2017年全澳各首府城市都将出现公寓过剩

liu88

BIS Shrapnel has been highlighting for the past year that the majority of capital city markets, with the exception of Sydney, will be going into oversupply by mid-2017.

It needs to be understood that since 2010, house-price growth in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Darwin has been below the inflation rate and given these cities are already oversupplied, or will be by 2017, we think modest nominal declines are possible and falling real prices are certain over the next three years.

In Sydney, despite a record 45,000 dwelling commencements in calendar 2015, it needs to be remembered that between 2006 and 2014, there was a massive underbuild and it was this undersupply that has driven price growth of over 55 per cent in median house prices in Sydney since September 2012.

Rental vacancy rates remain at 2 per cent and there is an extremely low risk that any oversupply will develop in the Sydney market before 2020, unless high-density apartment commencements are sustained at current record levels.

Given the drop in investor demand over the past six months, we forecast an easing in off-the-plan apartment sales over 2016-17 and 2017-18. In this scenario BIS Shrapnel's forecast is for median apartment prices to decline by a modest 5 per cent to 7 per cent by late 2018 and even less for detached houses.

liu88

2017年全澳各首府城市都将出现公寓过剩

2017年7月前，除了悉尼，澳洲各首府城市都将出现房产过剩。

自从2010年起，布里斯班，阿德莱德，佩斯，霍巴特，达尔文的房产价格增加速度低于CPI。由于这些城市的房屋数量过多，这些城市的房价将在未来3年内继续下跌。

在悉尼，尽管2015年全年有4.5万套新房开工，但请记住，在2006-2014年的9年时间，悉尼的新房开工严重不足。新房的供应不足导致2012年9月至2015年底悉尼的House价格上涨超过了55%

悉尼的房屋空置率仅仅为2%。这意味着在2020年之前房价没有下跌的风险，除非公寓的开工量保持在目前创记录的水平。

Given the drop in investor demand over the past six months, we forecast an easing in off-the-plan apartment sales over 2016-17 and 2017-18. In this scenario BIS Shrapnel's forecast is for median apartment prices to decline by a modest 5% to 7% by late 2018 and even less for detached houses.

liu88

NSW失业率为5.5%，而昆州，维州的失业率为6.4%,6.3%

liu88

After some previously massive months of jobs growth, employment in New South Wales (and Victoria) pulled back in January 2016, while Queensland went on to record further gains.

过去6个月里，澳洲经济创造了14.34万个新工作岗位，其中NSW占43%，昆州占38%。新州和昆州创造的新职位总数占澳洲的81%。

在过去1年里，新州的新工作岗位增加了4.7%。 昆州增加了3.3%

liu88

按照澳大利亚统计局的数据，从2010年起的6年里，墨尔本房价增速就超过了中位收入增速的7倍。中位周薪从1266每周增长了10%达到1398，而房价从44.2万增长了70%，到74.9万。在墨尔本，一些流行区域的房价在过去10年翻了3倍。

在悉尼在此期间，中位周薪从1251元上涨到了1513元，上涨幅度17%，而房价几乎从54.6万翻了一倍，达到超过100万。

悉尼屌丝

悉尼还不足？我不信，哪里来的人？

索菲=穆特

刘总的马甲？

烈火

APT都得死，这个我认可

KaTharina

悉尼以后会承载澳洲一半的人口吧

OZ518

都晚上11点还在翻译文章，刘翻译官够尽责的

hughyoyo

楼上几位错已， 楼主是大名鼎鼎的西哥。

ZxxxxZ

去库存，去库存