英国首相表示“自愿联盟”将向美国提交乌克兰和平计划

gegewu

xq052b 发表于 2025-3-3 15:57
一码归一码，大毛有没有从欧盟那里拿到钱来支持这场战争？

答案是yes，这是事实

能源依赖不是一朝一夕能掉头的，北溪（管道）天然气的成本和供应效率，和LNG能一样吗？这些都是经过了几十年的铺排。说欧洲长期对俄罗斯能源的依赖等于绥靖，说在能源方面每个国家都打着自己的小算盘，这可以，但指责他们为什么没有cut spending全部找美国买，就不厚道了，俄乌开战后欧洲是有改变能源进口的来源的，也已经为此支付了更贵的价格。欧洲美国不一样，美国和美国都是能源大国，欧洲没有这个资本。

xq052b

gegewu 发表于 2025-3-3 16:08
能源依赖不是一朝一夕能掉头的，北溪（管道）天然气的成本和供应效率，和LNG能一样吗？这些都是经过了几 ...

这么说吧，如果今天欧盟对俄宣战，大毛切断天然气供应

欧盟就没电了？还是会冻死

都不会发生

欧盟到现在还在给俄输血，说到底就是舍不得便宜能源

ninegumtrees

二战结束后，欧洲的军事发展一直受到美国的制约。不能全部责怪欧洲国家不愿发展自己的军事力量，美国一直在制约着。现在美国要撒手不管了，欧洲需要一点时间来发展的。法国其实一直在主张欧洲自主的，一直被美国打压。

ninegumtrees

特朗普现在要退出，欧洲一时还没有反应过来，看吧，也许这就是十字路口。欧洲以后就必须军事自主了

gegewu

xq052b 发表于 2025-3-3 16:12
这么说吧，如果今天欧盟对俄宣战，大毛切断天然气供应

欧盟就没电了？还是会冻死

我看了一下数字，俄乌开战后欧美和俄罗斯的贸易已经大幅下降了，包括能源。德国天然气原来严重依赖俄罗斯，现在第一进口来源国是挪威

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/st ... latest_developments

我觉得说欧盟向俄罗斯输血，是不公正的

从另一个角度说，俄罗斯是能源大国，全球的能源市场是不能少了他那一块的，他不缺市场。

FireRain

"斯塔默周六对明显受到惊吓的泽连斯基表示欢迎，并给了他一个热情的拥抱"，然后把自家武器库存卖给了乌克兰，含泪赚了二十亿？

sky20000

意思不大，波兰的总理图斯克座轮椅来开会，他说：5亿欧洲人，要求3亿人的美国保护，免被1.4亿俄罗斯人侵略，现在4000万乌克兰人正在底抗，……

john-2204

发现足迹上不少网友，可能是需要工作，上班的原因，但又忍不住要发表意见．．

很多是只看标题发表看法，不仔细看看文章中的详细内容．．

cathyqk

Perth好 发表于 2025-3-3 09:34
俄罗斯不会遵守任何协议

俄罗斯历史上遵守了很多协议。按违反率不比英美高。不能仅就这一次入侵乌克兰质疑它在特朗普担保下的履约诚意。

mazda333

Perth好 发表于 2025-3-3 09:34
俄罗斯不会遵守任何协议

乌克兰应该请你去做司机的位置，看你还敢不敢嘴硬

红蝴蝶

xq052b 发表于 2025-3-3 14:43
1. 大毛2024年贸易顺差1509亿美元
2. 大毛跟欧洲2023-2024年双边贸易大概是每年3400亿美元
3. 大毛跟天朝 ...

按照这个数字来看， 再打几年战争，出现人们期待的恶俄经济崩溃，也是不现实。 真应验老川说法，打不赢，司机是在拿自己国家几百万人生命赌，挑动三战。

xq052b

红蝴蝶 发表于 2025-3-3 17:41
按照这个数字来看， 再打几年战争，出现人们期待的恶俄经济崩溃，也是不现实。 真应验老川说法，打不赢， ...

