证券外汇今日: 23|主题: 16312

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请问现在才投入炒股...................... 最后跟贴：好的好的~!~ 最后发表：fina	fina 2007-6-2 13:17	31517	fina 2007-6-3 13:47
Gold, Oil, Currencies & Interest Rates 你就别八卦了 - [阅读权限 10]	黑山老妖 2007-5-23 08:55	3118	江上往来人 2007-6-2 16:42
Colin Nicholson: Newsletter 69 最后跟贴：Sector Ratios Question Where do I find the PE ratio for a sector? Answer This data is published in the Australian Financial Review in the weekend edition and in the Monday edition. The table they publish also has the market average PE ratio and dividend yield in it. What Does Defensive Mean? Question In your talk the other night, you said that it is now time to buy more defensive stocks because they are likely to fall less in a bear market. I can’t find a reference to defensive stocks in your books or elsewhere. What do you mean? Answer Defensive in investing is a rather general term. It means roughly the opposite to aggressive or speculative. My main book is called The Aggressive Investor because my approach is aggressive in important respects around timing the market, active management and a focus on mid-cap and small-cap companies that are more risky than slower-moving blue chip companies. For this reason, my investment plan needs to balance its basically aggressive posture with some elements that are more defensive in nature. This has to do with the stocks I select to buy. In The Aggressive Investor, I describe in detail how I go about selecting stocks. The very basics of this I covered the other night when I said it was a time to be more defensive. I suggested that it was the market season in which we should avoid speculative stocks and those laden with debt. Instead I suggested that we should focus on well-managed companies that were still good value. This is what I mean by defensive, in that these companies should generally be less vulnerable to price declines in a bear market. In The Aggressive Investor and again in Hot Stocks, I explain my two models for stock selection – value model stocks and growth model stocks. In both cases I am looking for relatively low PE ratios and relatively high dividend yields. In the case of value model stocks, this means a PE ratio that is significantly lower than the market average and a dividend yield which is significantly higher than the market average. It is not easy to do the same with growth stocks, but I am defensive in that I seek PE ratios that are not too far above the market average and dividend yields that are not too much lower than the market average. Once I find these companies, the job is not complete. I then have a short list for further research and a final decision. In looking for defensive situations I will generally try to avoid cyclical industries like construction and banking. If possible I want the portfolio to be strongly focussed on companies that are in non-cyclical industries and are relatively cheap in value terms. Price Earnings Ratio Question You suggest looking for stocks with a low PE ratio. Yet William O’Neil and Stan Weinstein both warn against buying low PE ratio stocks because they could be weak-inferior stocks. How can we be more certain of good value? Answer I agree entirely with O’Neil and Weinstein. To simply buy low PE ratio stocks is asking for trouble. Stocks can have a low PE ratio for several reasons. One is the obvious – that the market has sold them off (which lowers the PE ratio) because it does not expect that they will repeat their last earnings numbers. However, it can also be because the company or its industry is out of fashion. It can also be because the company has been in some trouble and is still recovering, something the market has not entirely recognised yet in the price. These are the potential gems that