结果要等一段时间来分析，如果能通过照片进行大致分析，就能显著的提高投资矿股的成功率。

simonly

yongqianyin0322 发表于 2016-3-26 01:12
具体的分析我给你发了私信，因为涉及自己交易系统的问题，一个怕误导大家，因为我的操作还不成熟，另一个 ...

非常感谢

tehualiu

tm_mingtan 发表于 2016-3-26 01:34
这周Hopper上Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge讨论基本面分析选股，我看几个人的观点都不错，和我不谋而 ...

長知䛊了(paopaobing(68))

tu2011

tm_mingtan 发表于 2016-3-26 01:34
这周Hopper上Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge讨论基本面分析选股，我看几个人的观点都不错，和我不谋而 ...

太强了

百步穿杨

tm_mingtan 发表于 2016-3-26 01:34
这周Hopper上Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge讨论基本面分析选股，我看几个人的观点都不错，和我不谋而 ...

绝对高手。

dcao

tm_mingtan 发表于 2016-3-26 01:34
这周Hopper上Short Term Trading Weekend Lounge讨论基本面分析选股，我看几个人的观点都不错，和我不谋而 ...

然后举例说明，SRT，根据作者的研究金融技术公司能达到税后盈利1百万的，市值都有1亿多，所以SRT第1目标是达到税后盈利1百万，这也是管理层能拿到奖励的目标，达不到就没有了。SRT现在股价2.2分，市值是2千6百万，有15亿股，所以如果第1目标能实现，SRT就有可能达到1亿市值，那股价就要到6.5分，也是现在股价的3倍。

严重同意，SRT绝对有这个实力~~~

MiaMin

tm_mingtan

继续翻译一部分：
Sector Lead关于PEG ratios市盈率-成长比率

Price Earnings/ Growth ratio.
市盈率/成长值
This is a useful extension of the basic PE ratio. I find this is important as all of the instos are always looking for growth stocks with lower than average PEs. Many ASX stars come from this area. Dominos, Blackmores etc. Until the balance is tipped the other way, and the PE figure is many times the earnings growth figure.
这是基础市盈率一个非常有用的衍生。作者觉得这个值非常重要，因为所有的机构买家总是在寻找低市盈率的成长股。很多澳股的明星股都是这样被发掘出来的。比如说，DMP多米诺和BKL澳佳宝等。直到天平的另一段，市盈率高出成长值很多倍。（作者的意思是说低估的成长股市盈率低于或接近成长值，如果股价不断被炒高到高估的情况，市盈率就会高出成长值很多倍。）
Simple example:
Company A: Market Cap $100m/ NPAT $10m = PE 10x
If company A is growing earnings @ 20% then forecast NPAT would be $12m, and the forward PE is 8.33
举例说明，公司A市值1亿，税后利润1千万，市盈率为10. 如果这个公司盈利增长率为20%，那下个财年的预期盈利就是1千2百万，未来市盈率就是8.33
To get the PEG. Take the current PE (10) and divide by growth rate (20%).
The PEG = .5
来计算PEG，目前的市盈率10除以成长率20%，PEG就是0.5.（这里就是直接用10除以20而不是0.2）
A PEG under 1 is considered better value and more likely the stock will appreciate.
PEG低于1就表明有很大的升值潜力。
If the above example was actually listed AND in a good sector, then it's unlikely you'll find a stock as good as that.
A cheap multiple AND growing faster than PE figure.
如果这个股票是热门板块的股票，你估计很难会找到这样的股，低市盈率而高成长率的股。
Company B: Market Cap $100m/ NPAT $10m = PE 10x
If company B is struggling to grow earnings/ tough sector and just 2% is expected
公司B，值1亿，税后利润1千万，市盈率为10.
公司B盈利增长很困难，或者在一个冷门板块，盈利增长率只有2%
PE (10) divided by (2% growth) = PEG of 5
目前的市盈率10除以成长率2%，PEG就是5
Little reason for much change in the company market cap.
这家公司就没有多少升值空间。
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp

