证券外汇今日: 5|主题: 16587

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Peak Oil’s Investment Implications 最后跟贴：looking at this presentation interesting http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/fi ... nvestor%20Lunch.pdf 最后发表：吉姆.Shaw	吉姆.Shaw 2008-3-25 22:05	01601	吉姆.Shaw 2008-3-25 22:05
请教风险厌恶情绪是指什么？最后跟贴：就是讨厌波动，讨厌风险的感觉。最后发表：clur	Poweregg 2008-3-23 12:13	11197	clur 2008-3-23 12:17
救市不如松绑最后跟贴：原帖由 4ever 于 2008-3-20 17:46 发表等大家都跑路了，底部就到来了底部不敢说，最近反弹回上4000点的可能性很大最后发表：西边雨	油花生 2008-3-20 15:08	61236	西边雨 2008-3-20 18:01
未雨绸谬 - 如何抓住这次机会最后跟贴：public listed shell company 最后发表：smallpig1 ...2	黑山老妖 2008-3-18 13:11	343427	smallpig1 2008-3-20 16:21
Commsec的promotion 最后跟贴：亏了，上周五申请的。结果周一出来promotion 最后发表：hxsh2000	sick 2008-3-18 13:33	11373	hxsh2000 2008-3-19 22:59
市场期望布什明确拯救美元意愿最后跟贴：有啥动作是针对中国的？最后发表：flyspirit	紫水晶 2008-3-13 13:09	81334	flyspirit 2008-3-19 12:49
Queen's Bohemian Rhapsody - Sub Prime Style 最后跟贴：Queen's Bohemian Rhapsody - Sub Prime Style Is this the real price? Is this just fantasy? Financial landslide No escape from reality Open your eyes And look at your buys and see. I'm now a poor boy High-yielding casualty Because I bought it high, watched it blow Rating high, value low Any way the Fed goes Doesn't really matter to me, to me Mama - just killed my fund Quoted CDO's instead Pulled the trigger, now it's dead Mama - I had just begun These CDO's have blown it all away Mama - oooh I still wanna buy I sometimes wish I'd never left Goldman at all. I see a little silhouette of a Fed Bernanke! Bernanke! Can you save the whole market? Monolines and munis - very very frightening me! Super senior, super senior Super senior CDO - magnifico I'm long of subprime, nobody loves me He's long of subprime CDO fantasy Spare the margin call you monstrous PB! Easy come easy go, will you let me go? Peloton! No - we will not let you go - let him go Peloton! We will not let you go - let him go Peloton! We will not let you go - let me go Will not let you go - let me go (never) Never let you go - let me go Never let me go - ooo Oh mama mia, mama mia, mama mia let me go S& had the devil put aside for me For me, for me, for me So you think you can fund me and spit in my eye? And then margin call me and leave me to die Oh PB - can't do this to me PB Just gotta get out - just gotta get right outta here Ooh yeah, ooh yeah No price really matters No liquidity Nothing really matters - no price really matters to me Any way the Fed goes..... 最后发表：Anson	Anson 2008-3-19 11:59	01293	Anson 2008-3-19 11:59
摩根大通拯救贝尔斯登最后跟贴：谁买的这个股票，真是吐血吐S了。。。最后发表：飞行	大飞熊 2008-3-18 10:32	31300	飞行 2008-3-19 01:08
Do i still want them? Fxxk.. 最后跟贴：原帖由黑山老妖于 2008-3-18 09:00 发表 Should have shorted it. "SHOULD HAVE"这两个词，我都不记得对自己说过多少次了～最后发表：Devil_Star	oliverzeno 2008-3-15 01:10	71905	Devil_Star 2008-3-18 21:03
