澳股和经济趋势小谈

xiaoche

原帖由 不会游泳的鱼 于 2009-2-27 11:38 发表
偶看奧巴馬也是混日子，對這次經濟危機缺乏系統的挽救措施，頂多能延遲經濟崩潰的時間。

这位就是中了马克思政治经济学毒的典型例子.

jlhan

Really hope the market can drop more so that I can buy some, such as BHP, ANZ, LYC, ... ... But it looks not going to happen today.

piaopiaoci

原帖由 jlhan 于 2011-3-15 09:57 发表
Really hope the market can drop more so that I can buy some, such as BHP, ANZ, LYC, ... ... But it looks not going to happen today.

IT has happened.

Explorer

原帖由 jlhan 于 2011-3-15 09:57 发表
Really hope the market can drop more so that I can buy some, such as BHP, ANZ, LYC, ... ... But it looks not going to happen today.

jlhan

原帖由 piaopiaoci 于 2011-3-15 21:03 发表



IT has happened.

True.  Japan's nuclear problem really spooked the market.  I still hope to buy a little cheaper.

jlhan

Each stock is different.  ANZ and MQG look OK to enter now.  

BHP is a gamble on China and India keeping going for sometime.  BHP made a lot money and its cash flow is good too.  

LYC is a play on rare earth mining.  I really hope that it falls to $1.65.  We will see in the next few days.

jlhan

近来大家对经济状况可能比较关心。美国刚经过债务危机；美国股票市场也十分动荡。华夏快递最近有陈向阳一篇关于美国国债文章【1】。这篇文章有几点不错，例如17世纪各国借债效果。但是文章认为美国政府可以随意增发钞票是大有偏差。美国政府的通货发行是有法律限制的；联邦储备的行动要对国会负责。而且美国政府如果乱印钞票会对美国经济有很大损害。Samuelson 和Nordhaus的经济学经典教科书中有关于财政赤字和国债的讨论【2】。它提到经济学家对国债有三种极不相同的看法。（1）有人认为国债对后代有沉重负担。（2）有人说没有证据说明政府赤字对利率和投资有任何影响。（3）还有人认为赤字对经济有好处，特别是在衰退的时候。书中对国家赤字和债务有相当全面的分析，而且并不难懂。当然这是在这本书的最后一章，如具有前面章节的知识对书中的分析会有比较深刻的了解。

奥巴马在外交方面政绩不错，基本上是中间路线。但是他的经济政策左了一些。虽然经济大环境使美国税收减少，但是奥巴马仍然加大开支，造成现在这样的困境。注意现在美国国债增长速度大大超过以前各届政府。当然现在共和党也没有好的候选人。所以这届总统大选还很难说。

中国政府持有美国大量国债。这次债务危机以后中国政府可能会分散投资。不过从另一方面看，中国政府也没有很多很好的选择。中国曾经在GFC前试过对冲基金，恐怕失的多收的少。中国政府可能会减少继续购买美国债券，但是不太会大量抛售美国债券。

最近我看到一篇关于中国经济的有趣报道【3】。诺贝尔经济奖获得者M. Spencer对中国非常看好，认为中国还可以持续高速发展多年。我对他的看法有些疑问。M. Spencer是搞微观经济学的，预测经济周期是宏观经济学的范畴。而且不论对美国还是对中国，要预测经济周期是基本上不可能的。注意Spencer曾是中国政府顾问，他有利益在里面。相比较之下，陈志武的分析【4】比较靠谱。

现在讨论投资股票的问题。我以前写过几篇与经济分析和投资股票有关的文章【5-7】。读者应该懂得这些文章，特别是【5】。现在我要警告读者，除非你有相当的投资经验同时有相当长的投资周期，否则建议你不要继续往下读。多数人只要懂得Index投资就够了。

从我以前的分析，你应该知道投资有排列组合多的方法。我的方法是建立在【8-10】之上的。我已经讲过【8,9】。【10】介绍了Cash Flow, Inventory Management等。另外，投资者应该至少读一本关于Warren  Buffett的投资策略的书，例如【11】。我的投资策略是买产值和利润增长较快的又比较便宜的股票。另外重要一点是趁股票市场大跌的时候买进。这里主要技巧是估计股票市场的低点。上次GFC，我对股票市场的低点基本上估计不错。顺便提一点，上次过了GFC的低点后Paul Krugman还在叫嚣更惨的在后面呢。我在想你Paul Krugman预测经济危机还是能力有限吧。现在来看这一次。首先这一次与上一次不一样。其次如果欧洲有一个国家国债违约了，特别是如果意大利有麻烦了，股票市场还会猛跌。我的策略是现在买一些，例如上周五我就买了一些。另外我留些购买力看是否有更好的机会。最后我觉得Jim Cramer的一本书【12】可以参考。虽然我不是完全同意Cramer的方法，他的有些点，例如股票市场是由少数大基金左右的，有相当价值。