A study from the Fool
Some things to ponder
Here are a few more interesting tidbits from my study:
•92% of companies with PEG ratios of less than 1 beat the market over three years.
•68% of companies with PEG ratios of between 1 and 2 beat the market.
•47% of companies with PEG ratios greater than 2 beat the market.
http://www.fool.com/investing/va ... -the-peg-ratio.aspx
一点来自Monty Fool的研究统计，
92%的PEG低于1的公司在三年内跑赢大盘。
68%的PEG在1和2的公司在三年内跑赢大盘。
47%的PEG在2以上的公司在三年内跑赢大盘。

个人评论：
在我读过的一些关于股市的经典图书中，Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard里面就专门提到过PE和成长率的关系，高成长股PE会很高，但是因为高成长所以上升空间很大，而当它们的PE降下来的时候，反而股价开始暴跌，因为高增长无法持续。

然后是Forrestfield的帖子：
Okay different strategies for different things... First of all, everyone investing in market needs to find their own strategy... be it based on TA or FA based on time frame etc... once established, lets take the second step...
面对不同的事情要有不同的策略。每个投资股市的人都要有自己的策略，无论是技术分析还是基本面分析，一旦有了基本策略，让我们开始下一步。
Spot the trend, gains made here are larger and easier... Try to spot it earlier and then enjoy the rewards... even if you arrive late, don't worry try to find the cheapies... Like in Lithium I joined the party late but yet found 3 winners... I am not saying there wont be any winners out of the sector but easier gains can be made within the sector...
抓准趋势，这样盈利会更多更容易。尝试着在早期发现趋势的开端，然后就可以享受盈利了。即使你发现趋势晚了，不用担心还是有机会发现一些便宜的滞后股，比如锂板块，作者就发现晚了，不过还是找到3家被低估的锂矿公司并获得了很好的盈利。并不是只有在热门板块才有大牛股，只是在热门板块找牛股更容易些。
How to spot a sector? You can either be the late comer or you can be the early spotter... There are always signals... Follow the giants, billionaires, trend setters etc they always know more... For example, our iron ore giants were investing in dairy, agriculture and beef well before the Chinese changed their 1 child policy... we have seen the result, stocks made 3-10 bags in no time... Also check whats happening in Fintech now... you will see what I mean...
怎么寻找热门板块呢？你可以在一个板块大涨后进入，或者提前入场潜伏。将要出现的热门板块总是有预兆的。跟随大资金，大富豪，成功的趋势交易者，他们总比我们知道的更多。比如说，以前投资铁矿的一些巨头在中国结束一胎政策很早以前就开始布局投资牛奶，农业和牛肉了，然后我们就看到这些相关的股票升值了3到10倍。现在看看金融信息技术板块你就明白了。
How to find these signals? Simply research and research and more research... you don't have to spot every trend, one trend is enough to set you up well... and if invested the right amount of money at right time, you are done for life.
怎么寻找这些预兆的信号呢，很简单，不断的研究，研究，再研究。你不需要找到所有的大趋势和大热门，只需要找到一个就能让你盈利颇丰了，如果能在正确的时间投入足够的钱，你就不用担心下半辈子了。
Other than spotting the trend and your own strategy... find your strengths and weaknesses... What impacts your judgement the most? For example, I try to invest in stocks where I personally se multi bagger potential... But I realised that waiting for those multi bag gains I quite often lose short term gains in the similar stock... and while I try to gather these short term opportunities, I over do it and let go my actual goal... So after heaps of experiments and analysis of my own trading patterns I now trade based on % and parcels... For example, if I buy something and it shoots within days I lock in gains rather than waiting for multi bags... however, if something runs smoothly< I just hang in... let the runners run I guess... Secondly, I now hold real short term, short term and medium term parcels for the stocks I think can do multi bags...
除了寻找趋势和热门，分析自己的优点和缺点。什么情况对你的判断力影响最大？比如说，作者一般会投资自己认为会增长很多倍的股票，但是在等待自己股票翻倍的过程中，却会常常错过其它类似公司的短期盈利机会，而当作者去追求这些观其盈利的机会时，却会错过自己本来看好能翻很多倍的股票。所以经过很多实验和分析作者本身的交易规律，作者现在根据盈率比率和仓位大小来交易。比如，当作者买入一支股票后，有了不错的短期盈利，就会锁定利润而不是等它翻倍。但是如过股票平稳上涨，作者就会继续持股，让盈利增长。然后，对于自己认为能够翻多倍的股，就会建几个仓，包括超短线仓，短线仓和中线仓。
