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原帖由 dofu 于 2008-9-8 18:51 发表 
周华先生讲，这一次降息只是一个信号。
如果十月继续降息，将会引起房地产行情的大幅回升。
利率下跌伴随房产市场低迷，而不是上升。 房产市场和贷款松紧密切联系，而不是利率。 一句话，小心上当!
央行行长预测经济可能衰退：
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,24310748-601,00.html?from=public_rss
RBA chief admits risk of recession
Scott Murdoch | September 08, 2008
THE Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has admitted there is a risk that the Australian economy could reach recession, but he remains confident that the slowdown will be moderate.
In a parliamentary economics committee hearing in Melbourne, Mr Stevens said the economy would slow further from its current pace of growth before recovering.
The financial markets have been keen to see whether the central bank boss would give an indication of how many interest rate cuts could be delivered.
“I don't think we are in recession now - there’s not the evidence to suggest that,” Mr Stevens said.
“We are in a period of slow growth. I think it would be wrong to deny there's any risk of recession.
“There's some probability of that but the most likely outcome would still continue to be the one that is in the outlook that we have delivered over the past six months.”
Mr Stevens said that the current point in the economic cycle, unemployment could rise by up to 1 per cent.
The Australian labour market has remained tight over the past two years as the result of the powerful resources boom.
“I think unemployment is going to rise a bit over the next year to 18 months,” Mr Stevens said.
“I think in many respects we could see what's going on as rather akin to the mid-cycle pause in 2001.
“The rate of unemployment rose by 1 per cent. I'm not setting that up to a precise forecast.”
Mr Stevens told the committee that it would be some time before inflation started to reduce, given the influences of oil and the fluctuating exchange rate.
The RBA has maintained its prediction that it believes inflation will remain outside of the bank's management bracket at 3 per cent until June 2010.
“We are probably six months away from seeing clear evidence that inflation has begun to fall,” he said.
“Even then, it has to fall quite some distance before it is back to rates consistent with achieving 2-3 per cent on average.
“A somewhat larger fall in inflation overall is required on this occasion than was the case in either 2001 or 1995, which were the comparable previous episodes, since the peak inflation rate this time is higher.”
The RBA has engineered a dedicated strategy to reduce inflation by slowing the domestic economy. The GDP numbers published last week showed a 0.3 per cent expansion for the June quarter, which was below expectations.
“Rather than trying to achieve that larger fall in inflation by pushing it down more quickly, the board's strategy is to seek a gradual fall, but over a longer period,” Mr Stevens said.
“This carries less risk of a sharp slump in economic activity, though it does require a longer period of restraint on demand.
“On the other hand, this carries the risk that a long period of high inflation could lead to expectations of inflation rising to the point where it becomes both more difficult and more costly to reduce it.”
The financial markets are positioned for up to four interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the next year.
There is an 80 per cent chance that rates will be reduced at the next board meeting in October.
“Household consumption has been weaker but business investment and public spending has been a bit stronger,” Mr Stevens said.
“GDP growth, if anything up to the last data, is slightly higher.
“Is there a zero chance of recession? No, it's not zero.
“But the most likely outlook is the one we are talking about in our published outlooks.” |
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误人子弟两三年之五 (2008-3-27) astina 
参加活动: DIVA Angelina Jolie (2015-5-11) ayeeda 
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发表于 2008-9-8 19:51
