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本帖最后由 joe.clayton 于 2017-7-16 00:06 编辑
No Housing Bubble, says HSBC
Australia’s housing market is not in a bubble, says HSBC chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Paul Bloxham.
House price rises in Sydney and Melbourne have been offset by softer performances in Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane and the regional areas where housing demand has been weak, or supply has been boosted.
The factors attributed to the price boom in Sydney and Melbourne are strong state economies, major spending on infrastructure, demand for housing supported by migration (both international and domestic) and low interest rates.
“These fundamental factors largely explain the price boom in the biggest cities and, as a result, we do not judge it to be a bubble,” says Bloxham.
Price growth is set to slow in 2018 due to a crackdown on lending, new taxes discouraging foreign investment and expectations the RBA will hike early next year.
Mortgage Stress Lower Than 2011
Households are experiencing lower levels of mortgage stress than five years ago, says data from the past two censuses analysed by the Grattan Institute. Mortgage stress is defined as spending 30% or more of household income on home loan repayments.
“In 2011, about 10% of households had mortgage stress. Today it’s only 7%,” Grattan Institute chief executive John Daley says.
Low interest rates have made it easier for households to meet mortgage repayments.
“If a typical household bought the average home in Australia with a 20% deposit in 2011, it spent about 29% of after-tax income on repayments,” Daley says.
“A typical household buying the average home today would only spend about 26%.
上次的人口普查显示：过去五年，墨尔本人口平均人口增加１８５９人／每周。 大家自己看看每周墨市有多少房子拿出来拍卖。移民过来的可多是中产／小资本家。简单的供给／需求就摆在这。一般来说，清空率高于７０％为卖家市场。 清空率于５５％－６０％为买家卖家平市场。这是老外常用来观察房事的指标。
利率上升，两年能升多少？再升也是历史低位。房贷庒力当然不大。美国少印些钱，欧洲，中国和日本还没停下来啊。手持现金实为不智。特別是首置。
墨市有什么大型基建，自己动手找找吧。
最后来句唐诗：两岸猿声啼不住，轻舟巳过万重山！
ＰＳ。
Saturday 15th July 2017
Property Snapshot
Number Listed Auctions: 636
Number Reported Auctions: 474
Sold: 371
Withdrawn: 6
% Cleared: 77 %
Total Sales: $250,306,238
Median: $750,000
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一路向南 (2009-12-31) dickson 
发表于 2017-7-15 18:42
