证券外汇今日: 30|主题: 16647

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AUD rebound over 0.83 again 最后跟贴：美国可能要减息最后发表：不会游泳的鱼	ingeer 2007-5-8 17:48	11505	不会游泳的鱼 2007-5-8 18:06
看这个论坛这么火爆，也忍不住进来玩玩最后跟贴：多谢devil和老妖！最后发表：zcflying	zcflying 2007-5-7 14:48	142230	zcflying 2007-5-8 11:31
$11.1 billion Qantas grab fails 最后跟贴：I've never believed the QAN deal would go anywhere. It's a national brand, and so much resistance from both inside and outside of the companies. 最后发表：Devil_Star	austeps_join 2007-5-4 22:25	121954	Devil_Star 2007-5-7 10:12
hoho~~,澳元跌到0.811了最后跟贴：0.8190 最后发表：小刚	语阁 2007-5-4 12:15	212613	小刚 2007-5-4 20:03
Hv a look at this one guys.. 最后跟贴：澳指受激励猛飙ING~ 最后发表：Devil_Star	oliverzeno 2007-5-4 12:35	31670	Devil_Star 2007-5-4 12:46
French block Paladin offer 最后跟贴：http://www.ftchinese.com/sc/stor ... =8&loc=HOMEPAGE http://www.ftchinese.com/sc/stor ... 11125&loc=story "尽管自由党领导着澳大利亚联邦政府，但铀矿开采许可权控制在州政府手中，而这些州全部处于工党控制之下。" 看来权力制衡是以耗费资源和浪费机会为代价的。 P.S.在开明的反对党领袖示意下，潜力股无疑，其实Areva就有个超大型工厂在我们公司对面，主要是做transformer和switchgear,应该和Schneider，ABB是竞争对手, 何时整合做核能看来是法国母公司的授意了。有意思，根据楼主的帖子，推测其有反垄断之虞。最后发表：clickle	黑山老妖 2007-4-27 10:31	11638	clickle 2007-4-29 21:43
澳元终于跌了最后跟贴：还会低么？近期？最后发表：zero ...2	凡戈 2007-4-24 15:57	375386	zero 2007-4-28 21:50
在澳洲做中国股市，大家觉得那家的委托系统好？最后跟贴：我以前用的是国联证券的,里面有好几套看图软件呢,只不过速度太慢,有时会连不上,现在换了华泰证券的,不错,网上交易也及时.撤单什么都可以呀.速度很好~~~ 最后发表：爱吃糖的小猪	格美 2007-4-22 18:59	102600	爱吃糖的小猪 2007-4-26 18:20
澳洲第一季度通胀水平意外疲软,加息预期下降,澳元应声下跌最后跟贴：同感，在玩的数字游戏。最后发表：Ningbo	Martin_2F 2007-4-24 17:06	72180	Ningbo 2007-4-25 22:37
人民币自由兑换迈出实质一步天津将试点最后跟贴：目前只是资本项下可竞换,离我们个人的生活还很远. 当初,在单位,为付外币所受之累,真是苦不堪言... 最后发表：cansee	紫水晶 2007-4-8 18:13	82100	cansee 2007-4-24 22:33
请高手翻译和讲解Zinc Co. public offer ! 最后跟贴：谢谢Devil_Star的良言。。最后发表：qhtony13	qhtony13 2007-4-23 23:10	61622	qhtony13 2007-4-24 19:11
阅读:影响外汇市场的五要素最后跟贴：澳币现在好强势最后发表：kingpmp	maplefire 2007-4-23 12:39	31749	kingpmp 2007-4-24 12:42
Zinifex hunts for new chief as Gailey prepares to exit 最后跟贴：http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21609732-643,00.html Zinifex hunts for new chief as Gailey prepares to exit * Andrew Trounson * April 24, 2007 LEAD and zinc giant Zinifex is on an urgent search to replace long-time chief executive Greig Gailey, who yesterday announced he planned to retire before the end of the year. Mr Gailey, 61, is expected to stand down once Zinifex completes a multi-billion-dollar deal to sell its metal smelters and refiners into a joint venture with Belgium-based Umicore in September 2006. The new London-based smelting business, to be named Nyrstar, is expected to be spun off and listed in Europe, with Zinifex tipped to reap around $2 billion in proceeds. The incoming cash, coupled with Zinifex's focus on mining assets, is likely to make it a prime takeover target in a market where new zinc production is thin on the ground. And if Zinifex is to defend any unwanted approach it will need a new CEO in the chair as soon as possible to set out an alternative vision. Mr Gailey's departure could stoke long-running speculation of a possible merger with fellow Melbourne-based miner Oxiana, which is being aggressively expanded by CEO Owen Hegarty. After the Nyrstar float, Zinifex is planning to aggressively grow its mining business, which the board believes is a 3-5 year project. But Mr Gailey couldn't commit to another stint, forcing the board's hand. The company is now scouring the globe to bring in an external replacement. The only obvious internal successor, chief operating officer Paul Fowler, is already