On top of this, I have established criteria's for minows, small caps, medium caps and I rarely invest in Large caps not even in my super...Simply, the larger the market cap is the harder it becomes to analyse the stock and its possible potential.... So I stick to basic with minows and small caps... though I prefer the liquid ones for my large holdings... Liquid only for entry not for exit... exit is normally based on news flow and then there is heaps of volume at times 50m plus for days which is more than sufficient to exit...
同时，作者对微型股，小型股和中型股都设定了不同的选股标准。作者很少投资大盘股，因为一支股票的盘子越大，越难分析它的潜力，所以作者偏好微型和小型股，当然要建重仓的股需要很好的流通性，主要因为要建仓，出货一般会等重大公告和新闻，那时交易量放大出货就很容易了。
From here onwards I check the following:
1. Number of shares on issue... Love it when they have less than 300m with liquidity...
2. Market cap and that is fully diluted... means options, debts, con notes cash all included... the smaller the market cap the better it is...
3. Cash burn rate on admin... this helps me to spot the life style companies... If the cash burn rate is low, it means less dilution over time...
4. Cash position... If the sector is not hot the stock must have heaps of cash... if the sector is hot, they will able to raise cash with minimum dilution... even if there is dilution share price will have less impact... most of the times cap raise in the right sector pumps the stock higher within days to weeks so all good...
5. Directors / management (does not apply to shells... In shells this is the first thing I check)... Have they done good previously... previously means recently like 6 months to 2 years... anything before, it does not bother me much...
6. Managements own position... how much shares they hold... and that is based on their capital not free shares etc... I realised over the years if the management has their own skin in the game they try harder... Not always, but most of the times...
7. Top 20... good to know but I normally think the only safe shares are the ones held by sub holders as they cant sell them without disclosing.... the rest of the t20, they can buy or sell any time like all of us...
there are other things, but if the above do exist I take a position...
然后作者选股的几点：
1.股本总量，少于3亿股而流动性强为好。
2.市值，包括所有期权债务等等，市值越低越好。
3.公司日常管理支出，看这家公司管理层的花钱方式，如果花钱很谨慎，那增发稀释股权就会很少。
4。现金流，如果股票所在的板块不是热门，那它们就要保留很多现金。如果板块很热门，那增发筹钱会很容易，稀释也会很少，而且增发对股价影响也不大，很多时候热门板块的股增发后股价还会继续上升。
5.管理层，（空壳公司不适用，空壳公司第一要看的就是管理层）看管理层近2年内有什么好的成绩。
6.管理层本身持股，而且要看他们出钱买的股而不是公司发的免费股。一般来说管理层自己投钱进去对公司的运作会更上心，并不是总是这样，但大部分时候都是这样。
7，前20的大股东，作者认为真正重要的是超过5% 的持股人，这些持股人如果卖股就需要上报到ASX，剩下的前20就没有那么重要，因为他们随时都可以买卖而不需要上报。
还有其它几个选股的标准，但是如果以上几点符合，作者就会买入。
Position size.... can be 1 to 5k... these are when I am not 100% sure... and I want to see the trend on daily basis... So I take a small position for two reasons:
1. If the stock make gains my research I not completely wasted and I still got something out of it.
2. I watch it on daily basis... it helps keeping an eye on announcements, volume and trading pattern.
仓位，如果不能100%确定，一般买入小仓位，然后观察每日的趋势变化，这样做有两个原因，
1.如果股票上升，作者的研究就不会白费，至少能有一些获利，
2.每日观察，可以关注公告，成交量和交易形态等。
When it comes to large holding, I normally hold 2-5 stocks at a time... Now many would say, you should not buy more than 5% of your portfolio in one stock... I would say that's their strategy... I personally take a large position and need one of them to be a goer... Also realised if I follow the above criteria and avoid stocks with heaps of shares and debt / con notes, my bad trades make 20-30% capital loss while my winners do somewhere between 30-500% gains... So at the end of the day, I do fine IMO...
当作者建重仓的时后，一般只建2到5只股的仓，虽然很多人说一股不应该超过你总资本的5%，但是作者个人的策略是建重仓，然后希望其中一支股能大涨。然后如果作者遵循他自己的选股条件，避免股票总量过多的股票或者债务缠身的股票，作者失败的交易可能亏损20到30%，但是成功的交易可以达到30到500%。所以最终作者能取得不错的盈利。