美联储下调贴现率25个基点至3.25%; 批准摩根大通收购贝尔斯登最后跟贴：美緊急降貼現率亞股、美股期指重挫美元連破底 2008/03/17 11:57 中央社（中央社台北2008年3月17日電）根據彭博社報導，受美聯準會緊急調降貼現率1碼與摩根大通銀行 (JPM) 同意以每股2美元收購貝爾斯登 (BSC) 等消息影響，亞股、美股期指重挫，美元連貶破底，債券一枝獨秀走高。亞洲股市今天全面重挫，澳洲國民銀行 (NAB) 與日本三菱日聯金融集團 (8306) 領跌。香港恆生指數重挫5%，東證指數大跌4%。美元兌歐元貶至歷史低點，兌日圓貶破96日圓，至12年低點。亞洲盤金價則升抵歷史高點。聯準會今天在亞洲金融市場開盤前，宣佈緊急調降貼現率1碼至3.25%，防止金融市場進一步崩盤。在此同時，摩根大通也宣佈以大約2.4億美元，不到貝爾斯登上週市值的十分之一，低價買下貝爾斯登。聯準會將協助融資金援貝爾斯登。聯準會閃電宣佈調降貼現率，以確保市場正常運作，美元兌日圓聞訊一度貶至95.76日圓兌1美元，創1995年8月以來低點。日本10年公債漲升，殖利率下跌5個基點，至1.21%。東京法國巴黎銀行信用專家Peggy Furusaka表示，情況像滾雪球般，越滾越大。美國是關鍵，是震央所在。台北時間10：54，摩根士丹利資本國際 (MSCI)亞太指數挫2.2%，報133.01。日經225指數重挫4.2%，澳洲S&/ASX指數重挫2.8%，南韓Kospi指數亦大跌3.2%。 Rogers Investment Advisors執行長Ed Rogers指出，協助摩根大通收購貝爾斯登，就像在病人亟需手術時，只給他OK繃。後患無窮。標準普爾500指數6月期指挫2.9%。亞洲金融股今天全面中箭落馬，澳洲最大銀行澳洲國民銀行大跌5.5%，至26.13澳元。日本市值最大銀行三菱日聯金融集團重挫4.2%，報794日圓。南韓第三大金融服務公司Woori Finance Holdings Co.重挫4.8%，報16000韓元。東京瑞穗投資人證券公司經理Takero Inaizumi指出，每股2美元的收購價凸顯出貝爾斯登有多接近破產邊緣，引發美國其他金融銀行也可能破產的疑慮。貝爾斯登上週五收盤單日暴跌47%，收在每股30美元。日立製作所宣佈3月底為止本會計年度由盈轉虧，股價聞訊大跌8.5%，報621日圓。全球第二大消費電器製造商新力重挫5.5%，報3970日圓。野村控股下修新力投資評等，認為日圓兌美元升破100日圓，將抑制其獲利表現。最后发表：calvi	calvi 2008-3-17 14:22	31103	calvi 2008-3-17 16:23
最近中国股市持续阴跌为那般？最后跟贴：不算最近吧从去年11月份开始的下跌行情还没有结束基本上大盘就是要跌的什么时候结束不清楚我觉得要等周线收在5100以上，才算缓解会有反弹啦，不要勉强至于政治原因只是一部分影响，很难说清楚有多重要最后发表：北风	OZWorker 2008-3-14 13:43	11318	北风 2008-3-14 14:05
Sayorana Susquehanna。。最后跟贴：So cool! 最后发表：Devil_Star	oliverzeno 2008-3-13 10:58	31717	Devil_Star 2008-3-13 22:23
请问各位是如何系统操作国内证券的？最后跟贴：谢谢两位的回复，解决了一个大问题。我用的是国元证券，不能确定是否有web交易接口买卖呢，刚刚找到了web交易了。 [ 本帖最后由 benben 于 2008-3-13 19:37 编辑 ] 最后发表：benben	benben 2008-3-13 18:08	31315	benben 2008-3-13 19:15
请哪位老大指点一下，云南白药这个股如何？最后跟贴：偶不是老大哈，但它的趋势不明朗，等明朗了再决定比较好。最后发表：沅	lsyca 2008-3-5 18:10	11112	沅 2008-3-11 23:15
关于"印花税"的笑话(转的) 最后跟贴：最后发表：luyq	安远翔 2008-3-11 22:14	11299	luyq 2008-3-11 22:23
about everforex ( hui lian ) 最后跟贴：I have exchanged several thousands of AUD with them already. Once exchange from AUD to RMB and once from AUD to TWD. They are quite good. Their exchange rate is quite high and you can check their website for exchange rate. They only charge AUD 15 for transaction fee. 最后发表：Shish	lyao 2008-3-9 00:43	12386	Shish 2008-3-10 20:19
Aussie 3 yrs swap rate.. 最后跟贴：Rt.. [ 本帖最后由 oliverzeno 于 2008-3-10 13:42 编辑 ] 最后发表：oliverzeno	oliverzeno 2008-3-10 13:40	01484	oliverzeno 2008-3-10 13:40
基金盈利了，可以短期操作吗最后跟贴：原帖由 Devil_Star 于 2008-1-30 18:20 发表澳洲炒基金的人很少，进出费用太高，要炒的话还不如跟着基金买股票。那是不是说买了基金就放在那里不看了，等3，5年或10年翻几番后再说。最后发表：keke	wawa 2008-1-30 12:31	101628	keke 2008-3-8 00:14
etrade的一个promotion 最后跟贴：原帖由 holly 于 2008-3-5 20:50 发表那边兔子说手续费很贵，一买一卖就60－70块，还有如果多久不用也会扣费。我不打算弄了。那我也算了。我就想买点儿基金，好没有搞清楚怎么才能买呢。最后发表：keke	OneLeaf 2008-2-22 21:05	31573	keke 2008-3-6 22:42
