澳元点位分析

tjlsb72

中银的结售汇是到晚上十点，外汇买卖是到凌晨六点，所以昨晚才能看到非农数据后操作

dingyipu

GS： We remain flat here with levels to watch: support at 0.8730-40 and then 0.8645-55 (YTD lows). First resistance at 0.8820-30, then 0.8860 (last week’s high).

dingyipu

tjlsb72 发表于 2014-10-4 19:03
中银的结售汇是到晚上十点，外汇买卖是到凌晨六点，所以昨晚才能看到非农数据后操作 ...

有些银行是可以在线24小时自助换汇的，比较好。即先在工作时间兑换成美元，然后就可以随便换了。换美元时有手续费，然后就没有手续费了。

shdanding

dingyipu 发表于 2014-9-27 01:07

好不容易，总算够资格下载看了

dingyipu

shdanding 发表于 2014-10-21 18:17
好不容易，总算够资格下载看了

恭喜，坚持就是胜利。那就再给你发几个吧...

dingyipu

shdanding 发表于 2014-10-21 18:17
好不容易，总算够资格下载看了

dingyipu

shdanding 发表于 2014-10-21 18:17
好不容易，总算够资格下载看了

dingyipu

亚市时段，澳元/美元跳空低开，并震荡下行。多重利空因素包括：美元走强，原油及黄金价格承压下行；再加上中国官方制造业PMI从9月的51.1下降至10月的50.8；但澳元/美元受到一定支撑，下行空间有限。其中包括：由于风险厌恶情绪好转，澳元/日元的买盘带动对澳元需求；澳元/纽元走强，间接提振澳元。关注日内的中国10月汇丰制造业采购经理人指数、澳大利亚10月商品价格指数。日图信号不一：MACD看涨；随机指标看跌。支撑：0.8715 (10月24日低点) ；0.8684 (10月16日低点) 。阻力：0.8807；0.8850(周五高点)。

dingyipu

Event risk today: NZ has electronic spending, while Australia has business confidence and house prices, and China has lending data – all minor for markets. The US has a holiday (Veteran’s Day) but will release the small business sentiment report.
AUD/USD 1 day: It’s back under the key 0.8650 level and should assume a downward bias today.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: AUD’s decisive break below 0.8650, if sustained, heralds a much deeper decline.  By early 2015, though, markets should start pricing in an RBA tightening cycle (we expect the first hike to be in August 2015) which should boost the AUD, although Fed tightening expectations will be an offset.
NZD/USD 1 day: Retains a negative bias and should drift towards the 0.7700 level.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: The October rebound appears complete at 0.8034. A sustained break below the key 0.7700 area then targets the mid-0.70’s. The US dollar remains strong, the US economic data supportive and Fed tightening looming. In contrast, the RBNZ will remain on hold during the year ahead, at least, while inflation remains weak.   
AUD/NZD 1 day: Expected to test 1.1090 support today, enroute to 1.1000.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: Despite the corrective declines in September and October, it appears a multi-year reversal in the cross probably began in January at 1.0493. The RBNZ is probably on hold until at least September 2015, while the market has yet to start pricing in an RBA tightening cycle which should launch in August 2015. However, cyclical reversals are often messy affairs, and this one is so far proving no exception. It needs to break above the 1.1280-1.1310 area to confirm a larger rise above 1.16.
AU swap yields 1 day: In response to movement in Australian bond futures overnight the 2yr should open around 2.78%, while the 10yr should open around 3.72%.
AU swap yields 1-3 month: Yield support for the 2yr around 2.60% is holding but remains vulnerable. The 10yr remains under downward pressure as global yields continue to fall. By early 2015, though, we would expect markets to start pricing in RBA tightening, pushing swap yields higher.
NZ swap yields 1 day: Given movements in US and AU yields overnight, NZ yields should open higher, the 2yr up 1bp at 3.91%, and the 10yr up 2bp at 4.43%.
NZ swap yields 1-3 month: The upward trend in NZ interest rates has stalled, the RBNZ’s switch to an almost neutral bias plus inflation threatening the bottom of the target band likely to result in the RBNZ on hold until at least Sep-2015. That should see the 2yr test 3.87% yield support, a break then taking it to around 2.75%. The 10yr targets 4.20% below as long as the US treasury bond rally (which started in January) continues.