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本帖最后由 lucyliu8472 于 2013-6-13 10:18 编辑
Goldman Sach 预测2014年澳洲有五分之一的机率进入经济衰退期。对劳动力需求的减少，不稳定的政治环境，矿业的衰退，会是主要原因。
Goldman Sach投资行的经济学家Tim Toohey说20%的经济衰退期可能性是二战后风险最高时期。消费者信心低迷，也会影响到澳洲经济。这个月会是连续经济增长的第22个月。
昨天澳币跌倒33个月以来对美元最低的汇率。房贷数据也比预期的要低。2014年的头6个月会是风险最大时期。对房市的信息，会是刺激经济的主要原因。但到目前为止，人们还是没有足够信心花钱。55% 的可能性央行RBA下个月会再降息。
明天会公布的失业率也会影响，如果失业率上升，会给RBA澳洲央行施压继续在7月降息。
National Australia Bank business survey 澳洲国民银行商业调查显示，澳币利率低了，但是澳洲国内经济形势不容乐观。
补充，失业率隔壁已经公布： http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/f ... &extra=page%3D1
原文 http://www.heraldsun.com.au/busi ... 0dcne-1226662122140
THERE is a one-in-five chance Australia will tumble into recession next year as the slowdown in mining investment takes its heaviest toll, according to Goldman Sachs.
Poor labour demand and a volatile political environment are among major risk factors for the economy as the mining boom ends, the global investment bank says.
Goldman Sachs economist Tim Toohey says that if the financial crisis is set aside - along with other periods of severe economic slowdown - the 20 per cent risk rate is the highest "in the post-war period".
In a report released yesterday, he says weak business and consumer confidence are also key threats to Australia's remarkable chapter of economic growth.
The economy is likely this month to chalk up its 22nd year of growth, uninterrupted by recession.
The warning yesterday came as the Australian dollar fell to a fresh 33-month low of US93.56c.
It coincided with the release of housing finance figures that were weaker than expected.
Goldman Sachs says the first six months of 2014 are a danger zone, with Australia's annual economic growth rate tipped to drop below 2 per cent.
The key to turning the economy around is boosting confidence in the household sector, the report says.
A strengthening global outlook, a weaker Australian dollar - around US90c - and lower interest rates would help restore confidence and lift growth, Mr Toohey said.
"Much will depend on how quickly business and consumer sentiment responds," he said.
"The housing investment market is just not a big enough contributor to do it alone.
"The biggest risk of sending the country into recession is the consumer continuing to not engage."
According to betting on futures markets, there is a 55 per cent chance the Reserve Bank will cut the official cash rate to 2.5 per cent next month.
Some economists are tipping rates may even drop as low as 2 per cent over the next year.
Analysts say employment figures due tomorrow are pivotal.
"A sharp fall in employment would certainly put more pressure on the RBA to cut rates in July," Macquarie Bank economist Richard Gibbs said.
The latest National Australia Bank business survey shows confidence remains in the doldrums with any lift from the lower Australian dollar wiped out by domestic weakness.
The business confidence index for May was unchanged from April at -1 points - well below the long-term average of 5 points, since 1989.
Readings below zero indicate confidence is deteriorating.
- See more at: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/busi ... thash.AUH4qmpJ.dpuf |
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参加活动 值得一去再去的地方——从北到南不经意间发现越南的美 (2011-4-15) tinanest 
发表于 2013-6-13 10:11
