我对悉尼房价的看法

tonyju626

2。3％。。。。。：）

黑山老妖

原帖由 philgu 于 2007-8-11 09:27 发表


4.2% CGT 不算啊?

With property, the strategy is to buy and hold. Never sell.

tonyju626

OK,如果把银行利率考虑进去，再假设5倍杠杆，止损点就是6.5/5+2.3=3.6.....

算法是否有误。。。：）

黑山老妖

我的算法：
贷款利息：i=8%
通膨：c=3%
租金：r=4.5%
管理及维护费用：m=2%
个人税率：t = (40+1.5)%
资本增长为：x
depreciation不算。
不包括买卖房的手续和其他费用。

如果房子不卖掉，要打平：x=(i+m+c - r)*(1-t) = (8+2+3-4.5)% * 58.5% = 4.9725%

也就是说如果房子不卖掉，每年的增值达到5%就有的赚了。

tonyju626

折旧为什么不算那，1％的差别还是很大的啊，另外，为何不考虑杠杆那，因为实际投入是20％ of 房子的价值啊。

谢谢

黑山老妖

原帖由 tonyju626 于 2007-8-11 09:54 发表
折旧为什么不算那，1％的差别还是很大的啊，另外，为何不考虑杠杆那，因为实际投入是20％ of 房子的价值啊。
谢谢

老房子的unit一般都已经是87年前的了。没有折旧了。
我的算法已经考虑了杠杆了。算的是100%的贷款啊。

tonyju626

懂得你的计算方法和前提了，谢谢老黑版主：）

黑山老妖

非常重要的一点是税率。如果个人税率是31.5%那么增值就要差不多6%才能赚钱了。
0税率就是8.5%了。

tonyju626

富人的游戏。。。另外还有个问题

多少年的房子价钱掉的最快，我知道总体基本都是上升的，但相对来说是不是全新的房子到手掉的最快的？是怎样一个曲线那

黑山老妖

原帖由 tonyju626 于 2007-8-11 10:22 发表
富人的游戏。。。另外还有个问题
多少年的房子价钱掉的最快，我知道总体基本都是上升的，但相对来说是不是全新的房子到手掉的最快的？是怎样一个曲线那

没有具体的数据不好说。

Consultant

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-8-11 09:39 发表


With property, the strategy is to buy and hold. Never sell.

Fully agree on it!

Consultant

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-8-11 09:48 发表
我的算法：
贷款利息：i=8%
通膨：c=3%
租金：r=4.5%
管理及维护费用：m=2%
个人税率：t = (40+1.5)%
资本增长为：x
depreciation不算。
不包括买卖房的手续和其他费用。

如果房子不卖掉，要打平：x=( ...

按老妖的算法，算了一下自己的投资房，
贷款利息：i=8%
通膨：c=3%
租金：r=5.25% (贷款额度400000，租金420/week，按空租两周记)
管理及维护费用：m=1.4% (rates 1200+ strata 2800+ management fee 1155 + insurance 350)
个人税率：t = (30+1.5)%
depreciation: d=2.5%（该房全新，内部外部折旧第一年约12000左右）
资本增长为：x


如果房子不卖掉，要打平：x=(i+m+c - r-d)*(1-t) = (8+1.4+3-5.25-2.5)% * 68.5% = 3.52775%
不知是否有误？

[ 本帖最后由 Consultant 于 2007-8-11 11:44 编辑 ]

黑山老妖

原帖由 Consultant 于 2007-8-11 11:16 发表


按老妖的算法，算了一下自己的投资房，
贷款利息：i=8%
通膨：c=3%
租金：r=5.25% (贷款额度400000，租金420/week，按空租两周记)
管理及维护费用：m=1.4% (rates 1200+ strata 2800+ management fee 115 ...

没错。你是不是100%贷款的呢？

Consultant

原帖由 philgu 于 2007-8-10 23:31 发表


个人认为任何投资都是个时机问题而不是时间问题, 一年回报8%只能保本.
2003年买的房到场2013年升50%那是巨赔了.

