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本帖最后由 辰哥 于 2025-4-5 22:21 编辑
感谢大家都这么诚实
本人比较蠢所以就请教了一下chatGPT
If US tariffs were to significantly affect global trade, causing global stock markets to drop by 30% over the coming years, then the primary concern would be capital preservation, currency exposure, and diversification. Here's a breakdown of the options in such a scenario:
1. International Shares
❌ Not ideal.
These are likely to be directly impacted by the global downturn. Companies reliant on international trade or supply chains would suffer. Also, you'd be exposed to foreign currency fluctuations, which could add further risk.
2. Australian Shares
⚠️ Moderately risky.
Australia might be less exposed than some economies, but it's still part of global trade. A commodity-heavy market like Australia's could be hit if China or global demand weakens. However, it may fare better than international shares due to a potentially stronger domestic economy.
3. International Shares (Hedged)
❌ Still not ideal.
Currency hedging removes FX risk, but the core risk—falling global equities—remains. In fact, removing the FX buffer could be worse during a downturn, as a weaker AUD might otherwise cushion losses in unhedged holdings.
4. Australian Fixed Interest
✅ Safer option.
Fixed interest generally performs better during equity downturns. If the RBA cuts rates to support the economy, existing bonds rise in value. Lower risk, though still subject to inflation and credit risk.
5. Global Fixed Interest (Hedged)
✅ Good diversification.
Offers exposure to safe-haven assets like US or European government bonds. Hedging protects from FX volatility. Likely to hold or increase value during a market crash, especially if central banks cut rates.
6. Cash
✅ Most conservative.
Cash will preserve capital and offer liquidity. Australian cash may provide modest interest, but returns are limited. Good short-term safety net, but not ideal for long-term inflation protection.
我感觉赚的少比输掉裤衩要好一些，已经改策略了。以上是vanguard的选择方向 |
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堆栈摄影实践 (2015-8-17) wangbo1118 
发表于 2025-4-5 17:55