leaving to head Nyrstar. "With the establishment of Nyrstar, Zinifex will reach another milestone in its evolution and is poised to commence the next phase in its transformation into a major global mining house," Mr Gailey said. The CEO position is likely to appeal to many mining executives seeking a licence to expand, and money to do it. "Zinifex will be looking for someone to formulate a vision and growth strategy to take the company aggressively forward, and they will have cash to do it from the Umicore acquisition," UBS resources analyst Glyn Lawcock said. Mr Gailey has been the key driver in the resurrection of Zinifex, which, as Pasminco, collapsed in 2001 under the weight to soaring debt, falling prices and out-of-the money hedging. A former senior executive with BP and boss of New Zealand-based Fletcher Challenge, Mr Gailey was headhunted into Pasminco in a late attempt to turn the business around, but it collapsed just four weeks later. Mr Gailey stayed on to nurse the business out of administration, and to refloat it as Zinifex in 2004. Since relisting at $1.80 a share, the company has successfully ridden the commodity boom and is now trading at $15.45 a share, valuing the company at $7.5 billion. Mr Gailey stands to be handsomely rewarded for his efforts. He will be entitled to a termination benefit equivalent to a year's pay, which last year amounted to just over $3 million. There are also share awards. Last fiscal year $6.5 million worth of reward shares vested to Mr Gailey. 最后发表：黑山老妖	黑山老妖 2007-4-24 10:16	01626	黑山老妖 2007-4-24 10:16
Do prices Really Matter? 最后跟贴：This article appeared in the April 2007 ASX Investor Update email newsletter. To subscribe to this newsletter please register with the MyASX section or visit the About MyASX page for past editions and more details. Do prices really matter? Following the hype over the recent global sell-off in shares, Roger Montgomery Managing Director of Clime Asset Management, questions whether analysis of price movements should be the basis of an investor’s decision when purchasing shares. Find out why he believes value investing, through investing in solid businesses is the better option. Price versus value Let’s say you have a passive part interest in an unlisted business. What happens in the stock market would have no impact on either the profitability or the value of your business. World events, economic forecasts, movements in local and international stock markets and commentary by media commentators who confuse price with value would have no impact on your business. It would continue merrily on its way, oblivious to extraneous factors, emotive influences and sentiment. You would be concerned only with its profitability and future prospects. Unless you needed to sell, or received an offer, you are unlikely to spend any time figuring what your interest in the business was worth. The fact that the price of your business is not quoted daily in the media is of no consequence. In the same way that a high price does not increase its value, a low price does not lessen it. Of course, if someone came along and made what appeared to be a generous offer, you might consider selling if it exceeded your estimate of value and your money could be more profitably employed elsewhere. Conversely, if someone made a low-ball offer, you would not automatically assume that the value of your business had declined. Price and value are two different things. Prices are only important when buying or