新手如何进入澳洲股票市场？最后跟贴：有没有国内那样的分析系统呢？:o 最后发表：千秋舆论	木偶先生 2008-2-4 11:12	102287	千秋舆论 2008-3-6 16:44
ZFX - Zinifex Limited 你就别八卦了 - [阅读权限 10]	chenzy0513 2007-9-12 14:19	24287	买房子啊 2008-3-6 06:38
弱弱的问搂主几个问题最后跟贴：哈哈，对不起！打错拉，是版主！谢谢大家！！最后发表：terry11	terry11 2008-3-5 20:10	41335	terry11 2008-3-5 21:51
不要投资自己不理解的东西。。。最后跟贴：Never believe in sh1ts.. --------------------------------------------------- The world sux, full of sh1ts.. 最后发表：oliverzeno	黑山老妖 2008-3-3 09:18	71612	oliverzeno 2008-3-5 15:22
000998 - 隆平高科最后跟贴：2008年3月5日星期三两会召开，温总理正在做政府工作报告，特别提到农业问题，要加强农业基础建设，促进农业发展和农民增收，推进社会主义新农村建设，突出抓好三件事：（1）是大力发展粮食生产；（2）是加强农业基础设施建设（3）是拓宽农民增收渠道。今年中央财政安排三农支出5625亿元比上年增加1307亿....... 农业股借记开始疯狂。。。 000998隆平高科更是连续大阳，创出新高！最后发表：Foreveryoung	Foreveryoung 2007-9-10 13:32	192218	Foreveryoung 2008-3-5 14:10
000627 - 天茂集团最后跟贴：眼红啊~~~~~~~~~ 最后发表：黑黑	Foreveryoung 2007-10-19 16:00	232538	黑黑 2008-3-5 14:06
十大金股之----生益科技600183 最后跟贴：[2008-03-04](600183)"生益科技"公布有限售条件的流通股上市公告广东生益科技股份有限公司本次有限售条件的流通股135516427股将于2008 年3月10日起上市流通. 业绩没有想象的好，退税率上调又迟迟没有消息，看来是看走眼了，算了，停止跟踪。最后发表：油花生	油花生 2007-12-21 21:56	222279	油花生 2008-3-5 02:52
那间换汇公司比较好最后跟贴：汇联；无敌牛的公司最后发表：魔头	lyao 2008-3-4 22:58	21584	魔头 2008-3-4 23:37
600400 - 红豆生南国此物最相思最后跟贴：2008年3月4日星期二早盘10点，600400红豆股份快速拉起，创出11.96元的本轮牛市新高，似有加速上扬的趋势...... 最后发表：Foreveryoung	Foreveryoung 2008-2-21 16:19	41306	Foreveryoung 2008-3-4 14:05
AMP - AMP Limited 你就别八卦了 - [阅读权限 10]	黑山老妖 2007-9-2 15:33	6242	radar1016 2008-3-4 13:08
巴菲特Berkshire Hathaway Inc的2007年度至股东信最后跟贴：如果再给个坐垫，就更好了最后发表：flyspirit	黑山老妖 2008-3-3 21:56	51428	flyspirit 2008-3-4 08:48
滞胀和美联储最后跟贴：The classic definition of stagflation is a period of high and rising inflation, which coincides with a recession or very slow growth. Let's look at 10 recent items which have come across my screen, which I think leave little doubt that we are in a recession. (It could just as easily have been 20, but I think 10 are enough to prove the point.) In no particular order: After hovering above 50 in recent months, the Chicago ISM number dropped sharply to 44.5 in February, notching its lowest reading since December 2001 and coming in well below expectations. This brings this survey in line with the disastrous services survey of last month. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for the United States came in at 70.8. This is the lowest reading for the index in 16 years. "The New York City Purchasing Manager's Survey fell for the second consecutive month to 427.7 in February. The current conditions index fell to 43.4, down from 47.9 in January. The six-month outlook index was below 50 for the second consecutive month for the first time in the survey's history; at 47.5 it was down from 70 in February of 2007. The worsening conditions reflect rising prices