个人点评：
建立自己的交易策略很重要了。
还有就是重仓几支股，而不要太分散，我是很赞同的。Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard也说过，如果太分散了，很多时候会发现你无法专注股票的动向，那还不如买指数好了。

最后是FullMoonFever提供的
ASXiq provides various inbuilt scans for TA as well as useful FA info such as PE, PEG, EV etc (subs req'd) , the merits of which have been discussed already but one free section I like is the filter by sector or industry ranking that I can use to see % gain over 1 day or week or mth & vol for example that prompts me to then look at the chart and then also the poss FA behind the movement. Can have it's own little glitches occasionally - like Co. name not updated eg. RSL to SRT.
http://asxiq.com/end-of-day-screener/end-of-day/1/
ASXiq有自定义的选股扫描器，还可以看板块或行业里股票动向。
Investogain has various Co. info in one spot when looking but also the quick filter listing of the last 20 buys / sells list for Directors for "all" or "over 100k", I find again, is a handy trigger to then look at why they may be doing so.
http://www.investogain.com.au/directors-transactions
Investogain则提供最近的管理层增持和减持的动向。

yongqianyin0322

tm_mingtan 发表于 2016-3-26 23:36
继续翻译一部分：
Sector Lead关于PEG ratios市盈率-成长比率

你的所有帖子都是精品！佩服像你这样言之有物的高手。

本来想写一段评论然后再提几个问题讨论一下的，不过现在在飞回国的途中，等回来一定会上HC把这个帖子挖出来好好读几遍。


另外非常同意作者的重仓5支以下股票的建议。太多了真的做不过来，就算有订阅很多的report然后省去一些自己做research的时间，5支以上也是不划算的。很多时候买点稍纵即逝，也有时候发生黑天鹅事件来不及跑 （我之前2月份的BGA就是这种例子，当时大概portfolio里面有10支股）。

而且做5支以下，会让自己在FA上集中投入更多的精力，因为要从可能10+支非常appealing的股中选择出5支，就需要反复对比筛选，翻来覆去思考。这是一下把10支都收入自己portfolio的人做不到的。

yongqianyin0322

Share一下我的portfolio和仓位好了, 希望能在接下来的几个月里成功减掉4支股票。

1PG 15%
AVL  10%
BFC  3%
BSR  10%
EDE  12%
IFN  3%
IVO   3%
OEL  5%
PEH  10%
RAD  15%
TGS  14%

现在看着眼红的股：
G8C
TFC
WLD
SHV
PDN
POS
VIT
BBOZ
IXR
GXY
。。。。。。

现在大概一半的子弹都攥在手里呢，但是真的不该再添新股了。

tu2011

yongqianyin0322 发表于 2016-3-27 00:28
Share一下我的portfolio和仓位好了, 希望能在接下来的几个月里成功减掉4支股票。

1PG 15%

最近想进点wld，但是发现它的流动性太差，不敢下手

Raymondukelee

yongqianyin0322 发表于 2016-3-26 23:28
Share一下我的portfolio和仓位好了, 希望能在接下来的几个月里成功减掉4支股票。

1PG 15%

有无可能血本无归

jli140

tu2011 发表于 2016-3-27 11:25
最近想进点wld，但是发现它的流动性太差，不敢下手

Wld 如果再跌到0.7我就入