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最近我一直在想一个问题，到底是哪些人急着在这个阶段买房？
当然这要House和公寓分开说
House
1、因为躲避疫情？赶紧买个House搬进去，不用再担心电梯和邻居了？
2、反正是work from Home，索性买个House 搬到郊区去？
3、现在换房风险小，反正是下行中，先卖了公寓，现在买个House或许还能挑挑，早日实现House梦。
公寓
1、首次置业者：自己的房子更放心，趁低价实现置业梦想。
2、投资者：疫情控制住，未来经济会好转，现在马上谷底了，抄个底。
3、现在换房风险小，反正是下行中，先卖了小公寓，现在买个大公寓或许还能挑挑，住得宽敞点。
以上几点属于个人臆想，不知各位大侠什么看法？
以下是我收集的一些市场预测，供参考。
1. SQM Research：30% decline
Mr Christopher says a "V-shaped" recovery, "where dwelling prices fall in the June quarter but start to rise again in the September or December quarters" could still occur if COVID-19 cases continue to fall and restrictions are gradually lifted during May. However, if a second wave of the virus occurs and restrictions were prolonged, he expects a "major fall" in housing prices. "When I say major we're talking up to a 30 per cent decline over a 12-month period, with the bulk of those declines occurring in Sydney and Melbourne," he said.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-24/worst-case-scenario-house-prices-fall-30pc-coronavirus-shutdown/12177084
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2. Westpac：20% decline
Westpac is forecasting a 20 per cent plunge in house prices this year in Australia's biggest property markets as coronavirus sparks a recession.
Westpac chief executive Peter King feared a property market recovery that began in mid-2019 would be unwound because of coronavirus.
'House prices are expected to fall through the remainder of 2020, reversing the recent recoveries, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne,'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8283269/Australias-biggest-housing-markets-plunge-20-foreign-student-arrivals-hit-rock-bottom.html
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3. NAB:10-15% decline
National Australia Bank predicted capital city house prices would fall by 10 to 15 per cent during the next 12 to 18 months, as unemployment hit levels unseen since the 1930s Great Depression.
The bank's chief economist Alan Oster expected apartment values to plunge at an even steeper pace than houses in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane in particular.
'We expect dwelling prices to fall by around 10 per cent this year and decline further in the first half of 2021 before levelling off.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8295565/NAB-predicts-double-digit-falls-Sydney-Melbourne-house-prices.html
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4. ANZ:10% decline
Weakening household income, reduced population growth and subdued demand will depress the housing market by 10 per cent, according to ANZ.
“We anticipate prices will bottom out in mid-2021 as affordability improves, but the recovery is likely to be relatively gradual given that unemployment is expected to remain above 7 per cent until 2022,” ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett said.
https://www.afr.com/property/residential/house-prices-to-bottom-out-by-mid-2021-20200507-p54qma
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5. CBA: 10% decline
Sydney and Melbourne property prices could tumble by 10 per cent or more in the next six months with Commonwealth Bank economists warning coronavirus pandemic economic shutdowns will make a house correction "inevitable".
The bank's head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, said there were a series of headwinds facing the property market that would all result in downward pressure on prices.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sydney-melbourne-house-prices-facing-10-per-cent-fall-cba-20200417-p54kox.html |
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去欧洲看了看 (2025-10-25) 士多可 
发表于 2020-5-15 15:43
