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本帖最后由 xialamu 于 2020-3-15 09:58 编辑
帖子中说现在确诊数据有五天延迟，病毒最喜欢健康的宿主，很多孩子没有呈现症状，但是肺部已经感染了。无症状感染的人病毒含量更多，因为病毒最喜欢健康的宿主。
换句话，无症状感染的人的传染能力更强。
帖子建议人们拜访长辈，因为如果他们熬不到疫情结束隔离结束，就可能是最后一次见他们了。不要带孩子去。因为孩子可能已经无症状感染。对老人健康威胁太大。
帖子还提到周一周二不要送孩子上学。另外一段时间后大家可能看到确诊数据变小，那是因为试纸不够了。
原帖
It is with great disappointment that I deliver this news. As a doctor and business owner, I manage a group of 27500 Australian Doctors. We almost unanimously have declared that we are not prepared for what is upon us. Not coming, it's here. I urge you to continue to read and start planning your family's safety as soon as possible.
Firstly I know that you know this is not just the flu. It kills 30 times the number of people it infects (0.1% regular flue 3% COVID-19)
I also know that you have been watching it unfold around the world and we have been seen Iranian and Italian health systems collapse under the weight of the virus.
What does collapse mean - it means that Doctors have to choose who to treat. In Italy, if you are over 65 you don't get treatment increasing the death rate of over 65s. ICU beds are needed for 30 & 40-year-olds. They don't treat people who have had cancer (ever) or have an organ transplant, regardless of age.
Medical people in these countries are communicating with us and begging us to listen and ACT NOW. Tomorrow is too late, even today might be too late.
We cannot stop the spread of the disease - we all know that eventually we have to come out of quarantine and we will have a reemergence of disease: This is why people in Bejing and other large cites still have a strict quarantine. IN Shenzhen factory workers have been in quarantine for 8 weeks - office workers were released last week to test to see if their release triggered a spike in numbers. It has: most of these numbers do not get reported to the WHO - and many are not tested.
Last night GPs around Australian received an email from the chief medical officer. We are running our of PPE and testing agents.
This spells disaster for Australia.
We have already got community transmission and thousands of overseas visitors walking the streets.
Large studies conducted show that an asymptomatic carrier has a higher viral load than a sick person (health host is a perfect host) and can spread the disease for weeks/months unknowingly. We know that children are more often than not asymptomatic but on CT scan they still have bilateral pneumonia and VERY high viral load throat swabs.
Our health system and the people in it are begging everyone to stand up and listen. Help educate your community, family and friends that we need to ACT NOW.
There is some other bad news:
We are 5 days behind testing in many states - which means our figures are 5 days old.
Projecting on the other countries we are right on track to actually have over 1000 cases right now if all the testing was up to date.
We also have all the people that those 800 people have contact with who will have it by the time the test results come in.
And there is more:
People are not obeying the isolation and quarantine rules: Not even our own cabinet and ministers. They are going out in public visiting schools and potentially spreading the infection themselves - they still even shake hands:
And there is more:
The F1 had a confirmed positive case of COVID-19 on Thursday morning yet they let the days' event run and the government did not step in until us Doctors posted, tweeted and Instagrammed over 100,000 posts in a single day getting the TEAMS to see the gravity of the situation. The government did not call it off F1 did because the teams would not race except three.
And there is more:
The travel ban on Italy was 8 days later than compared to South Korea and Iran - why? Because of the F1. Despite Italy being in a crisis and going into lockdown we let people into Australia from Europe who were infected before they arrived. They walked the streets of Melbourne, ate in our restaurants and many are still there spreading the disease.
The time has gone to implement social distancing - we need to ACT NOW and spend the next three days at home waiting for some of the tests to catch up with the real numbers - and then you will see what is really happening - and you will see it develop over 7 days - then you will see less infected people being reported as we cant test people because we would have run out of testing reagent.
1. Teach your friends and family to wash hands correctly - 25 seconds of rubbing (yes with alcohol as well) it is the rubbing that breaks the capsule on the virus and deactivates it.
2. Social distancing - if you must go out stay 1.5m away from EVERYONE that is not your immediate family
3. Go visit your parents and grandparents one - for many of us it will be the last time we see them and the rest we need to stay away for 6 months or more. DO NOT TAKE CHILDREN TO SEE GRANDPARENTS - EVEN NOW
4. Help the elderly prepare to stay at home and not leave. No visitors.
5. Do not visit nursing homes - not even now.
6. DO NOT PANIC BUY - buy your groceries + 1 week. The shops will have plenty but if you take more than you need that people will PANIC and buy too much-leaving people with none.
7. On Monday and Tuesday keep your children at home.
This is not a joke, drill or scaremongering. We are in grave danger and the next week people will see what has happened. Our hospital staff are scared our of the witts, many of us are not going to be able to go home to our families as we could take it home with us - we will have to spend months away from them. It is likely we will all get sick - as this is what happened in other places. Some of us will die - even if we are 30 - we are at much higher risk of dying due to the massive exposure.
Please listen. Please help slow the spread so we have an ICU bed for you. Please do not make us have to choose young over old.
We are expecting in the next 7 days that the public will panic unless they are warned and start preparing now - We will have riots as we saw in Italy - shelves ill be wiped clean of food and people will fight for it.
Please help us slow the disease by ACTING TODAY.
These recommendations are following the WHO suggestions
https://news.sky.com/story/coron ... -who-chief-11957199
https://www.thelocal.it/20200311 ... oronavirus-outbreak
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鱼香茄子，好吃就靠这鱼香酱了 (2007-11-29) hattie 
发表于 2020-3-15 08:01