coupled with slower job growth and layoffs in financial services, as well as tightening credit conditions and higher unemployment." (economy.com) The dollar hit an all-time low against the euro and fell this week against nearly every currency in the world, except Zimbabwe's. And with inflation running there at 100,000%, I think we will have at least one currency against which we will stay strong. As an aside, and as I wrote in my annual forecast, I think we are seeing a top forming on the dollar against the euro over the next few months, but the dollar will continue to fall against Asian currencies. Oil is over $101 a barrel, and rising energy prices act as a tax on consumers, who have less available to spend on other items To add insult to injury, much of that money is sent to foreign countries that are hostile to the US. Of course, we should be grateful that some of the countries recycle those dollars back to the US, buying large positions in our major banks and keeping them from going bankrupt. Home prices continue to fall and home construction is slowing dramatically, even while the available supply of new homes rises to all-time high. Foreclosures are running at record levels and rising everywhere. And everywhere there are "foreclosure tours" as real estate agents charter buses to take prospective buyers to homes which can be bought very cheaply. The number of vacant homes is now over 2,000,000. There is no sign of a bottom in the housing markets. The inventory of unsold homes continues to rise, and is now at almost a 10-month supply. Commercial real estate construction has held up well, but there are clear signs this is about to come to an end, as lending for commercial real estate is becoming harder to get. Indexes which track commercial real estate are softening and commercial real estate credit default swap prices are soaring. Look at the next chart. It shows that prices for credit default swaps have almost tripled in the last four months for highly rated investment-grade commercial paper. I can't do the math quickly, but the back-of-my-napkin analysis of CDS rates for the lowest-quality commercial paper (junk bond levels) suggests default rates approaching 50%. Only in a major depression of biblical proportions could we expect to see something like that. But it means the securitization market for commercial mortgages is drying up, which means available capital for new construction is going to be much harder to find. This is going to be a drag on growth in the coming quarters. Personal income for the average US consumer rose by the same amount as inflation, around 0.4%, and with rising energy and food costs (which we will look at later) it is no wonder that retail