we are looking for. Cast your mind back to what I said. I suggested that we look for well-managed companies that were cheap. Cheapness could be found initially by looking for low PE ratios and high dividend yields. However, this is a two-edged sword, because it also finds potential failures which are on the way out. The secret, if there is one, is to look at the charts and use what I teach as Charting 101. Unless the chart is heading upwards to the right hand top corner of the chart, or is breaking out upward from a broad trading range, it is a failure on the way out, or we are too early and should wait for those signs. In other words, use the fundamental ratios to find a group of companies that may be interesting and then use charting to winnow the grain from the chaff. Nothing is foolproof, but this should give you a short-list of stocks to be researched in depth and maybe you will want to build a position in them if they continue to trend upward. This approach is described in detail in my book The Aggressive Investor with many examples and case studies. 最后发表：maplefire	maplefire 2007-6-1 15:55	21170	maplefire 2007-6-1 15:57
国内有些澳元，现在换成人民币如何最后跟贴：人民币升值的步伐加快了，要换就早换。最后发表：hueofwind	vivian 2007-5-17 21:19	31625	hueofwind 2007-6-1 13:51
中国，澳洲，哪边换汇更合算？最后跟贴：找中国银行里的黄牛可能是最便宜了。澳洲换钱差价也不太好。最后发表：黑山老妖	whynot 2007-5-30 21:09	31563	黑山老妖 2007-6-1 10:26
股票打油诗最后跟贴：生不起 , 剖腹一刀五千几 ; 读不起 , 选个学校三万起 ; 住不起 , 一万多元一平米 ; 娶不起 , 没房没车谁嫁你 ? 养不起 , 父母下岗儿下地 ; 病不起 , 药费利润十倍起 ; 炒不起 , 半夜鸡叫一片绿 . 信不起 , 出尔反尔忽悠你！ 1 0 0 0 点放洋人鬼子进来抄底！ 4 3 0 0 点半夜发利空套中华百姓！最后发表：mumu_96	mumu_96 2007-5-31 14:42	01587	mumu_96 2007-5-31 14:42
问个问题最后跟贴：PDS = 产品说明书最后发表：Kingfisher	flypast 2007-5-27 11:08	31413	Kingfisher 2007-5-28 17:42
大家对洪城水业什么看法？最后跟贴：如题。最后发表：aruka	aruka 2007-5-27 20:31	0997	aruka 2007-5-27 20:31
土土地问一下, 想带钱回家最后跟贴：原帖由 ambition 于 2007-5-26 20:53 发表楼上的, 这里的朋友一般哪还有人民币啊. ATM取倒是可以. 不会吧，多的可能没有，几百块人民币总归会有的呀。最后发表：4ever	ambition 2007-5-25 05:19	121687	4ever 2007-5-27 19:03
股市新手请教问题最后跟贴：原帖由 Promise 于 2007-5-24 21:08 发表各路神仙，你们在澳洲炒股用什么软件吗？小女子新手上路，请多多指教。。。：P IncredibleCharts 最后发表：whsg_au	Martin_2F 2007-5-10 10:51	101857	whsg_au 2007-5-26 17:28
TRUenergy 最后跟贴：這個有沒有得玩呀，澳洲市場那麽小最后发表：买房子啊	老杏 2007-5-24 16:01	11294	买房子啊 2007-5-24 16:34
紫金矿业拟10亿元投资海内外矿业--记者赵一蕙最后跟贴：紫金最近很软，不过做个中线还是应该有回报的。最后发表：orange0328	jialiren 2008-11-28 09:09	21346	orange0328 2007-5-24 10:32
Chinese Yuan Band Widens - How Close Are We to A Free Float? 最后跟贴：There is no real floating rate in the world, It is politics. 最后发表：格美	黑山老妖 2007-5-22 20:48	11351	格美 2007-5-23 19:10
真心疼呀,把家里最后的人民币换成澳元最后跟贴：今天已经是6。27了，快点跌吧最后发表：summer-dong ...2	语阁 2007-5-16 17:03	303732	summer-dong 2007-5-23 12:25
SHL - 讨论一下最后跟贴：我觉得这个上下的可能都有，上的机会大一点点。。。如果买进，我的stop loss会在14.5。鸡肋啊。最后发表：黑山老妖	黑山老妖 2007-5-22 11:09	41710	黑山老妖 2007-5-22 11:36
uranium rush 最后跟贴：我是怎么想的最后发表：jfding	jfding 2007-5-21 16:02	21366	jfding 2007-5-22 09:42
A different idea about the moving of superfund 最后跟贴：overseas, property trusts, fixed interest(I doubt??!!), private equity. 最后发表：黑山老妖	Devil_Star 2007-5-21 09:09	31649	黑山老妖 2007-5-21 19:38
我觉得commsec送600块佣金的活动有问题,好象不可信. 最后跟贴：是不是先收后退？Order Estimate 的时候有费用最后发表：西边雨 ...2	一哥 2007-3-4 09:18	594868	西边雨 2007-5-21 11:38
UBS sees trouble from China bubble 最后跟贴：反正我国内的基金打算减持了。。。最后发表：maplefire	黑山老妖 2007-5-18 09:11	61594	maplefire 2007-5-18 16:13
我在国内,急需澳元现汇,怎么办? 最后跟贴：去银行很方便的，直接换的就是现汇，如果数量多，可以直接汇到澳洲银行，手续费也不是很高的。最后发表：maggie_wang	springoz 2007-5-15 17:33	51768	maggie_wang 2007-5-18 10:27
Update on Coles Group takeover saga 最后跟贴：KKR--八十年代横扫垃圾债券MBO市场，名噪一时。却不知“春潮带雨晚来急", 要对coles下手了。最后发表：clickle	黑山老妖 2007-5-12 08:35	21228	clickle 2007-5-15 21:42
Miners maybe targets for re-unionising 最后跟贴：收到～放眼观望吧～最后发表：Devil_Star	黑山老妖 2007-5-12 08:40	11320	Devil_Star 2007-5-12 22:49
有人在用australianstockreport 最后跟贴：我口语也不好，反正是他们求我JOIN，给和不给，主动权在自己手上，怕甚么～最后发表：Devil_Star	jfding 2007-5-8 07:54	111493	Devil_Star 2007-5-11 00:11
