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IBM很客气,“第一步只想把大部分医生和律师裁掉” [复制链接]

发表于 2013-6-3 22:40 |显示全部楼层
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内容大意:IBM开始推出人工智能1.0,目标是协助法律和医药行业。因为可以吸纳分析海量数据,还能与人交流,所以基本的工作都可以交给电脑完成。

Trained on Jeopardy, Watson Is Headed for Your Pocket

The software that obliterated human champions on Jeopardy will now be talking to customers of banks and other companies through websites and mobile apps.

By Tom Simonite on May 28, 2013

Watson, the IBM computer system that attracted millions of viewers when it defeated two Jeopardy champions handily in 2011, is finally going to meet its public.

Last week, IBM announced that a version of the artificially intelligent software that gave Watson its smarts is to be rented out to companies as a customer service agent. It will be able to respond to questions posed by people, and sustain a basic conversation by keeping track of context and history if a person asks further questions. An “Ask Watson” button on websites or mobile apps will open a text-based dialogue with the retired Jeopardy champion on topics such as product buying decisions and troubleshooting guidance.

This new version of Watson, somewhat opaquely called “Watson Engagement Advisor,” will be the Jeopardy champ’s first truly public test. Over the past two years, IBM has engaged in several trials of Watson intended to test its worth in the workplace—for example, as an aide to medical staff or financial workers (see “Watson Goes to Work in the Hospital”)—but it has not released a general product based on the technology. Even so, several companies have committed to rolling out Watson-based conversation assistants, including the Australian bank ANZ, Royal Bank of Canada, Nielsen, and the publishing and research company IHS.

Although Watson is designed to work on text, it can also use the output of speech recognition software, meaning that some implementations of Ask Watson may end up like a subject-specific, more knowledgeable version of Apple’s Siri. Some IBM partners are already experimenting with connecting voice recognition to Watson, says Rob High, an IBM fellow and chief technology officer of the group commercializing Watson. “It’s going to be common.”

The Ask Watson software is significantly different from the Watson that triumphed on TV two years ago, says High, with upgrades to its intelligence and design. “The hardware that was built for Jeopardy was a single-user system,” he says, and it was designed to be run on a single, very powerful computer system, which made computational efficiency a minor concern.
The new software has been adapted to run inside an IBM data center, and to spawn new, independent instances of Watson for each IBM client. “We’ve now massively parallelized Watson and reduced the footprint,” says High, making the software 75 percent smaller and 25 percent faster. Companies can use tools provided by IBM to connect a cloud-based Watson to a chat interface on their website or mobile app, or allow it to answer customer e-mails.

Watson prepped for Jeopardy by ingesting four terabytes of data, including the entirety of Wikipedia, but the Engagement Advisor version is provided to companies as a blank slate, albeit one with an understanding of human language. Watson must first feed on documents about the products and topics it is to discuss; then it’s fed tens of sample questions and answers to learn the type of language used by customers to refer to the knowledge it just ingested.

The result of that preparation is a customized version of Watson, says High. “Just like on Jeopardy, Watson can deeply understand the questions asked and knowledge relevant to the topic,” he says, enabling a person to have a relatively natural, detailed conversation with the artificial helper. Watson responds uniquely to each question it gets asked rather than repeating past responses to similar questions. “That the context frequently changes is a hallmark of human conversations,” says High.

Watson’s intelligence has also received an upgrade. It can process information laid out in tables, and also understand when a document describes a procedure with different steps and branches. The latter ability is crucial in many customer support scenarios, says High. “We can look at that procedure and recognize that there are different paths you would take depending on the context, and use that to start a conversation and guide you appropriately.”

Deborah Dahl, who consults with startup companies making use of speech recognition and intelligent agent technology, says that IBM is well-placed to prove that artificial assistants can display extensive knowledge. “It’s great to have something like Siri with wide, shallow knowledge, but there are a lot of areas where a system with deep knowledge of a particular topic could help people, make a lot of money, or save a lot of money,” says Dahl. “I think Watson is probably at the forefront of having [both] deep knowledge and natural language recognition.”