sales are down and falling. The savings rate is still negative, which means consumers are using savings to maintain their consumption. Jobless claims continue to climb toward recessionary levels. Remember that unemployment is a lagging indicator. Jobs are one of the last things to fall in a recession, as employers are reluctant to cut back but then begin to do so more rapidly as it becomes clear we are in a recession and not just a temporary slowdown. The index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to plunge, and is not far away from levels last seen in 2001. Such a drop by the LEI has always been accompanied by a recession. And finally, let's read a quick note from uber-bull and friend Louis Navellier that just hit my inbox: "At the beginning of the week we hoped the market would stage a fundamentally-led, broad-based rally after the monoline insurance companies, namely Ambac and MBIA, were able to keep their triple-A ratings. Unfortunately, a healthy rally did not unfold. Instead, the markets rallied briefly, but with junk leading the way. It was basically another short-covering rally that evaporated later in the week. The problems affecting this market are running deeper than expected. Credit-related losses are still unraveling, the housing market is still free-falling, consumer spending has stalled, commodity prices are hitting new highs, manufacturing appears to be contracting, and overall GDP growth is skidding." Even Art Laffer says we are in recession. Amazing. Only Bernanke and Bush think we are simply in a slowing economy. And for political reasons they clearly cannot use the "R" word. Enough already. I think that should establish that if we are not in a recession, it certainly looks and feel like one. Now let's look at the other condition for stagflation: inflation. Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation? The inflation numbers for January were high. I reproduce a table from www.economy.com, which is one of my favorite sources for all sorts of data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in January, which means a rise of 4.4% over the last 12 months. If you annualize the 3-month trend, it is 6.8%. By the way, that 3-month average is a useful tool for discerning trends, so the trend in inflation is not good. Just last August, annual inflation was 1.9%, including food and energy. Notice the rise since then. Also notice the rise in core inflation (2.5%) and the 3-month trend of 3.1%. This is clearly above the Fed's comfort zone of 2%, although good friend Paul McCulley makes a good case that the comfort zone should be higher. We all know about energy prices. My assistant fills up my car about once a week, and yesterday she