个人认为如果您把房产投资作为一项中长线的投资来看，时间的问题要大于时机的问题，无轮您从哪个切入点进入，如果看十年，甚至二十年，您也应该是稳赚不赔的。假设您买房的时候比我买的时候便宜了10%，10年后如果他们都double他们的value，我赚了100%，您赚了120%，不错您的投资比我成功，但是我也没什么可遗憾的。但是您能够恰到好处的买到那出为您带来120%利润的房产么？房产我认为也是一种资源，您买走了，我也就不能再在同样的位置买到同样的房产了。不知您是否同意？

另外您的房产，也不用卖掉来体现它的价值，到适当的时候去做refinance，自然您就从中得到相应的利润。

Consultant

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-8-11 11:19 发表


没错。你是不是100%贷款的呢？

97%贷款。现在很难做到100%贷款了，银行很紧现在。

小溪

我们外行是不是可以简单理解为,房价涨一段时间后会平稳一段时间.如果在房价平稳一段时间后买房投资,升值需要的时间短,如果在房价疯涨的时候买房投资,同样的升值空间就需要很长的时间,因为中间要经历几年的平稳期.就是大家常说的那个"波".
可是不太好掌握啊.

Consultant

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-8-11 10:13 发表
非常重要的一点是税率。如果个人税率是31.5%那么增值就要差不多6%才能赚钱了。
0税率就是8.5%了。

如果我的算法没有太大的出入，税率很重要，但个人认为同样重要的还有租金回报和折旧（尤其是开始的几年）。不知老妖如何认为？

黑山老妖

原帖由 小溪 于 2007-8-11 11:47 发表
我们外行是不是可以简单理解为,房价涨一段时间后会平稳一段时间.如果在房价平稳一段时间后买房投资,升值需要的时间短,如果在房价疯涨的时候买房投资,同样的升值空间就需要很的时间,因为中间要经历几年的平稳期.就 ...

所谓的波就是周期，波是炒股常说的话。

你说得差不多概括了周期的运作了。有时候在上升了一段时间以后房价会下降调整。

如何掌握周期就不好解释了。看个人理解。

黑山老妖

原帖由 Consultant 于 2007-8-11 11:50 发表
如果我的算法没有太大的出入，税率很重要，但个人认为同样重要的还有租金回报和折旧（尤其是开始的几年）。不知老妖如何认为？

我觉得买新房投资虽然得到了depreciation和较高房租，但是你也其实付出了developer cost的premium。新房子还有一个弱点就是全新的房子还没有run-in，有些问题还没有显现出来到时候也可能是一件头痛的事。当然旧房子也会坏，维修费用可能高点。

到底哪个划算就要看个案了。

新房好还是旧房好这个问题可以讨论很久也不会有结果的。其实只要有钱赚就是好的。

philgu

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-8-11 09:39 发表


With property, the strategy is to buy and hold. Never sell.

No, I think you need to move up the ladder all the time. I will always buy better suburbs when I accumulate enough equity in the investment. If you hold and never realise gain, you will have a cashflow problem. Always buy premium asset, that will be my strategy.

Also I think discuss the fine figures in term of the projection is rather deviate from the main point. In my mind, two critical things in buying a property:

1. identify good asset at the right entry time
2. make sure you cashflow is up to it

There is no such an asset you can always hold and not sell- I will call it a lazy asset. Right exit time is more critical than right entry time.

[ 本帖最后由 philgu 于 2007-8-11 12:04 编辑 ]

黑山老妖

原帖由 philgu 于 2007-8-11 11:58 发表

No, I think you need to move up the ladder all the time. I will always buy better suburbs when I accumulate enough equity in the investment. If you hold and never realise gain, you will have a  ...

Instead of buy-sell, buy-sell, you should consider buy-hold buy-hold.
What I mean is you buy first. Hold on to them for equity growth. Use extra equity to acquire more equity. That way you max your leverage without having to put up the extra cost of selling. At the same time you diversify your risk. i.e. Not having all your money bet on one property to perform.

philgu

原帖由 黑山涎齕/i] 于 2007-8-11 12:03 发表


Instead of buy-sell, buy-sell, you should consider buy-hold buy-hold.
What I mean is you buy first. Hold on to them for equity growth. Use extra equity to acquire more equity. That way you max ...

I beg to disagree. I think it is critical to identify the dogs in your portfolio and move on. There is no way you will have all winners in your portfolio - property or any other asset. That is why I think it is important to find and replace with better assets.

One classical example I have taken into heart was my former manager. He sold out his terrace in Glebe and bought into a large house in Northbridge. Both are very good assets, but Northbridge is so much better. Currently it is ranked the among top half of 50 millionaire suburbs in Sydney - median price of $1.6m. With limited resource, sometime you have to concentrate in order to get what you want.