Dahl says IBM’s new offering will likely make more sense to people when it’s experienced via their mobile phone, where it is difficult to survey, explore, and digest large volumes of information at one time. Medical and financial services are likely to be the first areas the approach could be used profitably, says Dahl, because their services are both valuable and involve a lot of information.

However, Dahl notes, it is unclear how well companies and their customers will adjust to this new technology. “It’s going to take some engineering ability to take the data and put it into a form that Watson can use,” she says. It will also be challenging to deploy the end result in a way that customers like. Although IBM’s assistant is better at conversation than its predecessors, its shortcomings in comparison to a human could prove irksome for customers.
High acknowledges those challenges, and says that, so far, not even IBM has a firm idea of how customers will react to Watson as a service agent. “We’re spending a lot of time on use-case analysis and user experience,” he says.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/515296/trained-on-jeopardy-watson-is-headed-for-your-pocket/

管理人员评分

BOC  在2013-6-4 00:18  +10分  并说
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发表于 2013-6-3 22:48 |显示全部楼层
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医生和律师要失业?

发表于 2013-6-3 22:53 |显示全部楼层
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xyz58 发表于 2013-6-3 21:48
医生和律师要失业?

律师失业已经满多了。很多底层律师转行。

去年律师平均收入才13.5万,和医生的30万没法比。

所以,医院比律师行更愿意大量采用智能电脑,以消减成本。

发表于 2013-6-3 22:54 |显示全部楼层
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GP之类,不少直接可以代替了

发表于 2013-6-3 22:54 |显示全部楼层
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GP很多不都是一边google一边诊断吗?

发表于 2013-6-3 22:59 |显示全部楼层
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GP确实应该裁掉
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禁止发言

发表于 2013-6-3 22:59 |显示全部楼层
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干掉澳洲的GP吧

发表于 2013-6-3 23:00 |显示全部楼层
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GP=狗屁

发表于 2013-6-3 23:00 |显示全部楼层
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一些包头巾的GP恨不能没等病人坐稳就签字打发走。
这种GP少些有何妨。

退役斑竹

发表于 2013-6-3 23:02 |显示全部楼层
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医生和律师们会组团抗议吧……示威游行……

发表于 2013-6-3 23:04 |显示全部楼层
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高寿财 发表于 2013-6-3 22:00
一些包头巾的GP恨不能没等病人坐稳就签字打发走。
这种GP少些有何妨。

很多华人GP也很扯淡,纯粹在骗钱
like hell
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发表于 2013-6-3 23:05 |显示全部楼层
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说实话也太看得起现在人工智能的水平,现在机器在没有人工干预下,连最简单的X-RAY下骨裂都诊断不了,别说更高更复杂的病症。

发表于 2013-6-3 23:07 |显示全部楼层
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golden100 发表于 2013-6-3 22:00
GP=狗屁

同意

发表于 2013-6-3 23:07 |显示全部楼层
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太夸张了吧!

发表于 2013-6-3 23:08 |显示全部楼层
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我觉得IBM最想裁的不是医生律师,而是IBM自己的员工。

发表于 2013-6-3 23:08 |显示全部楼层
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悉尼有游侠 发表于 2013-6-3 22:05
说实话也太看得起现在人工智能的水平,现在机器在没有人工干预下,连最简单的X-RAY下骨裂都诊断不了,别说 ...

俺在其它地方看到的解释说,电脑能够帮助提高效率。

原本一个小时分析三张照片,有电脑帮助就可以分析十张。
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发表于 2013-6-3 23:23 |显示全部楼层
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fangdahai 发表于 2013-6-3 22:08
俺在其它地方看到的解释说,电脑能够帮助提高效率。

原本一个小时分析三张照片,有电脑帮助就可以分析十 ...