selling. If you buy into sound businesses with superior attributes at a fair price, price aberrations, whether determined by sound judgment or by fear, greed and emotional sentiment, will neither add nor detract from your wealth. This becomes abundantly clear when you draw a straight line between a stocks price at different points of time and superimpose the squiggly lines of a price chart for the same period. While value does not progress smoothly, its determination is based on the factual business performance rather than unrelated extraneous issues that govern the actions of those who unwittingly contribute to the rich forum of opportunity we call the “stock market”. So the next time the market is flooded by uninformed comments don’t get caught up in the hype. It is always worth reflecting on time proven wisdom instead of making an emotionally driven buy or sell investment decision. Stick to finding the great businesses. If you do this and hold onto them for as long as they remain great, you will not doubt ensure that the value of your investments will rise over the years. Value investing is the solution Making knowledgeable investment decisions can have a significant impact on your life. Informed investment decisions can provide you with the financial freedom that few people ever achieve. How does no mortgage and high quality education for your children and an early retirement sound? Despite popular belief, you don’t need to be a genius to become a smart investor. You only need to make a handful of well-informed investment decisions over the course of your entire life to achieve your financial goals. The ability to confidently make your ‘handful’ of sensible decisions can be found by adopting the methodology known as value investing. As an investment philosophy, value investing is not new. It has been around since the early 1930’s when a now well-known professor of investments, Benjamin Graham, articulated the philosophy in his book ‘Security Analysis’, the bible of investment theory. If Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger and Tweedy Browne can generate returns for shareholders in the order of 20% per annum over many decades (effectively doubling their wealth and that of their shareholders every 3.6 years), why should we try anything different? What we find amazing is that even though the valuation approach has produced superior returns for more years than any other investment strategy, the majority of people participating in the stock market choose not to practice the value investing approach. It is estimated that only 5% of all market participants choose to consistently follow Graham’s successful philosophy. Disturbingly, the other 95% of all ‘investors’, including many professional fund managers, have chosen to follow something else. Value investing is not rocket science. It does not require you to have a stratospheric IQ. What you do require, however, is the right temperament and the ability to understand and apply a few sound, time-proven investment principles. Over time, we will teach you such principles and steer you on the right path to becoming a successful value investor. The principles are not set in concrete, nor are they a set of rules that must be strictly adhered to. What they do provide is a superior investment philosophy that acts as a framework within which you can quickly identify good investments, and just as importantly, avoid low-quality businesses. Unfortunately for the value investor, there are