大家对这只资源股MONARCH FPO (MON.AX)有么看法最后跟贴：大家对这只资源股MONARCH FPO (MON.AX)有么看法最后发表：cat2cat	cat2cat 2007-5-9 21:31	01522	cat2cat 2007-5-9 21:31
Liquidity boom and looming crisis 最后跟贴：好,在学习最后发表：jfding	黑山老妖 2007-5-9 09:56	11314	jfding 2007-5-9 14:23
AUD rebound over 0.83 again 最后跟贴：美国可能要减息最后发表：不会游泳的鱼	ingeer 2007-5-8 16:48	11190	不会游泳的鱼 2007-5-8 17:06
看这个论坛这么火爆，也忍不住进来玩玩最后跟贴：多谢devil和老妖！最后发表：zcflying	zcflying 2007-5-7 13:48	141805	zcflying 2007-5-8 10:31
$11.1 billion Qantas grab fails 最后跟贴：I've never believed the QAN deal would go anywhere. It's a national brand, and so much resistance from both inside and outside of the companies. 最后发表：Devil_Star	austeps_join 2007-5-4 21:25	121561	Devil_Star 2007-5-7 09:12
hoho~~,澳元跌到0.811了最后跟贴：0.8190 最后发表：小刚	语阁 2007-5-4 11:15	212191	小刚 2007-5-4 19:03
Hv a look at this one guys.. 最后跟贴：澳指受激励猛飙ING~ 最后发表：Devil_Star	oliverzeno 2007-5-4 11:35	31365	Devil_Star 2007-5-4 11:46
French block Paladin offer 最后跟贴：http://www.ftchinese.com/sc/stor ... =8&loc=HOMEPAGE http://www.ftchinese.com/sc/stor ... 11125&loc=story "尽管自由党领导着澳大利亚联邦政府，但铀矿开采许可权控制在州政府手中，而这些州全部处于工党控制之下。" 看来权力制衡是以耗费资源和浪费机会为代价的。 P.S.在开明的反对党领袖示意下，潜力股无疑，其实Areva就有个超大型工厂在我们公司对面，主要是做transformer和switchgear,应该和Schneider，ABB是竞争对手, 何时整合做核能看来是法国母公司的授意了。有意思，根据楼主的帖子，推测其有反垄断之虞。最后发表：clickle	黑山老妖 2007-4-27 09:31	11308	clickle 2007-4-29 20:43
澳元终于跌了最后跟贴：还会低么？近期？最后发表：zero ...2	凡戈 2007-4-24 14:57	374368	zero 2007-4-28 20:50
在澳洲做中国股市，大家觉得那家的委托系统好？最后跟贴：我以前用的是国联证券的,里面有好几套看图软件呢,只不过速度太慢,有时会连不上,现在换了华泰证券的,不错,网上交易也及时.撤单什么都可以呀.速度很好~~~ 最后发表：爱吃糖的小猪	格美 2007-4-22 17:59	102071	爱吃糖的小猪 2007-4-26 17:20
澳洲第一季度通胀水平意外疲软,加息预期下降,澳元应声下跌最后跟贴：同感，在玩的数字游戏。最后发表：Ningbo	Martin_2F 2007-4-24 16:06	71769	Ningbo 2007-4-25 21:37
人民币自由兑换迈出实质一步天津将试点最后跟贴：目前只是资本项下可竞换,离我们个人的生活还很远. 当初,在单位,为付外币所受之累,真是苦不堪言... 最后发表：cansee	紫水晶 2007-4-8 17:13	81724	cansee 2007-4-24 21:33
请高手翻译和讲解Zinc Co. public offer ! 最后跟贴：谢谢Devil_Star的良言。。最后发表：qhtony13	qhtony13 2007-4-23 22:10	61322	qhtony13 2007-4-24 18:11
阅读:影响外汇市场的五要素最后跟贴：澳币现在好强势最后发表：kingpmp	maplefire 2007-4-23 11:39	31430	kingpmp 2007-4-24 11:42
Zinifex hunts for new chief as Gailey prepares to exit 最后跟贴：http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21609732-643,00.html Zinifex hunts for new chief as Gailey prepares to exit * Andrew Trounson * April 24, 2007 LEAD and zinc giant Zinifex is on an urgent search to replace long-time chief executive Greig Gailey, who yesterday announced he planned to retire before the end of the year. Mr Gailey, 61, is expected to stand down once Zinifex completes a multi-billion-dollar deal to sell its metal smelters and refiners into a joint venture with Belgium-based Umicore in September 2006. The new London-based smelting business, to be named Nyrstar, is expected to be spun off and listed in Europe, with Zinifex tipped to reap around $2 billion in proceeds. The incoming cash, coupled with Zinifex's focus on mining assets, is likely to make it a prime takeover target in a market where new zinc production is thin on the ground. And if Zinifex is to defend any unwanted approach it will need a new CEO in the chair as soon as possible to set out an alternative vision. Mr Gailey's departure could stoke long-running speculation of a possible merger with fellow Melbourne-based miner Oxiana, which is being aggressively expanded by CEO Owen Hegarty. After the Nyrstar float, Zinifex is planning to aggressively grow its mining business, which the board believes is a 3-5 year project. But Mr Gailey couldn't commit to another stint, forcing the board's hand. The company is now scouring the globe to bring in an external replacement. The only obvious internal successor, chief operating officer Paul Fowler, is already leaving to head Nyrstar. "With the establishment of Nyrstar, Zinifex will