储行看衰房市 料房价增长放缓

aaas

储行看衰房市 料房价增长放缓


　　（本报讯）澳洲储备银行（RBA）金融稳定部门主管埃利斯（Luci Ellis）日前指出，澳洲向低通胀率经济过渡意味着房价将放缓增长的速度，更多情况下房价甚至将下降。
　　埃利斯周二在雪梨表示，20世纪80年代与20世纪90年代低通胀环境就意味着低利率水平。这也就表明，房奴将增加他们的房贷数额，甚至高于他们的收入水平。她指出：“低通胀率环境说明，即使其它一切都未发生改变，但澳洲家庭贷款与收入比率有可能翻番。”
　　向更高额的贷款过渡时期可能还需要过一段时间才将到来，因为房奴正在还清更小规模的贷款，房价也需要一定的时间进行调整。埃利斯称：“不过这一过渡期在经过一段时间后将结束，我们估计当前这一时期已经画上了句点。”
　　在房价与收入的比率趋于稳定后，房贷与家庭收入的比值自2005年以来一直都大致持平，这一过渡期也改变了家庭储蓄与支出的方式。
　　由于房价不断上扬，家庭收入中被存入银行账户的资金比例（包括还贷资金）跌落至零点附近，不过自此该比例一直处于零点的上方。埃利斯表示：“鉴于过去五年该比例都相当稳定，似乎认为我们处于或接近一个‘新常态’是一个合理的假设。”
　　埃利斯预计，不久的未来房价继续高涨的时期将结束，储蓄比例将重返稳定水平。她说：“首先，未来房价上涨的速度将比过去30年都缓慢。”储行并没有明确表明房价是否将“温和上涨、下跌或持平（相较于收入而言）”。“不过我们认为未来的房价不大可能重返20世纪70年代的水平，或是再度快速增长。我们也并不认为本世纪初的繁荣景象还将重现。”
　　“第二，若房价正在以一个更低的平均水平周期循环的话，那么更多时候房价将降低。第三，银行应当降低资产负债表增长的预期。我们一直以来都持如此观点，我们并不希望银行降低它们的借贷标准，从而获得更多盈利。”

yangwulong1978

新足迹的专家持反对意见

八月晨天

房价不会跌的

nickzhang111

最多住一个出租一个，市场好的时候就挑一挑好一点的。

simond

House price is depend upon supply and demand, and also inflation.
If major countries like China, US, Europe and Japan are printing money, the inflation in global scale is unavoidable. So sooner or later OZ will print money as others. When inflation do comes, the equity like house will go up with it.

See following article:


Melbourne house price growth outperforms Sydney in March quarter: APM

By Alistair Walsh
Wednesday, 24 April 2013

Melbourne house price growth outperformed Sydney in the March quarter, according to Australian Property Monitors.

Melbourne’s median house price grew 3.6% over the quarter to $538,922 while Sydney’s grew 1.7% to $673,681.

Andrew Wilson, APM’s senior economist, says, “Melbourne was the standout performer."

Year on year, Sydney price growth is still outperforming Melbourne though, growing 4.2% compared to 3.7% in Melbourne.

"Sydney has now posted consecutive quarters of record level median house prices to clearly move from the recovery phase that commenced early in 2012 into a solid expansionary phase of cyclical house price growth," Wilson says.

Sydney’s median house price is at a record high.

In Sydney, the median apartment price dropped 1.6% over the quarter after a 3.6% rise in December. In Melbourne median apartment prices rose 2.6% over the quarter, the third consecutive rise.

"This is the best performance by the Melbourne housing market since the March quarter of 2010.

"Melbourne’s median house price has now risen by +3.7% over the past year but remains 4.2% below its previous peak level," Wilson says.

Across the nation, house prices grew 1.7% over the quarter and 3.2% over the year. Apartments dropped 0.7% though they are still 0.7% up for the year.

Wilson says this is the best start to the year for country since strong conditions in 2010. He says there is little sign of this changing.

“Buyer activity is set to increase through the remainder of 2013 driven by growing optimism and record low interest rates that have likely bottomed out," he says.

But he says the extent of continued growth will depend on the performance of both the national and local economies.

The national median house price has now risen solidly for two quarters in a row, up by 1.7 % over the March quarter.

Brisbane house prices increase for the third quarter in a row for the first time in three years.

Adelaide and Canberra buck the national trend with median house prices falling over the March quarter.

apmapril24one

whiskeylullaby

房市的調整只是對房價的進一步鞏固，為下一步的大漲打基礎。

sweetLily

中国房市的钱都流到澳洲加拿大美国了，房价能跌吗？储行的人得多研究国际形式，不能总盯着挣一个花俩的澳洲本土人看

bbsbox

央行的“砖家”