came in and said, "We just set a record for the amount of money spent on filling your tank: $75." I don't have that long a commute, but it is clear that a two-car commuting family making a combined $50,000 could easily be spending 10% of their net income on gas. "Oil prices reached a new record high this week and traded consistently above the $100 per barrel mark. The price of West Texas Intermediate closed at $102.6 per barrel on Thursday, a new nominal high. Brent crude--used as a benchmark in Europe and Asia--reached $101.3 per barrel on the same day. Adjusted for inflation, oil has still not matched the high set in April 1980. A price of $104 per barrel for WTI would break the 1980 inflation-adjusted record. This could happen soon, given the bullish trend of the last few days." (Dismal Scientist) If prices stay at current levels through April, gasoline will be approaching $4 a gallon and it will cost $100 to fill my gas tank. Ouch. You can bet that will make the current downturn much worse. Let's turn to food. Over the past year, the All Farm Products Index and the Food Commodities Index both increased 13%. And this is showing up in the grocery store. Much of the growth in Wal-Mart sales is actually from rising food prices. The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again Bernanke practically promised more rate cuts at this week's Congressional hearings. The market is pricing in at least another 1% lower Fed funds rate within six months. I think it will be sooner. This is not a Fed that will react to the crisis in the markets by going at a slow 25-basis-point cut per meeting. If there is only a 25-basis-point cut at the next meeting in March, the stock market will throw up. But how can they cut if inflation is high and rising? Bernanke and Kohn made it clear that the think the #1 task right now is to fight the recession/slowdown in the economy. They are not going to let a little inflation keep them from that goal, nor are they worried about the dollar. But won't that guarantee a repeat of the '70s and require a new Volker to come in and cause a deep recession to bring inflation back down? Are we trying to avoid a recession or only have a mild one today, just to have a major one forced on us in a few years? I don't think so. To understand why not, we have to look at just what inflation is and how it works its way into the economy. There are significant differences from the 70's and today. First, remember that Saint Milton Friedman taught us that inflation is anywhere and everywhere always a monetary phenomenon. Monetary inflation is different than rising prices. Monetary inflation can lead to price rises, but they are two different things. Some will raise the