【IPO讨论】大家对澳洲IPO了解的，都来一起讨论分享

bondzh

之前看到老妖对Inghams IPO的分享，觉得挺有帮助的：ING - Ingham IPO不要上当了，记得dick smith
希望大家有啥IPO信息和想法都能畅所欲言。
我来开个头：最近broker推荐的IPOs：

• Midway Limited,
• Automotive Solutions Groups,
• Litigation Capital Management.
  

事先声明：本人没买，也不是推荐。对澳洲IPO不熟，只是抛砖引玉，希望能在大家的讨论分析中，了解澳洲ipo的风险和回报。和如何分析筛选好的ipo

lefeng999

一般来说，我认为国外的ipo应该尽量避免参与：1. 上市前报表化妆严重；2. 一般提供的往年报表并不具备参考性，缺乏细节和审计；3. 发行定价参照的增长率无从考究，以至于定价过高；4. 简单的逻辑，上市意味着高管和大股东出让股权，这本身就是极大的利空。

bondzh

lefeng999 发表于 2016-11-14 11:32
一般来说，我认为国外的ipo应该尽量避免参与：1. 上市前报表化妆严重；2. 一般提供的往年报表并不具备参考 ...

上市没有规定多久不能出让么？

交易人生

50%赢50%输；如果第一天跌破发行价，一定要退出。ipo一定要是自己熟悉的，其实class和baby buntings 还是挺好的。

度己度人

通常政府资产来上市的，会比较好。投资公司拿出来的，千万不要。企业家自己拿出来的，千差万别，可以仔细研究

bondzh

Litigation Capital Management Ltd "LCM" (ASX: LCA)
Initial Public Offer to raise a minimum $7.5 million (new equity)
Morgans bids due - Tuesday, 15 November 2016

Network presentation - 12.30pm Brisbane (1.30pm Sydney) Tuesday, 8 November 2016

The LCM Prospectus has been lodged and the attached prospectus can be sent to clients.

Investment Highlights:
At IPO, LCM has a maturing portfolio of Litigation Projects with 36% of the existing project book anticipated to complete in FY17
FY18 earnings should be significantly higher than FY17 - the remaining 64% of the existing project book is expected to complete in FY18
LCM has a strong pipeline of Litigation Projects ready to commence immediately after IPO - 15 Litigation Projects presently under review with an estimated Gross Claim Size of $1.4 billion and an estimated budget of $35 million
The IPO proceeds will allow LCM to commence new projects that will build out profitability in FY19 and beyond
Patrick Moloney (Managing Director) has been involved with the business since 2003 and will have substantial equity ownership post IPO.
The offer is attractively priced (see Offer details below)

Operating performance:
Over the last five years LCM  has managed 24 litigation projects with the following key stats -
Total return of $23.6 million on the total Invested Capital of $10.3 million
Average return on invested capital - 2.3 times
79% of Projects resolved profitably
Average project duration - 26 months
Average portfolio project IRR - 79%

Morgans is Settlement Broker to the Initial Public Offer.

Key offer details:
The IPO is for new shares only, there is no sell down.
Offer Price       
$0.70
Total number of offer shares       
10.7 - 21.4 million
Total number of shares post-IPO 1       
42.8 - 53.5 million
Gross offer proceeds       
$7.5 - $15.0 million
Market capitalisation at offer price 2       
$30.0 - $37.5 million
Forecast Basic EPS3       
9.9 - 10.8 cents
Forecast PE ratio at the Offer price4       
6.5 - 7.1x
Debt post IPO       
$0.8 - $8.4 million


1. Does not include 2,866,050 Unquoted Partly Paid Shares, 4,690,116 Unquoted Founder Options and 1,500,000 Unquoted Incentive Options;
2. Total Shares on issue on completion of the Offer multiplied by the Offer Price;
3. Forecast FY17 Basic EPS is calculated as the Pro Forma FY17 NPAT of approximately $4.1 million (Minimum Subscription) or approximately $4.4 million (Maximum Subscription) (refer to Section 6 of the Prospectus for more details) divided by the expected weighted average Shares on issue for FY17 of approximately 38.4 million (Minimum Subscription) Shares or approximately 44.7 million Shares (Maximum Subscription);
4. The Forecast FY17 PE Ratio is calculated as the Offer Price divided by the Forecast FY17 Basic EPS

Use of Funds for maximum offer size:
Financing for existing Litigation Projects       
$1.5 million
Repayment of Credit Facility 1       
$7.5 million
Working capital and financing for new Litigation Projects       
$3.9 million
Costs of the offer       
$2.1 million
Total       
$15.0 million

1. To the extent that the Offer is not fully subscribed, the amount applied towards repaying the Credit Facility will be reduced. If the Minimum Subscription is raised, no proceeds will be applied towards the repayment of the Credit Facility.

Indicative Timetable:
Prospectus lodged with ASIC       
Monday 7 November
Morgans bids due       
5pm Tuesday 15 November
Offer closes       
25 November
Settlement       
30 November
Expected date for quotation
of shares on ASX       
6 December


Note: All dates are subject to change and are indicative only.

bondzh

Midway Limited (Midway) is a leading company in the Australian forestry sector, primarily involved in the production and export of high quality wood chip fibre to producers of pulp, paper and associated products in China and Japan.