many of the latter and not so many of the former. However, by exercising patience and waiting for the right business at the right price, you too can invest your hard earned dollars with a high degree of confidence. For many market participants, the lure of being an ‘active’ investor creates a temptation to check prices daily and trade just as frequently. Unfortunately second-guessing price direction through technical analysis often takes precedence over an assessment of intrinsic value (what the business is actually worth). Speaking with investors over the years reaffirms my belief that many market participants tend to think of shares as an ‘investment’ whose price is likely to be volatile. They forget that their part ownership, no matter how large or small, actually represents an ownership in a less volatile business that has ‘value’. Without an assessment of value, price will dictate your emotions. Emotional buying and selling decisions may or may not end up being bountiful. Consider for a moment the following question: Would you simply pay any price for the whole of a small business, a real estate investment, or maybe an interest bearing security? Of course not! You want to pay the best possible (minimal) price. However it seems that most market participants are quite happy to pay any price for a stock or share in the hope that someone will come along and simply pay more. We call this type of approach the ‘its-going-up’ strategy. I believe this is an extremely risky form of share market participation. Your first lesson: Don’t let anyone fool you into thinking that the stock market is anything but a great big auction arena where many individuals place bids and offers to buy and sell small interests in businesses. In the great auction arena, these small interests are known as stocks or shares. Your goal is to buy shares at attractive prices to build a portfolio of quality businesses, which hopefully you will be able to hold forever. Once you are a part owner, I believe the only time you should ever consider selling your partial interest is when the quality of your business is no longer perceived as being attractive. It’s that simple. If you have consistently made money in the stock market, chances are you bought interests in good businesses and at a price that represented good value, and hopefully you still hold them. On the other hand, if you have ever lost money in the stock market, chances are you bought into an inferior, risk-prone business for which you may have paid too much for the shares or you may have been simply betting on price direction using some other common but weak tool. As a partial owner of any business, commonsense would direct you to consider what likely cash flows, perhaps based on past performance, you would receive over your period of ownership. As investors, it is very important to understand that most businesses exist to generate a high positive financial return to their owners. Over time, businesses that are able to maintain or increase already high rates of profitability and reinvest retained earnings at attractive rates of return, as measured by Return on Equity (ROE), will ultimately increase in value. Over longer periods of time, this rising business value is translated into rising market prices. The bounty however, is never shared equally. So why value investing? Consider this question – can you name another investment strategy that has produced comparable returns over the past 50 years? A mountain of evidence confirms the principles of value investing have provided market-beating returns over long periods. In my eyes, value investing is the way to participate in the great auction arena where your risk is minimised by holding a portfolio of wonderful, quality businesses that you would be proud to call your own. 最后发表：黑山老妖	黑山老妖 2007-4-19 15:58	01704	黑山老妖 2007-4-19 15:58