reach another milestone in its evolution and is poised to commence the next phase in its transformation into a major global mining house," Mr Gailey said. The CEO position is likely to appeal to many mining executives seeking a licence to expand, and money to do it. "Zinifex will be looking for someone to formulate a vision and growth strategy to take the company aggressively forward, and they will have cash to do it from the Umicore acquisition," UBS resources analyst Glyn Lawcock said. Mr Gailey has been the key driver in the resurrection of Zinifex, which, as Pasminco, collapsed in 2001 under the weight to soaring debt, falling prices and out-of-the money hedging. A former senior executive with BP and boss of New Zealand-based Fletcher Challenge, Mr Gailey was headhunted into Pasminco in a late attempt to turn the business around, but it collapsed just four weeks later. Mr Gailey stayed on to nurse the business out of administration, and to refloat it as Zinifex in 2004. Since relisting at $1.80 a share, the company has successfully ridden the commodity boom and is now trading at $15.45 a share, valuing the company at $7.5 billion. Mr Gailey stands to be handsomely rewarded for his efforts. He will be entitled to a termination benefit equivalent to a year's pay, which last year amounted to just over $3 million. There are also share awards. Last fiscal year $6.5 million worth of reward shares vested to Mr Gailey. 最后发表：黑山老妖	黑山老妖 2007-4-24 09:16	01349	黑山老妖 2007-4-24 09:16
Do prices Really Matter? 最后跟贴：This article appeared in the April 2007 ASX Investor Update email newsletter. To subscribe to this newsletter please register with the MyASX section or visit the About MyASX page for past editions and more details. Do prices really matter? Following the hype over the recent global sell-off in shares, Roger Montgomery Managing Director of Clime Asset Management, questions whether analysis of price movements should be the basis of an investor’s decision when purchasing shares. Find out why he believes value investing, through investing in solid businesses is the better option. Price versus value Let’s say you have a passive part interest in an unlisted business. What happens in the stock market would have no impact on either the profitability or the value of your business. World events, economic forecasts, movements in local and international stock markets and commentary by media commentators who confuse price with value would have no impact on your business. It would continue merrily on its way, oblivious to extraneous factors, emotive influences and sentiment. You would be concerned only with its profitability and future prospects. Unless you needed to sell, or received an offer, you are unlikely to spend any time figuring what your interest in the business was worth. The fact that the price of your business is not quoted daily in the media is of no consequence. In the same way that a high price does not increase its value, a low price does not lessen it. Of course, if someone came along and made what appeared to be a generous offer, you might consider selling if it exceeded your estimate of value and your money could be more profitably employed elsewhere. Conversely, if someone made a low-ball offer, you would not automatically assume that the value of your business had declined. Price and value are two different things. Prices are only important when buying or selling. If you buy into sound businesses with superior attributes at a fair price, price aberrations, whether determined by sound judgment or by fear, greed and emotional sentiment, will neither add nor detract from your wealth. This becomes abundantly clear when you draw a straight line between a stocks price at different points of time and superimpose the