注释：
【1】 陈向阳：美国国债真的该到顶了
http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=29607
【2】 Paul A. Samuelson and William D. Nordhaus, "Economics", McGraw-Hill, Irwin, c2005 18th ed. pp.709-717.
【3】 China: it's full speed ahead
http://www.smh.com.au/business/c ... .html#ixzz1U7EJzSTd
【4】 国进民退是中国持久繁荣的最大障碍
http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=28340
【5】 韩家亮：次贷危机和投资浅谈
http://han-jialiang.hxwk.org/201 ... %E6%B5%85%E8%B0%88/
http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=20909
【6】 韩家亮：关于当前经济危机的几点看法
http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=21547
【7】 韩家亮：经济速评（一）
http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=23555
【8】 Jeremy J. Siegel, "Stocks for the Long Run," 4th Ed. 2007.  
【9】 Burton G. Malkiel, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing," 9th Ed.  2007
【10】 David and Tom Gardner, "The Motley Fool Investment Guide," Fireside; Rev Exp edition, 2001
【11】 "The Warren Buffett Way," Robert G. Hagstrom Jr.
【12】 James J. Cramer (Author), Cliff Mason (Contributor) , "Jim Cramer's Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," Simon & Schuster, 2006.

jlhan

http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=383147

jlhan

Check my blog to see my holdings.

jlhan

Wish to buy WBC today.  Unfortunately, it goes up.  I wait to get some around $19.

jlhan

Big drop in the US.  Hope the same in AU.  Hope for LYC, IDL, WBC, maybe even BHP.

ToughBubble

thanks for sharing

linkspeed

>每星期读一读Businessweek 的经济专

Businessweek 好像是双月刊啊，一年发6本

aus2005

Businessweek 应该是2周或1周刊，我以前收到过，很频繁的。绝对不是1年6本。

linkspeed

arh, 看错了，6个月30本，我看成1年6本。

jlhan

原帖由 linkspeed 于 2011-9-1 16:51 发表
arh, 看错了，6个月30本，我看成1年6本。

It should be weekly.  You should be able to read it online now.  

I bought LYC, IDL at the low and will hold them a bit longer.  I was not able to buy BHP (set too low).

[ 本帖最后由 jlhan 于 2011-9-25 17:14 编辑 ]

jlhan

I was asked some questions about the market.  I think it is better to post an estimate of current economic and market situation so that many can benefit.  

Is the market hit the bottom?  Probably not.  The main uncertainties are two things: (1) Europe dept crisis (2) Possibility of US recession.  Europe debt problem is not just limited to Greek, there are Ireland, Spain, and even Italy.  These are hard to predict and very much depend on how these governments react.  US economic outlook is also cloudy.  Yes, the market has dropped a lot.  However, it may drop more if things go badly.  Is it possible to go up from now?  Maybe, but it is unlikely to rise up quickly.  

If you want to buy stocks, the big 4 banks are pretty safe bet.  These are well managed, pay about 7% dividends.  Counting tax benefits, return is about 10%.  You cannot get such return with safety anywhere.  

For BHP and RIO, a word of caution.  Their stocks are not expensive but not too cheap either.  The key to them is China, and to a lesser extent, India.  If China slows, their stock prices could drop very fast.  I have some BHP and are paying close attention to the news.  

LYC is a stock of speculation.  I have a small portion because of rare earth minerals.  It is hard to evaluate such a stock and many things could change the evaluation of this stock.  If you do not mind speculation, you may put a small portion of your portfolio (maybe 2%) into it.

hornsay

Thanks for sharing.

个人觉得，从基本面来讲，股市要上涨还是要看实体经济是否好转，或者是否有好的解决方案。但目前来说这些条件都没有。

短期上涨可能会有发放欧债或QE3来引发。

lazysnail

美国政府已经改变策略了。。不出QE3了。。。我现在还是不知道欧洲会怎样。。四大银行和Woolworth都没怎么跌啊。。现在买吗？

jlhan

原帖由 hornsay 于 2011-9-25 15:05 发表
个人觉得，从基本面来讲，股市要上涨还是要看实体经济是否好转，或者是否有好的解决方案。但目前来说这些条件都没有。

AU economy is not bad.  However, for BHP,RIO it is China that I worry.  Consecutive index readings show contraction.

短期上涨可能会有发放欧债或QE3来引发。

Maybe.  QE3 is unlikely.  US budget impasse is a danger.

Anyway, one probably may not earn quick profit.

jlhan

原帖由 lazysnail 于 2011-9-25 15:53 发表
我现在还是不知道欧洲会怎样。。四大银行和Woolworth都没怎么跌啊。。现在买吗？

I cannot type Chinese because of the browser.  Hope English is OK.  

No one knows Europe.  Big 4 banks are OK now.  One possibility is to use limit purchase.  Thus, you may buy low when the market drops.  