InvestSmart's Narhex Limited Discount Share Placement Offer 最后跟贴：原帖由黑山老妖于 2007-4-19 11:05 发表 This is just sharing information. Biotech is risky at best. Personally not very interested. But some ppl might have bigger risk appetite. Don't worry mate. I appreciate your information sharing. I just expressed my own feelings. Smart risk is worth taking for me (im in biotech stocks AVX & BTA), but this one to me, is way too risky. 最后发表：Devil_Star	黑山老妖 2007-4-19 10:26	31864	Devil_Star 2007-4-19 12:16
quantas shares 最后跟贴：which forum? what conclusion... 最后发表：galway	黑山老妖 2007-4-17 09:43	11864	galway 2007-4-17 10:21
从20年前的台湾股市看目前超级大牛市! 最后跟贴：支持原创最后发表：西门吹哨	vmaya 2007-4-14 13:18	61975	西门吹哨 2007-4-16 19:58
有在香港市场买港股的么？最后跟贴：在澳洲似乎买卖港股不方便，需要用国内的银行作broker。有人有经验么？HSBC的etrade似乎不提供国际股票。最后发表：galway	galway 2007-4-16 19:04	01465	galway 2007-4-16 19:04
黑山老妖, 请查短消息最后跟贴：many thanks 最后发表：lionguo2006	lionguo2006 2007-4-16 13:22	21573	lionguo2006 2007-4-16 13:46
Platinum IPO - Eureka report interview 最后跟贴：Thanks 最后发表：Mirage	黑山老妖 2007-4-14 10:33	11995	Mirage 2007-4-14 10:59
关于Short Selling 最后跟贴：原帖由 cn_yy 于 2007-4-10 23:56 发表是卖蟹的？不是说他们父子几个的意思吗？其实香港人写剧本真的挺有意思的，香港人说股票被套一般就是叫做了大闸蟹哈哈，很明显你被忽悠了～最后发表：Devil_Star	jinxu_0 2007-4-10 15:15	81961	Devil_Star 2007-4-11 01:37
关于在澳洲炒国内股票的行情软件最后跟贴：免费的同花顺 www.10jqka.com.cn 收费的分析家 www.fxj.com.cn 交易应开户公司而定，很多都已经捆绑了同花顺。最后发表：woodyc	echoxinying 2007-4-8 14:30	72156	woodyc 2007-4-9 23:59
澳洲有没有实盘外汇交易? 最后跟贴：have a look at http://www.ozforex.com.au 最后发表：apatche	maplefire 2007-4-4 11:12	12214	apatche 2007-4-4 12:01
恭喜发财，澳元升至10年新高最后跟贴：等宝宝养好，先学炒菜，然后再去炒汇道理是一样的---要会抄底:si151:si64 [ 本帖最后由 alex1031 于 2007-4-3 16:47 编辑 ] 最后发表：alex1031	alex1031 2007-4-2 18:15	243104	alex1031 2007-4-3 17:45
吃大亏了，请求同胞们帮助！！！最后跟贴：In 2001, the value of one Australian dollar went below 50 US cents for the first time. As of 30th of March, 2007, the Australian dollar was worth 80 US cents. It's the trend, but ......who knows 最后发表：典	michael10 2007-3-26 22:06	273864	典 2007-3-30 10:30
ALERT! 继WESTPOINT后FINCORP也宣布倒闭了！最后跟贴：反正大家要小心点，投资的是没有100%保险的。太好的事情一般都不是真的。最后发表：黑山老妖	Devil_Star 2007-3-26 13:12	82285	黑山老妖 2007-3-28 08:56
现在是否应该把澳币换成人民币呢？最后跟贴：请问这边所谓的钱庄是什么样的机构呀？？？？像在PARAMATTA的中国银行旁边的一个foreign exchange 一样吗？？？？最后发表：michael10	jewelnn 2007-3-23 20:22	82276	michael10 2007-3-27 20:36
美国金融霸权中的"投行思维" 最后跟贴：当今世界，是一个由美国金融霸权主导的世界。在美国这部精密的国家机器精心运作的错综复杂的国际政治经济格局背后，依然能够清晰地看到国际垄断资本的意志。而今，美国感到了中国的“威胁”，于是故伎重演，开始打起“人民币升值”这张牌。当然，这些“伟大的博弈”主要是在经济金融领域里进行的。美国是当今世界霸主。一定程度上，即便是日本、欧洲、抑或崛起中的“金砖四国”，都难以单独与美国分庭抗礼。美国之所以称雄于世界，归根到底是由其强大的金融实力决定的。1944年布雷顿森林体系建立后，美国凭借美元的特殊地位，在全球范围内纵横捭阖、翻云覆雨。虽然美国经历多次冲击，也曾一度处于风雨飘摇之中，但其霸主地位至今依然牢固。原因之一，就是美国是地地道道的“资本运作”高手。换言之，即美国擅长用“投行思维”。美国用投资银行思维方式处理重大国际问题，可谓是得心应手、屡试不爽，总在困境中化险为夷、顺境中乘风破浪。投资银行是指资本市场中提供资本运作服务的金融中介。相对于商业银行，投资银行锐意进取、开拓创新，商业银行则较为保守。前者主营存贷款业务，提供间接金融服务；后者主营证券业务，提供直接金融服务。直接金融的一个特点，就是在信息充分披露条件下投融资双方自担风险。也就是说，投资银行主营业务为“雁过拔毛”，自己较少承担风险。但要将“雁毛”顺利收于囊中，就必须善于“运作”。所谓“资本运作”，本意是指对资本的专业化运营和管理，包括融资和投资两个方面，即“把钱借进来和投出去”的意思；但是投资银行玩的都是人家的钱，一般较少动用自己的真金白银。这里的“运作”，字面上是中性的，不知何时开始有了贬义，这已无从考证。美国是名副其实的投资银行王国。经过200多年的演变，美国拥有当今世界上最发达的以投资银行和资本市场为主导的金融体系。在资本市场上，投资银行是灵魂、核心和枢纽；一定意义上，投资银行也是美国国家机器的灵魂、核心和枢纽。在美国，投资银行作为一个资本密集型和知识密集型产业，不仅云集了最优秀的人才，而且广泛应用各种先进科学方法，例如数学方法、物理学方法、现代系统论和控制论方法等。