所以还是需要医生干预,和决策。只不过把一些labor活让机器做了,再说本来澳洲的医生效率就不高,能提高点也不错,想裁人估计没啥希望

发表于 2013-6-3 23:32 |显示全部楼层
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悉尼有游侠 发表于 2013-6-3 22:23
所以还是需要医生干预,和决策。只不过把一些labor活让机器做了,再说本来澳洲的医生效率就不高,能提高 ...

是否会引发裁员还难说,能提高效率是好事。嗯,据说还能提高准确度。

发表于 2013-6-3 23:59 |显示全部楼层
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fangdahai 发表于 2013-6-3 22:32
是否会引发裁员还难说,能提高效率是好事。嗯,据说还能提高准确度。

你的据说,真是太经典了。所有的报告都说能提高精度,但是真正用在医疗上的少之又少。

发表于 2013-6-4 00:17 |显示全部楼层
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尽管GP水平差点,我还是不愿意机器人给我看病。

发表于 2013-6-4 00:17 |显示全部楼层
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悉尼有游侠 发表于 2013-6-3 22:59
你的据说,真是太经典了。所有的报告都说能提高精度,但是真正用在医疗上的少之又少。 ...

哈哈,到底怎样俺也不知道,只能“据说”了。
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发表于 2013-6-4 00:33 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 强8 于 2013-6-3 23:36 编辑
Fernando 发表于 2013-6-3 22:04
很多华人GP也很扯淡,纯粹在骗钱


是啊,庸医哪儿都有,什么人都有。

几年前刚来墨尔本,去801 Toorak Road,Glen Iris的一家叫 A Mediscreen Clinic的诊所看病。

本来觉着是感冒,就是打喷嚏,流鼻涕,可吃了两个周的感冒药都不见效,正好有个女医生,看名字是华人,心想找她吧,可能中国人对中国人体质熟悉。结果,我一说中文,人家就说,哎呀,中文不用都不熟了。

然后就说英文吧,就说感冒了,打喷嚏,流鼻涕,吃了药不见好。结果人家说:回家继续吃药。

当我把家里一个月的感冒药吃完了,还是打喷嚏,流鼻涕,还了诊所再去看别的GP,人家告诉我说是: 花粉症!庸医真他妈害死人啊!!

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luluau + 2 顶一下华人女医生,装B被雷劈

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发表于 2013-6-4 00:57 |显示全部楼层
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楼上的这个有点搞笑哈。

发表于 2013-6-5 17:10 |显示全部楼层
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高寿财 发表于 2013-6-3 22:00
一些包头巾的GP恨不能没等病人坐稳就签字打发走。
这种GP少些有何妨。

我从来不找包头哥,10个有9个臭死你,剩下一个不是很装就是奸坏。。。。

发表于 2013-6-5 17:15 |显示全部楼层
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那是很客气了

发表于 2013-6-5 17:17 |显示全部楼层
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强8 发表于 2013-6-3 23:33
是啊,庸医哪儿都有,什么人都有。

几年前刚来墨尔本,去801 Toorak Road,Glen Iris的一家叫 A Mediscr ...

你遇到的是装B的假洋鬼子,这种人有汉奸的基因,他们羞于自己有中国血统,以为自己会说英文你不会就高你一等,有的会说普通话也装不会说,故意说广东话或英文,我遇到几次都是香港过来的,我一般看他不说中文就和他讲英文了(不想浪费时间),但下次绝对不再BOOK他。。。如果不满意就去RECEPTION投诉他没商量。。。。
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发表于 2013-6-6 12:30 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 he275 于 2013-6-6 11:31 编辑

医疗检查报告数据、药物应用信息、病例统计数据等方面,电脑比人记得精准。有些医生也依靠电脑做助手。如果病人受过良好教育,可以自己查询这些信息,不必要求助于医生。但是,对特定病例的分析,有经验的医生还是有用的

发表于 2013-6-6 12:31 |显示全部楼层
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支持

发表于 2013-6-6 12:34 |显示全部楼层
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每次去见GP,我就突然这样的想法:和我在家用BAIDU 啥区别?

发表于 2013-6-8 17:11 |显示全部楼层
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