squiggly lines of a price chart for the same period. While value does not progress smoothly, its determination is based on the factual business performance rather than unrelated extraneous issues that govern the actions of those who unwittingly contribute to the rich forum of opportunity we call the “stock market”. So the next time the market is flooded by uninformed comments don’t get caught up in the hype. It is always worth reflecting on time proven wisdom instead of making an emotionally driven buy or sell investment decision. Stick to finding the great businesses. If you do this and hold onto them for as long as they remain great, you will not doubt ensure that the value of your investments will rise over the years. Value investing is the solution Making knowledgeable investment decisions can have a significant impact on your life. Informed investment decisions can provide you with the financial freedom that few people ever achieve. How does no mortgage and high quality education for your children and an early retirement sound? Despite popular belief, you don’t need to be a genius to become a smart investor. You only need to make a handful of well-informed investment decisions over the course of your entire life to achieve your financial goals. The ability to confidently make your ‘handful’ of sensible decisions can be found by adopting the methodology known as value investing. As an investment philosophy, value investing is not new. It has been around since the early 1930’s when a now well-known professor of investments, Benjamin Graham, articulated the philosophy in his book ‘Security Analysis’, the bible of investment theory. If Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger and Tweedy Browne can generate returns for shareholders in the order of 20% per annum over many decades (effectively doubling their wealth and that of their shareholders every 3.6 years), why should we try anything different? What we find amazing is that even though the valuation approach has produced superior returns for more years than any other investment strategy, the majority of people participating in the stock market choose not to practice the value investing approach. It is estimated that only 5% of all market participants choose to consistently follow Graham’s successful philosophy. Disturbingly, the other 95% of all ‘investors’, including many professional fund managers, have chosen to follow something else. Value investing is not rocket science. It does not require you to have a stratospheric IQ. What you do require, however, is the right temperament and the ability to understand and apply a few sound, time-proven investment principles. Over time, we will teach you such principles and steer you on the right path to becoming a successful value investor. The principles are not set in concrete, nor are they a set of rules that must be strictly adhered to. What they do provide is a superior investment philosophy that acts as a framework within which you can quickly identify good investments, and just as importantly, avoid low-quality businesses. Unfortunately for the value investor, there are many of the latter and not so many of the former. However, by exercising patience and waiting for the right business at the right price, you too can invest your hard earned dollars with a high degree of confidence. For many market participants, the lure of being an ‘active’ investor creates a temptation to check prices daily and trade just as frequently. Unfortunately second-guessing price direction through technical analysis often takes precedence over an assessment of intrinsic value (what the business is actually worth). Speaking with investors over the years reaffirms my belief that many market participants tend to think of shares