Founded in 1980, Midway wholly owns strategic processing and export facilities in Geelong and is the majority stakeholder in strategic processing and export facilities in Portland and Brisbane

Morgans is Joint Lead Manager and Underwriter to the Initial Public Offer.

Investment Highlights:
Midway is the largest Australian processor of wood chips with multiple growth opportunities
High margin business with strategic port & processing facilities
Favourable industry supply and demand dynamics
Abundant supply of raw material and a strategic alliance with Renewable Resources
Strong and established customer relationships in key Asian markets
FY2017 forecast sales >$200 million and EBITDA of ~$28.1 million
Long standing and experienced board and senior management team.

Key Offer Terms:


Offer Price        
$2.50
Total number of existing shares to be sold under the offer
12.0 million
Amount to be raised under the Offer
$30.0 million
Total Number of shares on issue on completion of the offer
74.8 million
Implied market capitalisation at the Offer price
$187.0 million
Net debt at IPO
$26.9 million
Implied enterprise value at the Offer price
$213.9 million

Key Offer Metrics:

FY2017F EBITDA Multiple
7.6x
FY2017F PE Multiple
11.4x
Indicative dividend yield for FY2017 at the Offer Price
(based on the midpoint of the payout ratio of the pro forma forecast FY2017 NPAT)
7.0%

Growth Drivers:
Geographical expansion through acquisitions of complementary businesses both domestically and internationally.
Potential industry consolidation
Favourable Demand/Supply dynamics and margin expansion        
Expansion of existing infrastructure

Use of Funds:

The funds raised through the Offer will be used to fund the sell down of minority shareholders.

The two existing major shareholders will not be selling into the IPO and are escrowed for a period of 2 years.

Indicative Timetable

Management Network Presentation
10.00am (QLD) / 11.00am (Melb/Syd)
Tuesday, 8 November 2016
Broker Firm Bids Due
5pm, Tuesday, 15 November 2016
Institutional Bookbuild
Wednesday, 16 November 2016
Prospectus Lodgement
Thursday, 17 November 2016
Retail Offer opens
Monday, 28 November 2016
Retail Offer closes
Monday, 5 December 2016
Settlement of the Offer
Tuesday, 6 December 2016
Allocation
Wednesday, 7 December 2016
ASX Listing (on deferred settlement basis)
Thursday, 8 December 2016
Dispatch of Holding Statements
Friday, 9 December 2016
Normal settlement trading
Monday, 12 December 2016

Note: All dates are subject to change and are indicative only.

bondzh

Automotive Solutions Group Ltd (ASGL), which is an aggregation business that is looking to mimic the success of ARB Corp (ASX: ARP) and AMA Group (ASX: AMA).

Some key points about ASGL:
Offer price is $1 and company is looking to raise around $25m with an indicative market cap of $45m and EV of $52m.
Selected 8 initial businesses in the 4X4/SUV category based on financial performance, geographical reach, strategic fit, etc.
ASGL has vertically integrated supply chain (from manufacturing to retail) with dealer network of ~250 across Australia
Impressive management team that includes Tanya Mason (MD), who has proven track record in extracting operational synergies for the likes of QR National, BHP, McKinsey, etc; and Tom Phillips (chairman) who is ex President and CEO of Mitsubishi Australia.
Stock is attractively priced with forward P/E of 10.5X vs circa 20X+ for ARB and AMA Group.
ASGL looks attractive against other aggregation stocks like Primary Health Care (ASX: PRY) and Greencross (ASX: GXL) too.

bondzh

交易人生 发表于 2016-11-14 11:38
50%赢50%输；如果第一天跌破发行价，一定要退出。ipo一定要是自己熟悉的，其实class和baby buntings 还是挺 ...

class是什么？

lefeng999

bondzh 发表于 2016-11-14 11:36
上市没有规定多久不能出让么？

承销商和高管会有限制，但是ipo本身就是原始股东通过出让股权来套现的过程。还有很多ipo甚至成功后会奖励高管和原始股东大笔奖金。

交易人生

bondzh 发表于 2016-11-14 11:47
class是什么？

代码cl1，以前叫class super，去年12月ipo 1.2，可能是，现在3刀，最高到过4刀。

bondzh

交易人生 发表于 2016-11-14 11:50
代码cl1，以前叫class super，去年12月ipo 1.2，可能是，现在3刀，最高到过4刀。 ...

如何筛选出这类ipo呢？

交易人生

bondzh 发表于 2016-11-14 11:50
如何筛选出这类ipo呢？

因为熟悉这家公司，同他们有交往，所以知道它会好，所以一定要熟悉这家公司。baby buntings，当你经常买东西，看到他们的店一天比一天多，就知道应当不坏。

WilsonsProm

交易人生 发表于 2016-11-14 11:38
50%赢50%输；如果第一天跌破发行价，一定要退出。ipo一定要是自己熟悉的，其实class和baby buntings 还是挺 ...

Class one吗? 这只股票最近好像要走下坡路了.

bondzh

lefeng999 发表于 2016-11-14 11:48
承销商和高管会有限制，但是ipo本身就是原始股东通过出让股权来套现的过程。还有很多ipo甚至成功后会奖励 ...

但至少上市后的几天还不会利空吧？

yjhem2001

对于一个没有承销商的IPO，要到哪里去买原始股呢

pan123au

Domain 年底就要上市，可以买原始股？