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本帖最后由 悉尼好 于 2014-3-4 15:14 编辑
首先说个离题的,RBA的申明,书写很到位,准不准我们不谈,但没有屁话套话,每个词都有深刻含义。
悉尼好解读RBA议息会议声明,只选我关心可以影响汇率的:
At the same time, resources sector investment spending is set to decline significantly and, at this stage, signs of improvement in investment intentions in other sectors are only tentative. Public spending is scheduled to be subdued.
tentative的概念,是投资下降5.3%,澳元当天跌有1%左右,你说significantly是多少?
If domestic costs remain contained, some moderation in the growth of prices for non-traded goods could be expected over time, which should keep inflation consistent with the target, even with lower levels of the exchange rate.
第一次提到汇率,注意用词,lower。RBA脑子里想什么你自己想。
The decline in the exchange rate seen to date will assist in achieving balanced growth in the economy, though the exchange rate remains high by historical standards.
第二次提汇率,指出在历史高位
Over time, growth is expected to strengthen, helped by continued low interest rates and the lower exchange rate.
第三次提汇率,全文最关键,low和lower!白纸黑字,联邦储备行看跌澳元。
Inflation is expected to be consistent with the 2–3 per cent target over the next two years.
固定利率这几周为什么纷纷跌?因为未来2年利息不会怎么变,甚至不变。
http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2014/mr-14-03.html
最后说下,澳元汇率怎么决定的?大宗货贸易量?美澳10年债yield差?我留给你决定,不变的是,两者都要大跌,白纸黑字,RBA今天和你说明白了。今天毫无争议的就是,RBA再次被迫承认,澳元汇率过高。2月初开始的澳元上升趋势已经完全消失,下跌是唯一出路
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