但奇怪得很，在美国很难找到一本《投资银行学》教科书，原因据说是华尔街宁可口口相传，也不愿意留下文字而泄露商业秘密。的确，华尔街有着太多的鲜为人知的秘密！从华尔街到华盛顿，有着无数的或明或暗的通道，投资银行家们经常在政客和金融家之间，不停地转换角色。通常情况下，美联储主席和财政部长人选，要么来自投资银行，要么来自国防部。现任美联储主席伯南克和财政部部长保尔森就是明证。“今天是行长，明天是部长；今天是部长，明天是行长”———80多年前列宁抨击金融资本全方位渗透于资本主义国家机器时描述的情景，依然是当今金融帝国的真实写照。当今世界，是一个由美国金融霸权主导的世界。在美国这部精密的国家机器精心运作的错综复杂的国际政治经济格局背后，依然能够清晰地看到国际垄断资本的意志。美国长期实行“双赤字”政策，国民储蓄率近乎零，但美国依然是“老子天下第一”。原因很简单，就是美国凭借金融霸主地位，毫不吝惜地消费穷国提供的廉价商品和资本。在全球化旗帜下，国际垄断资本几乎渗透于全球的每一个角落。美国打喷嚏，全球就感冒。因此在一定程度上，美联储主席就是“世界中央银行”行长，美元利率变动牵动着全球金融市场的神经。美国通过世界银行和国际货币基金组织，在全球范围内贯彻其金融战略与政策意图。作为资本运作高手，美国的高明之处在于从来不做亏本生意。然而，一旦昔日盟友出现赶超自己的迹象，美国一定会毫不留情地打压。打压方式有时被掩盖得惟妙惟肖，有时也是赤裸裸的。在1970年代，石油危机对美国产生了巨大冲击，尼克松总统首先选择单方面摧毁布雷顿森林体系，放任美元贬值，让全世界来分担风险。10年间，欧佩克控制的石油价格由3美元1桶，涨到了30美元1桶，同时，由于美国拥有金融霸主地位，黄金价格几乎同步上涨，由35美元1盎司，上涨到400美元1盎司。由于金价与油价产生了“对冲”，结果欧佩克任何好处未捞到，美国什么亏也未吃。到了1980年代，日本发展势头开始令美国恐惧，1985年，美国操纵签署了“广场协议”，迫使日元升值，导致日本陷入10年的“泡沫经济”陷阱。而今，美国感到了中国的“威胁”，于是故伎重演，开始打起“人民币升值”这张牌。当然，这些“伟大的博弈”主要是在经济金融领域里进行的。不过，美国也常有凶相毕露的时候，如美国多次发动中东战争，目的“既不是为了民主，也不是为了自由，而是为了石油。”———真是司马昭之心，路人皆知！改革开放20多年来，我们明白了一个道理：中华民族的伟大复兴，必须依靠建立一个以资本市场为主导的现代金融体系。要发展资本市场，首先必须发展投资银行。温家宝总理在其发表的《全面深化金融改革，促进金融业持续健康安全发展》一文中强调，“大力发展资本市场，构建多层次金融市场体系。”有此认识，实在令人欣慰。（上海证券报）最后发表：紫水晶	紫水晶 2007-3-26 20:07	01419	紫水晶 2007-3-26 20:07
技术分析 VS 基本面分析最后跟贴：原帖由 bululu 于 2007-3-24 18:27 发表只注重技术面那叫投机不叫投资. 不懂。。。最后发表：吉姆.Shaw	jeru 2007-3-9 20:13	243453	吉姆.Shaw 2007-3-24 18:32
2007年百姓理财的“七种武器” 最后跟贴：比美元更低的还有日元最后发表：alex1031	applenet 2007-3-23 15:14	21690	alex1031 2007-3-23 16:38
请教一个澳元浮动因素的问题最后跟贴：经常帐解读贸易经常帐 (Current Account) 为一国收支表上的主要项目，内容记载一个国家与外国包括因为商品、劳务进出口、投资所得、其它商品与劳务所得以及其他因素所产生的资金流出与流入的状况。如果其余额是正数﹙顺差﹚，表示本国的净国外财富或净国外投资增加。如果是负数﹙逆差﹚，表示本国的净国外财富或投资减少。经常帐的内容大致包括五大项： 1、商品，为一国货物的进口及出口。 2、劳务，包括商品进出口有关的运输及保险费、旅客运费及港口费用及本国居民在国外旅行、观光及外国人到本国旅行、观光等的收支。 3、投资所得，指国民购买外国的股票、债券及其它资产所赚取的股利或利息，加上本国对外借款或外国人来本国投资，所产生的利息支出与红利支出等。 4、其它商品、劳务及所得，指前面没有被列入的各项居民与非居民有关劳务与所得的交易，使领馆的支出，以及居民在外国工作获得的报酬，外国政府或国际组织设在本国各种机构的费用等。一般所谓的贸易余额是指前面所提四项的总和。 5、片面转移，指现金或实物的捐赠、救济、一国的对外援助及对国际机构经费的分摊。通常来讲，一国经常帐逆差扩大，该国币值将贬值，顺差扩大，该国货币将升值。在西方国家，通常每月或每季都会公布经常帐数据，但一个月的贸易数据对市场的参考作用并不大，每个季度经过调整的经常帐才较为重要。在 7 、 80 年代，经常帐赤字曾经对外汇市场有着较大的影响，目前这种影响力已经有所消退，但对于美国，经常帐赤字仍然对美元有着较大的影响力。生产者物价指数解读生产者物价指数（ Producer Price Index ），英文缩写为 PPI ，主要用于衡量各种商品在不同生产阶段的价格变化情况，与消费者物价指数一样，通常作为观察通货膨胀水平的重要指标。对于外汇市场而言，市场更加关注的是最终产品 PPI 的月度变化情况。由于食品价格因季节变化加大，而能源价格也经常出现意外波动，为了能更清晰地反映出整体商品的价格变化情况，一般将食品和能源价格的变化剔除，从而形成 “ 核心生产者物价指数 ” ，进一步观察通货膨胀率变化趋势。在美国，美国生产者物价指数的资料搜集由美国劳工局负责，他们以问卷的方式向各大生产厂商搜集资料，搜集的基准月是每个月包含 13 日在内该星期的 2300 种商品的报价，再加权换算成百进位形态，为方便比较，基期定为 1967 年。一般而言，当生产者物价指数增幅很大而且持续加速上升时，该国央行相应的反应是采取加息对策阻止通货膨胀快速上涨，则该国货币升值的可能性增大；反之亦然。产能利用率解读产能利用率 (Capacity Utilization) ，也叫设备利用率，是工业总产出对生产设备的比率，简单的理解，就是实际生产能力到底有多少在运转发挥生产作用。统计该数据时，涵盖的范围包括制造业、矿业、公用事业、耐久商品、非耐久商品、基本金属工业、汽车业及汽油等八个项目。代表上述产业的产能利用程度。当产能利用率超过 95% 以上，代表设备使用率接近全部，通货膨胀的压力将随产能无法应付而急速升高，在市场预期利率可能升高情况下，对一国货币是利多。反之如果产能利用率在 90% 以下，且持续下降，表示设备闲置过多，经济有衰退的现象，在市场预期利率可能降低情况下，对该国货币是利空。市场一般最为重视美国的产能利用数据。在美国，一般每月中旬公布前一个月的数据。耐用品订单解读耐用品订单 (Durable Good Orders) 代表未来一个月内，对不易耗损的物品订购数量，该数据反应了制造业活动情况，就定义而言，订单泛指有意购买、而预期马上交运或在未来交运的商品交易。该统计数据包括，对汽车、飞机等重工业产品和制造业资本用品，其它诸如电器等物品订购情况的统计。由于该统计数据包括了国防部门用品及运输部门用品，这些用品均为高价产品，这两个部门数据变化对整体数据有很大的影响，故市场也较注重扣除国防部门用品及运输部门用品后数据的变化情况。总体而言，若该数据增长，则表示制造业情况有所改善，利好该国货币。反之若降低，则表示制造业出现萎缩，对该国货币利空。市场一般最为重视美国耐用品订单指数。在美国，一般在每月下旬公布前一个月数据。平均小时薪金解读平均小时薪金（ Average Hourly Earnings ）是用平均每小时和每周收入衡量私人非农业部门的工作人员的工资和薪水水平。每小时收入数据反映了每小时基础工资率的变化，并反映了加班的奖金增长情况，平均小时薪金可能较早地反映出行业工资和薪水成本变化趋势与雇用成本指数相辅相成，共同为衡量总劳动成本提供参考。该指标存在着一定的易变性和局限性，但仍然是一个月中关于通货膨胀的头条消息，外汇市场主要关注每月和各年随季节调整的平均每小时和每周工资的变化情况。