point that the money supply is growing rapidly, by some measures, but I would counter that by other measures it is not. And please do not suggest, as some do, that the soon-to-be $180 billion Term Auction Facility, by which the Fed provides liquidity to banks, is proof of monetary inflation. It is not. The Fed "sterilizes" the money they inject through the use of the TAF, so that while they inject money into banks, they take a similar amount from the economy as a whole. Over the last few years, we have had little growth in the base money supply, and certainly nothing to get worked up over. 最后发表：紫水晶	紫水晶 2008-3-4 07:39	11310	紫水晶 2008-3-4 07:44
明天涨息，股票会跌得更厉害吗？最后跟贴：涨息市场己消化了,除非涨0.5%.明天股市主要还是看今晚美股的走向. 最后发表：休	yvonnechan 2008-3-3 22:19	31328	休 2008-3-3 22:22
600332 - 广州药业 “王老吉”蠢蠢欲动最后跟贴：[attach]133733[/attach] 2008年3月3日星期一早盘 600332广州药业开始蠢蠢欲动，K线形成三连阳突破上攻走势........ 广州药业:蓄势完成,突破在即 ■天津中融广州药业(600332)大盘继续呈现弱势整理局面,市场人气也仍然萎靡,但是医药板块近几个交易日表现抢眼,龙头股浙江医药在14日封死涨停之后15日又上涨超过5 %,在其带动下,整个医药板块有整体启动的趋势,建议投资者可以关注(600332)广州药业:该股蓄势完成,即将展开突破. 中成药巨头公司是中成药龙头企业之一, 当前公司最有价值的资源是下属中成药生产企业的品牌资源,如王老吉,陈李济,潘高寿,敬修堂等,都是久负盛名的百年老店.公司生产的中药产品超过400种,有40个国家二级中药保护品种,其中包括消渴丸,华佗再造丸等20个独家产品.王老吉凉茶, 保济丸,乌鸡白凤丸,喉疾灵胶囊 ,补脾益肠丸,蜜炼川贝枇杷膏, 追风透骨丸,跌打万花油,消渴丸,华佗再造丸,夏桑菊等产品都是享誉华南,东南亚的知名产品,消渴丸,华佗再造丸,夏桑菊,王老吉凉茶等4个品种销售过亿, 其中消渴丸,华佗再造丸两个产品为市场独家产品.另外,清热消炎宁,蛇胆川贝枇杷膏,蜜炼川贝枇杷膏,治咳川贝枇杷膏等也是独家品种. 功能饮料概念独特 "王老吉"是一个具有170余年历史, 蜚声海内外的著名品牌,近年来"王老吉"品牌也是深入人心.公司已与肯德基合作, 借助肯德基品牌和网点资源来拓展市场,将其作为时尚饮料向全国乃至全球渗透.目前国内功能饮料市场非常大,估计50亿元左右,未来公司有志于将王老吉凉茶打造成中国草本第一品牌.公司参股48.05%的王老吉药业06年度, 07年上半年销售收入分别为6.62亿元,5.28亿元,其中王老吉清凉茶销售收入分别同比增长133.2%,105.21%.随着北京奥运的临近,这一中国传统的饮料有望再获新增长. 强势整理突破在即二级市场上, 该股在前期跟随大盘出现明显调整后,1月下旬以来一直构筑一整理平台, 主力介入程度深且实力强劲,而在近两日的医药股强劲上涨行情中,该股的上攻却相对有限,存在着强烈的补涨要求,值得投资者重点关注. 广州药业与联合博资合资 http://www.sina.com.cn 2008年02月27日 05:38 中国证券报-中证网　　□本报记者王成盛　　由广州药业（600332）与欧洲联合博资合资成立的广州医药有限公司昨日正式揭牌成立，新合资公司中联合博资出资5.45亿元，各持50％股份。这标志着中国加入WTO后医药流通领域规模最大合资项目顺利实施。　　作为合资对象，广州药业下属的广州医药有限公司目前是中国排名第四的医药批发商，2007年实现销售收入93.54亿元，在全国和广东省医药市场所占份额分别约3.6％和16.1％。　　据公司董事长杨荣明介绍，通过合资，广州医药公司可望改变以往依靠自身内在性增长的模式，通过内部增长与外部扩张组合发展的战略，争取在五年内由地区性公司发展成为医药批发国内龙头企业，国内医药市场占有率超过10％，广东省内市场占有率超20％的医药流通企业巨头。最后发表：Foreveryoung	Foreveryoung 2008-3-3 14:26	01753	Foreveryoung 2008-3-3 14:26
消费者的恐慌情绪正在蔓延最后跟贴：消费者的恐慌情绪正在蔓延 2008年03月03日09:36 如今的美国消费者是没有信仰的一群人，他们既不相信经济也不相信政府。他们担心的是他们的工作、正在贬值的房子、疲软的美元、要起债来毫不手软的贷款商、快要涨到4美元一加仑的汽油以及不知不觉中达到了14美元一杯的马提尼酒。就在上周，世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)消费者信心指数降到了2003年3月以来的最低水平，而那时是伊拉克战争开始之前。消费者的种种担忧和信贷市场的恐慌情绪正在蔓延开来。上周五美国股市大幅下挫，原因是那些憧憬着经济能够实现快速反弹的投资者发现，他们的信心在多个领域遭受严峻考验：信贷市场依旧混乱、大宗商品价格攀升，同时有更多证据表明美国经济正处于下滑之中。虽然上周不利的消息越来越多，但股市投资者还一度抱有一定信心。上周公布的经济数据当中，生产者价格指数(PPI)较上年同期上升了7.7%，为1981年以来最大的升幅；上一季度美国主要城市地区的房屋价格下降8.9%，为二十年以来的最大降幅。但在当周中期时，美国股市却并未受到太大影响。但到了上周五，不利影响开始显现。