Interest Rate stays at 7.25%

紫月怡雪

STATEMENT BY GLENN STEVENS, GOVERNOR
MONETARY POLICY

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 7.25 per cent.

Inflation in Australia has been high over the past year in an environment of limited spare capacity and earlier strong growth in demand. This was evident again in the most recent CPI data. In these circumstances, the Board has been seeking to restrain demand in order to reduce inflation over time.

As a result of increases in the cash rate last year and early this year, additional rises in market interest rates and tougher credit standards, there has been a substantial tightening in financial conditions since the middle of 2007. Some further tightening has occurred over the past couple of months. Conditions in international financial markets remain difficult, with heightened concerns over credit persisting.

The evidence is that the tightening in financial conditions, in conjunction with other factors including rising fuel costs, and lower asset values, has restrained demand. Indicators of household spending have continued to record subdued outcomes over recent months, and credit expansion to both households and businesses has slowed significantly. Surveys suggest a softening in business activity, and there have also been some early signs of an easing in labour market conditions.

The rise in Australia’s terms of trade that is currently occurring is working in the opposite direction, adding substantially to national income and ability to spend. At the same time, high prices of oil and a range of other commodities have added to global inflationary risks. They are also dampening growth in a number of countries.

Given the opposing forces at work, considerable uncertainty has surrounded the outlook for demand and inflation. On balance, however, it is looking more likely that demand will remain subdued, and economic growth will be fairly slow, over the period ahead. Inflation is likely to remain relatively high in the short term, with the CPI affected by high global oil prices. Looking further ahead, inflation in both CPI and underlying terms is likely to decline over time, given the outlook for demand, provided wages growth remains moderate. The Bank’s forecast remains that inflation will fall below 3 per cent during 2010.

Weighing up the available domestic and international information, the Board judged that the cash rate should remain unchanged this month. Nonetheless, with demand slowing, the Board’s view is that scope to move towards a less restrictive stance of monetary policy in the period ahead is increasing.


http://www.rba.gov.au/MediaReleases/2008/mr_08_12.html

[ 本帖最后由 紫月怡雪 于 2008-8-5 14:48 编辑 ]

beibei2006

no gurantee the banks won't lift their rate.

tonyju626

..............

语阁

NND，咋是这个消息

不过，我看到的消息是：
澳元走势不稳,因澳洲央行可能强调经济风险升高,令未来几个月有机会降息的臆测甚嚣尘上.
  路透上周五调查的21位分析师,无人预期澳洲本周会降息,但9月调整利率的机率有30%.澳洲目前利率为7.25%.
  "如果市场发现,澳洲央行有关货币政策有任何转变为宽松的迹象,澳元可能继续下滑."一日本信托银行交易商称.

[ 本帖最后由 语阁 于 2008-8-5 15:24 编辑 ]

dizzypiggy

what will be the consequents then?

紫月怡雪

澳币在消息出来后跌地挺厉害，因为statement里预示了近期降息的可能性。(monkey16)

LJ2008

并不代表商业银行就一定不会再加息~~~

anyway，最起码是个不会让人再惶惶不安的信号。

西关少爷

as expected

语阁

澳元扩大跌幅,兑美元创四个月新低,因澳洲央行周二为日后降息铺路,使投资人认为最快可能9月降息.
  澳洲央行一如预期维持利率在7.25%,但在声明中称,其转往较宽松政策的空间正在加大,为日后降息舖路.
  "这番声明令市场人士深信,澳洲央行未来很可能降息,而非升息,"信金中央金库外汇交易商Hiroshi Yoshida指出.
  在发表声明稿之前,部分市场人士押注该行下次的举动将是升息,因通膨压力居高不下.