一般而言，如果预计平均小时薪金能引起利率的上涨，那么每小时工资的迅速上涨对该国货币而言将形成利好刺激，反之亦然。在美国，该指标由联邦储备委员会进行监控。采购经理人指数（ PMI ）解读采购经理人指数（ Purchase Management Index ）是衡量制造业在生产、新订单、商品价格、存货、雇员、订单交货、新出口订单和进口等八个范围的状况。采购经理人指数是以百分比来表示，常以 50% 作为经济强弱的分界点：即当指数高于 50% 时，被解释为经济扩张的讯号。当指数低于 50% ，尤其是非常接近 40% 时，则有经济萧条的忧虑。它是领先指标中一项非常重要的附属指针，市场较为看重美国采购经理人指数，它是美国制造业的体检表，在全美采购经理人指数公布前，还会公布芝加哥采购经理人指数，这是全美采购经理人指数的一部分，市场往往会就芝加哥采购经理人的表现来对全国采购经理人指数做出预期。除了对整体指数的关注外，采购经理人指数中的支付物价指数及收取物价指数也被视为物价指标的一种，而其中的就业指数更常被用来预测失业率及非农业就业人口的表现。就业报告解读就业报告（ The Employment Report ），包括与就业相关的信息，分别由两个独立的调查得出，即企业调查和家庭调查。其中，企业调查提供有关非农业部门的就业情况，平均每小时工作和总小时指数；家庭调查提供有关劳动力、家庭就业和失业率的情况。非农业就业衡量在所有非农工业中有收入人员的数字，如制造业和服务业。就业报告通常被誉为外汇市场能够做出反应的所有经济指标中的 “ 皇冠上的宝石 ” ，它是市场最为敏感的月度经济指标，投资者通常能从中看到众多市场敏感的信息，其中外汇市场特别重视的是随季节性调整的每月就业人数的变化情况。比如，强劲的非农就业情况表明了一个健康的经济状况，并可能预示着更高的利率，而潜在的高利率促使外汇市场更多地推动该国货币价值，反之亦然。 IFO 景气指数解读 IFO 经济景气指数 (IFO Business Climate Index) 是由德国 IFO 研究机构所编制，为观察德国经济状况的重要领先指标。 IFO 是德国经济信息研究所注册协会的英文缩写， 1949 年成立于慕尼黑，是一家公益性的、独立的经济研究所，被称为德国政府智库之一。 IFO 经济景气指数的编制，是对包括制造业、建筑业及零售业等各产业部门每个月均进行调查，每次调查所涵盖的企业家数在 7000 家以上，依企业评估目前的处境状况，以及短期内企业的计划及对未来半年的看法而编制出的指数。由于 IFO 经济景气指数为每月公布讯息，并且调查了企业对未来的看法，而且涵盖的部门范围广，因此在经济走势预测上的参考性较高。 ISM 指数解读 ISM 指数是由美国供应管理协会公布的重要数据，对反映美国经济繁荣度及美元走势均有重要影响。美国供应管理协会（ the Institute for Supply Management ， ISM ）是全球最大、最权威的采购管理、供应管理、物流管理等领域的专业组织。该组织成立于 1915 年，其前身是美国采购管理协会，目前拥有会员 45000 多名、 179 个分会，是全美最受尊崇的专业团体之一。 ISM 指数分为制造业指数和非制造业指数两项。 ISM 供应管理协会制造业指数由一系列分项指数组成，其中以采购经理人指数最具有代表性。该指数是反映制造业在生产、订单、价格、雇员、交货等各方面综合发展状况的晴雨表，通常以 50 为临界点，高于 50 被认为是制造业处于扩张状态，低于 50 则意味着制造业的萎缩，影响经济增长的步伐。 ISM 供应管理协会非制造业指数反映的是美国非制造业商业活动的繁荣程度，当其数值连续位于 50 以上水平时，表明非制造业活动扩张，价格上升，往往预示着整体经济正处于一个扩张状态；反之，当其数值连续位于 50 以下水平时，往往预示着整体经济正处于一个收缩状态。汽车销售解读汽车销售（ Auto Sales ）是消费者支出的重要组成部分，同时能很好地反映出消费者对经济前景的信心。通常，汽车销售情况是我们了解一个国家经济循环强弱情况的第一手资料，早于其他个人消费数据的公布。因此，汽车销售为随后公布的零售额和个人消费支出提供了很好的预示作用，汽车销售额占零售额的 25% 和整个消费总额的 8% 。另外，汽车销售还可以作为预示经济衰退和复苏的早期信号。汽车销售额如果上升，一般预示着该国经济的转好和消费者消费意愿的增强，对该国货币利好，同时可能伴随着该国利率的上升，刺激该国货币汇率上扬。消费者信贷余额解读消费者信贷余额（ Consumer Credit ），包括用于购买商品和服务的将于两个月及两个月以上偿还的家庭贷款。在西方国家，贷款消费是一种很普遍的现象，在购买大宗商品，比如房屋、汽车，或是购买大宗服务，比如接受大学教育等情况下，向银行申请贷款的民众数量会相当多，从而形成消费者信贷余额。外汇市场关注的是随季节调整的超前净信贷余额，一般来讲，消费者信贷余额增加表明消费支出和对经济的乐观情绪增加，这种情形通常产生于经济扩张时期，信贷余额下降表明消费支出减少，并可能伴随着对未来经济活动的悲观情绪。通常来讲，如果消费者信贷余额不出现大幅波动的话，外汇市场对该数据的反应并不强烈。同时，我们不能孤立的解读消费者信贷余额，要结合其他数据综合考察。美联储系统注解美联储（ The Fed ）是根据 1913 年美国国会的一项法案设立的。在美联储成立之前，美国经济所需要的资金和信贷活动都由一个分散化的银行系统来承担。美联储共由 12 家区域性的联邦储备银行构成，每一家区域性银行都有自己的董事会，并各自推举一名代表出任美联储联邦顾问委员会成员，每年在华盛顿进行四次集中会议；而联邦公开市场委员会则由区域性银行控制；货币政策委员会在联储主席的带领下进行货币政策决策工作。每月，美联储货币政策委员会都将召开货币政策会议，对各联储银行收集来的消息和其他相关经济信息进行分析，并对当前和未来的经济形势作出评估，随即决定采用什么方式来配合经济的增长或延缓经济的下滑，包括利率水平的决定。由于美国经济在世界上的主导地位，美联储对国内和国际经济的看法和政策都显得非常重要，对外汇市场常常有较大的影响。日本短观报告解读日本短观报告，日本政府每季会对近一万家企业作未来产业趋势调查，调查企业对短期经济前景的信心，以及对现时与未来经济状况与公司盈利前景的看法。负数结果表示对经济前景感到悲观的公司多于感到乐观的公司，而正数则表示对经济前景感到乐观的公司多于感到悲观的公司。根据历史显示，日本政府每季公布的企业短观报告数据极具代表性，能准确的预测日本未来的经济走势，因此与股市和日元汇率波动有相当的联动性。最后发表：applenet	applenet 2007-3-21 20:27	42018	applenet 2007-3-22 17:01
why smh said"Aussie dollar hits 10-year high"? 最后跟贴：i see i see,thank you happysee... how are you these days?still busy?havent seen you for a long time~~ 最后发表：sh-boy	sh-boy 2007-3-20 13:55	31970	sh-boy 2007-3-20 14:18
我刚在COMMSEC开户了，不知怎么交易？最后跟贴：原帖由 Devil_Star 于 2007-3-20 12:41 发表呵呵，你玩COMSEC竟然不看PDS，上面都写得很清楚的， T+0和T+1先买后卖是做抵消的，不用扣。PDS上面有个表，可以自己算算时间。我好像还不会玩儿commsec，就是买完了，又卖了.然后看了钱，没变，就觉得奇怪，最后发表：newstocker ...2	newstocker 2007-3-8 11:32	365482	newstocker 2007-3-20 13:44
AUD暴跌最后跟贴：Wa! It's over US$0.80 now. 最后发表：黑山老妖 ...2	不会游泳的鱼 2007-3-6 09:20	505944	黑山老妖 2007-3-20 08:52
有拿回600$COMMSEC交易费用的吗最后跟贴：上COMSEC。COM。AU 就可以进行交易了，CHESS就是成为COMSEC机构的一名成员，由他们帮你作后台的证券交易最后发表：good2194	good2194 2007-3-3 21:30	62147	good2194 2007-3-12 00:19