[ 本帖最后由 philgu 于 2007-8-11 12:20 编辑 ]

Consultant

原帖由 philgu 于 2007-8-11 12:07 发表


I beg to disagree. I think it is critical to identify the dogs in your portfolio and move on. There is no way you will have all winners in your portfolio - property or any other asset. That is  ...

As a normal investor, we have no enough knowledge, no time, or no accurate market info to identify and pick-up the property, which will get premium asset for you. What I though is a  lazy asset may be more suitable for normals.

黑山老妖

原帖由 philgu 于 2007-8-11 12:07 发表
I beg to disagree. I think it is critical to identify the dogs in your portfolio and move on. There is no way you will have all winners in your portfolio - property or any other asset. That is  ...

Hmmm, I think you have misunderstood me.

At the time of purchase, you would have done your homework to at least satisfy yourself that what you are buying is a good asset right? So unless something dramatic happens it would remain a good asset. So why would you sell?

What I meant was sell for the sake of selling is not wise. Buy and hold.

I do not fully agree with your idea of swapping one for another. I would keep the good one and use the capital growth you already have to get the better one. Presumably your previous one was good to give you some capital growth.

Buy and sell is a very costly thing to do for properties. Then there is also CGT... And if you think you are moving PPOR only with no CGT, think about all the trouble you and your family has to go through every time you buy a new one. The emotional and social complications will be hard. What about when you have kids?

philgu

???Consultant 于 2007-8-11 12:19 发表



As a normal investor, we have no enough knowledge, no time, or no accurate market info to identify and pick-up the property, which will get premium asset for you. What I though is a  lazy ass ...

Sure. Everyone has different styles.
To buy our first home, we waited / did the research for more than 3 yrs on and off. So I am confident I made the right choice. Patience is the virtue. I only buy when I think it is good value.

夢回唐朝

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-8-11 09:48 发表
我的算法：
贷款利息：i=8%
通膨：c=3%
租金：r=4.5%
管理及维护费用：m=2%
个人税率：t = (40+1.5)%
资本增长为：x
depreciation不算。
不包括买卖房的手续和其他费用。

如果房子不卖掉，要打平：x=(i+m+c - r)*(1-t) = (8+2+3-4.5)% * 58.5% = 4.9725%

也就是说如果房子不卖掉，每年的增值达到5%就有的赚了。

理解了你的算法，但结论有点疑惑，也就是说你的算法是建立在‘房子不卖掉’的条件下的，有点不明白，房子不卖掉怎么赚钱呢？如果卖掉又该如何算呢？

philgu

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-8-11 12:31 发表


Hmmm, I think you have misunderstood me.

At the time of purchase, you would have done your homework to at least satisfy yourself that what you are buying is a good asset right? So unless som ...

I think from my experience if my purchase decision is 60% on the mark, I should be a very very rich man.
So I think invariably a lot of the bought assets are dogs albeit with best intentions and meticulous work done.
PPOR is probably one of kind in term of asset class - you can both enjoy and realise CGT free profit. So when time is right, why not move on to better things (better for the family and better for the hip pocket as well).

黑山老妖

原帖由 philgu 于 2007-8-11 12:40 发表
I think from my experience if my purchase decision is 60% on the mark, I should be a very very rich man.
So I think invariably a lot of the bought assets are dogs albeit with best intentions a ...

Buy and sell does not mean holding onto the perpetual dog. Rather it's a mentality of hold onto the winning cards.
Holding onto the good ones and add more good/better ones is the strategy I think that will work over long term. Trying to differentiate investing with trading here.

Family home is certainly an interesting asset. I would move when appropriate but I would not use family home as investment and move around once every 2-3 years.

黑山老妖

原帖由 jaywang714 于 2007-8-11 12:37 发表
理解了你的算法，但结论有点疑惑，也就是说你的算法是建立在‘房子不卖掉’的条件下的，有点不明白，房子不卖掉怎么赚钱呢？如果卖掉又该如何算呢？

请看房地产三部曲之二：房地产投资 - 之二：投资房

philgu

刚从BOBIN HEAD ROAD 路过, 看到一个新的DUPLEX OPEN INSPECTION, 就进去看了下.
不问不知道, 一问吓一跳. 3房DUPLEX, 250SQM 地, 要价94W. 两房 84W.
把LD 和俺都笑倒.