I am cautious on Woolworth.  Coles (West Farmer) gives them tough competitions.  It may take them a few years to change.  Others you may consider IDL.AX, SRX.AX.  Do not put too much money into these because of higher risk.

lazysnail

英文可以看。。不过这年头的微软都支持中文输入吧。。你要改版了

我看了下IDL..现在价格也不算很低吧。。几年图的话。。。srx倒真是跌很惨。。。为什么呢？他们的生物科技出问题了？

jlhan

原帖由 lazysnail 于 2011-9-25 17:24 发表
英文可以看。。不过这年头的微软都支持中文输入吧。。你要改版了

我看了下IDL..现在价格也不算很低吧。。几年图的话。。。srx倒真是跌很惨。。。为什么呢？他们的生物科技出问题了？

I downloaded Sogo.  Somehow it does not work anymore.  

If you look fundamentals, IDL is not too expensive, PE etc.  You probably look at technical and charts.

I found no news of SRX.  Perhaps because other stocks have dropped while it had not until recently.  It still is not cheap according to PE but its growth is quite good.

hornsay

don't need sogo.

现在windows都已经support Chinese input.

go to control panel/regional and language option/keyboard and languages/change keyboards, click Add button,

To switch Chinese and English, use ALT+SHIFT.

BTW, QE3不太可能，前阵子有报道的QE2.5，其实就是现在的卖段债，买长债。

欧洲方面可能是发欧债，但最后还是要取决于德国，我个人觉得可能性还是有的，你美国可以印钱，我们为什么不可以发债，最后倒霉的还是中国。这些都会引发段期的反弹。

也有观点说股市本身是在自己做调节，所以许多政策也好，传说也好只是一个导火线。

jlhan

原帖由 hornsay 于 2011-9-25 21:20 发表
don't need sogo.

现在windows都已经support Chinese input.

go to control panel/regional and language option/keyboard and languages/change keyboards, click Add button,

To switch Chinese and English,  ...

Thanks.  I really like SOGO.  My Window is XP and its Chinese support is pretty crap.  I might re-download again for another try.  

About Europe, I do not think that German people would agree to pay large money to support Greek.  Then, there are Ireland, Spain and Italy.  All in all, this time is different from GFC.  The market may go up since it has fallen a lot, especially for Australia since it has pretty good economy.  But it is likely to be a grind out process rather than a quick rebound.  

Besides Europe, China needs a close watch.  If China has a hard landing, then the AU market and economy will have big problems.

hornsay

我其中一台电脑是XP, very good in supporting Chinese input, 你选Chinese pingyin IME 3.0.  不要选双拼之类的。

jlhan

原帖由 hornsay 于 2011-9-25 21:43 发表
我其中一台电脑是XP, very good in supporting Chinese input, 你选Chinese pingyin IME 3.0.  不要选双拼之类的。

谢谢。奇怪你的怎么好用。不过我重装搜狐。现在可以用了。

lazysnail

我还是喜欢GOOGLE PINYIN超级智能

jlhan

在我开始评论以前，先要求任何投资的TX认真读几本书。前面的林克有。下面我再减少到最最基本的3本书。第一本建议必备。如果你要不懂PE，PEG，INDEX投资，accounting, company financial statement, balance sheet， 建议你还是去买INDEX FUND。我以前的帖子有介绍INDEX FUND。

第二，第三本书是投资必读书，但是不必要买。第四本书可以参考。

1) David and Tom Gardner, "The Motley Fool Investment Guide," Fireside; Rev Exp edition, 2001

2) Jeremy J. Siegel, "Stocks for the Long Run," 4th Ed. 2007.  

3) Burton G. Malkiel, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing," 9th Ed.  2007

4）  James J. Cramer (Author), Cliff Mason (Contributor) , "Jim Cramer's Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," Simon & Schuster, 2006.

LYC，SRX，IDL，没有什么实质变化，我保持我的看法。LYC是相当Speculative。前几天跌得原因是稀土元素价格下跌。我决定买的原因是战略上的。LYC是除中国外最大的稀土元素矿业。现在有很多Risk在。所以我只有少量股票。IDL也有Risk。它是矿业服务公司。如果中国Hard Landing，BHP，RIO和其它的矿业公司不振，IDL也危险。在现在，IDL赚钱，从PE来看，股价也不高。

有一个IRI我感兴趣。如果它股价跌倒0.37-38，我会考虑买。

如我前面讲的，澳洲4大银行在现在是最好的投资。其它都有Pro和Con。

lazysnail

你的要求太高了哈哈。。要读那么多本书。。。真正打算长期持有的人才读吧。。中国人还是喜欢做短线的。。。文化差异啊。。。

这年头主要还是感性大过于理性了。。不然澳币也不会跌成这样了。。。基本指标再好也抵不过市场信心。。。做传媒的人去炒股真是要赚死了