认购IPO，Proposed listing day 是to be advised怎么办最后跟贴：是的，一般这种IPO，第一天就会跌个20％最后发表：买房子啊	hrdkyscp 2007-3-8 19:28	11669	买房子啊 2007-3-8 19:46
本轮股票走低原因最后跟贴：Most useful thing I have read on the yen carry trade lately (from ML fx strategy team) We reproduce some popular client questions: 1. Q: What's the size of the carry trade? A: Nobody knows. 2. Q: Surely its just a matter of time before yen starts depreciating again? After all its rate differential to the high yielders remains high. A: The yen has had the lowest yield in the G10 world since 1993 and has gone up and down during that period. We have tested a filter that says "sell carry trade when rate differentials are narrowing"; that filter gives you a 45% chance you are right, ie it doesn't work. 3. Q: If rate differentials don't matter, then what does? A: Our carry tripod consists of: i/ when low yielders are hiking rates, carry trades unwind with 75% probability ii/ when volatility is rising AND i/ is true, carry trades unwind with 82% probability iii/ when rates go above neutral AND i/ is true, carry trades unwind with 85% probability 4. Q: But the BoJ is only hiking at a very slow pace, why would small rate hikes matter? A: We tested for it, and found the speed of increase in interest rates or volatility does not make a difference. It only matters that low yielders are hiking, not how fast they are hiking. 5. Q: But carry trade always work in the long run, right? A: Wrong. The returns from carry trade strategies come entirely from carry itself, not from spot movements. The Sharpe ratio of such strategies is very poor, ie your risk-adjusted return is very low. With any reasonable stop-loss parameters, you would be stopped out before you earn the carry. Knowing when to get into and exit carry trades is critical. In fact, contrary to popular belief, carry has not been working very well over past year or so. Plot the two most extreme pairs, NZD-JPY and AUD-CHF to see what I mean. 6. Q: I can always get out just before it breaks down. A: Experience of past week shows that you don't get much warning. 7. Q: It's overdone, time to go the other way. A: Unless you think that low-yielding central banks will stop hiking and volatility will go back down, this doesn't make sense to us. 8. Q: But surely the Japanese must be worried by what's going on. A: Not yet. Don't forget that policy makers globally have been warning on the carry trade, excess risk taking, low implied volatility and complacency for a while now. Their hurdle to react is high. For example, just today, Japan's Finance Minister Omi said that he is not worried "on stocks or yen". Why not position your portfolio with the policy makers rather than against them? 9. Q: What will reverse this? A: Surely the wrong question to ask for now? We stay short USD-JPY, long EUR-NZD and long USD-ZAR. Tobias Gehrke Equity Derivative Sales Merrill Lynch International 2 King Edward St London EC1A 1HQ 最后发表：oliverzeno ...2	jeru 2007-3-7 12:02	334277	oliverzeno 2007-3-8 01:00
从国内带钱过来，是带美金好还是澳币好啊？最后跟贴：收到! 谢谢各位. 最后发表：王昀辰	王昀辰 2007-3-7 18:36	42041	王昀辰 2007-3-7 22:05
Please help!!! 最后跟贴：pyramid scheme! it looks like a bloody con to me. 最后发表：Devil_Star	beibei2006 2007-3-6 14:58	51827	Devil_Star 2007-3-6 18:31
有买SMM股票的吗，进来交流一下最后跟贴：SMM和PDN都暴跌14%，美市才跌1%，澳市却跌2。3%，看跌的人占多了，后市不明朗。最后发表：good2194	good2194 2007-2-28 22:57	41934	good2194 2007-3-5 22:55

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