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本帖最后由 wlktczhc 于 2020-2-24 21:08 编辑
求大神们讨论下a2m.
更新：今天的血腥风雨教育我 在全球恐慌情绪主导下，什么ta 什么fa都不管用 市场只有一个信念 逃得越快越好 哈哈
下面是周末整理的一些资料
前几天因为担忧病毒会造成运输延误，客户需求减少影响销售额（2周前帮中国同学找代购买爱他美白金2段，代购给我的价格表上爱他美和a2有几个产品都断货了。我在新西兰），加上最近看到不少 'sell on the news'的例子, 决定出半年财报前找机会高位出掉锁定前段时间的盈利（上周卖了1/3）。周末找了一些资料，看法有所改变。以下只是我个人观点，求讨论
- 病毒的影响
本月27号将公布Interim Report for six months to 31 December 2019. 虽然病毒可能早就存在，但中国政府是今年1月份才宣布疫情，23号武汉封城，因此病毒对1H20的结果不应该有影响。但财报会提及2H20 的outlook, 其中的措辞值得注意。
- 盈利预期&实际结果
19/11/2019 开年会时对1H20预期如下：
For 1H20, we anticipate revenue in the range of $780 million to $800 million with growth demonstrating strong performance against strategy:
− China label infant nutrition sales forecast to be approximately $135 million representing a growth rate of ~84%
− CBEC1 infant nutrition sales forecast to be approximately $155 million2 representing a growth rate of ~54%
− ANZ English label infant nutrition sales forecast to be approximately $350 million representing a growth rate of ~9%
− US sales forecast to be approximately $27 million representing a growth rate of ~110%
− Australia fresh milk sales forecast to be $75 million representing a growth rate of ~12%
13/02/2020 Response to Synlait Milk Limited’s earnings and outlook announcement:
' The a2 Milk Company confirms that its business performance remains strong and it continues to be in compliance with its continuous disclosure obligations.'
现任的interim CEO Geoffrey Babidg 公认比较可靠， 所以他这时候肯定‘its business performance remains strong’是否能认为财报结果达到预期或更好？
无独有偶，short position就在这天突然开始下降从13/2的7.64% 到17/2的6.91% (shortman.com.au, data with a lag of 4 trading days). asx 会发布前一个工作日short sales data, 我有段时间每天复制数据到excel分析, 弥补4天的数据延误，但时间一长忙起来就搁置了。请问大家还有什么地方能找到之前几天short sales的数据吗？
- 中国市场竞争问题
22/02/2020南华早报文章：Foreign brands still dominate as parents do not trust China's home-grown baby milk formula maker 12 years on from melamine milk scandal
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3051808/foreign-brands-still-dominate-parents-do-not-trust-chinas-home
文章大篇幅叙述了中国政府有意发展本国奶业来减少对海外进口奶粉的依赖，在此背景下本地品牌特别是Feihe的市场份额迅速增加，但增加的这些份额大部分都在lower-tier cities, tier1 cities的客户还是更愿意购买进口奶粉。在文章的最后介绍了3个海外品牌: danone, bub, a2m.
文章是这么介绍a2m的：The a2 Milk Company uses cows in New Zealand that produce milk containing A2 protein, thought to be healthier and easier to digest.
引述Geoff采访时说的话：‘It is a very large market, it is continuing to grow. Our view is there is space for a range of players, both domestic and international, that provide a solution to what the mothers are seeking.’
- Consumer staples ：历史数据显示整个行业总体来看在recession时比较安全。更新：今天a2m比大市跌得更厉害，怀疑a2m不属于recession proof stock？
- sell or buy on the news?
发现最近很多股票财报达到预期有些甚至超越预期还是被sell the news, 但这些股票基本上是公布前提前把好消息涨掉了，今天连slr也这么操作了一波。 但a2m从上周五开始下跌，今天狂跌，所以到周四会不会来个buy the news?
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楼主:拙招守一
发表于 2020-2-24 13:35
