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前一阵子讲过买房的经济上的极不合算，也揭露了一些常见的误区，具体看这里:
1.房价必须年增长5－6％才与租房或投资现金经济上持平
2.澳洲房屋严重供大于求
最近房租也全面下降，打破了一些人房价虽降，房租却涨的幻想和澳洲房子供不应求的谎言。房租除悉尼全年涨1％外（远低于通胀），其他地区直接下降。
http://smh.domain.com.au/real-es ... 20110715-1hgkv.html
而且从金融危机2008中的最低点开始的，短暂的2009和2010狂涨的部分，已经被2011年的下跌抵消掉很多，到2011年中，3年共涨了14.5％［RPData Index］. 即使你在2008年的最低点的所谓“最佳”时机买房，到现在仍然比租房，钱存银行经济回报差一点点（原因见上面第一点）。如果你在07，06年，或在09，10年买了，那就更差了。
不过头脑清晰的人大都会认识到经济上的这一点，但是强调买房是”消费“，我多花的不都是冤枉钱，而是提高了生活质量（稳定性和对自己房屋装修的乐趣等等）。不幸的是，最新的研究表明，这也可能是一厢情愿的想法。虽然研究是加拿大的，但是加拿大和澳洲有着很大的相似处。总结如下：
1。经济上长期来讲，房屋除去通胀没有任何投资回报。［注：在澳洲，不说别的，定期存款的税后回报也大于通胀不少］
2。买房者在买之前不仅会低估经济上额外的付出（比如维修和DIY项目的付出），而且会低估精神上的付出。不少的周末时间被房屋的修修补补占用。买房往往是为了炫耀（Bragging Rights）。［注：需要靠买房炫耀的人可能自信心也有点问题］
3。研究显示，房屋拥有者比租房者精神压力更大，更不happy，生活质量更差。光鲜的房子背后，是只有自己知道的省吃俭用，麻烦不断和精神压力。
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/ ... ntal-complex--page0
It’s long been established that, over the long term and after adjusting for inflation, housing produces almost no return on investment. The calculus looks even bleaker for people who don’t hold on to their properties for long. And that’s most of us.
...
Still, many people factor in an ownership premium—the amount they’d pay over and above the cost of renting for the freedom, stability and simple bragging rights of having their own place. But it doesn’t take a new homeowner long to discover just how large that premium can be in money and time: the constant outlays on maintenance and repairs (at least 1% of the purchase price per year, experts estimate, and as much as 4%), the chores and DIY projects that eat up weekends, the pressure to keep up with the ever-gentrifying Joneses. In fact, studies find that homeowners are no happier than renters and have higher levels of stress, largely due to the financial burden and greater time constraints.
Your lifestyle suffers, your worries mount—and yet, no matter how much data you throw at people, there’s an ingrained belief that being a homeowner signifies maturity and that renting connotes instability and transience. Moshe Milevsky, a finance professor at Schulich and one of Canada’s best-known home-ownership skeptics, has long argued that for young people with limited means and unrealized career potential, stowing most of their wealth in a single illiquid asset is foolhardy. Today, he thinks just about anyone would be better off renting. “I really wish I could sell my house and rent. Immediately!” he says. “The market is so overvalued. I’d sell to the biggest sucker. But my wife and kids would kill me.” That’s because, for most of us, financial considerations are only part of the equation. “The decision to purchase a house goes well beyond the practical,” says Milevsky. “It’s part of people’s identity.”
[ 本帖最后由 yuko 于 2011-7-19 08:50 编辑 ] |
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工作随感 (2005-5-26) maribel 
发表于 2011-7-18 10:50
