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How low will the dollar go? Credit Suisse has joined the downgrading bandwagon and cut its 12-month forecast to a rock-bottom 75 US cents.
That's one of the most bearish forecast around for the currency, at least among major banks. Credit Suisse sees the currency at 87 cents in three months.
'‘Our feeling remains that either the dollar will continue to fall naturally, or the RBA will need to give it another push with a further interest rate cut,’’ the bank's strategists wrote in a note to clients.
Orther analysts have also cut their projections.
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TD lowered its December 31 forecast to 90 US cents and said the Reserve BBank will cut interest rates this year, while Bank of America sees it at 89 US cents.
The dollar has fallen 13 per cent since April 4, the biggest drop among 31 major peers. It was buying 91.13 US cents this afternoon, after yesterday falling to a 34-month low of 90.37 US cents.
Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens said yesterday the economy will probably get a lower exchange rate if it needs it, a day after he kept borrowing costs at a record-low 2.75 per cent and said the inflation outlook provided scope for further reductions.
‘‘Our feeling remains that either the dollar will continue to fall naturally, or the RBA will need to give it another push with a further interest rate cut,’’ Credit Suisse strategists including Singapore-based Ray Farris wrote in a note to clients yesterday.
Bank of America said its forecast for a decline to 89 cents could prove optimistic if the slowdown in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, intensifies more than its analysts are expecting.
‘‘This forecast obviously does not assume a China hard landing,’’ said David Woo, the New York-based global head of rates and currencies at the bank. ‘‘This assumes that China is still growing probably somewhere around 7 per cent, but anything lower than that - and that’s clearly where the risk is - Aussie will be trading a lot lower.’’
TD Securities lowered its 2013 forecast for gross domestic product to 2.7 per cent from 3 per cent previously and now sees the overnight cash-rate target falling by another 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent by year end.
The bank also lowered its forecasts for the Aussie, saying it will fall to around 90 US cents by December 31 and trade from 85 to 90 US cents over 2014. TD previously estimated the currency would be at 96 cents at year’s end.
‘‘Australian growth has not been as robust as we expected,’’ Annette Beacher, Singapore-based head of Asia- Pacific research at TD Securities, said. ‘‘The RBA board’s insistence that the Australian dollar remains high despite the 10 big figure correction in recent months speaks to us that the bank is determined to assist the currency lower in any means possible.’’
BusinessDay, with Bloomberg
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/m ... .html#ixzz2Y3OQ2qf1 |
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【摄出你的足迹】摄影是一种爱好 (2013-1-12) williamlee137 
发表于 2013-6-29 04:59