最阴险的就是这些欧盟的政客

道德的制高点是要的，“不惜一切代价支持乌克兰”

为了选票，俄国的便宜能源也是要的

代价就是每天成百上千死去的乌克兰人

红蝴蝶

xq052b 发表于 2025-3-3 17:46
最阴险的就是这些欧盟的政客

道德的制高点是要的，“不惜一切代价支持乌克兰”

可以看出来，现任英国首相就是你说的这类政客。

xq052b

红蝴蝶 发表于 2025-3-3 17:52
可以看出来，现任英国首相就是你说的这类政客。

yes, minister
yes, prime minister

真是神剧，把政治说透了

cathyqk

xq052b 发表于 2025-3-3 13:43
1. 大毛2024年贸易顺差1509亿美元
2. 大毛跟欧洲2023-2024年双边贸易大概是每年3400亿美元
3. 大毛跟天朝 ...

欧盟和俄罗斯贸易额 $9.6 billion in February 2023
                                 $6.5 billion February 2024
                                $ 6.2 billion September 2024
怎么可能“大毛跟欧洲2023-2024年双边贸易大概是每年3400亿美元”？
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/ ... istoric-low/3406224

xq052b

cathyqk 发表于 2025-3-3 17:57
欧盟和俄罗斯贸易额 $9.6 billion in February 2023
                                 $6.5 billion February 2024
                         ...

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpbl ... upport-for-ukraine/

The EU has implemented a series of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Yet as Ousmène Jacques Mandeng argues, the EU’s response to the war has been undermined by the level of trade many EU states continue to do with Russia.

The European Union has launched a series of measures to contain Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Yet, the effectiveness and extent of these measures remain in doubt.

The EU has a cumulative merchandise trade deficit with Russia of US$120 billion since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine or 5 percent of Russia’s annual GDP. This net transfer of resources to Russia is in stark contrast to the EU’s rhetoric, which claims that it will “remain determined to keep acting to further reduce Russia’s sources of revenue and capacity to wage war”. The EU’s approach to Russia is self-defeating and risks prolonging the war.

Why trade balance matters
Trade balance is a measure of the transfer of net resources from one country to another. The greater the deficit vis-à-vis one country, think of the US-China trade deficit disputes, the more the deficit country transfers resources to its trading partner.

While Russia’s foreign exchange reserves had been frozen in March 2022, the cumulative net transfer from the EU has allowed Russia to rebuild a large proportion of foreign financial resources. International banks show an increase in cross-border liabilities vis-à-vis residents of Russia from US$155 billion in March 2022 to US$254 billion in March 2024. This may also explain why Russia’s economy has been doing relatively well.

The EU’s trade deficit with Russia has been declining since March 2022, but it took unduly long and EU member countries’ efforts differ significantly. It took one year to decline from a post-pandemic peak deficit of US$19.5 billion in March 2022 to a surplus of US$0.7 billion in March 2023. In January-May 2024, the average trade deficit with Russia of Hungary was still US$0.3 billion and of Slovakia US$0.4 billion per month.

Explaining the trade deficit
The EU’s trade deficit with Russia is largely due to its persistent mineral fuel imports. EU cumulative mineral fuel imports from Russia since March 2022 through May 2024 amount to US$166 billion. They fell from an average of US$10.6 billion per month during January-May 2019 to US$2.0 billion per month or 19 percent of their pre-war level.

Yet, the decline is not universal. Belgium still imports 54 percent of its pre-war level, Spain 58 percent, the Czech Republic 77 percent, Slovakia 88 percent and Hungary 138 percent. In contrast, Germany imports only 1 percent of its pre-war level.

Russian gas still enjoys high imports at 83 percent of pre-war levels. In January-May 2024, Belgium and the Netherlands were importing more than two times more Russian gas than prior to the war and Spain seven times. Hungary, the largest importer of Russian gas in the EU, imported nearly double the amount in January-May 2024 compared with January-May 2019.