市场愈发担心如果债券保险商Ambac Financial的融资计划得不到支持可能会导致又一轮的银行冲减。一向以良好的风险管理自居的MF Global 在一次小麦期权交易中出现操作失误，并计入高额损失。这一消息震惊了投资者，并使得股市信心大挫。同时每桶原油接近103美元的价格令消费者的可支配收入受到影响，而戴尔公司(Dell) 第四财政季度利润下滑使得市场担心，企业支出可能也将有所放缓。由于担心企业裁员行动可能随之而来，投资者纷纷赶在本周月度就业数据公布之前进行获利回吐。上周五道琼斯指数重挫316点，创本年度以来的第二大单日跌幅，并抹去了本周早些时候的全部涨幅。当周，道琼斯指数收盘累计跌115点，至12,266点，跌幅0.9%；标准普尔500指数跌22点，至1331点，跌幅1.7%；那斯达克综合指数下滑32点，至2271点，跌幅1.4%；罗素2000小型股指数跌9点，至686点，跌幅1.3%。 2月份股市交易惨淡收场，几大主要基准指数连续第四个月宣告下挫。2月份道琼斯指数累计跌3%，标准普尔500指数跌3.5%，那斯达克指数跌5%，罗素2000小型股指数跌3.8%。本月标准普尔500指数出现自2002年夏季以来延续时间最长的一段月度下跌走势。导致市场出现这种黯淡情绪的原因何在？起初，股市给人一种有所好转的印象。如果不是上周五的那一次重挫，标准普尔500指数本周可能会实现过去六周以来的第五次上扬。随着股指与1月低点渐行渐远，各公司也越来越多地承受着来自投资者的压力。投资者希望公司方面能够证明经济放缓只是短暂的，而且放缓的程度也不深。然而上周不论是美国国际集团(American International Group Inc.)还是Titanium Metals的业绩都不如人意。美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)暗示将进一步减息，但这一表态并未给市场带来太大的安慰。Dwight Asset Management的首席经济策略师珍•凯龙(Jane Caron)表示，到目前为止，Fed所采取的措施未能对经济起到提振作用；长期借款利率已经从1月低点大幅上扬，同时金融信贷环境的紧张程度与Fed采取最新一轮减息措施之前并无明显差别。凯龙预计，Fed今年将把基准利率由目前的3%下调至1.75%，但这种做法也不能产生立竿见影的效果。因为只有当银行系统和信贷市场开始进一步恢复正常运转之后经济才能恢复增长。此外，一个神经紧张的市场需要更清楚地了解为债券提供担保的抵押品的情况，并对场外交易的对手风险了然于心。鉴于目前通货膨胀上升的速度超过了收入增长的速度，投资者对于经济前景也感到忧心忡忡。Lombard Street Research经济学家查尔斯•丹玛斯(Charles Dumas)表示，如果Fed的政策确实能够令经济免于陷入衰退，那么Fed将不得不再次采取严厉的紧缩措施，从而导致经济再次陷入更加不利的困境，1980年和1982年的情况就是前车之鉴。除了PPI飙升7.7%本身令人担忧以外，Natixis Bleichroeder技术分析师约翰•容克(John Roque)还发现其他一些更加可怕的现象：自从1947年以来，每当该指数升幅超过7%,它就会继续快速升高，直至最后达到9.9%（1948年7月）到19.5%（1974年11月）之间的水平。Fed主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)上周在国会(Congress)发表证词时表示，他预计通货膨胀压力将有所缓和。容克表示，贝南克的话从最终来看是对的，但在那之前通货膨胀首先会大幅上升。上周五金融类股的下挫既是一个昔日情景的重现同时也是一种预警：提醒投资者们金融类股依然是市场担心的焦点，此类股票今后还可能继续面临大幅振荡。随着次级抵押贷款的利率重设达到高峰，同时拯救债券保险商的举措进一步增强，置身于这一信贷周期的金融类股在未来数周可能还将进一步振荡。举例来说，高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师认为，特殊类抵押贷款最不利的状况还没有到来，其全部损失估计将在1,000亿美元。同时他们预计，如果房价继续下挫10%-12%，则将导致次级抵押贷款之外的其他抵押贷款品种出现更高的违约率。尽管银行和经纪商已经计入了高额损失，但不能排除有更多不利消息传出的可能。最后发表：大飞熊	大飞熊 2008-3-3 14:22	01156	大飞熊 2008-3-3 14:22
哪位大侠有这本书的PDF"Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" 最后跟贴：http://books.google.com.au/books ... oc_s&cad=1#PPP2,M1 最后发表：jaszhou	jaszhou 2008-2-28 17:01	31470	jaszhou 2008-3-3 11:42
新人请教炒外汇问题最后跟贴：偶新人一个，在澳洲这边请问用什么软件做外汇好点呢？最好发个链接看看先谢谢了最后发表：showen	showen 2008-3-2 18:08	01129	showen 2008-3-2 18:08
第一次做外汇,感觉比A股爽多了,哈哈最后跟贴：偶新人一个，请问用什么软件做外汇好点呢？最好发个链接看看多谢了最后发表：showen	5i1122 2007-12-21 22:28	122049	showen 2008-3-2 10:24
换汇有个很弱的问题请教大家最后跟贴：我也是等啊等，等它跌，可是从年头等到现在，只见涨，等的快要憋不住了。澳币咋这么高啊.呜呜呜呜呜呜呜呜........... 最后发表：zr_aust	苏苏 2007-8-13 13:49	111771	zr_aust 2008-3-1 15:09
巴菲特选股原则最后跟贴：股神不是近年都撤出股票市场了么，听说持有的现金越来越多~ 最后发表：kiddyzheng	紫水晶 2008-2-28 08:25	121985	kiddyzheng 2008-3-1 11:12
不要再怪中国平安了，看看是谁惹的祸，最震惊的消息！最后跟贴：多谢安远翔同学加分！正式开盘了，看盘去~~~~~~ 最后发表：Foreveryoung	Foreveryoung 2008-2-27 13:21	41611	Foreveryoung 2008-2-28 12:30