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大多数房地产分析都是分析经济,供需等因素。这篇文章比较特别,专门分析baby boomer这个主力对房产市场的影响,觉得不错,和大家分析。
http://smh.domain.com.au/real-es ... 20111026-1mizf.html
全文比较长,把终结摘录一下,就是baby boomer拥有澳洲50%的房子,现在要退休了,所以要卖他们的房子,特别是investement property或则大房换小房。因此对长远房价有影响。
The conclusion that the Baby Boomer's retirement will provide long-term headwinds for the housing market is supported by a detailed working paper released last year by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) covering 22 advanced nations over the coming 40 years.
According to the BIS paper, as the Baby Boomers reached working age and started buying housing from 1970, they helped to push up property prices throughout the world.
In Australia, over the past 40 years the Boomers increased real house prices by around 30 per cent compared with what would have occurred had our age structure remained neutral.
However, the ageing of the Baby Boomers is projected to reduce Australia's real house price growth by around 30 per cent over the next 40 years compared with neutral demographics.
In summary, those planning long-terms investments will do well to consider Australia's changing demographics.
觉得有用,加分啊
[ 本帖最后由 aus2005 于 2011-10-26 16:51 编辑 ] |
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