as an ‘investment’ whose price is likely to be volatile. They forget that their part ownership, no matter how large or small, actually represents an ownership in a less volatile business that has ‘value’. Without an assessment of value, price will dictate your emotions. Emotional buying and selling decisions may or may not end up being bountiful. Consider for a moment the following question: Would you simply pay any price for the whole of a small business, a real estate investment, or maybe an interest bearing security? Of course not! You want to pay the best possible (minimal) price. However it seems that most market participants are quite happy to pay any price for a stock or share in the hope that someone will come along and simply pay more. We call this type of approach the ‘its-going-up’ strategy. I believe this is an extremely risky form of share market participation. Your first lesson: Don’t let anyone fool you into thinking that the stock market is anything but a great big auction arena where many individuals place bids and offers to buy and sell small interests in businesses. In the great auction arena, these small interests are known as stocks or shares. Your goal is to buy shares at attractive prices to build a portfolio of quality businesses, which hopefully you will be able to hold forever. Once you are a part owner, I believe the only time you should ever consider selling your partial interest is when the quality of your business is no longer perceived as being attractive. It’s that simple. If you have consistently made money in the stock market, chances are you bought interests in good businesses and at a price that represented good value, and hopefully you still hold them. On the other hand, if you have ever lost money in the stock market, chances are you bought into an inferior, risk-prone business for which you may have paid too much for the shares or you may have been simply betting on price direction using some other common but weak tool. As a partial owner of any business, commonsense would direct you to consider what likely cash flows, perhaps based on past performance, you would receive over your period of ownership. As investors, it is very important to understand that most businesses exist to generate a high positive financial return to their owners. Over time, businesses that are able to maintain or increase already high rates of profitability and reinvest retained earnings at attractive rates of return, as measured by Return on Equity (ROE), will ultimately increase in value. Over longer periods of time, this rising business value is translated into rising market prices. The bounty however, is never shared equally. So why value investing? Consider this question – can you name another investment strategy that has produced comparable returns over the past 50 years? A mountain of evidence confirms the principles of value investing have provided market-beating returns over long periods. In my eyes, value investing is the way to participate in the great auction arena where your risk is minimised by holding a portfolio of wonderful, quality businesses that you would be proud to call your own. 最后发表：黑山老妖	黑山老妖 2007-4-19 14:58	01452	黑山老妖 2007-4-19 14:58
InvestSmart's Narhex Limited Discount Share Placement Offer 最后跟贴：原帖由黑山老妖于 2007-4-19 11:05 发表 This is just sharing information. Biotech is risky at best. Personally not very interested. But some ppl might have bigger risk appetite. Don't worry mate. I appreciate your information sharing. I just expressed my own feelings. Smart risk is worth taking for me (im in biotech stocks AVX & BTA), but this one to me, is way too risky. 最后发表：Devil_Star	黑山老妖 2007-4-19 09:26	31507	Devil_Star 2007-4-19 11:16

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