Recent observations that India has ramped up mineral fuel imports from Russia have been met with considerable concern. India indeed increased mineral fuel imports from Russia during January and May 2019 from an average of US$0.3 billion per month to US$3.9 billion per month during January and May 2024.

A contradictory approach

The EU’s stance vis-à-vis Russia contradicts its ambitions. Blaming India for financing Russia through mineral fuel imports is the right thing to do. It serves as a reminder how important it is to curtail imports from Russia.

Maintaining stable levels of imports amid possible structural constraints related to pipeline and refinery layouts is one thing but ramping up imports is quite another. To argue that changing existing dependencies from Russia would be too costly is to underestimate greatly the enormous humanitarian and economic costs of war.

The EU’s piece-meal approach – the EU is on its 14th sanction package against Russia – has endowed Russia with significant sources of revenue it can use to continue fighting the war. The EU demands its citizens provide resources to support Ukraine on the one hand while it continues to tolerate huge net transfers to Russia on the other hand.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU claims to have supported Ukraine through financial and military assistance with US$121 billion. During that period, the EU has cumulated a trade deficit with Russia of the same amount. This cannot possibly be a sensible approach to support Ukraine and reduce Russia’s capacity to wage war.

cathyqk

xq052b 发表于 2025-3-3 17:37
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2024/10/09/the-eus-continued-trade-with-russia-undermines-its-s ...

这里面哪有欧盟俄罗斯3400亿贸易额的数字？

xq052b

gegewu 发表于 2025-3-3 17:11
我看了一下数字，俄乌开战后欧美和俄罗斯的贸易已经大幅下降了，包括能源。德国天然气原来严重依赖俄罗斯 ...

我楼下贴的那篇文章分析了

大体来说，能源的需求是不变的，大毛的能源通过第三国流入了欧洲

amyo(∩_∩)o

xq052b 发表于 2025-3-3 22:07
我楼下贴的那篇文章分析了

大体来说，能源的需求是不变的，大毛的能源通过第三国流入了欧洲

所以欧盟制裁俄罗斯能源，就和中国制裁澳洲铁矿石一样。其实制裁的是自己。东西通过转手又回到欧洲。但是钱多花了。

除非中国，印度和土耳其配合。否则这种制裁没有任何意义。欧洲多花了钱，俄罗斯没少挣钱。钱都让美国，印度和土耳其赚去了。

woodywup

FireRain 发表于 2025-3-3 17:21
"斯塔默周六对明显受到惊吓的泽连斯基表示欢迎，并给了他一个热情的拥抱"，然后把自家武器库存卖给了乌克兰 ...

还不是库存现货，是要投资自家厂生产的

红蝴蝶

woodywup 发表于 2025-3-3 22:26
还不是库存现货，是要投资自家厂生产的

英国不是趁火打劫吗？ 口中说支持正义乌克兰，其实是在做生意呢。难怪他们不愿意停火，可怜的乌克兰平民。

FireRain

woodywup 发表于 2025-3-3 22:26
还不是库存现货，是要投资自家厂生产的

英国去年七月刚同 thales签了价值227 million 的合同，由thales 生产 martlet missile，供给乌克兰，俄乌一旦停战，英国的投资就要泡汤，此时不趁小泽失意，拥抱小泽，含泪赚他二十亿，以后就没机会了

sayaaz

happyheros 发表于 2025-3-3 10:56
欧洲可不可以把脊梁骨挺直了，不要再依赖美国了。

欧洲有张嘴，上嘴唇顶着天，下嘴唇顶着地。

sayaaz

xq052b 发表于 2025-3-3 17:56
yes, minister
yes, prime minister

笑死我了，瞬间时光穿梭，想起了20多年前一个马来西亚客户说的他在中国投资的遭遇，当地市长拍着胸脯跟他说来投资没问题，天大的事我给你摆平。后来真碰上事了，结果市长不管，答复他“确实天大的事儿我给你摆平，不过你这事儿比天还大。。。‘ 。